2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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177 posts

Master Geek

#2432549 4-Mar-2020 15:36

I read between the lines a statement made a few days ago that mentioned 'buying NZ time'.

My guess is that the expectation is this thing will get out into the wild and be as common as the flu.

Buying time , gives NZ time to sort out its response learning from other countries, getting us closer to a vaccine , and enabling overseas medical response to be fine tuned so we can apply it here

While structured countries can contain the virus (China, NZ , Australia) there are many more that just can't . Maybe even the USA is in this group given the lack of access to health care for many. Sudan , Papua New Guinea, Haiti, Afgahnistan.... There are just too many people in these countries with such limited means to fight this effectively

And I dont think restricting movement between countries will work, just look at the number getting into Europe from the Middle East and Africa, or from Mexico to the USA already.

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Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2432551 4-Mar-2020 15:57

heavenlywild:

Time for us to get used to having this virus around. I suspect in the coming months panic will ease and it'll just be part of life.

It's like terrorism, sadly - can't get rid of it, but need to keep living life.

You have to be kidding.

If this becomes "normalised" and allowed to spread, then at least tens of millions of people will die globally - probably tens of thousands in NZ.

WHO is now saying case fatality rate is 3.4%. The concept that asymptomatic cases outnumber diagnosed cases and thus case fatality rate is overstated by by multiples is not being borne out - it's looking worse for that as some of the hypothetical "asymptomatic" cases developing symptoms are actually just showing a long incubation period which adds another layer of problems trying to contain outbreaks.

Once hospital saturation is reached, then basically all of the 5% of symptomatic diagnosed cases who end up needing ICU will all die, and of the 15% who have severe symptoms requiring hospitalisation can't get hospital treatment, then an unknown number will probably end up dying as well - so the final case fatality rate could be much higher than it is now.

Then, of survivors of the severe pneumonia/ARS, it looks like many may have ongoing health problems due to lung fibrosis and probably also other health issues.

About the only positives so far are that in some countries they've managed to contain it - using extreme measures - and that "it could have been worse" in terms of being an even more lethal pandemic of something just as contagious.

It's looking far more like a possible repeat 1918/20 flu pandemic scenario than it did a fortnight ago.

Underestimating that possibility is stupid and dangerous.

Call me a "doomer" or whatever - I'll be ecstatic to be proven wrong.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2432553 4-Mar-2020 16:03

ben28:

My guess is that the expectation is this thing will get out into the wild and be as common as the flu.

If containment fails, it'll be far worse than that. It's just as contagious, but unlike "seasonal flu" there's probably zero herd immunity.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2432555 4-Mar-2020 16:04

frankv:

A bit of thought would persuade public health officials that not testing people to reduce "confirmed" cases is a false economy. You would have a week or so of looking relatively good, while actual numbers would grow exponentially, as the disease was rapidly transmitted from one undiagnosed person to another. Pretty soon, huge numbers of "clinically diagnosed" patients would appear in the stats, and a public health disaster to cope with. I suspect this is what happened in Iran.

I suspect this is also partly what has occurred in the US in places . The US is one of my biggest worry's with this, because they don't appear to have free healthcare like NZ does for this. They really should make it free for all for this type of event.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2432559 4-Mar-2020 16:14

ben28:

I read between the lines a statement made a few days ago that mentioned 'buying NZ time'.

My guess is that the expectation is this thing will get out into the wild and be as common as the flu.

Buying time , gives NZ time to sort out its response learning from other countries, getting us closer to a vaccine , and enabling overseas medical response to be fine tuned so we can apply it here

While structured countries can contain the virus (China, NZ , Australia) there are many more that just can't . Maybe even the USA is in this group given the lack of access to health care for many. Sudan , Papua New Guinea, Haiti, Afgahnistan.... There are just too many people in these countries with such limited means to fight this effectively

And I dont think restricting movement between countries will work, just look at the number getting into Europe from the Middle East and Africa, or from Mexico to the USA already.

