2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2514522 29-Jun-2020 15:32

kingdragonfly: As long as at the arrival gate Mike Hosking greets each non-citizen with a kiss on the mouth, I'm all for it.

Yep, someone whose views that don’t align with yours. But are you actually suggesting he should try and catch the virus?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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Fred99

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#2514538 29-Jun-2020 16:11

1101:

He does have 1 valid point , whats the long term plan. Do we even have one ?
Our boarders cant stay in lockdown forever & other countries are slowly accepting they will never be rid of it . So do we never open the boarders. Covid isnt going away .
Does our isolation make us more vulnerable to future Covid strains & mutations. NZ will have no 'herd immunity' at all.

The plan should be to keep the borders locked down for as long as possible - and wait.

Wait - because there's not enough information now to make a good decision which once made - would be irreversible, will kill people, and probably achieve no overall economic benefit. To quote Fred Dagg - "we don't know how lucky we are" - the economic and social impact of C-19 here is massively less bad than what's going on overseas. We can't avoid fallout from their economic horrors - which will spread.

It would be stupid to open up the borders and end up inevitably locking down to level 3/4 for extended periods - it'll do a damned sight more economic damage to the economy than loss of tourist and foreign student revenue. Certain politicians should zip their mouths - and defer to the experts.

There should be results from the "Oxford" vaccine phase 3 trials in a few months, there are others following. There are also small advances being made in treatment.

If we do have to "open up" prior to vaccine availability, then to minimise how many people this action would kill, it would need to be extremely carefully planned and well-managed - not opening up the floodgates to mass tourism etc. So business expecting this need to get used to the idea that they're screwed. If there's a possibility of trans-tasman bubble, NZ unilaterally opening up sabotages that - and Aus is by far our #1 source of foreign tourists.

vexxxboy

4229 posts

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#2514584 29-Jun-2020 16:20

Fred99:

1101:

He does have 1 valid point , whats the long term plan. Do we even have one ?
Our boarders cant stay in lockdown forever & other countries are slowly accepting they will never be rid of it . So do we never open the boarders. Covid isnt going away .
Does our isolation make us more vulnerable to future Covid strains & mutations. NZ will have no 'herd immunity' at all.

The plan should be to keep the borders locked down for as long as possible - and wait.

Wait - because there's not enough information now to make a good decision which once made - would be irreversible, will kill people, and probably achieve no overall economic benefit. To quote Fred Dagg - "we don't know how lucky we are" - the economic and social impact of C-19 here is massively less bad than what's going on overseas. We can't avoid fallout from their economic horrors - which will spread.

It would be stupid to open up the borders and end up inevitably locking down to level 3/4 for extended periods - it'll do a damned sight more economic damage to the economy than loss of tourist and foreign student revenue. Certain politicians should zip their mouths - and defer to the experts.

There should be results from the "Oxford" vaccine phase 3 trials in a few months, there are others following. There are also small advances being made in treatment.

If we do have to "open up" prior to vaccine availability, then to minimise how many people this action would kill, it would need to be extremely carefully planned and well-managed - not opening up the floodgates to mass tourism etc. So business expecting this need to get used to the idea that they're screwed. If there's a possibility of trans-tasman bubble, NZ unilaterally opening up sabotages that - and Aus is by far our #1 source of foreign tourists.

it's not just the vaccine being ready , it's all the infrastructure needed to administer the vaccine . for example there are not enough glass vials at present to transport the vaccine . nothing is ready and there are reports it may take up to 10 years to vaccinate everybody.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

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#2514633 29-Jun-2020 16:42

vexxxboy:

it's not just the vaccine being ready , it's all the infrastructure needed to administer the vaccine . for example there are not enough glass vials at present to transport the vaccine . nothing is ready and there are reports it may take up to 10 years to vaccinate everybody.

I've heard that - but I'd take it with a grain of salt. I believe Gates foundation has put billions into vaccine manufacture facilities in India, once approved, then they can start rolling out vaccine immediately, Corning (USA) has ramped up production of glass vials. China - who knows - but you saw how quickly they mobilised to build hospitals in Wuhan, I'm confident they'll do the same full effort on vaccine production.

