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  #2516822 3-Jul-2020 16:02
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mattwnz:

 

I think that [Unemployment numbers and estimates] is based on this point in time. But things can easily change with COVID, and as teh WHO has warned, it is far from over, even though some world leaders think otherwise. 

 

We have been both careful and lucky so far. But if we get a breach at our border, like has happened in Oz, and we get another outbreak, most likely in one of our main cities, then we maybe forced into lockdowns again. It wouldn't be good if it occurred in Auckland for example. But potentially it could occur anywhere.

 

 

Agreed. All these numbers are round guesses and estimated by economists. Could easily be higher. But I can't see the sky falling in regardless.

 

NZ will never go back to a total lockdown. It will be regional lockdowns if push comes to shove (And some mindless panic no matter what).
Auckland would be the worst place to have an out-break - and sadly the most likely.
Somewhere like Dunedin would be much easier to lock down with only 100,000 people and a few roads in and out.

 

The government will take it slowly and ignore the calls to open up before the election, but we may still find a case gets through. But hopefully not.

 


But I look at what Taiwan has done and have a lot of hope that an outbreak can be controlled and the damage mitigated for us.
But it's running wild in the world for the next few years. It won't be stopped in places like the US until they develop herd immunity (if that can be done).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




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  #2516870 3-Jul-2020 16:12
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Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


 
 
 
 


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  #2516872 3-Jul-2020 16:16
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^^^ Looks like developing  vaccine is like trying to use a gun that is fixed in place, to hit a moving target.

 

The mutation looks worse because it looks like it is a lot  more infectious


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  #2516873 3-Jul-2020 16:19
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Batman: The virus had mutated? But it's not what you think...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

 

3-9 times more infectious! i.e. it spreads much faster. :( :( :( But the good? news is that it is no more likely to make an individual sick. Which I guess also means it won't make someone any less sick.

 

Which is going to make it that much more difficult to keep out. And going to make lockdowns more necessary for those places infected with it.

 

 


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  #2516874 3-Jul-2020 16:21
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If we open the border while it's a wild fire abroad we will not be able to prevent an outbreak here. We simply do not have the logistics to do so. Some in media like Hoskings are pushing  for the border to open for pure selfish reasons and will then smugly condemn the government for opening the border. My ex colleagues have advised me what the estimates for total joblessness by years end are and it is truly worrying. Some will say but it's just estimates but these estimates are based on sound methods and metrics. My humble advice to anyone is to concentrate now on reducing personal debt levels and where possible increase savings. New Zealand and the rest of the world is in for a long haul battle until circa 2023.   

 

 





Mike

 

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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


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  #2516877 3-Jul-2020 16:29
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I can't understand why we aren't requiring people are Covid free before boarding the plane to come to NZ, to minimise the risk of it coming into NZ. Or fining airlines for every COVID case they bring in, so they can take action to make sure that people flying are well. Why should tax payers currently be carrying this cost?

 

At the moment, jamming international planes full of passengers , where an increasing percentage will have COVID, is just increasing the risk for NZ, and increasing the risk that it will breach the border. There is no downside for airlines currently from what I can see.

 

NZ often seem to close the barn door, after the horse has already bolted. We didn't move to managed isolation until we were well into level 4, despite self isolation being such a failure. 


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  #2516902 3-Jul-2020 17:14
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mattwnz:

 

I can't understand why we aren't requiring people are Covid free before boarding the plane to come to NZ, to minimise the risk of it coming into NZ. Or fining airlines for every COVID case they bring in, so they can take action to make sure that people flying are well. Why should tax payers currently be carrying this cost?

