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234 posts

Master Geek


  #2520695 10-Jul-2020 12:06
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mattwnz,

 

I know you used the prase "China for example believe"

 

Considering that China has had C19 popping up in various places anyway , the chopping board could mean anything.
European strain, well China has been dealing with returnees as has everyone else for a very long time, and a lot of them. 

 

Roll the covid dice.

 

It would be many times more likely that its another community spread into a market where it could then amplify through the enclosed nature and high number of contacts, nice comfy temperatures ? 

 

Beijing had not seen much of covid in the early phases, so people may have been naturally a little less cautious after initial emergency seemed to be over , as they felt more protected.

 

Certainly Whuan market was not the original origin either.
Just a point of spread and amplification, which is why for any other country Who/CDC etc would have sent investigators into the field taking samples to see where it may have entered the market from.
Farming villages supplying the market , etc.
Not an option for China though. 

 

 


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  #2520712 10-Jul-2020 12:44
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Batman:

 

mattwnz:

 

China for example believe they got a new outbreak from imported meat from overseas, and there were virus particles on a chopping board at a market that used to cut the meat.

 

 

I'm surprised you believe that to be a causative link (linking virus particle on chopping board to an outbreak being caused by imported salmon to be exact - i wonder where else the virus from the chopping board could have come from ... hmm)

 

 

Virus *particles*. i.e. fragments of RNA.

 

Could be from any combination of viruses and/or other RNA from meat with the same marker genes that they were testing for. Even if the RNA was from the covid-19 virus, it may well be dead fragments of RNA.

 

So it's not definitive at all that this was the origin of a disease outbreak.

 

For people who want to blame the Chinese, this will not convince them otherwise. For the Chinese and their friends, it will convice them that some other country is to blame.

 

 


 
 
 
 




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  #2520714 10-Jul-2020 12:47
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Nobody wants to blame nobody here. But linking virus fragments from chopping board and concluding that the outbreak is caused by European salmon is a bit much. At least say fishmongers all got sick and then virus found on salmon.




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2520728 10-Jul-2020 13:08
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Two new cases both in isolation.

 


Of note, both are negative at day three and both are positive at day 12. Makes you wonder:

 

1) Just how lucky were we that there were no infected people out in the community when the testing regime was not being adhered to. 

 

2) How many false positives on day 12 are there which might be slipping through that you just cannot do anything about? 

 

 

 

And another absconder, this time someone who cut a hole in a fence to go to a liquor store. 


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  #2520737 10-Jul-2020 13:21
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Batman: Nobody wants to blame nobody here.

 

Yeah, right; Tui moment. There's always people wanting to blame [insert a demographic] for all their woes.

 

 


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  #2520744 10-Jul-2020 13:29
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No words to explain how dumb this sentence is...

 

"For the 1/100th time, the reason we show so many Cases, compared to other countries that haven’t done nearly as well as we have, is that our TESTING is much bigger and better. We have tested 40,000,000 people. If we did 20,000,000 instead, Cases would be half, etc. NOT REPORTED!"

 





 

 

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Devastation by stupidity
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  #2520755 10-Jul-2020 13:39
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So if they did just one test, and that came up positive, they would have only one case and could fling the gates wide open. Great thinking, Dumbo.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


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  #2520765 10-Jul-2020 13:50
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The replies are gold

 

"We would have far fewer pregnancies if there were fewer pregnancy tests available"

 

 


Devastation by stupidity
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  #2520775 10-Jul-2020 13:53
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There would be far fewer murders if we just didn't do so damned many autopsies!

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #2520793 10-Jul-2020 14:28
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frankv:

 

Batman: Nobody wants to blame nobody here.

 

Yeah, right; Tui moment. There's always people wanting to blame [insert a demographic] for all their woes.

 

 

It's also regurgitating old news.  China's CDC stated that they thought it was unlikely - but possible - so tested salmon samples and found no viral RNA.  That was about a month ago. 


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  #2520797 10-Jul-2020 14:43
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GV27:

 

2) How many false positives on day 12 are there which might be slipping through that you just cannot do anything about? 

 

 

I presume that you mean false negatives.

 

It's a risk, but it's not as simple as based on the ~25% false negative per test risk, they'd also need to be fully asymptomatic, then there's some evidence that true asymptomatic cases don't pass the infection on very often. (WHO got slammed for suggesting this - another problem with the subject being politicised - as if it was then "impossible" to contain using isolation/quarantine, then in a way that justifies the poor response to the pandemic in many countries).

 

Anyway, if you wanted to conduct an experiment, NZ is the ideal place.  If it goes wrong (as it could), then a "plan B" better be in place instantly.

 

 


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  #2520807 10-Jul-2020 15:02
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Fred99:

 

I presume that you mean false negatives.

 

It's a risk, but it's not as simple as based on the ~25% false negative per test risk, they'd also need to be fully asymptomatic, then there's some evidence that true asymptomatic cases don't pass the infection on very often. (WHO got slammed for suggesting this - another problem with the subject being politicised - as if it was then "impossible" to contain using isolation/quarantine, then in a way that justifies the poor response to the pandemic in many countries).

 

Anyway, if you wanted to conduct an experiment, NZ is the ideal place.  If it goes wrong (as it could), then a "plan B" better be in place instantly.

 

 

Yes, derp. False positives. From memory friends who have been through quarantine told me that they had a phone call with a nurse every other day, and on alternate days their temperatures were checked. They weren't tested as part of their two week period but that was in place then, so you figure they'd pick up most symptomatic cases.

 

I just have a horrible feeling that community transmission is statistically inevitable, especially if more and more people start returning. Between the fence jumpers and false negatives, I know there's little that can be done, but the risk is never really zero. 


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  #2520816 10-Jul-2020 15:17
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GV27:

 

I just have a horrible feeling that community transmission is statistically inevitable, especially if more and more people start returning. Between the fence jumpers and false negatives, I know there's little that can be done, but the risk is never really zero. 

 

 

I do too - though it's fair to say I'm a bit pessimistic and have been since the start of this pandemic.

 

Problem with using stats is to calculate risk of introducing CT, they'd need more information about how contagious any asymptomatic cases who will inevitably slip through may be. I'd be happier if they were to do a quick antibody test on all - just before they were released.  So those tests can give false positives - but for those people who test positive - look at them harder.   I guess the problem with that is the more sensitive the test - the more false positives - the less sensitive, the longer it may take from time of infection for antibody levels to be detected.

 

 


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  #2520819 10-Jul-2020 15:27
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GV27:

 

 

 

I just have a horrible feeling that community transmission is statistically inevitable, especially if more and more people start returning. Between the fence jumpers and false negatives, I know there's little that can be done, but the risk is never really zero. 

 

 

I agree. It can never be zero, not unless you do 5 million tests a week on us. My faith is that we can contain any outbreaks. We hardly got any CT when we started getting cases, same with Level 3. If we did, then the whole country is clean and focus on ring fencing where it turned up, all the resource can go there.

 

But your right its never zero


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