2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2516350 2-Jul-2020 17:55

tdgeek:

Historically, AUS has over 10% CT. Most of the current VIC cases are CT. They did well with less lockdown than us, but as we see, if you have just 10% CT you can never really eradicate it. You can only manage it. And when they then go to even looser lockdown, hosts are aplenty.

They are still blaming some of the the outbreak on security guards at quarantine hotels https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coronavirus-updates-victoria-records-77-new-cases-mostly-in-hot-zones-20200702-p558b3.html

Maybe it is a political thing?

They are also blaming schools, with child to child transmissions. IMO schools have always been an area of concern for me with this virus and how it is transferred in community.

The question is, financially which leaves regions financially better off long term? Is it better to live a normal life with the virus eliminated, which has an initial higher cost? eg $100 billion per 5 million people. Or to only suppress the virus, with weaker lockdowns, which still has a big initial financial cost, but also an ongoing cost, although things remain more open and then to go in and out of lockdowns to control it?

Also remembering that a vaccine or effective treatment may be years off. Some businesses can't operate in a socially distanced environment, as it is not financially viable, and there are so many knock on effects that can cause. Also in terms of mental health, living with the virus in the community, and always fearing getting it , and needing to wear masks etc, IMO isn't good either.

IMO this also goes to show that borders between states are a vulnerable area, if the virus can jump states like this.

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mattwnz

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#2516351 2-Jul-2020 17:59

DS248:

And more stupidity gives NT their first case in almost three months! (interstate case, but now there is a couple of flights to deal with)

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/northern-territory-records-first-coronavirus-case-in-three-months-c-1139267

"The person is a Darwin resident in their 30s who came back to Australia from overseas, Health Minster Natasha Fyles said on Thursday.

The person completed two weeks of quarantine in Melbourne before flying Melbourne-Brisbane, Brisbane-Darwin and arriving in the NT capital on Monday.

But before travelling to Darwin the person stayed with family in one of the hot spots for the virus in Melbourne for a couple of days.

.. They arrived in Darwin on Monday starting to feel unwell and were tested and those results came through last night, .."

Ironic that the location is called 'Darwin'.

tdgeek

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#2516352 2-Jul-2020 18:01

mattwnz:

They are still blaming the outbreak largely on security guards at quarantine hotels https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coronavirus-updates-victoria-records-77-new-cases-mostly-in-hot-zones-20200702-p558b3.html

Maybe it is a political thing?

The question is, financially which leaves regions financially better off long term? Is it better to live a normal life with the virus eliminated, which has an initial higher cost? eg $100 billion per 5 million people. Or to only suppress the virus, with weaker lockdowns, which still has a big initial financial cost, but things remain more open and then to go in and out of lockdowns to control it?

Also remembering that a vaccine or effective treatment may be years off. Some businesses can't operate in a socially distanced environment, as it is not financially viable, and there are so many knock on effects that can cause. Also in terms of mental health, living with the virus in the community, and always fearing getting it , and needing to wear masks etc, IMO isn't good either.

IMO this also goes to show that borders between states are a vulnerable area, if the virus can jump states like this.

Where is the 100 billion from?

Retail is going ok, its not at 2019 levels but it is if you exclude tourism. Tourism is excluded anyway on a loose AUS containment goal. So, you choose between a longer but tighter lockdown ONCE or you have lockdowns forever. I can see VIC improving them another wave, as the seeds will remain in the community. It like pulling weeds. when you pull weeds you leave the weed there, it will grow again. Or you Roundup it ONCE

Fred99

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#2516364 2-Jul-2020 18:12

NSW also has a new case from someone from Vic - who had been tested positive on return from overseas, was in quarantine, somehow was released despite still having symptoms, worked at a supermarket for a few days (by coincidence used to be my local supermarket and still is when we visit), had obvious symptoms - the people at the supermarket insisted he get tested - and it came back positive.

