2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2510530 23-Jun-2020 14:01

GV27:

Let me put my cynic's hat on:

"It does not serve the country well if it undermines the trust, confidence, compliance and cooperation and ‘kindness’ necessary for New Zealanders to work together against Covid-19."

It does not serve the country well to have a media that is not allowed to do anything but toe the line. It is not the media's job to foster a sense of political unity by not asking why things officials say are happening are not happening.

Forgive me if I am a little reluctant to take the word of a senior Wellington academic on why we should be nicer to the government. Maybe they could ask some people who lost their jobs or worked for severely reduced pay during lockdown what their thoughts about exposing the country to further risk because the media can't ask hard questions, and why they should accept government by slogan which diverges from reality to the extent it could mean we are exposed to another outbreak.

Who said the media isnt allowed. Or its about being nicer to the Govt? Im reluctant to take the word of a journo who sells ads, the latest big headline, todays doomsday article. No one is denying any faults, but the general theme here is that doomsday is here Level 4 is next week, the country is doomed. ORRRR that whoever owns the problem whoever manages the centres, its getting sorted if not already, and it hasnt resulted in thousands of infected people wandering the cafes.

You've made it 110% political, which was alreday obvious. No one is decrying anyone picking holes in anyone else. the Govt, Dr A, Mike Bush, Police Military, MoH they are all involved, blame who you like, that doesnt really matter. What matters is its been or being fixed, with no collateral damage

The employees you mention, where would they be when L4 ended after 2 weeks, Onto L2 soon after, bubbles with Australia. We would be screwed. because your concerns, valid as they are, would have let this thing go wild here. The so called border control would not exist , bubble heaven. Last weeks news has been bad, , but it didnt let the cat out of the bag or close to it, its sorted now, and once again, after a month, NZ cases = 0

I'll go with the academic

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concordnz

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#2510536 23-Jun-2020 14:13

mattwnz:
The other thing is according to Q&A last night, I heard health minister say that airlines are responsible for ensuring that people boarding their plane were well and not sick.

Why not fine airlines for each positive Covid case they bring in?

I agree there needs to be far more accountability / responsibility on Airlines to ensure people have a clear test/swab 'before' they board the plane.

(We did this with early repatriation flights - why was this stopped??)

Airline seem to have simply kicked the Can(& risk) on to the NZ Tax Payer.
& putting money wayyy ahead of NZ public safety.

From media reports AIRNZ's social distancing and people management is also decidedly substandard.

I also suggest Air crews need to be put of a rolling 3-day-on/3-days-off. With a clear test before they go back on again.
This limits the risk of them being a spreader of the virus to passengers & ensures we capture infected crew as promptly as possible.

On2or3wheels

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#2510537 23-Jun-2020 14:14

duckDecoy:

No. But I do trust the people who were in isolation and rang the radio stations to detail what they went through first hand. And I trust the doctors aboard the infected cruise ship who documented that 80% of positive cases were comletely asymptomatic. And I trust Sir Skegg who is fuming over how pathetic the isolation procedures were up until a few days ago.

The concerns people here are showing are not because they're raving sheeple who are being led around by their noses by the frothing MSM. They're concerned by the facts as to what was actually happening vs what we were told was happening.

It was only a few weeks ago people in Hotels were saying it's like a prison & the media were jumping all over it.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/im-not-surprised-some-people-have-tried-escape-1-news-reporter-realities-managed-isolation-in-auckland-hotel

freitasm

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#2510542 23-Jun-2020 14:24

Reality is that I don't trust our media in general. There's a "feel" of tabloid sensationalism on their articles. they keep repeating the same things over and over. Really not a great profile.

Did the government screw up quarantine? Yes.

Did the government manage to clean up COVID from the country internally? Yes.

We are in a much better position in terms of health than many other countries.

People have to give credit where it's due and ask for action where needed.

Those politicising this issues are just not helping.

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mattwnz

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#2510545 23-Jun-2020 14:26

Wander4821: New Zealand is having re-absorb large numbers of citizens from overseas all at once, as if there was some major war, in this case a major flu pandemic. 1 News did a brief bit describing cost of quarantine at $3000, though that is in addition to hypothetical future costs of stay.

With hypothetical future costs that is down to why they returned, the state of their finances, and whether they have qualifications beneficial to employers post Covid-19 pandemic, and of course how long they stay. If it is a short visit, there is a cost to the taxpayer, if the later then it could a short term cost for long term gain.

NZ has always had a brain drain, so the positive thing might be to convince skilled workers to come home for good and fill some shortages.

Though, a lot of folks returning regardless of having qualifications or not will be cash strapped due to global Covid-19 restrictions making it hard to work and earn more funds to live on prior to returning to NZ.

So the NZ taxpayer is in a hard place, both financially and morally on this. Effectively, it is hard in a moral sense to deny a NZ'er support when they've returned due to a tough situation out of their control. Then it is hard in a financial sense, as the costs of paying for all those returning people will add up, and even if user pays was introduced they'd likely not have the $3000 to spend after airfares and transit expenses.

