2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2525187 18-Jul-2020 14:16

Dingbatt:

Shouldn’t the deaths lag the infections by about two weeks though? If deaths are up 43% from a fortnight ago and now infections are up another 43% then in a fortnight from now......wow!

Yep its unreal. Of those deaths, when they got infected 14 days ago the new cases of up 43% was just starting to grow. Its like Victoria, a couple of weeks ago, the Australia cases was about 7000 odd. Now Victoria alone is 5000 One state is about to double the whole country isn matter of a short couple of weeks of the new outbreak

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Handle9

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#2525188 18-Jul-2020 14:16

Fred99:
Handle9:

Yawn, ignoring the point.

Do you mean the point that if you "open up" when locally the pandemic is under control, you're making a conscious decision to just allow many people to die?

You are if you have no effective tracking and tracing at scale, can only use brute force isolation and no ability to scale.

There will be a serious outbreak in NZ again at some point. How do you deal with that without a lockdown?

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#2525212 18-Jul-2020 15:28

Handle9: I know of a number of redundancies that happened recently that may have even avoided had the parent company management been able to visit.

What is New Zealands plan to keep things moving, other than subsidies? This isn't about the next 3 months, it's likely a multi year problem. Many billions of dollars have been taken out of the New Zealand economy and it's not coming back. Those subsidies are stopping soon so what happens next?

I find the above arguments the most facile arguments ever.
So because management couldn’t use zoom then a number of folks were made redundant. Really??? That’s the best argument they could come up with when practically the whole world learned to use Zoom.

And then complaining about not reopening the country when the world is still seeing significant increases in cases and deaths.

I really hope you put forward anyone you know and care about up who is old or sick to be first to be sacrificed on the altar of the economy.

If you looked at the cases worldwide you would know we are not even 10-20% into this. With no effective therapeutic or vaccine on the horizon and the economy for the most part doing extremely well in comparison and being the envy of all other developed countries then why on earth would you want to throw that all away for the sake of 8% of our economy which is represented by tourism??

It just makes no sense.

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#2525256 18-Jul-2020 15:56

Handle9:
Fred99:

Do you mean the point that if you "open up" when locally the pandemic is under control, you're making a conscious decision to just allow many people to die?

You are if you have no effective tracking and tracing at scale, can only use brute force isolation and no ability to scale.

There will be a serious outbreak in NZ again at some point. How do you deal with that without a lockdown?

What country actually has effective tracking that has been able to successfully re-eliminate the virus again, without a full lockdown again? Australias tracing doesn't seem to be able to cope, and it all seems to be a manual process, with having to ring people up like NZs. Many people these days don't answer their phones. I don't think it would take too long before tracing is overwhelmed.

This is something I heard Rob Fyfe discussing on Q&A and his concerns with tracing systems, which was one reason he was in support of this special tracing device that all NZers should be given. That will tell if someone has been in close contacted at a particular time and date, allowing people to be more easily traced instantly, rather than relying on a app, that on'y a small percentage are currently using. But apparently it doesn't trace the location for privacy. For such a system to be effective , I understand it needs to be about 80% which the app obviously isn't.

If there is a community case in NZ that occurs, then depending on how it is linked, I can see there being a witchhunt from the media. Then possibly an investigation to quieten things down. The only way I can see us getting new cases or an outbreak in NZ, is from people returning from overseas or flight crew, and a hole in the processes.

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#2525259 18-Jul-2020 16:09

BarTender:
Handle9: I know of a number of redundancies that happened recently that may have even avoided had the parent company management been able to visit.

What is New Zealands plan to keep things moving, other than subsidies? This isn't about the next 3 months, it's likely a multi year problem. Many billions of dollars have been taken out of the New Zealand economy and it's not coming back. Those subsidies are stopping soon so what happens next?

I find the above arguments the most facile arguments ever.
So because management couldn’t use zoom then a number of folks were made redundant. Really??? That’s the best argument they could come up with when practically the whole world learned to use Zoom.

