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mattwnz
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  #2533881 3-Aug-2020 18:01
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duckDecoy:

 

GV27:

 

Eh, I am resigned to the fact that CT is likely to either be caused by an abscondee (less likely) or a false day 12 negative test (small chance but not impossible).

 

 

There are guards and moonlighting nurses and staff etc going into these hotels every day and then back out home into the community.  I would be guessing that's going to be the most likely avenue?

 

 

 

 

I have hear the argument that they are all wearing PPE and taking precautions. But even doctors and nurses wearing PPE can get it.. There are other potential holes too, such as airline flight staff and diplomats who apparently don't need to go into isolation hotels. So the risk IMO is there for it to get into the community at some point. The issue is detecting it as soon as it occurs, which relies on testing in the community around potential risk areas. The last thing we need is a random case int eh community being detected that can't be linked to someone coming into NZ, which started to occur, prior to heading into level 3 then 4. Based on the failure of Australians tracing, I don't have much faith that our tracing ability will have improved substantially, and tracing is essentially the backstop. If that fails, then a lock-down is really the only option as per Melbourne, and IMO they have been too slow to implement it.


Rikkitic
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  #2533886 3-Aug-2020 18:15
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It is a waiting game. The longer we can put off a new wave, the better the chance that a vaccine will save our butts.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


sbiddle
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  #2533957 3-Aug-2020 18:59
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mattwnz:

 

The fact is the WHO has already said that there is no evidence of long term immunity once one has had the virus,

 

 

There has been a huge amount of research and papers in the last couple of months that blow this assumption out of the water.

 

If there is no long term immunity a vaccine is also going to be pretty worthless as well so using your argument we may as well just all accept it's here for ever..


Rikkitic
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  #2533972 3-Aug-2020 19:05
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sbiddle:

 

If there is no long term immunity a vaccine is also going to be pretty worthless as well so using your argument we may as well just all accept it's here for ever..

 

 

I don't understand that argument. My cats need vaccinations every year but during that year they are protected. 

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


tdgeek
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  #2533974 3-Aug-2020 19:07
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mattwnz:

 

then a lock-down is really the only option as per Melbourne, and IMO they have been too slow to implement it.

 

 

They never implemented it. Lockdown means lockdown. It doesn't mean go to work and grab a haircut. Now, after all this time and death, they have a proper lockdown, and its for 6 weeks. Everything prior was a waste


tdgeek
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  #2533976 3-Aug-2020 19:13
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Rikkitic:

 

sbiddle:

 

If there is no long term immunity a vaccine is also going to be pretty worthless as well so using your argument we may as well just all accept it's here for ever..

 

 

I don't understand that argument. My cats need vaccinations every year but during that year they are protected. 

 

 

 

 

I think the premise is that antibodies develop immunity. That doesnt seem to happening very well in the wild. A vaccine is an injection of home made anti-bodies that also recognise Covid-19, so it does seem valid that that wont be any more effective. It seem very complex that antibodies recognise this virus and shut it down. I guess us lay people see a vaccine as a mild version of the disease and job done as thats the norm for past diseases, but this time, it seems vastly more problematic. 


sbiddle
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  #2533977 3-Aug-2020 19:13
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tdgeek:

 

mattwnz:

 

then a lock-down is really the only option as per Melbourne, and IMO they have been too slow to implement it.

 

 

They never implemented it. Lockdown means lockdown. It doesn't mean go to work and grab a haircut. Now, after all this time and death, they have a proper lockdown, and its for 6 weeks. Everything prior was a waste

 

 

Everything prior was not a waste. Until mid June things were looking great for Australia with very few cases and no untraceable community transmission.

 

They had achieved exactly what they had set out to achieve.. Then everything fell apart with several cases of community spread from isolation hotels and it was game over.

 

 


 
 
 
 


tdgeek
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  #2533978 3-Aug-2020 19:16
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sbiddle:

 

 

 

Everything prior was not a waste. Until mid June things were looking great for Australia with very few cases and no untraceable community transmission.

 

They had achieved exactly what they had set out to achieve.. Then everything fell apart with several cases of community spread from isolation hotels and it was game over.

 

 

 


Doesnt that mean that going after containment was a recipe for the eventual outbreak? Not going after eradication means they are happy to have it in the community, but under control. It seems a big task to maintain that control. Eventually cases will not be at the hair salon but will be at a gathering and spread wide and quickly. 


Fred99
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  #2533994 3-Aug-2020 19:59
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sbiddle:

 

mattwnz:

 

The fact is the WHO has already said that there is no evidence of long term immunity once one has had the virus,

 

 

There has been a huge amount of research and papers in the last couple of months that blow this assumption out of the water.

 

If there is no long term immunity a vaccine is also going to be pretty worthless as well so using your argument we may as well just all accept it's here for ever..

 

 

It wasn't an assumption (by WHO) - it was a factual statement that the media couldn't understand.

 

There was no - and still is no - evidence of long-term immunity, just a growing expectation from animal trials and observation (no confirmed re-infections) that there is immunity from candidate vaccines - and that it lasts for "a while". 

 

You can't get evidence of long term (say 5+ years) immunity in humans for some disease that's only been around for months.


sbiddle
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  #2533995 3-Aug-2020 20:11
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Fred99:

 

You can't get evidence of long term (say 5+ years) immunity in humans for some disease that's only been around for months.