I guess here, we'd roll out vaccine to the most susceptible groups first, as we kind of do with 'flu vaccine.

frankv

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#2514638 29-Jun-2020 16:47

mattwnz:

WHO have already said that there is no evidence of any long term immunity to the virus if you get it, and whether herd immunity will even work, or people could just keep catching it annually like a cold.

Except that, unlike colds, covid-19 kills about 1% of infections. If there's no immunity and no vaccine, you go into that lottery every year. And the risk increases with age; the CFR (Case Fatality Rate = probability of dying if you get the disease) is about 1% for age 50-59, and very broadly about doubles with each extra 10 years of age. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-by-age

So, some back of the envelope calculations -- for simplicity, I'll ignore the risks below age 50.

Assuming an annual return of the disease, a 50yo has about (10 years * 1%) =10% chance of dying of covid-19 before 60, a 60yo has about (10 * 2%) = 20% chance of dying before 70, and a 70yo has about (10 * 4%) = 40% chance of dying before 80. So, at age 50, your chance of of *not* dying of covid-19 before age 60 are 90%, before age 70 are (0.9 * 0.8) = 72%, and before 80 are (0.9 * 0.8 * 0.6) = 42%. Compare that to existing (UK, I expect NZ is similar) life expectancies pre-covid-19, where life expectancy at birth is 81.1. So, instead of reaching 81.1, well over half of people will die of covid-19.

https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#all-charts-preview (Side note: it's interesting in this graph to see the effect of the Spanish flu and WW2, and (I guess) penicillin post-WW2)

Of course, there's no particular reason to think covid-19 will be an annual thing... it could come back every 6 months or so. And, if you've had it once and have lung damage, you're probably more likely to die if you get it again.

On a more positive note, we are learning how to treat covid-19, so the CFR should fall.

wellygary

8171 posts

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#2514644 29-Jun-2020 17:07

mattwnz:

WHO have already said that there is no evidence of any long term immunity to the virus if you get it, and whether herd immunity will even work, or people could just keep catching it annually like a cold.

But the disease has only been in the population for 6 months, so its really impossible to tell whether reinfection is possible over the long term...

What is interesting are the reports that more recent infections appear to be less prone to fatality.. now whether this is due to better treatment, or other reasons is not clear,

But looking at Global daily infections, vs global daily deaths their does appear to be a disconnect (...yes I am aware a fatality may be much later than infection) ..

https://covid19.who.int/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6M20iKCm6gIV2ARyCh1HqgA1EAAYASAAEgJucfD_BwE

robjg63

4074 posts

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#2514645 29-Jun-2020 17:07

Fred99:
1101:

He does have 1 valid point , whats the long term plan. Do we even have one ?
Our boarders cant stay in lockdown forever & other countries are slowly accepting they will never be rid of it . So do we never open the boarders. Covid isnt going away .
Does our isolation make us more vulnerable to future Covid strains & mutations. NZ will have no 'herd immunity' at all.

The plan should be to keep the borders locked down for as long as possible - and wait.

Wait - because there's not enough information now to make a good decision which once made - would be irreversible, will kill people, and probably achieve no overall economic benefit. To quote Fred Dagg - "we don't know how lucky we are" - the economic and social impact of C-19 here is massively less bad than what's going on overseas. We can't avoid fallout from their economic horrors - which will spread.

It would be stupid to open up the borders and end up inevitably locking down to level 3/4 for extended periods - it'll do a damned sight more economic damage to the economy than loss of tourist and foreign student revenue. Certain politicians should zip their mouths - and defer to the experts.

There should be results from the "Oxford" vaccine phase 3 trials in a few months, there are others following. There are also small advances being made in treatment.

If we do have to "open up" prior to vaccine availability, then to minimise how many people this action would kill, it would need to be extremely carefully planned and well-managed - not opening up the floodgates to mass tourism etc. So business expecting this need to get used to the idea that they're screwed. If there's a possibility of trans-tasman bubble, NZ unilaterally opening up sabotages that - and Aus is by far our #1 source of foreign tourists.