They have to hold it off for at least a year before there is a vaccine, otherwise it potentially could kill tens of thousands of NZers, and hospitilise 1 in 6, and potentially cause many lifelong health effects, should it get a foothold. This is not like the flu. That is part of the problem, some people in the media have been painting it like it isn't much worse than the normal flu . I again saw an quote in the media today incorrectly saying the death rate from the normal flu is 1%, whereas the death rate from this is 3.4%. The death rate from the flue in countries like the US is 0.1%. I don't think many peoples maths is very good.

Restricting movement could have stopped this early on. It is coming in through our airports, so if we are not able to identify all cases as they walk in the doors, then we have to be monitoring all those people in some way. At the moment it appear they are classing different people as different risk groups based on where they have traveled from

wellygary

7388 posts

Uber Geek

#2432562 4-Mar-2020 16:15

mattwnz:

I suspect this is also partly what has occurred in the US in places . The US is one of my biggest worry's with this, because they don't appear to have free healthcare like NZ does for this. They really should make it free for all for this type of event.

The US is still a developed country, and when push comes to shove if they find huge outbreaks in communities with no access to medical services they can throw organised military and other state resources at the problem,

it has a highly developed medical system, it just lacks universal access..

Iran is a totally different kettle of fish and id of more concern..

What will be interesting in about 2 weeks time is whether NZ relaxes/removes its Chinese travel ban, it certainly appears that it is well contained and may be close to burning itself out there....

Scott3

3340 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2432570 4-Mar-2020 16:19

Conflicting information contained in stuff artice

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/120007217/coronavirus-westlake-high-schools-sent-no-risk-to-students-letter-about-confirmed-case

Auckland Regional Public Health Service: "While this is concerning for everyone, there is no risk to students, staff or others at the schools."

Education Minister Chris Hipkins: "The schools the two students [of the infected woman] attended have this at hand. There's a very, very low probability of the virus being transmitted at these schools and neither of the students are showing symptoms."

Not very reassuring when the officials can't agree if there some or no risk...

ARPHS: "Please understand that people are not considered at risk if they have been close to a contact – as the contact does not have the disease. Contacts of contacts do not have to take any action such as isolating themselves."

I don't know how the statement in bold can be made. It is well known that contacts could be infected, and there is no way of testing untill they become symptomatic. The last sentence is however consistent with the advice of the USA CDC.

There seems to be a great deal of uncertainly, The WHO says this:

"Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission. "

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2432609 4-Mar-2020 17:07

MikeB4:

A working treatment will be found long before a vaccine is found, tested, approved, manufactured, distributed and administered.

This is hopefully true.

I read that initial results for treatment with Remdesivir aren't looking as promising as hoped - but take that with a grain of salt. "For profit" healthcare for something like this attracts market manipulation - be that false hope or shorting stocks.

vexxxboy

4089 posts

Uber Geek

#2432650 4-Mar-2020 17:48

Fred99:

heavenlywild:

Time for us to get used to having this virus around. I suspect in the coming months panic will ease and it'll just be part of life.

It's like terrorism, sadly - can't get rid of it, but need to keep living life.

You have to be kidding.

If this becomes "normalised" and allowed to spread, then at least tens of millions of people will die globally - probably tens of thousands in NZ.

WHO is now saying case fatality rate is 3.4%. The concept that asymptomatic cases outnumber diagnosed cases and thus case fatality rate is overstated by by multiples is not being borne out - it's looking worse for that as some of the hypothetical "asymptomatic" cases developing symptoms are actually just showing a long incubation period which adds another layer of problems trying to contain outbreaks.

Once hospital saturation is reached, then basically all of the 5% of symptomatic diagnosed cases who end up needing ICU will all die, and of the 15% who have severe symptoms requiring hospitalisation can't get hospital treatment, then an unknown number will probably end up dying as well - so the final case fatality rate could be much higher than it is now.

Then, of survivors of the severe pneumonia/ARS, it looks like many may have ongoing health problems due to lung fibrosis and probably also other health issues.

About the only positives so far are that in some countries they've managed to contain it - using extreme measures - and that "it could have been worse" in terms of being an even more lethal pandemic of something just as contagious.

It's looking far more like a possible repeat 1918/20 flu pandemic scenario than it did a fortnight ago.