 

 

The doctors who wrote the big Singaporean paper last month certainly don't agree with that view. To quote them -

 

We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP. Surprisingly, we also frequently detected SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19 or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients (n=37). SARS-CoV-2 T cells in uninfected donors exhibited a different pattern of immunodominance, frequently targeting the ORF-1-coded proteins NSP7 and 13 as well as the NP structural protein.

 

 

 


Fred99
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  #2533996 3-Aug-2020 20:13
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tdgeek:

 

I think the premise is that antibodies develop immunity. That doesnt seem to happening very well in the wild. A vaccine is an injection of home made anti-bodies that also recognise Covid-19, so it does seem valid that that wont be any more effective. It seem very complex that antibodies recognise this virus and shut it down. I guess us lay people see a vaccine as a mild version of the disease and job done as thats the norm for past diseases, but this time, it seems vastly more problematic. 

 

 

A vaccine is an injection of something that triggers an immune response - including production of antibodies. (so inactivated or live "mild" virus, modified - as in the "Oxford trial" vaccine using a harmless adenovirus that's been altered to trigger a C-19 specific response, or just proteins that the virus needs to survive that your immune system will attack).  So it's your own immune system triggered to fight the infection.

 

You can make a treatment from "antibodies" - that's what's happening with recovered C-19 patient plasma transfusions for severe cases.  You could also make targeted bioengineered/synthetic antibodies as a treatment - in the same way targeted (and often crazy expensive)  therapies are used for a few cancers.  These aren't using your immune system to fight it.

 

 


Fred99
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  #2533998 3-Aug-2020 20:17
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sbiddle:

 

Fred99:

 

You can't get evidence of long term (say 5+ years) immunity in humans for some disease that's only been around for months.

 

 

The doctors who wrote the big Singaporean paper last month certainly don't agree with that view. To quote them -

 

"We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP. Surprisingly, we also frequently detected SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19 or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients (n=37). SARS-CoV-2 T cells in uninfected donors exhibited a different pattern of immunodominance, frequently targeting the ORF-1-coded proteins NSP7 and 13 as well as the NP structural protein."

 

 

Maybe/hopefully  It hasn't been tested though by exposing recovered SARS patients to SARS-CoV2, so they don't actually know - so it falls short of being evidence of duration of immunity - if it even exists (cross immunity from SARS).

 

I'm an optimist on this by the way.


sbiddle
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  #2534000 3-Aug-2020 20:20
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Fred99:

 

Maybe/hopefully  It hasn't been tested though by exposing recovered SARS patients to SARS-CoV2, so they don't actually know.

 

I'm an optimist on this by the way.

 

 

But we haven't tested any Covid-19 vaccines by exposing people to Covid-19 either.

 

What does seem pretty clearly now is that there is definately some form of immunity being experienced by some people to Covid-19, which is probably why 50% + of people who get it can have very minor systems or even be totally asymptomatic.


Fred99
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  #2534002 3-Aug-2020 20:27
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sbiddle:

 

Fred99:

 

Maybe/hopefully  It hasn't been tested though by exposing recovered SARS patients to SARS-CoV2, so they don't actually know.

 

I'm an optimist on this by the way.

 

 

But we haven't tested any Covid-19 vaccines by exposing people to Covid-19 either.

 

What does seem pretty clearly now is that there is definately some form of immunity being experienced by some people to Covid-19, which is probably why 50% + of people who get it can have very minor systems or even be totally asymptomatic.

 

 

That's precisely what the phase 3 vaccine trials are doing - by large sample size vaccine trials in communities where C-19 is in circulation, and by vaccinating volunteers in smaller scale trials, then deliberately infecting them. The latter sounds great (brave move) but has a flaw that for ethical reasons volunteers exclude those most vulnerable to C-19, so you're not going to know for sure immune response in elderly etc.

 

It's premature to say that there's definitely some (cross) "immunity" because some people have different symptoms - the same could be said about smallpox or basically any other viral infection - some die, some don't etc.  We're all different.


sbiddle
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  #2534043 3-Aug-2020 20:42
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Fred99:

 

That's precisely what the phase 3 vaccine trials are doing - by large sample size vaccine trials in communities where C-19 is in circulation, and by vaccinating volunteers in smaller scale trials, then deliberately infecting them. The latter sounds great (brave move) but has a flaw that for ethical reasons volunteers exclude those most vulnerable to C-19, so you're not going to know for sure immune response in elderly etc.

 

It's premature to say that there's definitely some (cross) "immunity" because some people have different symptoms - the same could be said about smallpox or basically any other viral infection - some die, some don't etc.  We're all different.

 

 

Do you have a source for human challenge trials? I have certainly read nothing about these being undertaken anywhere, and Google can't link me to anything either. I had read stories in recent weeks about the potential for this (and some people pushing for this), but infecting people raises all sorts of huge ethics issues hence the fact it's vary rare. Oxford were keen to do a small scale human challenge trial by the end of the year.

 

The phase 3 trials that are occuring are largely being tested in Covid-19 hotspots where community transmission is occuring, and testing and placebo testing with people such as doctors in hospitals treating patients. This is very different from purposely infecting somebody.

 

 


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