Except ironically the shortages may now not be there now. It is either feast or famine.

We could impose a tax on the airline for each person they bring in, to cover the cost, which the airline then charge passengers. I know someone who was quoted 10s of thousands to return to their country from NZ by plane during the lockdown. Airlines IMO also should be doing more to protect travelers from spreading he virus on board, such as seat spaces between passengers, and also making sure noone sick is flying. If they are filling up planes, with all these peole in a confined area, then the virus has the potential to easily spread. Airlines were discussed on Q&A with the health minister

mattwnz

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#2510548 23-Jun-2020 14:29

freitasm:

Reality is that I don't trust our media in general. There's a "feel" of tabloid sensationalism on their articles. they keep repeating the same things over and over. Really not a great profile.

Did the government screw up quarantine? Yes.

Did the government manage to clean up COVID from the country internally? Yes.

We are in a much better position in terms of health than many other countries.

People have to give credit where it's due and ask for action where needed.

Those politicising this issues are just not helping.

Which is one of the problems with running an election campaign during a pandemic IMO. Each party will be looking at differentiating themselves from one another, to target certain voters, and are voicing their opinions.

xlinknz

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#2510549 23-Jun-2020 14:29

concordnz:
mattwnz:

The other thing is according to Q&A last night, I heard health minister say that airlines are responsible for ensuring that people boarding their plane were well and not sick.

Why not fine airlines for each positive Covid case they bring in?

I agree there needs to be far more accountability / responsibility on Airlines to ensure people have a clear test/swab 'before' they board the plane.

(We did this with early repatriation flights - why was this stopped??)

Airline seem to have simply kicked the Can(& risk) on to the NZ Tax Payer.
& putting money wayyy ahead of NZ public safety.

From media reports AIRNZ's social distancing and people management is also decidedly substandard.

I also suggest Air crews need to be put of a rolling 3-day-on/3-days-off. With a clear test before they go back on again.
This limits the risk of them being a spreader of the virus to passengers & ensures we capture infected crew as promptly as possible.

@concordnz my limited understanding is the plan was airnz aircrew cannot go back into the community without 14 isolation and testing, therefore the risk is effectively outside the border or to each other, where they stay etc. Whether this has been implemented I don't know, and importantly how is compliance of this is achieved unless it is based on a trust model...

I suspect we will hear more of airnz arrangements very soon

GV27

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#2510560 23-Jun-2020 14:49

tdgeek:

The employees you mention, where would they be when L4 ended after 2 weeks, Onto L2 soon after, bubbles with Australia. We would be screwed. because your concerns, valid as they are, would have let this thing go wild here. The so called border control would not exist , bubble heaven. Last weeks news has been bad, , but it didnt let the cat out of the bag or close to it, its sorted now, and once again, after a month, NZ cases = 0

I'll go with the academic

I'll go with the epidemiologist who says there's a real risk it could be in the community because people in quarantine weren't being tested properly. Nothing political about it:

"Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker agreed the pandemic's growth and the higher volumes of people flowing in were two big drivers.

But a third factor was that, before the test-all policy came in, some positive cases may never have been picked up, he said.

"We would've had people who were asymptomatic, or who had flu symptoms and didn't get tested, sitting in isolation or quarantine – and they just didn't become cases because they weren't tested."

While estimates varied, he said around 40 per cent of Covid-19 cases turned out to be asymptomatic.

"You could almost double the number of cases you'd detect in arrivals, if you'd been testing them all," he said."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=12341987

If we have no cases of CT (which we won't know until they hit a critical mass big enough to be picked up through sentinel testing or serious enough to warrant admitting to a hospital) then it's more through pure luck than credible competent administration.

tdgeek

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#2510570 23-Jun-2020 14:58

freitasm:

Reality is that I don't trust our media in general. There's a "feel" of tabloid sensationalism on their articles. they keep repeating the same things over and over. Really not a great profile.

Did the government screw up quarantine? Yes.

Did the government manage to clean up COVID from the country internally? Yes.

We are in a much better position in terms of health than many other countries.

People have to give credit where it's due and ask for action where needed.

Those politicising this issues are just not helping.

I noted today Dr A was relaxed. As if (and I'm just speculating) that the processes are fixed now, so he can stop fire fighting and get on with it. Whether its on his head or the Police or MoH in general thats another discussion, but we are back on track. He has been on the back foot while Jess etc hammer him but he is on top now, so behidmn that is that I feel he knows its locked down now, process wise.

concordnz

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#2510573 23-Jun-2020 15:00

xlinknz: my limited understanding is the plan was airnz aircrew cannot go back into the community without 14 isolation and testing, therefore the risk is effectively outside the border or to each other, where they stay etc. Whether this has been implemented I don't know, and importantly how is compliance of this is achieved unless it is based on a trust model...

I suspect we will hear more of airnz arrangements very soon

What's to stop an infected crew member, spreading it to numerous passengers on subquent flights?
Passengers could be clean prior to boarding the plane. But get infected by the crew (how do we know this hasn't already been happening?)