And then complaining about not reopening the country when the world is still seeing significant increases in cases and deaths.

I really hope you put forward anyone you know and care about up who is old or sick to be first to be sacrificed on the altar of the economy.

If you looked at the cases worldwide you would know we are not even 10-20% into this. With no effective therapeutic or vaccine on the horizon and the economy for the most part doing extremely well in comparison and being the envy of all other developed countries then why on earth would you want to throw that all away for the sake of 8% of our economy which is represented by tourism??

It just makes no sense.

No you just don't appear to understand how business works, particularly in a multinational environment. Ultimately people do business with people and if they lose confidence in the people then they make decisions like redundancies. You may believe that a zoom call is an adequate way to convey nuance and emotion but ultimately it doesn't work that way. It's better than nothing but you are far more likely to convince someone in person than over a call. It is even more dramatic when you start talking about customers.

The exposure to international business is far more than tourism. As has been detailed earlier international education has a huge footprint and there are all sorts of inbound and outbound commercial activities that need personal contact. There is zero ability to scale the provisions at the moment so how can this be worked around?

You are also making the mistake of thinking digitally. It doesn't need to be completely open borders but are there may be other ways to manage this. Should NZ just sit on its hands or should it be working on looking at this? Should it be significantly increasing its track and trace capabilities using technology?

Clark, Gluckman and Fyfe aren't fools, they are serious people making serious points. Dismissing what they say out of hand is stupid.

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#2525260 18-Jul-2020 16:12

mattwnz:

What country actually has effective tracking that has been able to successfully re-eliminate the virus again, without a full lockdown again? Australias tracing doesn't seem to be able to cope, and it all seems to be a manual process, with having to ring people up like NZs. Many people these days don't answer their phones or. I don't think it would take too long before the tracing is overwhelmed.

This is something I heard Rob Fyfe discussing on Q&A and his concerns with tracing systems, which was one reason he was in support of this special tracing device that all NZers should be given. That will tell if someone has been in close contacted at a particular time and date, allowing people to be more easily traced instantly, rather than relying on a app, that on'y a small percentage are currently using. But apparently it doesn't trace the location for privacy. For such a system to be effective , I understand it needs to be about 80% which the app obviously isn't.

If there is a community case in NZ that occurs, then depending on how it is linked, I can see there being a witchhunt from the media. Then possibly an investigation to quieten things down. The only way I can see us getting new cases or an outbreak in NZ, is from people returning from overseas or flight crew, and a hole in the processes.

Singapore is rolling out device based tracking technology. Sam Morgan has proposed the same. Maybe it's the right approach, maybe not but for sure the QR nonsense isn't working.

Of course there is going to be a witch hunt in the media, quite rightly, and of course cases will come from overseas. Things will go wrong, they always do. If there is no adequate planning then you have a large scale lockdown.

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#2525261 18-Jul-2020 16:29

Japan "extremely concerned" as 136 COVID cases reported on U.S. bases

CBS News by Ramy Inocencio

The biggest coronavirus outbreak within the U.S. military anywhere in the world continues to grow. U.S. Forces Japan confirmed Wednesday another 36 infections among troops on the Japanese island of Okinawa, bringing the total to at least 136 since the U.S. military reported its first cases there last week.

Until then, all of Okinawa had seen only 148 confirmed cases of COVID-19 since February, with Japanese authorities managing to contain the spread of the virus that causes the disease.

In a sign of the growing tension between Japanese officials and the U.S. military in Okinawa, Defense Minister Taro Kono has pointed to "several problems" with the U.S. response to the pandemic. He notably avoided giving specifics when pressed by reporters earlier this week.

Local media in Okinawa have reported that July 4th celebrations, both on and off the U.S. bases, which hundreds if not thousands of people attended, may be at least partly to blame. But medical experts warn the virus may have spread through multiple other vectors.
...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-okinawa-covid-extremely-concerned-growing-coronavirus-outbreak-on-us-military-bases/

ezbee

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#2525264 18-Jul-2020 16:37

Another voice from doctor in Victoria questioning viability of suppression strategy.

