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  #2517257 4-Jul-2020 15:45
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mattwnz:

Yeap totally agree, but I am sure the big money earners in Wellington can use their skills to work out something. So far they seem to have done a good job with working their way through this disaster.  You do bring up a good point about trust. We are having to put so much trust in people and countries



I don't think that the big money earners can solve it... there are some problems that are insoluble, no matter how many sharp cookies you put onto it, or how much you pay them.

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  #2517258 4-Jul-2020 15:54
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freitasm:

mattwnz:


Yeap totally agree, but I am sure the big money earners in Wellington can use their skills to work out something. So far they seem to have done a good job with working their way through this disaster.  You do bring up a good point about trust. We are having to put so much trust in people and countries



What "disaster"?


Could you folks be specific? 




I believe that the "disaster" refers to the whole covid-19 pandemic.

 
 
 
 


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  #2517261 4-Jul-2020 16:10
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How it feels to predict a pandemic: Interview with David Quammen, author of Spillover

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by By Dan Drollette Jr

In 2012, author David Quammen wrote a book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, that was the result of five years of research on scientists who were looking into the possibility of another Ebola-type disease emerging.

The consensus: There would indeed be a new disease, likely from the coronavirus family, coming out of a bat, and it would likely emerge in or around a wet market in China.

But what was not predictable was how unprepared we would be. In this interview, ... about what drew him to this topic, the nature of new viruses, why more are expected to emerge, and what makes some viruses more likely to infect humans than others. ...

He cautions against being overly optimistic about the development of a vaccine, saying the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 will likely be around in some form for generations: “This virus is never going to be gone.”
...

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  #2517270 4-Jul-2020 16:23
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frankv: 

 


If you only want Mike to reply, don't post in a public forum. It's normal and accepted behaviour in any public forum for participants to respond to any post. Why is Mike's opinion on Hosking so much more important than mine?

Maybe you're right though... maybe Hosking is only a stuffed shirt empty vessel wannabe shock jock.



 

Likewise, if you want to express an opinion you are quite entitled to. But don't put QED after it, because the question asked was why Mike thought Hosking’s interest was selfish. Opinion is not proof, although it appears to be accepted behaviour in any public forum.

 

I refute the (passive aggressive) bolded statement above that you ascribed to me.

 

Getting too far off topic now, but someone needs to ask the people in charge a few hard questions and that is bound to rub their dedicated followers the wrong way.





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  #2517280 4-Jul-2020 16:46
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The curious case of Japan that has had low level of C19.
Personally upon seeing how they handled the cruise ship thing I would bet disaster was to follow soon, and it did not. 
They are limiting entry to nationals with 14 Day isolation in an approved place .
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

 

Some large tests done seem to indicate very low antibody % in population, so they are still vulnerable not having wide spread.
""
Telecom giant Softbank carried out antibody testing on 40,000 employees, which showed that just 0.24% had been exposed to the virus. Randomised testing of 8,000 people in Tokyo and two other prefectures has shown even lower levels of exposure. In Tokyo just 0.1% came back positive.
""
Some mention that there might be some prior exposure in history to another SARS like virus that gives Japanese who do get it a lower death rate.

 

Certainly high population density is what something like C19 could tear through. 

 

On the other side.
They are a country that has a very well oiled disaster preparedness machinery and ethos with everyone participating in regular exercises.
Populations that have delt with disasters before are more likely to act, much like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore people did.
Mask wearing is a normal thing historically, more than other Asian countries.
Apparently going back to the 1918 Flu and never really went away for anyone with a snuffle, sign being a good citizen.
A great deal of willing co-operation with authorities reasonable measures.
They have protests about important things like attempted opening of nuclear power plants , but in general none of the stuff you see in Texas.
Privacy ? Authorities access to resources for contact tracing ? 
Not sure on this, our contact tracing is hampered, plus willingness of a % to give false details to authorities and otherwise be uncooperative. 
Japan has probably has high density of people covered by CCTV even if you just consider rapid transit stations, but I expect everywhere else too.

 

I would bow to superior knowledge of those that know Japan and Japanese better.
Some things to learn, but a more responsible society might take a bit of time for us.

 

Click to see full size

 

 


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  #2517295 4-Jul-2020 17:53
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kingdragonfly: How it feels to predict a pandemic: Interview with David Quammen, author of Spillover

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by By Dan Drollette Jr

In 2012, author David Quammen wrote a book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, that was the result of five years of research on scientists who were looking into the possibility of another Ebola-type disease emerging.

 

Interesting link ,  

 

Consumption of exotic wild animals has been growing as a mark of affluence , thus price and lengths gone to smuggle them.
I'm not specifically having a go at Chinese here we have European tourists go on hunts in Africa and eat all sorts of wild meat while there.
Through to going to Queensland and trying an Alligator burger. Well just about anywhere really.

 

In above link is link to New York Times article , but paywalled , below is link to same article in another newspaper.

 

Pangolins, article noted, Ancestors did not always eat them. Noting there is no confirmation on if intermediator was Pangolin, Civet or something else.
https://www.santafenewmexican.com/opinion/commentary/coronavirus-revenge-of-the-pangolins/article_706f1344-5f0f-11ea-a096-e3538bd709a9.html

 

""
Except that our ancestors actually said otherwise.

