2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2515586 1-Jul-2020 10:44

freitasm:

KrazyKid: Melbourne locking down 10 postcodes (suburbs) as of midnight tomorrow.

Can only leave home for food and essentials, work, school or medical reasons.

"Light" lockdown - work?

From memory this is pretty much what Aussie did last lockdown. Except last time they closed schools as well.
Retail etc was allowed to stay open, but had limits of people per square meter (1 person per 4 m2 I think).
A lot of larger shops decided it was un-economic to open with so few customers and closed at that point.

It will be interesting to see how compliant people are the second time around.
Police will be patrolling with the power to issue spot fines, and there will be some stops on some roads by police to ask why you are leaving.
(Of course he answer will be work/school/shopping :) )

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ezbee

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#2515597 1-Jul-2020 11:12

Australia will show us if postcode lock-down can work , in a week to two we will know.
Looks like we were not the only ones to have issues around managing returnees.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/victoria-coronavirus-hotel-quarantine-how-did-we-get-here/12408256

""
But the leader of the Opposition in Victoria, Michael O'Brien, said Victoria's use of private contractors to staff hotels contributed to the "disaster" in the state.

"New South Wales has used police and have used the ADF to secure their hotel quarantines. Victoria hasn't," he said.

"Victoria has used poorly-trained, lowly-paid, private security companies.

"Frankly it has been a mess and now the Government has admitted it has been the hotel quarantine failures which have led to a second outbreak."
""

Though I did see something that suggested the outbreak also had other sources , so Hotel may not be sole candidate..

Its hard to see as data sites I looked at did not report returning cases separately to local, but how long was Victoria covid free re local transmission before they raised their lockdown ?
This might indicate the likely-hood that there was local transmission all along.

Hopefully they can recover, and we don't have anyone going bush and taking long trips over state boarder.
In USA 1 person in a bar and over 100 cases , then there was Matamata , does not take much.

robjg63

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#2515619 1-Jul-2020 12:11

Mike (I'm a smug git) Hosking is still banging on again today about how the government needs a plan to re-open the border.

He is a real cracked record - I am sure they will have kicked around some plans - But it would be totally futile to even voice anything about it at the moment as there is nothing solid to base any plans on yet.

He just wants someone to say something so he can then whinge like hell when it doesnt happen.

Why does this guy get airspace?

Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself - A. H. Weiler

Geektastic

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#2515621 1-Jul-2020 12:15

robjg63:

Mike (I'm a smug git) Hosking is still banging on again today about how the government needs a plan to re-open the border.

He is a real cracked record - I am sure they will have kicked around some plans - But it would be totally futile to even voice anything about it at the moment as there is nothing solid to base any plans on yet.

He just wants someone to say something so he can then whinge like hell when it doesnt happen.

Why does this guy get airspace?

I disagree.

We do need a plan - badly. We will suffer hugely both economically and mentally if we do not figure it out. The government at the very least needs to publish clear conditions, in a single document, that must be met in order for the border to be open.

Dingbatt

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#2515631 1-Jul-2020 12:51

Geektastic:

robjg63:

Mike (I'm a smug git) Hosking is still banging on again today about how the government needs a plan to re-open the border.

He is a real cracked record - I am sure they will have kicked around some plans - But it would be totally futile to even voice anything about it at the moment as there is nothing solid to base any plans on yet.

He just wants someone to say something so he can then whinge like hell when it doesnt happen.

Why does this guy get airspace?

I disagree.

We do need a plan - badly. We will suffer hugely both economically and mentally if we do not figure it out. The government at the very least needs to publish clear conditions, in a single document, that must be met in order for the border to be open.

I agree (with your disagreement). For people who are impacted by the border closure, some information about what conditions are required before restrictions can be eased and then removed would be good. If it is that the pandemic has to be over, either by burning out or deployment of a vaccine (a scale of years not months), then so be it, but at least people would be able to plan for things not to improve and pivot their businesses.
The PM is at pains to point out that there is no playbook for this event. But it is evident that it is being made up as they go along.

And to answer the bolded question above. He gets airspace (airtime) because he is the number one rated radio host in NZ.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

tdgeek

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#2515632 1-Jul-2020 12:59

Geektastic:

I disagree.

We do need a plan - badly. We will suffer hugely both economically and mentally if we do not figure it out. The government at the very least needs to publish clear conditions, in a single document, that must be met in order for the border to be open.

Well, what is the plan? Surely you have one, its obvious isn't it? Hoskings doesn't have one, Muller doesn't have one. Until there is a way to do a 99.99% reliable test in 60 minutes, there is no other way than to bubble with countries in NZ's position. We all know thats VERY obvious.And that it doesnt exist right now.

The continual banging on about this is just politics. Everyone wants a bubble, everyone wants the economy back on track. But one minute its whining about our poor border, then whining about why isnt it open, its ridiculous. If you look at Victoria now, and imagine we got the bubble weeks ago when certain people wanted it, we would also be heading for Level 4 tomorrow midnight. So a few weeks of tourism, partly offset by our revenue dollars hopping to Australia, new everyone here would again be locked down. Thats extremely short sighted.