 

 

I think are are difficult problems doing this - and they're global issues that would need global solutions:

 

The tests aren't very good in terms of false-negative rate, if they can be improved then you'd still ideally need some kind of globally acceptable certification of testing, and ideally the tests would have to be much faster.  I was watching something the other day, I think (for a reasonably hefty fee) in Israel they have some requirements for testing (or maybe to go to Israel), so you can wait 24 hours for a result - or pay US$150 to get a result in 3 hours. Without a negative test - you don't fly. But it's still got holes - the ~25% false negative rate, and the possibility that travellers may have just acquired C-19 and are yet infectious. So it should reduce the risk, but it's not even close to eliminating risk. 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2516910 3-Jul-2020 17:34
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mattwnz:

 

I can't understand why we aren't requiring people are Covid free before boarding the plane to come to NZ, to minimise the risk of it coming into NZ. Or fining airlines for every COVID case they bring in, so they can take action to make sure that people flying are well. Why should tax payers currently be carrying this cost?

 

At the moment, jamming international planes full of passengers , where an increasing percentage will have COVID, is just increasing the risk for NZ, and increasing the risk that it will breach the border. There is no downside for airlines currently from what I can see.

 

NZ often seem to close the barn door, after the horse has already bolted. We didn't move to managed isolation until we were well into level 4, despite self isolation being such a failure. 

 

 

I like your posts but this is way negative. There is no test at the airport that resolves in 60 minutes and is anywhere near accurate. You could force military enforced quarantine, but you have no rights to do that in another nation. You cannot stop Kiwis coming home. So, we quarantine here, 12 day teat, you can go. You can't really do a lot more IMHO. 


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  #2516911 3-Jul-2020 17:40
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MikeB4:

 

Some in media like Hoskings are pushing  for the border to open for pure selfish reasons and will then smugly condemn the government for opening the border. 

 

 

Please tell us what these “selfish reasons” are Mike. Do you even listen to NewstalkZB? Mike Hosking (note no s on the end of his name)* has been asking what the plan is to open the border, not to just throw the doors open. His Monday morning interview with the PM is pretty much a waste of airtime, because nothing ever gets answered. More information came from the DPM who seemed to suggest we are waiting for a vaccine. If that is truely the case, then your gloomy economic prediction will surely come to pass.

 

* The Right Honourable Winston Peters calls him “Mr Hoskins” which I’m sure is deliberate.





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  #2516913 3-Jul-2020 17:43
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With regards to testing before boarding, Some countries and some airlines are requiring a negitive PCR test result not more than 5 days old before catching a flight.

 

This avoids the issues with false positives and inaccurate tests, but might miss people who get infected after taking the test.


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  #2516914 3-Jul-2020 17:44
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Dingbatt:

 

MikeB4:

 

Some in media like Hoskings are pushing  for the border to open for pure selfish reasons and will then smugly condemn the government for opening the border. 

 

 

Please tell us what these “selfish reasons” are Mike. Do you even listen to NewstalkZB? Mike Hosking (note no s on the end of his name)* has been asking what the plan is to open the border, not to just throw the doors open. His Monday morning interview with the PM is pretty much a waste of airtime, because nothing ever gets answered. More information came from the DPM who seemed to suggest we are waiting for a vaccine. If that is truely the case, then your gloomy economic prediction will surely come to pass.

 

* The Right Honourable Winston Peters calls him “Mr Hoskins” which I’m sure is deliberate.

 

 

The answer is has it has always been, when its safe to open the borders. AUS was pencilled in by the PM for September. AUS has failed so thats on the no go list now. The option isn't when NZ wants it, its when NZ can do it. Its not actually up to us. 


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  #2516915 3-Jul-2020 17:48
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Scott3:

 

With regards to testing before boarding, Some countries and some airlines are requiring a negitive PCR test result not more than 5 days old before catching a flight.

 

This avoids the issues with false positives and inaccurate tests, but might miss people who get infected after taking the test.

 

 

Yep a 5 day hole.

