covid may have started outside china 😮

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12345688

Batman:

 

covid may have started outside china 😮

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12345688

 

Yep.  Some data from France where they had patients admitted with atypical pneumonia at the same time as the first cases seen (and retrospectively diagnosed) in Wuhan, tested positive for C-19 antibodies when they tested them a couple of months ago.

So "why didn't  they know it was a new disease".  The French health system is very good, and I don't think they were trying to "hide anything" for pride in their political system.  Atypical pneumonia happens - the cause won't always be identified - and it's hard to find something if you're not specifically looking for it.  

Anyway, the public seem to think it's the "The China Virus" - if you question that - then you're a CCP sympathiser.  Job well done - case closed.  Totally counter-productive to trying to find where it came from in the hope of preventing new similar outbreaks, but hey - it wins votes / deflects blame.

According to the Auckland Herald this morning
"A woman who scaled two fences to escape from managed isolation facility last night has been charged."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12345639

Two fences!
🤬

PolicyGuy:

 

Minister Woods was quite clear about the "absconder" woman on the news this evening.

 

The woman went into the prescribed outdoor exercise area, scaled the fence and was away on her toes.
This is not a lapse in security, it's a deliberate and premeditated decision to "do a runner". I don't think it's reasonable to have to surround a 'managed isolation' exercise area with razor wire, searchlights and guards: it's 'managed isolation', not even "quarantine", let alone Paremoremo Maximum Security.

 

 

 

Oblivian:
She is now facing a charge breach of section 26(1) of the COVID-19 Public Health Response Act 2020 and has been summonsed to appear before the Auckland District Court as soon as her managed isolation is finished.

Excellent!
AIUI, the maximum penalty id 6 months imprisonment and/or a $4000 fine. Both would be well deserved

 

PolicyGuy:

 

Two fences!
🤬

 

One of them was tiny, "scaled" should have been "hopped over".  Not that it makes a difference to the outrage.

duckDecoy:

 

PolicyGuy:

 

Two fences!
🤬

 

 

One of them was tiny, "scaled" should have been "hopped over".  Not that it makes a difference to the outrage.

 

not sure she was doing a runner either, 2 hours later they found her 2 blocks away. it sounds like a mental health issue , she just had enough . Not all people can cope being isolated.

Article is a bit thin on some detail,

Falkland_Islands No reports of anything until 3rd April, starting with a serviceman at military camp there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Falkland_Islands
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/falkland-islands-malvinas/

It would be nice to know what the example is.
Falkland Islands is not that isolated in one way.
Fishing vessels call in there, there was report of NZ Sanford employee that got in a bar fight there recently.
Then the rotation of military and civilian flights, our increasing global connectiveness. 

Cruise Ship ?
Seems to be taking about the Aurora Expeditions 'Greg Mortimer' on multi-week excursion to Antarctica and South Georgia Island, departed on March 15 ?
Cases being identified on day 8 seems hardly unusual for a cycle or two of quiet transmission before it hits someone who is more vulnerable.
Looking at other cruise ships this does not seem to be untypical.

Potential existence in early December , and November in China was talked about early in the piece before it went quiet.
There were cases not connected directly with the market and nature of this beast is that it can spread in those with few symptoms for a time.
Before alarm was raised about more , more severe cases , this could have been written off as a blip in influenza or age/co-morbidity.
Before Ai Fen's story that started potentially 18th December.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ai_Fen
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074622/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-says-officials-muzzled-her-sharing

We may never know for sure as those avenues are closed to further investigation.

The one data point from Spain in March, but nothing in between ? Well we shall see if more comes in to fill out the picture.
Might be like the faster than light story just noise in the data.

So not a strong argument, but interesting to keep in mind, as more info comes in from everywhere except.

Certainly with SARS .
Those on watch for these things always expected another variant was out there in the wild where it came from, unfortunately globally we moved on.
Other lovely things like this found in Malaysia , but not with human to human transmission.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipah_virus_infection

vexxxboy:

 

not sure she was doing a runner either, 2 hours later they found her 2 blocks away. it sounds like a mental health issue , she just had enough . Not all people can cope being isolated.

 

Apparently they were arrested after asking a police officer for directions back to the Pullman, sounds like they wigged out, rather than trying to disappear into the night....

vexxxboy:

 

not sure she was doing a runner either, 2 hours later they found her 2 blocks away. it sounds like a mental health issue , she just had enough . Not all people can cope being isolated.

 

If its a mental Health issue, then its not a good idea to just send her back to the hotel.

One expert , who has been through NZ's quarantine, said its just a matter of time before there's a suicide . I could see that happening
with someone in quarantine trying to to deal with the recent death of a close relative .
So, as per usual , wait untill that happens, everyone throws there arms up in the air & says how could that happen .

There are going to be people in quarantine/isolation who simply cant cope. So lets not plan for that either .

127 new cases found in Melbourne, for the first time in 100 years NSW is closing the border with Victoria.

