2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Uber Geek

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#2409940 29-Jan-2020 22:41

tdgeek:
gzt:
tdgeek: Some schools have a policy here of no Chinese at school for 14 days,

This is 100% not the case. Please choose your words carefully at this time. School mitigation policies like this will apply to anyone outbound from all China regions, which is probably overkill anyway and likely to be refined.

Why is it overkill?

'probably'. China is a big country. Many provinces have only one confirmed case at this time. On the other hand, chances are most people have to transit a large port in a major province on the way out so it's in the sensible range, and 14 days is not too disruptive for students hopefully.

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Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2409948 29-Jan-2020 23:38

MadEngineer:

Interesting video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM "Coronavirus - Inside info and discussion"

Or the Readers Digest version (rough notes)

Lax reactive response is responsible for spread.

People reporting the disease were being arrested and reporters asked to delete images taken from the wet markets. Govt selectively using anti-rumour laws. Rumours being spread that you must abandon your pets.

China govt likes to keep control of 'viral' news and release it themselves.

Chinese have too much trust of their govt that constantly lies to them by playing down the severity of situations.

Chinese like to place blame; they're blaming the Wuhan govt and even Americans. "Don't blame the CCP". "Thousands of Americans die every year from the flu but China only has like 60 deaths per year". Foreigners often blamed every time something bad happens in China.

The amount of people infected in hospitals is a lot more that's actually being reported e.g. official data showing 15 in Shenzhen quarantined however doctors at that hospital saying there's 30.

Doctors told they're not allowed to go on holiday despite it being a holiday period. Doctors on holiday recalled.

Doctors not properly equipped e.g. basic surgical masks, no protective clothing. China is currently in their winter season.

It's a rarity for Chinese to wash their hands. Hospitals, most hotels and public bathrooms don't have soap.

Wuhan is the source of the virus however the 'threat level' wasn't raised when it was raised in other areas.

Chinese are big on alternative medicine including the consumption of random animal body parts as aphrodisiacs.

Largest public banquet record attempt attempted at 7KM from ground zero as an attempt to downplay. Propaganda about sick people being strong and still attending these events.

Face masks being purchased en masse in bulk from Amazon - all sold out.

Areas with counts of zero infections despite there being videos showing sick people collected into ambulances by people in hazmat suits from those places.

Wuhan was quarantined but not before they tell everyone all the roads are going to close meaning everyone drives out anyway. People then allowed to drive out regardless.

People are openly bragging on social media about escaping from Wuhan.

The holiday is a huge event - desperation to travel back home (due to urbanisation) drives up crime e.g. theft to pay for the travel.

Majority of Chinese go to wet markets. Culture is to eat fresh every day rather than making use of refrigeration. SARS was supposed to have ended the selling of live animals but still you get your purchased animals killed right in front of you. Any animal you can imagine is available (Chinese koala, armadillo, cats and of course dogs).

Hygiene isn't part of their culture. Spitting is seen as healthy. Compare to the Spanish flu where spitting was banned. Deaths are family business and not properly reported.

this guy is very brave and i applaud him. been following him since the start of his channel.

bfginger

1237 posts

Uber Geek

#2409951 29-Jan-2020 23:52

Dratsab: A mate of mine just sent me a video with 3 pieces of footage purportedly taken in hospitals in Wuhan. The translation on the videos makes the claim that over 90,000 people are infected and some are dying in the hospital corridors because they can't get treatment. Supposedly a transmission rate of 14.

Hopefully hoax material. As I pointed out to him, it's all completely unverified. Also neither of us understand Chinese so we don't know the accuracy of the translation. The other thing that makes me think its a hoax is that transmission rates outside of China don't stack up with the claim in the video.

Undoubtedly a lot of people will be seeing this video in a very short space of time.

I can, however, believe that things are a lot worse than we're being told. It's not hard to imagine the outbreak started a lot earlier and province administrators kept schtung hoping it could be treated and would just go away without them being blamed for it or embarrassing their leader.

A transmission rate of "up to" 14. The average rate is estimated to be between 2.5 to 5 which is worse than the flu and SARS but better than measles. Unfortunately this virus is mutating rapidly so it could become more infectious over time.

Some material may be misattributed but it is as bad as it looks. It was spreading for up to two months without restrictions with a large public food festival being held recently in Wuhan. The official figures have to be understated so if it isn't 100,000 it will be soon. Going by hospital bed numbers alone for the corridors to be filled with the sick there must be far more than a few thousand there.

