2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2431599 3-Mar-2020 10:03

Zepanda66:

Did anyone see the numbers stuff were reporting this morning? These seem way off. I thought deaths world wide were at 3,000?

Outside China, a total of 8739 cases of Covid-19 have been reported to WHO from 61 countries, with 127 deaths.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/119957218/coronavirus-cases-outside-of-china-nine-times-higher-we-are-in-uncharted-territory?

The 90,000 odd and 3000 odd are global, most of that is in China. The China situ is not very relevant now, travel is blocked, its now about other countries, whuch is what the article is referring to

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Fred99

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#2431605 3-Mar-2020 10:13

The article is out of date - it's clearly pandemic now with sustained person to person transmission in several countries.

Confirmed cases (excluding China) are now 10,275 cases and 174 deaths, and in 74 countries (including China - and counting Taiwan and China's SAR as separate countries).

frankv

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#2431609 3-Mar-2020 10:21

geekiegeek:

Seeing the comments coming out of Europe, the UK and US there is definitely a ramping up of severity. I think that behind the scenes governments know that this is about to take off in a direction that none are really prepared for. They have to keep talking it down somewhat or they would risk complete panic.

I think you're reading too much into it (but you may be right). I don't think that "governments know that this is about to take off in a direction that none are really prepared for". I think they're just aware that a panic is likely worse than the disease.

tdgeek

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#2431654 3-Mar-2020 10:30

frankv:

geekiegeek:

Seeing the comments coming out of Europe, the UK and US there is definitely a ramping up of severity. I think that behind the scenes governments know that this is about to take off in a direction that none are really prepared for. They have to keep talking it down somewhat or they would risk complete panic.

I think you're reading too much into it (but you may be right). I don't think that "governments know that this is about to take off in a direction that none are really prepared for". I think they're just aware that a panic is likely worse than the disease.

What type of panic? If they want to panic buy at the supermarket, go ahead. That happened for just one day. If people panic and get obsessed with staying at home more, self isolating more, handwashing more, then thats good news. The Govt isnt doing much, its up to us to protect ourselves, so a bit of panic that helps drive more cautious behaviour is not a bad thing. Personal quarantine works

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#2431660 3-Mar-2020 10:39

tdgeek:

What type of panic? If they want to panic buy at the supermarket, go ahead. That happened for just one day. If people panic and get obsessed with staying at home more, self isolating more, handwashing more, then thats good news. The Govt isnt doing much, its up to us to protect ourselves, so a bit of panic that helps drive more cautious behaviour is not a bad thing. Personal quarantine works

Panic buying is very unhelpful. If normal purchasing is practice then supply can be maintained. If selfish people buy up a years supply of hand sanitiser for example many many many folk cant do normal buying and the supply chain cannot cope. I don't blame the government for the panic that in my opinion lays squarely in the hands of our totally unprofessional clueless media. I saw a headline last week that in essence stated that 40% of the worlds population will be affected by COVID-19 however, diving deep into the article it was the opinion of one person with no corroborating analysis or evidence.

Fred99

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#2431661 3-Mar-2020 10:40

tdgeek:

If people panic and get obsessed with staying at home more, self isolating more, handwashing more, then thats good news.

But "for the economy" it isn't. That's full-on disaster for the hospitality, tourism industries etc.

The problem for government (and anybody else) is that forward projections are being made based on incomplete data, to make decisions based on risk analysis based on data which inevitably amplified errors.

You could use the data currently available to show that it's probably going to peter out into something not much worse than a new seasonal flu scenario - or that's it's going to be the once a century global pandemic like 2018-20.

tdgeek

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#2431664 3-Mar-2020 10:45

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

What type of panic? If they want to panic buy at the supermarket, go ahead. That happened for just one day. If people panic and get obsessed with staying at home more, self isolating more, handwashing more, then thats good news. The Govt isnt doing much, its up to us to protect ourselves, so a bit of panic that helps drive more cautious behaviour is not a bad thing. Personal quarantine works

Panic buying is very unhelpful. If normal purchasing is practice then supply can be maintained. If selfish people buy up a years supply of hand sanitiser for example many many many folk cant do normal buying and the supply chain cannot cope. I don't blame the government for the panic that in my opinion lays squarely in the hands of our totally unprofessional clueless media. I saw a headline last week that in essence stated that 40% of the worlds population will be affected by COVID-19 however, diving deep into the article it was the opinion of one person with no corroborating analysis or evidence.

