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Scott3
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  #2541364 14-Aug-2020 21:45
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Zepanda66:

 

Handle9: Anyone who thinks this is the last lockdown under an elimination strategy is delusional. There are too many moving parts to this.

If this outbreak is eliminated there will be another one at some point. It's not possible to keep COVID out indefinitely so the country either needs to be prepared for sporadic lock downs or consider a different strategy.

 

 

 

Well the point of these lockdowns is to buy us time until a vaccine. With the first lockdown being a success we got 102 days closer to a vaccine without an outbreak than any other country. Thats a huge milestone to be proud of. We may not have to wait long for a vaccine either. Especially If the Oxford vaccine sticks to its schedule and completes phase 3 trials this month it could be ready as soon as September. So if we can get this outbreak under control which I think we can well be in a much better position to deploy the vaccine quickly without interruptions of dealing with a outbreak. 

 



Even if the vaccine is many years away, I still think the elimination strategy is the way to go.

 

Despite poor handling of the border, as you say we have gone 102 days before we found a case that leaked in.

 

Hopefully we can take some learning's from this, and take the border more seriously:

 

  • People in isolation stay in their rooms
  • Weekly testing for anybody that enters the air-side of the airport or a port (excl truckies), or comes within 5m of a recent arrival (bus drivers etc), air crew (all, including non NZ based).
  • Get rid of the isolation exemptions (Air crew, diplomats, marine crew)
  • Better management of non NZ based air crew (perhaps set up a campervan village airside at the airport, rather than allowing them to catch crew buses to hotels).

The above should reduce the frequency of virus leaks into our community. Also we would hope the at risk screening testing identifies the index case. It is likely if we found the index case fairly early, with contact tracing we could eliminate the virus in level 2. (or perhaps only 3 days of level 3 to allow time for contact tracing & testing)

The current situation largely necessitated level 3 as we have not found the index case, so there is a risk that they infected others.


Should note that any approach other elimination will likely require us to stay in level 2 until there is a vaccine. Kiss large sports events, weddings, expo's, religious gatherings good-buy. It is also possible we might have to take the country up to level 3 for a week or two each time hospital capacity starts to get stretched.

 

Any other approach for NZ seems like a gamble on herd immunity, not a smart play given there is yet to be a scientific consensus that immunity lasts for a useful length of time.


dafman
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  #2541365 14-Aug-2020 21:49
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Just back home tonight from dinner out with friends in Kapiti.

 

However, if Covid was out and about in the community, I'd have stayed home. 

 

Something to think about for those who say we need to let it loose to save the economy. 

 

 


 
 
 
 


freitasm
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  #2541369 14-Aug-2020 21:56
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Good to see the government doing something proactively here with this flight to Rarotonga.

 

 

The Cook Island GP concerned is in hospital in Auckland , 1 News reported.

 

It reported that the GP is the "go to" doctor for local Cook Islands residents, and therefore there is concern residents on the flight tomorrow may be at risk for Covid-19.

 

There is one flight a week to the Cook Islands.

 

There are reportedly around 30 Cook Island residents set to board the flight.

 

Cook Island's Ministry of Health has reportedly given the go-ahead for the flight.

 

But the New Zealand Government is considering whether to let the flight take off for Rarotonga tomorrow, 1 News reported.

 





 

 

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Scott3
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  #2541372 14-Aug-2020 22:11
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[Mod edit (MF): the story quote and commented in this posted was recanted after more facts came to light.


mattwnz
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  #2541388 15-Aug-2020 00:08
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Handle9: Anyone who thinks this is the last lockdown under an elimination strategy is delusional. There are too many moving parts to this.

If this outbreak is eliminated there will be another one at some point. It's not possible to keep COVID out indefinitely so the country either needs to be prepared for sporadic lock downs or consider a different strategy.

 

 

 

It depends on a range of factors. As far as I am aware, the only place new cases can come into NZ is via our airports or through our ports. The most likely path for the virus is through leaks in our managed isolation hotels, as occurred in Victoria. So some process has likely failed, and an investigation is needed to find out where that occurred so it can be plugged. I think they are already aware of a number of areas that need beefing up a lot. 

 

Australia are not following an elimination strategy like NZ, but are using suppression, which is what many countries are doing, now that it is tooo late to eliminate it from those countries. But they are still have to go into lockdowns to control the virus, and potentially the economic cost, and the lack of freedom for them has been significantly worse than here. They have delayed lockdowns, and it has cost them badly, with mass death occurring. They will have to rinse and repeat to control their community transmission if they don't eliminate it, and that is without leaks at their border. 

 

NZ can't really afford to live with it, because our health system wouldn't cope, and we don't have the ICU capacity for it. To live in a Covid NZ would mean that other operations and treatments on NZers would be delayed,  and there would be mass death, and older people would essentially be under house arrest for potentially years. Everyone would be living in an uneasy environment, and many businesses would struggle or fail. Compared to how we have been living for the past few months in level 1. After hearing an overseas radio show yesterday discussing NZ, I think some people overseas are secretly a little bit happy that we have gone back into lockdown, after seeing us all living a a normal covid free life.


dejadeadnz
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  #2541389 15-Aug-2020 00:12
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freitasm:

 

Please nominate someone in your family that you would be ok with dying if the lockdown wasn't implemented.