I'm a doctor on Melbourne's coronavirus front line. Suppression has failed — we need an elimination strategy now
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-17/coronavirus-melbourne-doctor-suppression-or-elimination/12462518

""
If suppression has failed in Victoria, one of the most cautious states, it can fail anywhere.

From my own perspective — widely shared by my colleagues — suppression cannot win. Coexisting with COVID-19 means lives lost, repeated lockdown and gripping uncertainty, which will take a giant toll on our collective mental health and undermine the confidence necessary for economic recovery.

Suppression has failed because it underestimates this virus, it overestimates our ability to control it, and it fundamentally misunderstands human nature.
""

Key events

1hhour agoTwo more Victorians dead amid 217 new cases
2hhours agoVictoria records 217 new cases, two dead
3hhours ago45 cases tied to Crossroads Hotel cluster in NSW
4hhours agoFederal parliament sittings to be scrapped
5hhours agoNationals MP calls for hard border around Melbourne

ezbee

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#2525268 18-Jul-2020 16:42

kingdragonfly: Japan "extremely concerned" as 136 COVID cases reported on U.S. bases

CBS News by Ramy Inocencio

The biggest coronavirus outbreak within the U.S. military anywhere in the world continues to grow. U.S. Forces Japan confirmed Wednesday another 36 infections among troops on the Japanese island of Okinawa, bringing the total to at least 136 since the U.S. military reported its first cases there last week.

Until then, all of Okinawa had seen only 148 confirmed cases of COVID-19 since February, with Japanese authorities managing to contain the spread of the virus that causes the disease.

In a sign of the growing tension between Japanese officials and the U.S. military in Okinawa, Defense Minister Taro Kono has pointed to "several problems" with the U.S. response to the pandemic. He notably avoided giving specifics when pressed by reporters earlier this week.

Local media in Okinawa have reported that July 4th celebrations, both on and off the U.S. bases, which hundreds if not thousands of people attended, may be at least partly to blame. But medical experts warn the virus may have spread through multiple other vectors.
...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-okinawa-covid-extremely-concerned-growing-coronavirus-outbreak-on-us-military-bases/

Japan was operating a 'high trust' model for entry into Japan, being a largely orderly society.
They did not count on the fact you 'may' be able to herd cats , but you can't herd Americans.
After agreeing to drive to isolation with no contact, they took internal flight and no isolation.
Japanese must be very fed up with this behavior.

Three people with virus flouted quarantine, flew to Iwakuni base
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13546977

Edit: Heard of Cats, Herd of Cows error.

frankv

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#2525278 18-Jul-2020 17:16

Dingbatt:
So according the the CDC, the current mortality rate in the US from PIC (Pneumonia Influenza Covid) has reduced to just above the seasonal baseline and epidemic threshold after a massive spike around week 18-20 (final graph in this report).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Can someone explain why this has trended down so sharply when all the news indicates the opposite?

I noticed the same thing. According to worldometer infections are rising exponentially but deaths are about constant. Something has changed about 6 weeks ago.

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#2525279 18-Jul-2020 17:22

Handle9: No you just don't appear to understand how business works, particularly in a multinational environment. Ultimately people do business with people and if they lose confidence in the people then they make decisions like redundancies. You may believe that a zoom call is an adequate way to convey nuance and emotion but ultimately it doesn't work that way. It's better than nothing but you are far more likely to convince someone in person than over a call. It is even more dramatic when you start talking about customers.

The exposure to international business is far more than tourism. As has been detailed earlier international education has a huge footprint and there are all sorts of inbound and outbound commercial activities that need personal contact. There is zero ability to scale the provisions at the moment so how can this be worked around?