I doubt panic buying will cause any grief. It lasted one day. You cant stop some people panic buying, its human nature for those that live their life by caution and safety to panic buy. Restrictions can be put in place on relevant products.

Fred99

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#2431665 3-Mar-2020 10:46

MikeB4:

I saw a headline last week that in essence stated that 40% of the worlds population will be affected by COVID-19 however, diving deep into the article it was the opinion of one person with no corroborating analysis or evidence.

Replace "will" with "could" - and it's a perfectly reasonable statement.

China didn't lock down >10% of the world's population without good reason.

tdgeek

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#2431669 3-Mar-2020 10:50

Fred99:

tdgeek:

If people panic and get obsessed with staying at home more, self isolating more, handwashing more, then thats good news.

But "for the economy" it isn't. That's full-on disaster for the hospitality, tourism industries etc.

The problem for government (and anybody else) is that forward projections are being made based on incomplete data, to make decisions based on risk analysis based on data which inevitably amplified errors.

You could use the data currently available to show that it's probably going to peter out into something not much worse than a new seasonal flu scenario - or that's it's going to be the once a century global pandemic like 2018-20.

The economy is a casualty, you cant help that. As was Katrina, and other weather events, as were earthquakes, and many other events locally and globally. As with GFC's. Everything will bounce back, it always has. As more info comes to light, more time goes by, things will slowly stabilise. Should China slowly get production onstream, that will help them and tghus the global ecomomy and us, the businesses here that sell Chinese goods.

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#2431674 3-Mar-2020 11:00

geekiegeek:

I'm not bothered with masks as they are pointless by all expert accounts so I'll just start making a habit of washing my hands multiple times per day.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2431675 3-Mar-2020 11:01

tdgeek:

The economy is a casualty, you cant help that. As was Katrina, and other weather events, as were earthquakes, and many other events locally and globally. As with GFC's. Everything will bounce back, it always has. As more info comes to light, more time goes by, things will slowly stabilise. Should China slowly get production onstream, that will help them and tghus the global ecomomy and us, the businesses here that sell Chinese goods.

Those natural disasters are limited events. Limited in terms of being isolated to areas, and limited in terms of time. Covid 19 could well become global, and could well continue as a rolling pandemic with significant incidence / death rate for years. We won't know if Remdesivir turns out to be an effective treatment until the clinical trails are over - IIRC that's months away. A vaccine is at least a year away.

tdgeek

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#2431683 3-Mar-2020 11:14

Fred99:

tdgeek:

The economy is a casualty, you cant help that. As was Katrina, and other weather events, as were earthquakes, and many other events locally and globally. As with GFC's. Everything will bounce back, it always has. As more info comes to light, more time goes by, things will slowly stabilise. Should China slowly get production onstream, that will help them and tghus the global ecomomy and us, the businesses here that sell Chinese goods.

Those natural disasters are limited events. Limited in terms of being isolated to areas, and limited in terms of time. Covid 19 could well become global, and could well continue as a rolling pandemic with significant incidence / death rate for years. We won't know if Remdesivir turns out to be an effective treatment until the clinical trails are over - IIRC that's months away. A vaccine is at least a year away.

Every other outbreak has burnt out or diluted itseof so it becomes part of the normal flu cycle. Why would this one be any different? Its been going for four months now. It was traced back to November. China seems to be containing it and China is not now affecting to any degree, anywhere else, so the other countires need to do their part as well, as Italy and France are doing. It will get worse before it gets better. When you look at a map, it looks shocking. If those infections maps had infection numbers, it better reflects where its going IMO. Seeing 90% of a map in one colour isnt correct

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#2431686 3-Mar-2020 11:20

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Fred99

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#2431687 3-Mar-2020 11:24

tdgeek:

Every other outbreak has burnt out or diluted itseof so it becomes part of the normal flu cycle. Why would this one be any different?

It's not.

"Spanish flu" was similar, now H1N1 is the seasonal flu. The process / pandemic where the disease "ran its course" was pretty ugly though - ~50 million deaths (countless - nobody knows the exact figure).

Most of the "mild" contagious diseases we humans get probably started in that way.

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#2431691 3-Mar-2020 11:32

I am in the high risk category and I get flu jabs each year, but I just can’t get excited about this. There are so many things that can kill you, and the older you get, the closer you come to the one that does you in.

Of course it is different for younger people, but apparently they are not high risk. I do believe in taking prudent precautions, but I am not going to make major lifestyle changes over this unless something changes in a big way. I just hope the shelves are not empty when I go to do my shopping. That would really annoy me.

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