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  #2515845 1-Jul-2020 17:21
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frankv:

Geektastic:


We do need a plan - badly. We will suffer hugely both economically and mentally if we do not figure it out. The government at the very least needs to publish clear conditions, in a single document, that must be met in order for the border to be open.



We're in a liferaft in a raging storm. The plan at the moment is to keep the liferaft afloat. Asking for a plan of how we can tie up to another ship is ridiculous. Especially since we don't know whether that ship will be afloat or not.


 



That does not prevent you from publishing the criteria you will accept, now does it?

If you do not know where you are going, how will you know if you have arrived?





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  #2515859 1-Jul-2020 18:07
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This article annoyed me. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/1256268/dont-make-kiwis-pay-for-quarantine Not the headline, but someone of the points in it. I think we have already proven we couldn't trust people to self isolate. The PM even said it herself, some people just didn't do it. And how can you stop someone visiting someone in self isolation? 

 

Also the author claims that new cases were declining in level 2 prior to the lockdown. But didn't new cases only start declining at least several weeks into level 4 lockdown? . I wonder if this was fact checked.  It is just an odd article.


 
 
 
 


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  #2515865 1-Jul-2020 18:32
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It's not a news article it's an opinion piece.

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  #2515866 1-Jul-2020 18:36
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Geektastic:

That does not prevent you from publishing the criteria you will accept, now does it?

If you do not know where you are going, how will you know if you have arrived?

 

We do know where we are going. Covid free NZ. Followed be interacting with bubbles with like minded countries. No one knows when bubbles can occur. PM suggested some time ago, Sept. Seems quite possible.

 

No one has been able to put forward a means for bubbles now. What's your criteria to allow bubbles to occur now?


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  #2515871 1-Jul-2020 18:46
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Handle9: It's not a news article it's an opinion piece.

 

Yes - written by a Professor of "Experimental Economics". 

 

An extract from his article:

 

 

Furthermore, the idea of quarantine itself is based on faulty premises.

 

First, New Zealand is a high-trust society. It would be fine to request people to self-isolate.

 

 

He should stick to something he knows about - which might be interesting, but about as practically useful as "experimental weather forecasting" would be for sailing around Cape Horn.


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  #2515872 1-Jul-2020 18:51
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Geektastic:

That does not prevent you from publishing the criteria you will accept, now does it?

If you do not know where you are going, how will you know if you have arrived?

 

Experts will say we're safe. 


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  #2515886 1-Jul-2020 19:35
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Fred99:

 

He should stick to something he knows about - which might be interesting, but about as practically useful as "experimental weather forecasting" would be for sailing around Cape Horn.

 

 

That logic doesn't seem to bother anyone in this thread.


 
 
 
 


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  #2515895 1-Jul-2020 20:13
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mattwnz the Newsroom opinion thing.

 

Oh my, the whole tone of this, Ananish Chaudhuri seems to be a full on Swedish convert.
"As is becoming clear now, elimination is not and never was a realistic goal."

 

Trust....
Oh first night of the self-isolation, TV interviewed an arrival who gave a cheaky smile and said no he was just going back to life as normal.
It was not atypical , but they got this one on camera.
We had the nutter who invited himself into his tenants flat , and had to be removed by police and promptly did it again.
367 people who gave us dodgy contact details and emergency contact , many ignored texts etc. 
Two people take a car the long way to Wellington and don't remember who they had contact with on the way.
Testing refusals.
People go to a gang funeral and decide to leave some of their party behind, did they keep social distance at funeral, who knows ?
That's only the ones we know about.
I'm sure there are many others. 

 

Cases already going down in Level 2 ?
Graph below filched from the data analysis thread with Level 4 transition. Its per Million comparison, but shows trend , its only local cases.
He must have been living somewhere else, well surely not Sweden their slope is increasing ?. 

 

 

Opinion ok everyone has one , but may a bit of a fact check warning. 


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  #2515905 1-Jul-2020 20:49
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ezbee:

 

Trust....
Oh first night of the self-isolation, TV interviewed an arrival who gave a cheaky smile and said no he was just going back to life as normal.

 

 

This is the kind of thing that really, really p*sses me off with some academics.

 

Experimental economics *must* require understanding of sociology - surely.  The whole freaking point of "economics" is closely related to behavioural science.  What's the point of money, production of stuff, whatever - except to provide safety and comfort to human beings? So how humans behave is fundamental to how the whole thing works (or not).  Combine it with a basic understanding of the arithmetic of epidemiology, and it's pretty obvious that one dickhead can cause a pandemic.

 

I'm sure he's a hell of nice guy.  I really do like people who've got hugely optimistic faith that all fellow humans will behave selflessly - it offsets the pessimistic view that I've acquired through 1/2 century of observation - that some people are selfish, thoughtless dicks.

 

But there it is - someone with (presumably) a PhD in the Dismal Science just doesn't get it, but is happy to express an opinion when (and because) of his "qualification" - it ends up in print.

 

 


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  #2515955 2-Jul-2020 07:02
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Fred99:

Geektastic:

That does not prevent you from publishing the criteria you will accept, now does it?

If you do not know where you are going, how will you know if you have arrived?


Experts will say we're safe. 



And what criteria are the experts using?

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  #2515963 2-Jul-2020 07:52
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Well the Deputy Prime Minister was just interviewed on the radio (NewstalkZB) and said ‘supplying’ (my term) countries need to be at zero community transmission before our borders would be open to them. When pressed on the Cook Islands (zero known cases) he said we had to protect them and make sure ‘systems’ were in place.

 

The big take out from the interview for me is he’s pinning his hopes on a vaccine being imminent and NZ will have early access to it.





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  #2515981 2-Jul-2020 08:53
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I'm not telling anyone reading this forum anything new.

No vaccine has ever been approved for use against previous forms of coronavirus.

If you google "vaccine never developed" you'll find plenty of reputable experts with a dismal outlook.

Some experts have stated the world may have to learn to live with the constant threat of COVID-19.

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  #2515985 2-Jul-2020 09:06
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kingdragonfly: I'm not telling anyone reading this forum anything new.

No vaccine has ever been approved for use against previous forms of coronavirus.

If you google "vaccine never developed" you'll find plenty of reputable experts with a dismal outlook.

Some experts have stated the world may have to learn to live with the constant threat of COVID-19.

 

Suggest you let the DPM know.





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  #2515990 2-Jul-2020 09:21
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Dingbatt:

 

The big take out from the interview for me is he’s pinning his hopes on a vaccine being imminent and NZ will have early access to it.

 

 

Surely he jests...

 

If there is a vaccine developed demand will outstrip supply for at least 12-18 months until production capacity increases,

 

Surely from a global health perspective its going to be used first in countries with large outbreaks and low public health capacities (Latin America, India, Africa etc), rather than in a small high income country with a developed heath system and no current community transmission....

 

 


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  #2515997 2-Jul-2020 09:36
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I'm quite confident there'll be an effective vaccine sooner rather than later (ie maybe 2021 - not 4 years).  The immune response from the "Oxford" trial looks pretty good so far, and it's safe.  Even if efficacy is only similar to flu vaccines, it'll be very useful.
The Chinese have "volunteered" some of their army to be vaccinated with a candidate vaccine that had only passed phase 2 clinical trials - it "should" be safe - but if it isn't I guess we won't be hearing too much about it.  Unless the Chinese troops are operating in an area where there's a high risk of contracting C-19, then it would be slow to produce results, they could bypass that by getting vaccinated "volunteers" to extend their generosity by getting them to "volunteer" to be exposed to the virus.  Worse things have been done within living memory in supposedly democratic "free" nations.

 

 


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