Multiple layers of stupid - it's a very busy supermarket in a densely populated inner location with about 35 busy pubs, many restaurants etc.

tdgeek

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#2516369 2-Jul-2020 18:22

Fred99:

NSW also has a new case from someone from Vic - who had been tested positive on return from overseas, was in quarantine, somehow was released despite still having symptoms, worked at a supermarket for a few days (by coincidence used to be my local supermarket and still is when we visit), had obvious symptoms - the people at the supermarket insisted he get tested - and it came back positive.

Multiple layers of stupid - it's a very busy supermarket in a densely populated inner location with about 35 busy pubs, many restaurants etc.

With all this, what do they do? Battle on and hope to ring fence cases? Seems too hard to do that as too many contacts, let alone the CT type contacts which will not be known. They could Level 4 for a month, but I doubt the public will wear that now. It appears that it can only be forget about lockdowns we will manage cases for 2 years. You can't even lockdown 10 postcodes without a number seeking to opt out, as per the driver licence address changes many applied for.

mattwnz

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#2516378 2-Jul-2020 18:28

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

They are still blaming the outbreak largely on security guards at quarantine hotels https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coronavirus-updates-victoria-records-77-new-cases-mostly-in-hot-zones-20200702-p558b3.html

Maybe it is a political thing?

The question is, financially which leaves regions financially better off long term? Is it better to live a normal life with the virus eliminated, which has an initial higher cost? eg $100 billion per 5 million people. Or to only suppress the virus, with weaker lockdowns, which still has a big initial financial cost, but things remain more open and then to go in and out of lockdowns to control it?

Also remembering that a vaccine or effective treatment may be years off. Some businesses can't operate in a socially distanced environment, as it is not financially viable, and there are so many knock on effects that can cause. Also in terms of mental health, living with the virus in the community, and always fearing getting it , and needing to wear masks etc, IMO isn't good either.

IMO this also goes to show that borders between states are a vulnerable area, if the virus can jump states like this.

Where is the 100 billion from?

Retail is going ok, its not at 2019 levels but it is if you exclude tourism. Tourism is excluded anyway on a loose AUS containment goal. So, you choose between a longer but tighter lockdown ONCE or you have lockdowns forever. I can see VIC improving them another wave, as the seeds will remain in the community. It like pulling weeds. when you pull weeds you leave the weed there, it will grow again. Or you Roundup it ONCE

100 billion plus is what one of NZs top economists put the figure that Covid may eventually cost us, included government borrowing, lose of the international tourism industry etc etc. More if we go back into lockdown. I think it was on Sunday program or similar, several month ago.

This is a story by the same economist with a $150 billion tag for worst case projections https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12320069

Handle9

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#2516380 2-Jul-2020 18:29

tdgeek:

Where is the 100 billion from?

Karen

mattwnz

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#2516399 2-Jul-2020 18:55

tdgeek:

With all this, what do they do? Battle on and hope to ring fence cases? Seems too hard to do that as too many contacts, let alone the CT type contacts which will not be known. They could Level 4 for a month, but I doubt the public will wear that now. It appears that it can only be forget about lockdowns we will manage cases for 2 years. You can't even lockdown 10 postcodes without a number seeking to opt out, as per the driver licence address changes many applied for.

I don't think COVID understands postcodes.

I also wonder if the colder weather is now also causing it to spread more. That could be NZs downfall if we do start to get cases within the border.

I think everyone is fearing that first case that appears in the community when the new numbers are read out each day. Then I suspect there will be a bit of a witchhunt.

ezbee

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#2516401 2-Jul-2020 18:58

Covid cost of 100 Billion the way we do it now.

I suppose the point is what would be the cost of alternatives ?

Every other option has costs and limitations on business.

Cost of running managed infection rate impacts across society , tourism would not be normal, limits on activities to control infection rate.

Primary produce processing may have to reduce to add social distancing again, as seen in multiple countries meat processing etc are vulnerable.

Any manufacturing with many people in close contact would be the same.

People not going out so much even if they can because of increased danger.