Amen to fred99.

To be honest covid-19 has been around for such a comparatively short time that no one *should* have a long term plan apart from trying to avoid it. It's still evolving an not getting better overseas. There are some suggestions there is no long term immunity once someone has had the virus - So there isn't great proof of long term herd immunity. There are new side effects and damage from the virus being discovered every few days.
We should watch and wait and ignore the political grandstanding.

Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself - A. H. Weiler

nzkiwiman

2585 posts

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#2514651 29-Jun-2020 17:14

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/watch-ardern-says-govt-considering-stay-your-room-order

The Government was looking into the legalities to require new arrivals to stay in their rooms for the first three days of their stay in their facilities, Ardern said.

Ardern also said she would like to see people charged in the near future if they chose to leave New Zealand and then get free isolation upon their return.

I hope something comes from those two points.

tdgeek

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#2514653 29-Jun-2020 17:21

nzkiwiman:

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/watch-ardern-says-govt-considering-stay-your-room-order

The Government was looking into the legalities to require new arrivals to stay in their rooms for the first three days of their stay in their facilities, Ardern said.

Ardern also said she would like to see people charged in the near future if they chose to leave New Zealand and then get free isolation upon their return.

I hope something comes from those two points.

Totally fair. Using common sense as a guide, Kiwis would revolt if that did not happen, and righty so. I have zero issue with Kiwis coming home. Its their right. But not those that "used" this for their holidays.

mattwnz

20003 posts

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#2514657 29-Jun-2020 17:32

vexxxboy:

it's not just the vaccine being ready , it's all the infrastructure needed to administer the vaccine . for example there are not enough glass vials at present to transport the vaccine . nothing is ready and there are reports it may take up to 10 years to vaccinate everybody.

That is all part in parcel with the vaccine being ready. I read an article that WHO reckons that it will be 5 years, but I suspect a lot of those people will be in third world countries, who may end up getting it last.

tdgeek

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#2514659 29-Jun-2020 17:39

mattwnz:

vexxxboy:

it's not just the vaccine being ready , it's all the infrastructure needed to administer the vaccine . for example there are not enough glass vials at present to transport the vaccine . nothing is ready and there are reports it may take up to 10 years to vaccinate everybody.

That is all part in parcel with the vaccine being ready. I read an article that WHO reckons that it will be 5 years, but I suspect a lot of those people will be in third world countries, who may end up getting it last.

Doesnt matter, we apparently need our borders to open

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300044787/todd-muller-says-keeping-nz-border-shut-is-untenable-jacinda-ardern-says-opening-up-any-time-soon-is-dangerous

"He said he didn't know exactly how this would work but he wanted some sort of clarity from the Government about their plan to open up." So he wants clarity from he Govt on his idea but he has no clue as to how?

ezbee

2337 posts

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#2514671 29-Jun-2020 17:43

fred99 is onto it.

We are not saying its 'forever', its for long enough to make better decisions.
Time buys us knowledge of better treatments , get people recovered quicker, death and long term injury rate down.
Not all the guessing about drug of the day and best way to use it before data is in.
Time to understand the full butchers bill, plus any long term and other effects for survivors we have to account for in weighing decision.
Time for the 100 or more Vaccine efforts to progress further, so we can see how promising this is, and all the aspects of it.
Time for other efforts on antibody treatments.
Time for better faster more accurate tests , that might give us a better system to manage covid.
Time to get more PPE , to open to covid with controlled infection rate, you need many times more of it , preferably not counterfeit.
Its not like we have our own Blown Fibre and PPE plants, to any significant degree.

On immunity,
What we have seen so far is a results in too low % of any population infected to have true heard immunity, a term more used in reference to vaccination.
China is sure not counting on it. Maybe they know something ? We need a bit more time to see, if they do or don't.
Singapore is putting huge resource into eradication path , Taiwan , Vietnam, have eradicated it seems , Hong Kong looking to maintain that, so what do they know ?
Even Italy did not get there , so we need to get infected more comprehensively than them , it will not be a walk in the park.
Sweden is grinding it out and nowhere near it , how long , who knows, infection curve is steepening, and their economy still suffers all along this path.
How does our health system capability , and depth of pockets compare with theirs , I expect we are a way poorer cousin ?
Actually our strategy is relatively low cost on medical services if you don't have to monitor and treat a whole population of covid cases.
Who is going to party like its 1999 while all that's going on, anyway.
Ask your Doctor and their practice nurse if they would hang around for that ride.

