2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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4239 posts

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#2518559 7-Jul-2020 15:36

DS248:

Symptoms and positive test after being released from NSW hotel quarantine. Tested negative on day 10 of quarantine.

https://7news.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-man-tests-positive-to-coronavirus-after-being-released-from-hotel-quarantine-c-1149619

which is why we test on day 14

Common sense is not as common as you think.

ezbee

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#2518564 7-Jul-2020 16:00

vexxxboy:

DS248:

Symptoms and positive test after being released from NSW hotel quarantine. Tested negative on day 10 of quarantine.

https://7news.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-man-tests-positive-to-coronavirus-after-being-released-from-hotel-quarantine-c-1149619

which is why we test on day 14

Test is not perfect by any means.

So quarantine no matter what.

A test early in quarantine to separate out known cases to tighter quarantine treatment, and reduce chance of spread in quarantine.

Then exit test just to be sure , as tests are imperfect.

Particularly if you have people with low level of threshold for discomfort , your chances of a reliable result go down.

Just about everything around this is playing the odds and needs a bit of an understanding of statistics, place your bets.
Binary arithmetic with just single bit precision seems to be the understanding in population these days things are either 0 or 100% , which almost nothing is.
Texas and Florida etc have been finding out what happens when you ignore, press those odds, ignore masks etc that push odds in your favor.

It would be a very safe system but apparently significant % of current generations are incapable of dealing with minor inconvenience.

Edit for typo and missed paste.

KrazyKid

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#2518566 7-Jul-2020 16:03

wellygary:

Awe come on, they can't have it both ways,

12 days ago, they screwed down on community testing by upping the requirements, and now they are complaining not enough are getting tested...... talk about running hot and cold....

Agreed - but I am willing to shunt the blame at the MoH here. Winter cold season so probably to many tests were being done. But now MoH has clamped down too hard. They will need to have a word to the doctors and find the balance.

I suspect the surveillance testing plan is make sure people presenting at doctors with some symptoms are tested.

I understand the need to focus on the obvious potential leaks (the border), but we do need to do some proactive testing as well.

To be honest I think it's a good thing questions are being asked in a timely manner by Hipkins. A lot of this is new waters for everyone.

DS248

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#2518617 7-Jul-2020 16:20

vexxxboy:

DS248:

Symptoms and positive test after being released from NSW hotel quarantine. Tested negative on day 10 of quarantine.

https://7news.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-man-tests-positive-to-coronavirus-after-being-released-from-hotel-quarantine-c-1149619

which is why we test on day 14

Our second test is on day 12

But as others have said, the testing is not perfect. Also in the NSW case above, he did not have symptoms until after he left quarantine (which I think is 14 days over there, as here)

Batman

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#2518622 7-Jul-2020 16:43

DS248:
Getting worse - 191 new cases in Victoria yesterday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/victoria-coronavirus-cases-rise/12428704

I think if it gets into high density housing it's quite difficult to control. I'm looking at Singapore.

wellygary

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#2518636 7-Jul-2020 17:00

Batman:
DS248:

Getting worse - 191 new cases in Victoria yesterday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/victoria-coronavirus-cases-rise/12428704

I think if it gets into high density housing it's quite difficult to control. I'm looking at Singapore.

Particularly with shared facilities, the blocks in Melbourne have shared laundries, while the Singapore dorms pretty much shared everything...

The Victorian Premier is holding a Press Conf at 5:15 NZ time, there is heavy speculation that a large part or all of Melbourne, or Victoria will go back into some form of lockdown for 4 or 6 weeks,

It destroys the chance of an all Australia.NZ Bubble any time soon.... so will Scott Morrison proceed without VIC???

tdgeek

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#2518648 7-Jul-2020 17:25

DS248:

Our second test is on day 12

But as others have said, the testing is not perfect. Also in the NSW case above, he did not have symptoms until after he left quarantine (which I think is 14 days over there, as here)

If testing is not perfect thats the way it is. You could guarantee that by another couple of Level 4's or quarantine in a locked room for 28 days but where do you draw the line? There is a cost to be 95% right, and the same cost for the last 5%. And the bubbles with Australia and Rarotonga they would never happen if it had to be perfect.

IMHO there are too many posts wanting a perfect, 100% safe outcome.