No option comes free.

mattwnz

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#2516402 2-Jul-2020 19:00

ezbee:

Covid cost of 100 Billion the way we do it now.

I suppose the point is what would be the cost of alternatives ?

Every other option has costs and limitations on business.

Cost of running managed infection rate impacts across society , tourism would not be normal, limits on activities to control infection rate.

Primary produce processing may have to reduce to add social distancing again, as seen in multiple countries meat processing etc are vulnerable.

No option come free.

The article above says $150 billion in the worst case, but that also mean potentially tens of thousands dying in NZ, partly because the health system would likely be overwhelmed.

ezbee

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#2516406 2-Jul-2020 19:17

mattwnz:

ezbee:

Covid cost of 100 Billion the way we do it now.

I suppose the point is what would be the cost of alternatives ?

Every other option has costs and limitations on business.

Cost of running managed infection rate impacts across society , tourism would not be normal, limits on activities to control infection rate.

Primary produce processing may have to reduce to add social distancing again, as seen in multiple countries meat processing etc are vulnerable.

No option come free.

The article above says $150 billion in the worst case, but that also mean potentially tens of thousands dying in NZ, partly because the health system would likely be overwhelmed.

Ok understand mattwnz,

The linked article does indicate that we have saved billions by avoiding worst case reading to the bottom.

I suppose my concern is that there are those who just pull out the negative numbers and say we would have saved all this by doing nothing.

Open the boarder now , take infection on the chin , and we would be back to normal, where there is surely a cost to this.

Saving lives does not really resonate , or have a value with this sort.

Our high dollar which is a bit of a pity for exports , is a positive vote by international markets for what we have done.

tdgeek

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#2516409 2-Jul-2020 19:29

mattwnz:

100 billion plus is what one of NZs top economists put the figure that Covid may eventually cost us, included government borrowing, lose of the international tourism industry etc etc. More if we go back into lockdown. I think it was on Sunday program or similar, several month ago.

This is a story by the same economist with a $150 billion tag for worst case projections https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12320069

Ok, so its based on worst case scenario and months ago. Arguably, NZ is in the best possible situation it could be now.We are free to spend in the economy, exports and imports are happening anyway. We are blessed right now. Ive seen quite a few positive articles from economists about GDP, 2021, etc. Reluctant to post too much of that here as its generally negative here. IMHO we have avoided the worst case scenarios, and we can hope to achieve the better case scenarios. But when employment drops by less than expected, it will still be be bashed as NZ falling is falling apart.

We have avoided the bullet, we are battling on well. The next GDP figure will be down, way down, but thats known, the following 2 quarters will be a lot better. Not great but closer to holding our own. If so, the costs the Govt will spend to manage will be lower.

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#2516414 2-Jul-2020 19:46

Fred99:
VicRoads has moved to stop a significant surge in licence amendments as people rushed to change their addresses in the hopes of getting through police checkpoints.

It's a bit presumptive to assume that all the address changes are fraudulent. No doubt people who once lived in the lockdown zones but never officially changed their addresses decided that now would be a great time to put that right. And, if you read the article, VicRoads didn't "move to stop"... rather, they moved to validate address changes.

tdgeek

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#2516415 2-Jul-2020 19:47

Just on Sky News now, The AUS NSW Police Minister. People have been visiting quarantine facilities then driving home. Busting to fine $11k. That may be needed as an example, as it seems citizens aren't keen on cooperating.

tdgeek

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#2516416 2-Jul-2020 19:49

frankv:
Fred99:

VicRoads has moved to stop a significant surge in licence amendments as people rushed to change their addresses in the hopes of getting through police checkpoints.

It's a bit presumptive to assume that all the address changes are fraudulent. No doubt people who once lived in the lockdown zones but never officially changed their addresses decided that now would be a great time to put that right. And, if you read the article, VicRoads didn't "move to stop"... rather, they moved to validate address changes.

Lockdown Tonight:Change Address

I'll go with Fred on this one

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