Underestimating that possibility is stupid and dangerous.

Call me a "doomer" or whatever - I'll be ecstatic to be proven wrong.

that is a death rate averaged out , if you are under 40 it is only .4% chance of dying, if you are in your 50's and healthy then it is only 1.4 %. if you are in your 20's there is only a 8% chance of catching it. The only people that really need to worry are the over 60's with underlying health problems.

a proper breakdown

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2432679 4-Mar-2020 18:18

vexxxboy:

The only people that really need to worry are the over 60's with underlying health problems.

...and their children, their spouses/partners, nieces, nephews, friends, workmates etc. - or anybody younger with health conditions predisposing them to far higher mortality rate. Who cares eh?

I just watched TV1 news, an "expert" (i suspect in PR) from Johns Hopkins - repeat that CFR is 1% (when WHO say it's much higher) and that even 1% is too high - as there are "many asymptomatic" cases - which WHO is now also refuting.

vexxxboy

4089 posts

Uber Geek

#2432727 4-Mar-2020 18:47

Fred99:

vexxxboy:

The only people that really need to worry are the over 60's with underlying health problems.

...and their children, their spouses/partners, nieces, nephews, friends, workmates etc. - or anybody younger with health conditions predisposing them to far higher mortality rate. Who cares eh?

I just watched TV1 news, an "expert" (i suspect in PR) from Johns Hopkins - repeat that CFR is 1% (when WHO say it's much higher) and that even 1% is too high - as there are "many asymptomatic" cases - which WHO is now also refuting.

you were the one spouting Armageddon was near , i just set out the facts about the virus that the Chinese found and the people with the most to worry about were over 60 .

Common sense is not as common as you think.

frednz

1452 posts

Uber Geek

#2432729 4-Mar-2020 18:52

Because some people are saying that the corona virus is a very serious threat and could take-off here, where can I buy a face mask in preparation for this possibility? I've tried several chemists, supermarkets, garden centers and hardware shops, but none of these have any in stock and they can't tell you when they will be available.

The Government keeps telling us how well prepared NZ is to deal with this virus, but if it's impossible for people to buy such a basic and important item as a face mask, then isn't it time something constructive was done about this situation?

tdgeek

28624 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2432735 4-Mar-2020 18:56

frednz: Because some people are saying that the corona virus is a very serious threat and could take-off here, where can I buy a face mask in preparation for this possibility? I've tried several chemists, supermarkets, garden centers and hardware shops, but none of these have any in stock and they can't tell you when these will be available.

The Government keeps telling us how well prepared NZ is to deal with this virus, but if it's impossible for people to buy such a basic and important item such as a face mask, then isn't time something constructive was done about this situation?

I guess they could storm the homes that panic-bought so many masks they are sold out

Face masks are apparently not that good

There is another thread devoted to the current Government, if the key need is that, rather than masks. Masks and their low level of protection has been well covered here.. You need N95. They won't stop you inhaling infected peoples water droplets expelled from coughing or sneezing.

frednz

1452 posts

Uber Geek

#2432737 4-Mar-2020 19:03

tdgeek:
frednz: Because some people are saying that the corona virus is a very serious threat and could take-off here, where can I buy a face mask in preparation for this possibility? I've tried several chemists, supermarkets, garden centers and hardware shops, but none of these have any in stock and they can't tell you when these will be available.

The Government keeps telling us how well prepared NZ is to deal with this virus, but if it's impossible for people to buy such a basic and important item such as a face mask, then isn't time something constructive was done about this situation?

I guess they could storm the homes that panic-bought so many masks they are sold out

Face masks are apparently not that good

There is another thread devoted to the current Government, if the key need is that, rather than masks. Masks and their low level of protection has been well covered here.. You need N95. They won't stop you inhaling infected peoples water droplets expelled from coughing or sneezing.

It's a very simple question, where can you buy face masks, I guess there must be hundreds of people who just want a sensible answer to this basic question.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2432740 4-Mar-2020 19:11

vexxxboy:

you were the one spouting Armageddon was near , i just set out the facts

No I didn't - and no you didn't.

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