Samsung

Shop now on Samsung phones, tablets, TVs and more (affiliate link).

tdgeek

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#2518649 7-Jul-2020 17:26

Batman:
DS248:

Getting worse - 191 new cases in Victoria yesterday.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/victoria-coronavirus-cases-rise/12428704

I think if it gets into high density housing it's quite difficult to control. I'm looking at Singapore.

As they said on Sky news, these apartment blocks are vertical cruise ships.

msukiwi

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#2518659 7-Jul-2020 17:51

Melbourne just announced:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has announced Stage three restrictions will be introduced for all of Melbourne from midnight tomorrow.

"All of those metropolitan government areas, plus Mitchell Shire, will be the subject of the stay at home order from midnight tomorrow night," he said.

"That is to say much like the settings that apply to those 12 lockdown postcodes, we have seen more positive cases in those postcodes and we have also seen leakage out of those postcodes and infections in other parts of Melbourne and then when you add all those together and get an aggregate picture, we're on the cusp of something very, very bad if we don't take these steps today."

The new lockdown will last for at least six weeks.

Mr Andrews said there will be some small differences between this lockdown than the one imposed a few months ago.

"You will be able to go out to go to work if you have to, to go shopping for the things you need when you need them, to study, to provide care or to get care," he said.

"Daily exercise will be treated differently. You can't leave metropolitan Melbourne to get your daily exercise.

"There's a number of now, on the advice of the chief health officer, very low public health risk activities that will be permitted that were not permitted last time but in the most important point to make around exercise is that you can't be going on a 4-hour bushwalk hundreds of kilometres away from Melbourne.

"You can't be going fishing outside the metropolitan area, down into regional Victoria. Regional Victoria has very, very few cases and vast parts of regional Victoria have no cases. This is designed to keep it that way."

tdgeek

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#2518663 7-Jul-2020 17:54

Freaking hell, bring back Simon.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300051710/national-mp-hamish-walker-admits-passing-on-leaked-covid19-patient-info-from-former-party-president-michelle-boag

The rhetoric from Muller and now this, bring back Simon. I never liked him for a variety of reasons, but where do we draw the line on gutter politics ? We are trying to conquer and mitigate a global disaster, and we now have to read this in the news.

msukiwi

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#2518665 7-Jul-2020 17:58

Anyone hear the faint slap of a wet bus ticket coming?

Rikkitic

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#2518673 7-Jul-2020 18:10

tdgeek:

Freaking hell, bring back Simon.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300051710/national-mp-hamish-walker-admits-passing-on-leaked-covid19-patient-info-from-former-party-president-michelle-boag

The rhetoric from Muller and now this, bring back Simon. I never liked him for a variety of reasons, but where do we draw the line on gutter politics ? We are trying to conquer and mitigate a global disaster, and we now have to read this in the news.

Jeez and they go on about government incompetence and mendaciousness. If this is an example of National's new moral compass, they need to bring Paula Bennett back to raise their standards!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

KrazyKid

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#2518676 7-Jul-2020 18:16

tdgeek:
Freaking hell, bring back Simon.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300051710/national-mp-hamish-walker-admits-passing-on-leaked-covid19-patient-info-from-former-party-president-michelle-boag

The rhetoric from Muller and now this, bring back Simon. I never liked him for a variety of reasons, but where do we draw the line on gutter politics ? We are trying to conquer and mitigate a global disaster, and we now have to read this in the news.

I know this is not the politics thread but I have to agree. I don't mind Muller generally but the constant negative sniping while offering no solutions is getting on my nerves. Yes labour dropped the ball with the border initailly. But covid is an issue that needs constructive politics. And if that means if you the right thing at the expense of being elected into power, do the right thing!!!

freitasm

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#2518677 7-Jul-2020 18:16

Just showing their true blue colours. And Michelle Boag, as head of a health organisation, leaking it?

These people make a joke of our Privacy laws. And the joke is even bigger when nothing is done to get their dues for breaking the law.

Handle9

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#2518678 7-Jul-2020 18:17

tdgeek:
Freaking hell, bring back Simon.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300051710/national-mp-hamish-walker-admits-passing-on-leaked-covid19-patient-info-from-former-party-president-michelle-boag

The rhetoric from Muller and now this, bring back Simon. I never liked him for a variety of reasons, but where do we draw the line on gutter politics ? We are trying to conquer and mitigate a global disaster, and we now have to read this in the news.

What rhetoric from Mueller are you talking about?

There must be something in the water in the Clutha electorate. First Todd Barclay now this xenophobic piece of work.

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