Further to Party like its 1999 , well in NZ you can literally do that now . Many places you can't.

TeaLeaf

6247 posts

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#2514677 29-Jun-2020 17:52

Is it true people were or are receiving more money due to job loss than those already on benefits?

If so I find that extremely prejidous and irrelevant, unemployment rates should not be adjusting benefits.

And I heard people whinging about not being able to get benefits due to partners earning to much, suck it up cup cake I say, thats been WINZ for a long time now, even for those on what was called a Medical Benefit, now its just called the same thing but defined as due to health. I expect a major surge in this due to mental health.

If this is true it is totally RANK ! So sick of people calling people on benefits dole bludgers, or snipes like, I work so others dont have to. And now you dont have to you get paid twice as much and dont even have to use your cash reserves first? .... UP!

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/417608/covid-19-unemployment-pay-real-kick-in-the-gut-beneficiaries-say

Also if you have cash and lose your job, of course you have to use that before gaining a benefit, has been that way for a long time. That has not changed I hope? I spent $200k in AU cash before being told my new partner earnt too much for me to claim a medicinal benefit. Total assett discrimination, but changing it now would be entirely unfair on those at the mercy of a system designed to avoid paying as much money as possible, not as bad as ACC but close. I was stupid, had I bought a Unit in Devonport for $350k with the $200k deposit, I could have claimed a benefit and it would be worth ~$1m now. I believe to be fair house owners should be forced to liquidate all assetts regardless, before receiving a benefit, to be fair to those whose life savings are in shares, gold, whatever it might be. Luckily they cannot touch my AU Super. They would if they could.

Lastly has Covid impacted your income? Has it produced any depression yet dealing with WINZ?

mattwnz

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#2514681 29-Jun-2020 17:56

tdgeek:

Doesnt matter, we apparently need our borders to open

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300044787/todd-muller-says-keeping-nz-border-shut-is-untenable-jacinda-ardern-says-opening-up-any-time-soon-is-dangerous

"He said he didn't know exactly how this would work but he wanted some sort of clarity from the Government about their plan to open up." So he wants clarity from he Govt on his idea but he has no clue as to how?

LOL... Reminds me of a little kid in the back of the car saying 'are we there yet' ....'why aren't we there yet'...

He doesn't know how they will do it. Well until he does, wouldn't it be better to just listen to the experts and stop complaining? Doesn't he realise that the virus is raging outside the border? There is no way to prove someone is COVID free from overseas, without quarantining.

Potentially our borders are already open for many people to come back, it just requires people to quarantine, which is just people sacrificing a bit of time, which they could use to upskill.

Scott3

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#2514684 29-Jun-2020 17:59

tdgeek:

Doesn't matter, we apparently need our borders to open

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300044787/todd-muller-says-keeping-nz-border-shut-is-untenable-jacinda-ardern-says-opening-up-any-time-soon-is-dangerous

"He said he didn't know exactly how this would work but he wanted some sort of clarity from the Government about their plan to open up." So he wants clarity from he Govt on his idea but he has no clue as to how?

The headline is a misquote of the leader of the opposition. His actual quote specifically mentions "long term".

I don't think anybody thinks the borders will be closed long term. We should be able to re-open quickly if one of the following happens:

An effective test for pre-symptomatic carriers comes onto the market.
A highly effective vaccine (if short lasting) is released, so we are confident those vaccinated say 3-10 weeks ago are not carriers.
A reasonably effective treatment is found
A somewhat effective vaccine is released, and distributed to our local population.

Top two will allow us to screen people in transit, avoiding isolation.

Last two massively reduce the consequences of letting covid-19 loose in our population

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