You are also making the mistake of thinking digitally. It doesn't need to be completely open borders but are there may be other ways to manage this. Should NZ just sit on its hands or should it be working on looking at this? Should it be significantly increasing its track and trace capabilities using technology?

Clark, Gluckman and Fyfe aren't fools, they are serious people making serious points. Dismissing what they say out of hand is stupid.

Do you *HONESTLY* believe that NZ government is sitting on it's hands right now?? Honestly?? As the rest of the world are all opening up all their boarders right now to let everyone and anyone in. No.. of course they aren't. To say so would be out of hand and stupid.

The whole trans-tasman "bubble" being push a month ago was facile then as it is now. Both countries need to agree on protocols on how travel will realistically resume, until both countries agree there can be no plan.

Right now NZ is in the very enviable position to have zero community transmission. And there are few other developed countries still actively trading, managing returning citizens and still maintaining zero community transmission.

I never said digital communication was easy, or not understanding of how business works. Of course it's difficult in this new normal we find ourselves in, but to imply that business travelers want to be able to travel as normal as their country of origin is completely fine with outbound and returning citizens is a nonsense. To imply that all of this is because the NZ government is stopping inbound travel completely ignores the possibilities for outbound travel which is still significantly restricted from most countries.

So in short, you find me a business person prepared to jump on a flight risking their own health for a 1 hour meeting in downtown Auckland to then fly back to their country of origin and I will call BS.

and

Handle9

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#2525289 18-Jul-2020 18:34

BarTender:

Handle9: No you just don't appear to understand how business works, particularly in a multinational environment. Ultimately people do business with people and if they lose confidence in the people then they make decisions like redundancies. You may believe that a zoom call is an adequate way to convey nuance and emotion but ultimately it doesn't work that way. It's better than nothing but you are far more likely to convince someone in person than over a call. It is even more dramatic when you start talking about customers.

The exposure to international business is far more than tourism. As has been detailed earlier international education has a huge footprint and there are all sorts of inbound and outbound commercial activities that need personal contact. There is zero ability to scale the provisions at the moment so how can this be worked around?

You are also making the mistake of thinking digitally. It doesn't need to be completely open borders but are there may be other ways to manage this. Should NZ just sit on its hands or should it be working on looking at this? Should it be significantly increasing its track and trace capabilities using technology?

Clark, Gluckman and Fyfe aren't fools, they are serious people making serious points. Dismissing what they say out of hand is stupid.

Do you *HONESTLY* believe that NZ government is sitting on it's hands right now?? Honestly?? As the rest of the world are all opening up all their boarders right now to let everyone and anyone in. No.. of course they aren't. To say so would be out of hand and stupid.

The whole trans-tasman "bubble" being push a month ago was facile then as it is now. Both countries need to agree on protocols on how travel will realistically resume, until both countries agree there can be no plan.

Right now NZ is in the very enviable position to have zero community transmission. And there are few other developed countries still actively trading, managing returning citizens and still maintaining zero community transmission.

I never said digital communication was easy, or not understanding of how business works. Of course it's difficult in this new normal we find ourselves in, but to imply that business travelers want to be able to travel as normal as their country of origin is completely fine with outbound and returning citizens is a nonsense. To imply that all of this is because the NZ government is stopping inbound travel completely ignores the possibilities for outbound travel which is still significantly restricted from most countries.

So in short, you find me a business person prepared to jump on a flight risking their own health for a 1 hour meeting in downtown Auckland to then fly back to their country of origin and I will call BS.

Once again you are making this digital.

Should there be completely open borders? No. Can they be more open than they are now? Probably - I'm not delusional enough to pretend that there are absolute answers. Can it happen tomorrow. No. Can it happen in 6 months? Maybe. Is there enough work going into these questions? I don't believe so but I may be wrong. It's not a facile discussion which is why it was raised by some people who aren't pushing any particular agenda. Fyfe, Clark and Gluckmann aren't looking for a gig or trying to make money out of this.