 

No?

 

 

*playing devil's advocate here*

 

I don't think that's necessarily a very good argument. If NZ was teetering of the edge of financial collapse or we genuinely couldn't afford another short/sharp lockdown, it's not beyond reason within recognised public policy frameworks to trade lives for overall greater utility. Let's be very clear about this: public policy makers and most NZers go home each night and sleep extremely soundly with the knowledge that our chosen road speeds on suburban roads and state highways clearly cause people to lose their lives and many people would be home with their loved ones tonight if we would all drive at most only at 50KPH.

 

Now there are many sound economic and ethical arguments in favour of the continuation of the elimination strategy (and I continue to believe it's the right one). But I just don't think over-emotive "How would you feel if it's your relative?" arguments are needed or particularly helpful in the context of serious public policy disputes. I've previously touched on why people who argue for approaches such as herd immunity, suppression, or "just letting COVID in" etc should be pushed to expose some of their underlying ethical assumptions - see here. There are knowledge uncertainties and people who push for balancing approaches need to account for how they have accounted for the moral implications of such uncertainty.


mattwnz
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  #2541390 15-Aug-2020 00:13
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dafman:

 

Just back home tonight from dinner out with friends in Kapiti.

 

However, if Covid was out and about in the community, I'd have stayed home. 

 

Something to think about for those who say we need to let it loose to save the economy. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes. If I was living in a Covid country like the UK, I wouldn't be going out to restaurants etc.

 

Some people I know in the UK are now going out to the odd pub, but they are sitting outside and each household bubble sits at least 2 metres from one annhter with masks on, and the pub only has a limited number of people. Can't see it being good for business long term.

 

 

 

Covid Free is the best strategy for all NZers living here, because we get onto it early and stamp it out. Luckily it is very likely to be possible to eliminate it again. 


 
 
 
 


Batman

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  #2541396 15-Aug-2020 06:17
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tdgeek
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  #2541415 15-Aug-2020 07:32
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mattwnz:

 

After hearing an overseas radio show yesterday discussing NZ, I think some people overseas are secretly a little bit happy that we have gone back into lockdown, after seeing us all living a a normal covid free life.

 

 

Humans can be a very sad and poor lot at times, fortunately, not all of them


Dingbatt
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  #2541437 15-Aug-2020 09:19
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tdgeek:

 

mattwnz:

 

After hearing an overseas radio show yesterday discussing NZ, I think some people overseas are secretly a little bit happy that we have gone back into lockdown, after seeing us all living a a normal covid free life.

 

 

Humans can be a very sad and poor lot at times, fortunately, not all of them

 

 

Yes, all those nasty foreigners!

 

Our team of 5 million would never do anything like suggest we stop kiwis from returning home or ostracize someone who happened to fly out of a region of 1.5 million people that had 14 (at that time) isolated cases. I can almost guarantee there are people that harbour a JAFA sentiment south of the Bombay Hills that are quietly chuckling.

 

The hubris that accompanied NZ’s initial squashing of the virus set us up for the very comments that are now coming in. What the international community don’t seem to realise is that we have now bet the whole farm on the elimination strategy, with periodic lockdowns, until there is a vaccine or the virus burns out internationally like SARS did.

 

But there is also a sentiment that has been expressed internationally, that NZ is not accepting the health ‘pain’ and just waiting for the gain. What we may find is we are way down the list when it comes to a vaccine. After all, if we have eliminated the virus, what’s the rush?

 

Edit: spelling





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tdgeek
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  #2541460 15-Aug-2020 10:07
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Dingbatt:

 

Yes, all those nasty foreigners!

 

Our team of 5 million would never do anything like suggest we stop kiwis from returning home or ostracize someone who happened to fly out of a region of 1.5 million people that had 14 (at that time) isolated cases. I can almost guarantee there are people that harbour a JAFA sentiment south of the Bombay Hills that are quietly chuckling.

 

The hubris that accompanied NZ’s initial squashing of the virus set us up for the very comments that are now coming in. What the international community don’t seem to realise is that we have now bet the whole farm on the elimination strategy, with periodic lockdowns, until there is a vaccine or the virus burns out internationally like SARS did.
But there is also a sentiment that has been expressed internationally, that NZ is not accepting the health ‘pain’ and just waiting for the gain. What we may find is we are way down the list when it comes to a vaccine. After all, if we have eliminated the virus, what’s the rush?

 

Edit: spelling

 

 

I dunno about the hubris. Did we really gloat how good we are? No doubt some did, but I didnt see that as a general Kiwi thing. The JAFA thing, I also dunno. Its part of Kiwi culture, I dunno how serious we take that. Id be disappointed if non Aklders are chuckling. I can see what Matt said applying to politics here though, especially election year. That's painfully evident.