If AIRNZ are not 'regularly' testing Crew which are clearly high risk individuals (every time an infected person Flys in - they have exposed these crew members to increased virus loading)
By not testing - AIRNZ are failing to manage a high risk vector.

(It's not as though there is a shortage of flight crew available. ........) they could keep more employed and utilize a 3-on/3-off roster, with testing easily.

tdgeek

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#2510580 23-Jun-2020 15:09

GV27:

I'll go with the epidemiologist who says there's a real risk it could be in the community because people in quarantine weren't being tested properly. Nothing political about it:

"Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker agreed the pandemic's growth and the higher volumes of people flowing in were two big drivers.

But a third factor was that, before the test-all policy came in, some positive cases may never have been picked up, he said.

"We would've had people who were asymptomatic, or who had flu symptoms and didn't get tested, sitting in isolation or quarantine – and they just didn't become cases because they weren't tested."

While estimates varied, he said around 40 per cent of Covid-19 cases turned out to be asymptomatic.

"You could almost double the number of cases you'd detect in arrivals, if you'd been testing them all," he said."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=12341987

If we have no cases of CT (which we won't know until they hit a critical mass big enough to be picked up through sentinel testing or serious enough to warrant admitting to a hospital) then it's more through pure luck than credible competent administration.

Who do you believe? Take today, that was asked. The MAIN target is the 14 days, that also has some headroom he said. They will have symptoms in 14 days if they are infected. This is global guidance. Tests are an extra. If people have been there 14 days and no symptoms they are not infected.

We are testing all arrivals, 3 times. The previous was 0 test, then have symptoms then a test, same outcome. Bottom line is everyone who enters has no get out of jail free card

Its not luck its level 4. While these bungles were occuring the risk was low. The 2400 non tested has no symptoms after 14 days they exceeded the threshold

But no doubt for every world accepted guide, there is a person with a link to say its rubbish

Level 4 saved us. Sorry for those that said its too much, who should be in AUS now playing golf in the GC like I was planning, on the economy fixing travel bubble

GV27

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#2510585 23-Jun-2020 15:14

tdgeek:

Its not luck its level 4. While these bungles were occuring the risk was low. The 2400 non tested has no symptoms after 14 days they exceeded the threshold

Like I say, that's the real rub - if they're asymptomatic but were infected on day 7 then they could have conceivably got out there.

We won't know until it reaches a certain critical mass in the community given current testing is presumably mostly focused on inwards arrivals.

It's like having 10,000 parts on an F1 car and 99.9% of them being 100% reliable. It's the 0.01% that will leave you stranded (here's looking at you, McLaren Honda).

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#2510592 23-Jun-2020 15:23

tdgeek:

Who do you believe? Take today, that was asked. The MAIN target is the 14 days, that also has some headroom he said. They will have symptoms in 14 days if they are infected. This is global guidance. Tests are an extra. If people have been there 14 days and no symptoms they are not infected.

This is flat out untrue. It has been mentioned in this thread that covid carriers can be totally asymptomatic. In a previous comment I gave a link to the two doctors aboard the infected cruise liner that reported 80% of positive cases were asymptomatic. Tests are not extra, they are essential.

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#2510596 23-Jun-2020 15:28

GV27:

MikeB4:

@frankv "I disagree. The destruction of the economy is questionable" if that was a joke I am missing the punchline. A second round of Level 4- Level 3 lockdown would be a knockout blow. We would see widespread business closure, massive increase of unemployment, vastly reduced spending powers which of course causes more economic shrinkage, business closures and unemployment. Then the inevitable inability of the government to finance welfare, health, etc due to the rapidly reducing tax take.

Add in capital flight and brain drain when the borders do inevitably lift and you'll have a country that looks like NZ did thirty years ago instead of a modern civilized first-world country.

Certainly a second round of L4 would be far worse than the first round... the Govt put all its eggs into that basket, and doesn't have another $20bn to prop things up again. So I expect that the Government's minds are focused on prevention of another L4 now. But the country has been through worse than this, and worse than a second round of L4, and it survives. And other countries have gone through *far* worse and survived. So all this catastrophisation about "the country won't survive" is just nonsense. Likewise "the destruction of the economy". Certainly there will be changes. But there always are. So I continue to disagree.

Maybe there might be capital flight. But why isn't it happening right now? Although it's relatively difficult for people to leave NZ, it's not difficult to move your money. The NZ stock market hasn't collapsed. My Sharesies are worth more than beAnd maybe there might be a brain drain. But why not right now? If NZ is covid-free and [insert country] isn't, I'd expect an influx of people from there wanting to escape the 1 in 100 death lottery. And the people coming will be the wealthy, and we'll pick the brainiest. I believe we're seeing that already with Kiwis returning here rather than staying in Europe or the USA.

Whatever happens, NZ won't look like it did 30 years ago... things have irrevocably changed since then. We have the fibre infrastructure for the Internet, for example, and that's a game-changer. And, you know what, NZ wasn't so bad 30 years ago.

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#2510599 23-Jun-2020 15:32

so we should have been getting 1-2 cases a day when we had "zero" cases for the gazillion days prior to this week - would that be correct?

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