 

 For those that here that want a gilt edged guarantee, the only options are 14 day quarantine and a 13th day test and straight to the airport. Or ban passengers n matter what. I can't see either as an option

 

 

 

 


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  #2516916 3-Jul-2020 17:54
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tdgeek:

 

The answer is has it has always been, when its safe to open the borders. AUS was pencilled in by the PM for September. AUS has failed so thats on the no go list now. The option isn't when NZ wants it, its when NZ can do it. Its not actually up to us. 

 

 

What is “safe” though?

 


No Covid19 anywhere in the world?

 

Signs of the pandemic burning out?

 

No known cases in a particular country?

 

Widespread deployment of a vaccine?

 

Herd immunity (if even possible) in a particular country?

 

I don’t believe any such definition (except possibly the first one) that has been developed by NZ decision makers.





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  #2516918 3-Jul-2020 17:58
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tdgeek:

 

mattwnz:

 

I can't understand why we aren't requiring people are Covid free before boarding the plane to come to NZ, to minimise the risk of it coming into NZ. Or fining airlines for every COVID case they bring in, so they can take action to make sure that people flying are well. Why should tax payers currently be carrying this cost?

 

At the moment, jamming international planes full of passengers , where an increasing percentage will have COVID, is just increasing the risk for NZ, and increasing the risk that it will breach the border. There is no downside for airlines currently from what I can see.

 

NZ often seem to close the barn door, after the horse has already bolted. We didn't move to managed isolation until we were well into level 4, despite self isolation being such a failure. 

 

 

I like your posts but this is way negative. There is no test at the airport that resolves in 60 minutes and is anywhere near accurate. You could force military enforced quarantine, but you have no rights to do that in another nation. You cannot stop Kiwis coming home. So, we quarantine here, 12 day teat, you can go. You can't really do a lot more IMHO. 

 

 

Yes, quick tests at the airport are not that accurate, and these quick tests would only filter out a certain percentage, but guess they are still better than nothing to reduce the numbers and risk to NZ. But one way to do it, would be for the person traveling to prepare to travel for two weeks prior to traveling. eg self isoalting, and getting a covid test and doctors certificate first after a covid test. I think this is essential for COVID hotspots like India, Pakistan, UK, US etc, where most of our cases are coming from .

 

At the moment, all the cost is on the NZ tax payer as they come in, and there is little mitigation prior to this for that traveler.  Some airlines may require now passengers to wear masks, but that is only minimizing the spread between passengers who may have it. But the airlines need to reduce the risk of. But I can't see it happening because it is too much work and cost for them to manage, and it outweighs the cost of the flight.

 

My point is that we need to reduce the risk of the virus getting to our border, not that this will stop every single case. The numbers are only going to increase due to the spread, and so is the risk. I think what has happened in Oz with their hotels, and the security guards, just show how easily the border can be breached by the virus. They also now apparently have a superspreader spreading the virus.

 

Just wait for a new local case, and guessing there will be a big  witchhunt from the media, who have been highlighting problems with our managed isolation facilities for a while. I think we can thank thr media that the managed isolation system has tightened up. But when humans are involved, there can still sometimes be  holes.


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  #2516920 3-Jul-2020 18:05
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tdgeek:

 

Scott3:

 

With regards to testing before boarding, Some countries and some airlines are requiring a negitive PCR test result not more than 5 days old before catching a flight.

 

This avoids the issues with false positives and inaccurate tests, but might miss people who get infected after taking the test.

 

 

Yep a 5 day hole.

 

 For those that here that want a gilt edged guarantee, the only options are 14 day quarantine and a 13th day test and straight to the airport. Or ban passengers n matter what. I can't see either as an option

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is really about minimising the number of cases in a reasonable way. From my understanding, some travellers from some countries  don't really have to do anything to reduce their risk of having the virus before they travel. Likewise airports or airlines. They may do a token temperature scan prior to boarding, which is hit and miss, and would only filter out a small percentage. They all have a role to play to reduce the risk for NZ IMO. Often the only way to incentivise this is financially.


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