 

Re the whole farm, Id say many paddocks. The elimination strategy avoids months and months and months of continual economic interruption. That harsh 5 weeks was worth it, we wont have a harsh but less harsh 18 months + to deal with.


dafman
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  #2541463 15-Aug-2020 10:14
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Dingbatt:

 

But there is also a sentiment that has been expressed internationally, that NZ is not accepting the health ‘pain’ and just waiting for the gain. What we may find is we are way down the list when it comes to a vaccine. After all, if we have eliminated the virus, what’s the rush? 

 

 

Ah, so we should deliberately set out to spread the virus, as a cunning strategy to speed up our access to a vaccine to prevent the virus? Makes sense. 


freitasm
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  #2541464 15-Aug-2020 10:17
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dejadeadnz:

 

*playing devil's advocate here*

 

I don't think that's necessarily a very good argument. If NZ was teetering of the edge of financial collapse or we genuinely couldn't afford another short/sharp lockdown, it's not beyond reason within recognised public policy frameworks to trade lives for overall greater utility. Let's be very clear about this: public policy makers and most NZers go home each night and sleep extremely soundly with the knowledge that our chosen road speeds on suburban roads and state highways clearly cause people to lose their lives and many people would be home with their loved ones tonight if we would all drive at most only at 50KPH.

 

Now there are many sound economic and ethical arguments in favour of the continuation of the elimination strategy (and I continue to believe it's the right one). But I just don't think over-emotive "How would you feel if it's your relative?" arguments are needed or particularly helpful in the context of serious public policy disputes. I've previously touched on why people who argue for approaches such as herd immunity, suppression, or "just letting COVID in" etc should be pushed to expose some of their underlying ethical assumptions - see here. There are knowledge uncertainties and people who push for balancing approaches need to account for how they have accounted for the moral implications of such uncertainty.

 

 

Valid points too, in special the last sentence - "people who push for balancing approaches need to account for how they have accounted for the moral implications of such uncertainty"

 

If the only accountability is "my business is closing" then I don't consider that enough of a reason to overcome moral implications.

 

I only listen to talkback radio on the car (Japanese import, only get one radion and should really replace it at some point). If you listen to people calling in you would think New Zealand completely failed in saving lives (before this second wave) and "the government" is out there to get them - specifically.





 

 

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Dingbatt
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  #2541466 15-Aug-2020 10:22
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dafman:

 

Dingbatt:

 

But there is also a sentiment that has been expressed internationally, that NZ is not accepting the health ‘pain’ and just waiting for the gain. What we may find is we are way down the list when it comes to a vaccine. After all, if we have eliminated the virus, what’s the rush? 

 

 

Ah, so we should deliberately set out to spread the virus, as a cunning strategy to speed up our access to a vaccine to prevent the virus? Makes sense. 

 

 

 

 

No, no, no.

 

I am commenting on how some see us internationally. We have to accept that as a consequence of our strategy. At no point did I suggest “spreading the virus to get access to a vaccine” because that is ridiculous.

 

Not everything is binary.

 

Edit: clarification





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dejadeadnz
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  #2541505 15-Aug-2020 11:49
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freitasm:

 

Valid points too, in special the last sentence - "people who push for balancing approaches need to account for how they have accounted for the moral implications of such uncertainty"

 

If the only accountability is "my business is closing" then I don't consider that enough of a reason to overcome moral implications.

 

 

The last sentence is also what galls me. I am about to offend some of the resident defenders of Small Business Heroes  but people need to recognise that there's an unprecedented pandemic here and simply doing whatever it takes to prop up any business, especially those that deliver very little in way of economic value/high paying jobs, simply isn't the way to go. From a moral POV, it's simply indefensible to keep demanding that the lowest paid, least influential (anyone who's been in an Auckland restaurant lately, be honest and observe how much of the wait staff are still people on working holiday visas), and most vulnerable workers be put in positions of danger to deliver mediocre (or worse) outputs to keep a small sets of owners and landlords fat.

 

Our economic models need to change long term and bloodbaths in the likes of our over-saturated hospitality industry are both needed and inevitable. 

 

On a related topic, Australia's health chief is on the record saying that our level 1 restrictions were too loose and we shouldn't have allowed mass gatherings. I couldn't agree more. Again, people aren't understanding how this recent cluster could have ended in disaster (and it still might yet, heavens forbid) if they had, say, gone to a rugby game and a couple of people had sneezed into a crowd of people down below them etc. There were reports that an Atletico Madrid v Liverpool soccer game earlier in the year caused a major COVID outbreak. Sorry but it's just a game -- if people want to play and keep fit, go for it. If people want to watch overpaid sports stars, they should do it on TV.

 

Now I doubt we can keep doing this for the rest of our lives but I'd rather have a relatively stable (but limited) economy for the next couple of years (I don't for one moment believe that a vaccine will be available within a year) than endlessly yo-yoing between lockdowns and "freedom".


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