If there was no election..... no issue. Its obvious that to keep "an" economy, you don't go to lockdown. Labour can't make the virus go away in other counties . neither can National. not even Mother Theresa if she were alive. Those that want tourists here, they must be ok with the virus being here, and also believe it wont matter too much. Thats not only dicing with death, its dicing with our economy.

tdgeek

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#2515633 1-Jul-2020 13:05

Dingbatt:

I agree (with your disagreement). For people who are impacted by the border closure, some information about what conditions are required before restrictions can be eased and then removed would be good. If it is that the pandemic has to be over, either by burning out or deployment of a vaccine (a scale of years not months), then so be it, but at least people would be able to plan for things not to improve and pivot their businesses.
The PM is at pains to point out that there is no playbook for this event. But it is evident that it is being made up as they go along.

Australia has the same issue we have/had. Poor border controls. I guess that means that as well as NZ having no clue, neither did AUS. It might also be some evidence that its not as easy as many make it out to be.

I think the plan has been stated for some time. When there is evidence that CT is low or gone. PM indicated ages ago she's looking at Sept. Thats no secret. Unsure why the Opposition leader says it will be 12-18 months, why did he say that? Had Victoria not gone backwards, September would seem very feasible.

What measures would you see as adequate for a bubble to open?

robjg63

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#2515634 1-Jul-2020 13:09

I don't see how anyone can make a "plan" based on the uncertainties at the moment.
At best you could make a woolly set of aspirations.
What use is that?

Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself - A. H. Weiler

Oblivian

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#2515635 1-Jul-2020 13:10

1-7 0 Reported

He again put little ol NZ into context. Estimated potential for 11,000/day in the US now. NZ capita equiv of 1500/day. More than total.

Scary.

MikeB4

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#2515640 1-Jul-2020 13:18

Geektastic:

I disagree.

We do need a plan - badly. We will suffer hugely both economically and mentally if we do not figure it out. The government at the very least needs to publish clear conditions, in a single document, that must be met in order for the border to be open.

It needs a simple plan but that would require more intelligence than Mike Hoskings can muster.

1. Allow vetted freight in.

2. Allow freight out.

3. Allow returning Kiwis in and isolate.

4. Keep the borders closed until the rest of the world has got their act together.

The cost of this I am sure is considerably lower than the risk and cost of opening the borders prematurely and allow the virus back in. A further level four lock down would be a death blow to the economy.

tdgeek

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#2515642 1-Jul-2020 13:25

robjg63: I don't see how anyone can make a "plan" based on the uncertainties at the moment.
At best you could make a woolly set of aspirations.
What use is that?

Sums it up succinctly.

If there were possible plans, we would hear about them from the media, the number of medical people not directly involved but who have been in the media, the Opposition, and anyone else, but no one has put forward a plan. Because there is no vaccine and because there is no 60 minute test available which would allow flights in. Its patently obvious to anyone, surely.

tdgeek

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#2515643 1-Jul-2020 13:27

MikeB4:

It needs a simple plan but that would require more intelligence than Mike Hoskings can muster.

1. Allow vetted freight in.

2. Allow freight out.

3. Allow returning Kiwis in and isolate.

4. Keep the borders closed until the rest of the world has got their act together.

The cost of this I am sure is considerably lower than the risk and cost of opening the borders prematurely and allow the virus back in. A further level four lock down would be a death blow to the economy.

That not only a good plan, its the only option we have, and its in place.

Batman

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#2515649 1-Jul-2020 13:40

I have a feeling our elections will be down to one thing

close border - vote a certain party

open border - vote a certain party

lol

Batman

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#2515651 1-Jul-2020 13:42

Oblivian:

1-7 0 Reported

He again put little ol NZ into context. Estimated potential for 11,000/day in the US now. NZ capita equiv of 1500/day. More than total.

Scary.

"there were still 367 people that had been through managed isolation who were unable to be contacted by health authorities. He made a fresh appeal for anyone in that group to phone Healthline."

do you know what that means?

ezbee

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#2515653 1-Jul-2020 13:50

No plan survives first contact with the enemy.

It would be good to see more on evolving options.
However more like the 'pirate code as laid down by....' It would need to be more 'guidelines'.

Firm plan ?.

Even Todd Muller is somewhat vague re details on how we would open up now and to exactly whom and under what conditons.
He is very sure we can go now, so where is his detailed plan, seeing he is ready to go now?

Looking at Australia , even slicing by state ( Noting there is limited interstate travel and cases of internal self isolation being violated ).
Ignoring that , Australian Government is not on board their timetable is further out.
It seems the Aussie Government is not up to letting each state go their own way. Interstate rivalry and pride being what it is.
So Australia can't go now, where else ?

Then there is infrastructure to support.
Managing Hotels turned out not to be so easy, so I expect its one foot in front of the other time.
Walk before your run and all that.
Cost of getting it wrong are not just big, but really big.......

Blackadder always had a plan, there is the complete compendium of plans below :-)
"I’ve got a plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel."

https://blackadderquotes.com/i-have-a-cunning-plan

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