 

If anything, the meat of pangolins was believed to cause ailments, rather than cure any: It tastes bitter and was thought to be poisonous. Beiji Qianjin Yaofang, a collection of prescriptions compiled by Sun Simiao, an alchemist of the Tang dynasty, advised in 652: “There are lurking ailments in our stomachs. Don’t eat the meat of pangolins, because it may trigger them and harm us.” Bencao Gangmu, Compendium of Materia Medica), the Chinese medicine and cuisine capstone by Li Shizhen (1518-93) — an herbalist, naturalist and physician — warned that people who eat pangolin “may contract chronic diarrhea, and then go into convulsion and get a fever.”

 

Ancient texts also cautioned against eating any number of other wild animals, including snakes and badgers and other creatures, such as boars, that today are thought to sometimes transmit diseases to humans.
""

 

Edit, change on to no .


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  #2517307 4-Jul-2020 18:27
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frankv:
mattwnz:

 

Yeap totally agree, but I am sure the big money earners in Wellington can use their skills to work out something. So far they seem to have done a good job with working their way through this disaster.  You do bring up a good point about trust. We are having to put so much trust in people and countries

 



I don't think that the big money earners can solve it... there are some problems that are insoluble, no matter how many sharp cookies you put onto it, or how much you pay them.

 

These big money earners are I assume the Govt? They aren't big money earners. IIRC Dr Ashley is on 550k, Mike Bush was on 770. PM is about 450k? In the terms of CEO's , low money. Whatever your poison, Government and Opposition are not highly paid, and they deserve respect for that. 


 
 
 
 


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  #2517308 4-Jul-2020 18:31
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frankv:

I believe that the "disaster" refers to the whole covid-19 pandemic.

 

You are probably right, but the frenzy needs to be kept in context. Its a global disaster, but not in NZ

 

I wish more can appreciate that we DID WELL, it wasn't luck. It was a conservative approach, AND IT WORKED


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  #2517310 4-Jul-2020 18:36
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Dingbatt:

 

frankv: 

 


If you only want Mike to reply, don't post in a public forum. It's normal and accepted behaviour in any public forum for participants to respond to any post. Why is Mike's opinion on Hosking so much more important than mine?

Maybe you're right though... maybe Hosking is only a stuffed shirt empty vessel wannabe shock jock.



 

Likewise, if you want to express an opinion you are quite entitled to. But don't put QED after it, because the question asked was why Mike thought Hosking’s interest was selfish. Opinion is not proof, although it appears to be accepted behaviour in any public forum.

 

I refute the (passive aggressive) bolded statement above that you ascribed to me.

 

Getting too far off topic now, but someone needs to ask the people in charge a few hard questions and that is bound to rub their dedicated followers the wrong way.

 

 

To be fair, aren't you just as bad? 

 

ask the people in charge a few hard questions and that is bound to rub their dedicated followers is actually the response that worked.Not long ago, and here, AUS was better, now here we are, we are better, which is not an obnoxious, "look at us" the fact is the NZ approach worked. It was not outlandish, it was a conservative strategy and it has worked for us. Forget politics, it worked. Thats ALL that matters. But I do see how that is an Inconvenient Truth


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  #2517314 4-Jul-2020 18:47
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tdgeek: Forget politics, it worked. Thats ALL that matters. But I do see how that is an Inconvenient Truth

 



 

I agree when looking back, the health outcome is almost second to none. I don’t know what is inconvenient about that. Maybe they should make a film about it. 





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  #2517316 4-Jul-2020 19:04
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Dingbatt:

 

tdgeek: Forget politics, it worked. Thats ALL that matters. But I do see how that is an Inconvenient Truth

 



 

I agree when looking back, the health outcome is almost second to none. I don’t know what is inconvenient about that. Maybe they should make a film about it. 

 

 

Good idea, the title, is (TM). It appeared your post was 100% politically motivated, apologies if not. Its inconvenient to those that support National and convenienet to those that support Labour at the moment, but at the end of the day, we have nailed it, which is all that matters. There will be random cases that sneak out, you can't stop that with humans, but it could have been a lot worse.


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  #2517331 4-Jul-2020 19:37
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Filmed this week. Lots of links in the video's description.

From Scarred Lungs to Diabetes: How COVID May Stick With People Long-Term

SciShow News

Even though we are still in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists are trying to figure out the ways in which this disease may stick with people in the long term - from lasting lung damage to potentially triggering diseases like diabetes and Alzheimers.


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  #2517433 4-Jul-2020 22:56
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The WHO has quietly amended their covid-19 timeline, for 31 Dec 2019

 

Good that they are correcting the record, but worrying that erroneous or falsified information was published for so long. 

 

This is important because of reporting obligations member states have to the WHO.

 

Note that the 31st of December was also the date that Taiwan emailed the WHO notifying them of the 7 cases in Wuhan.

 

 

 

Original:

 

 

Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

 

 

Updated:

 

 

WHO’s Country Office in the People’s Republic of China picked up a media statement by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from their website on cases of ‘viral pneumonia’ in Wuhan, People’s Republic of China.

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29-06-2020-covidtimeline

 


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  #2517489 5-Jul-2020 10:49
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frankv:

 

freitasm:

 

What "disaster"?

 

Could you folks be specific? 

 



I believe that the "disaster" refers to the whole covid-19 pandemic.

 

 

I re-read the replies for this and I think he meant "disaster" as in the border control, not the "whole covid-19 pandemic". And I believe the reply "Yeap totally agree, but I am sure the big money earners in Wellington can use their skills to work out something. So far they seem to have done a good job with working their way through this disaster." is sarcastic and political.  





 

 

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  #2517496 5-Jul-2020 11:11
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The United States has given up.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/we-need-live-it-white-house-readies-new-message-nation-n1232884

 

'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus

 

 





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