Do you HONESTLY believe that the New Zealand government have managed this whole crisis from a plan? They made it up as they went, which was entirely necessary and appropriate. At the moment they are still very reactive. What is my evidence? The management of the border is still not adequate. Community testing is woeful. I don't particularly view that as a huge particular criticism of the bureaucracy or government, no government was prepared for this. If New Zealand is to come out of the crisis in the best possible position it needs to be better.

There clearly isn't sufficient capacity to manage the border the way they are now. How can that be scaled up?

I think at the moment that the political arm of the government is focused on winning the election and then figuring out what they do next. It's an observation rather than a criticism - politicians have to be elected if they want to stay as politicians.

Europe and Asia are getting back to a new normal. It isn't what it used to be but many countries are permitting significantly more free movement and this makes them more attractive for business. I also don't believe that the New Zealand public is ready for an honest conversation about the economic implications of staying completely closed to the world. The economic situation will need to get much worse before that can happen. I hope that won't happen but I think it will.

freitasm

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#2525291 18-Jul-2020 18:39

Handle9:

Europe and Asia are getting back to a new normal. It isn't what it used to be but many countries are permitting significantly more free movement and this makes them more attractive for business. I also don't believe that the New Zealand public is ready for an honest conversation about the economic implications of staying completely closed to the world. The economic situation will need to get much worse before that can happen. I hope that won't happen but I think it will.

See how this is working for Spain, letting British tourist come in for summer.

I am sure all these people you listed are smart folks but yes, they are in for the opportunities.

Can we manage borders better? Sure, maybe. Can we scale at the moment? No. Should we scale at the moment? What about we wait until a wave of citizens and permanent residents come back before we worry about scaling up for non-citizens?

Also, don't come with the "Oh, we can let people come in if they sign a document saying they will self-isolate" because you know they won't. People lie. Just look at the mess Americans are making in Japan now.

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Handle9

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#2525294 18-Jul-2020 18:46

freitasm:

Handle9:

Europe and Asia are getting back to a new normal. It isn't what it used to be but many countries are permitting significantly more free movement and this makes them more attractive for business. I also don't believe that the New Zealand public is ready for an honest conversation about the economic implications of staying completely closed to the world. The economic situation will need to get much worse before that can happen. I hope that won't happen but I think it will.

See how this is working for Spain, letting British tourist come in for summer.

I am sure all these people you listed are smart folks but yes, they are in for the opportunities.

Can we manage borders better? Sure, maybe. Can we scale at the moment? No. Should we scale at the moment? What about we wait until a wave of citizens and permanent residents come back before we worry about scaling up for non-citizens?

Also, don't come with the "Oh, we can let people come in if they sign a document saying they will self-isolate" because you know they won't. People lie. Just look at the mess Americans are making in Japan now.

Where did I suggest that anything should be a trust based system?

Once again this isn't digital and it's not short term. It's a completely necessary conversation to have.

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#2525295 18-Jul-2020 18:53

Handle9:

freitasm:

See how this is working for Spain, letting British tourist come in for summer.

I am sure all these people you listed are smart folks but yes, they are in for the opportunities.

Can we manage borders better? Sure, maybe. Can we scale at the moment? No. Should we scale at the moment? What about we wait until a wave of citizens and permanent residents come back before we worry about scaling up for non-citizens?

Also, don't come with the "Oh, we can let people come in if they sign a document saying they will self-isolate" because you know they won't. People lie. Just look at the mess Americans are making in Japan now.

Where did I suggest that anything should be a trust based system?

Once again this isn't digital and it's not short term. It's a completely necessary conversation to have.

You didn't. That's why I wrote "Dont' come with" - as in don't even think of suggesting it.

It is a conversation but I think the conversation has to start with "Who must enter the country" and I am siding with people that might think "citizens and residents first" instead of people who are "OMG we need people to do business here" when we have digital tools that can help. Being here is not 100% required to do business and if interferes with community health... Well so be it. Learn to do it another way. Invent another way.

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