They've got a problem with outbreaks in high-density social housing blocks. Some of these have been fully locked down - almost "Wuhan style".  I expect there will be significant communication/language problems with residents.

Fred99:

 

127 new cases found in Melbourne, for the first time in 100 years NSW is closing the border with Victoria.

They've got a problem with outbreaks in high-density social housing blocks. Some of these have been fully locked down - almost "Wuhan style".  I expect there will be significant communication/language problems with residents.

 

It really puts the Aust PM in a bind, as he and the NSW premier have been banging on about QLD keeping their border closed, and how he wanted full movement between all the states...

Excluding VIC community transmission has pretty much been stamped out in OZ ...

The big question now is,  are Australia prepared to wait the 2-3 months its likely going to take to get this outbreak under control? or will the rest of Australia (and NZ) look at opening travel up in August/September....

VIC are having more cases now than they did in the original outbreak.... and I think Melbourne will need to impose more restrictions, Also it must be fairly likely that Schools will not go back next week...

Fred99:

 

127 new cases found in Melbourne, for the first time in 100 years NSW is closing the border with Victoria.

They've got a problem with outbreaks in high-density social housing blocks. Some of these have been fully locked down - almost "Wuhan style".  I expect there will be significant communication/language problems with residents.

 

reading some of the reports i would not be surprised if riots broke out

vexxxboy:

 

Fred99:

 

127 new cases found in Melbourne, for the first time in 100 years NSW is closing the border with Victoria.

They've got a problem with outbreaks in high-density social housing blocks. Some of these have been fully locked down - almost "Wuhan style".  I expect there will be significant communication/language problems with residents.

 

 

reading some of the reports i would not be surprised if riots broke out

 

Well I hope not.  And to put things in perspective, IIRC only 17 of the 127 cases notified today were residents of the housing complexes.
They are pretty awful social housing buildings from what I recall, '60s London "projects" style.

C-19 is a crowd disease.  These always tend to hit the poor first - and hit them hardest.  Blaming the poor for epidemics was a historic reaction.  I hope we're smarter than that now. 

wellygary:

 

Fred99:

 

127 new cases found in Melbourne, for the first time in 100 years NSW is closing the border with Victoria.

They've got a problem with outbreaks in high-density social housing blocks. Some of these have been fully locked down - almost "Wuhan style".  I expect there will be significant communication/language problems with residents.

 

 

It really puts the Aust PM in a bind, as he and the NSW premier have been banging on about QLD keeping their border closed, and how he wanted full movement between all the states...

 

Excluding VIC community transmission has pretty much been stamped out in OZ ...

 

The big question now is,  are Australia prepared to wait the 2-3 months its likely going to take to get this outbreak under control? or will the rest of Australia (and NZ) look at opening travel up in August/September....

 

VIC are having more cases now than they did in the original outbreak.... and I think Melbourne will need to impose more restrictions, Also it must be fairly likely that Schools will not go back next week... 

True, but the decision to close the border was made in a joint meeting between Morrison and the NSW & Victoria premiers.  And clearly with the support of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews - “The best thing to do is to close the border”. 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/border-between-nsw-and-victoria-to-close-as-southern-state-battles-coronavirus-outbreak-c-1146746

Political considerations aside, closing the NSW-Vic border was always seen as a difficult proposition, in part because of the border towns and large number of road crossings.  But in the end no other sane choice.  Local spread eliminated from all but NSW and Vic, and heading that way for NSW.   Closing the Vic border is probably the only way some of the other states such as WA would be prepared to 'fully' open theirs.  

Travel bubble with NZ possibly also a factor? 

Fred99:

 

Well I hope not.  And to put things in perspective, IIRC only 17 of the 127 cases notified today were residents of the housing complexes.
They are pretty awful social housing buildings from what I recall, '60s London "projects" style.

 

C-19 is a crowd disease.  These always tend to hit the poor first - and hit them hardest.  Blaming the poor for epidemics was a historic reaction.  I hope we're smarter than that now. 

 

Plus there were also 10 additional previous cases that have been linked to the Towers, so they have 53 cases in total link to them

DS248:

 

...

 

True, but the decision to close the border was made in a joint meeting between Morrison and the NSW & Victoria premiers.  And clearly with the support of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews - “The best thing to do is to close the border”. 

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/border-between-nsw-and-victoria-to-close-as-southern-state-battles-coronavirus-outbreak-c-1146746

 

 

 

Political considerations aside, closing the NSW-Vic border was always seen as a difficult proposition, in part because of the border towns and large number of road crossings.  But in the end no other sane choice.  Local spread eliminated from all but NSW and Vic, and heading that way for NSW.   Closing the Vic border is probably the only way some of the other states such as WA would be prepared to 'fully' open theirs.  

 

Travel bubble with NZ possibly also a factor? 

It also makes sense from a practical management point of view.  Isolating local spread to Victoria should free up more resources to concentrate on Victoria.  Closing the NSW border may also make the seriousness of the situation clearer to some holdouts in Victoria; ie. real economic impacts.