A large minority of those who fell ill are requiring intensive care. Once hospitals are overwhelmed things are much worse for the sick. Initial reported lethality rates are likely optimistic as stated by some experts but mutations could reduce lethality if it becomes an international pandemic.

SARS left permanent damage to the health of a large minority who contracted it. As this is a related virus it might show the same characteristic.

I don't think it's being taken seriously enough here. Supermarket entrances and petrol pumps should have hand sanitisers. Newspaper and Youtube ads should carry calm factual advice on how to prevent the potential spread of viruses. Lessening the rates of colds and flus beforehand would be a big help for if it arrives here.

gzt

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#2409953 30-Jan-2020 00:02

Lucky for NZ it's summer here with less confusion likely with winter flu and usual seasonal increases for varieties of pneumonia

mudguard

1726 posts

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#2409982 30-Jan-2020 08:25

bfginger:

I don't think it's being taken seriously enough here. Supermarket entrances and petrol pumps should have hand sanitisers.

Just squirt a bit of 91 on ya hand!

grimwulf

121 posts

Master Geek

#2410070 30-Jan-2020 10:57

Well it seems the panic at least has spread here.

For what it's worth - rumors spreading that there's a Chinese man recently arrived from Beijing, suffering from Coronovirus symptoms, isolated at Lower Hutt hospital. Staff have been told not to report it nor speak to media about it.

Source - buddy at work, who's wife is a nurse there and has advised him to keep both himself and the kids away.

Put whatever weight on that that you like, but I would say it's somewhat inevitable that a) there will be cases here by now and b) the authorities will be loathe to report such.

tdgeek

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#2410078 30-Jan-2020 11:16

grimwulf:

Well it seems the panic at least has spread here.

For what it's worth - rumors spreading that there's a Chinese man recently arrived from Beijing, suffering from Coronovirus symptoms, isolated at Lower Hutt hospital. Staff have been told not to report it nor speak to media about it.

Source - buddy at work, who's wife is a nurse there and has advised him to keep both himself and the kids away.

Put whatever weight on that that you like, but I would say it's somewhat inevitable that a) there will be cases here by now and b) the authorities will be loathe to report such.

I'm told that we have 8 flights a day arriving, those 8 x circa 200 passengers aren't tested for being carriers then let through. Then I guess they go to hotels, gatherings, shopping. Only a matter of time, IMO Im also unsure why we say the risk is low yet WHO set the Global risk is now set to High. 1 person mixes with 20 people, who each mix ioth 20 people and so on

Fred99

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#2410085 30-Jan-2020 11:20

grimwulf:

Put whatever weight on that that you like, but I would say it's somewhat inevitable that a) there will be cases here by now and b) the authorities will be loathe to report such.

As of tomorrow (31 Jan), confirmed cases are a notifiable disease in NZ - so they're going to have to be reported.
Whether there's any public benefit from publicising "suspected" cases is debatable.

rugrat

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#2410096 30-Jan-2020 11:49

Ridiculous:

Air New Zealand is still flying to China, where other airlines have stopped flights.

Apparently there’s some amazing Virus filtering air conditioning on Air New Zealand.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12304495

“Aircraft have very sophisticated cabin air conditioning systems that filter out organisms such as viruses from the air that is recirculated through the cabin," he said.”

Passengers who were feeling unwell before flying should contact their doctor for advice, he said.

"If a customer is unwell in flight our cabin crew are very well trained to deal with a range of medical conditions and they have medical equipment on board to be able to assist."

Amazing, they have medical equipment on board as well. Beggars Disbelief. They be reeling in the bucks when other main Airlines have suspended flights.

Edit: Sounds like to late anyway, if already here, hope they’re happy with extra bucks made.

pinkydot

247 posts

Master Geek

#2410114 30-Jan-2020 12:05

Know someone that came back from China 2 days ago, He told me that when you board the flight, they have thermal scan before depart. He said pretty much everyone on the plane wearing masks on the whole flight

But when arrived in Auckland, he surprised that he didn't see any thermal scan in the airport when you walk out from the plane.

His boss even gave him few days off from work just to make sure he didn't get infected on the plane and he quarantine himself at home.

frankv

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#2410115 30-Jan-2020 12:05

rugrat:

Amazing, they have medical equipment on board as well.

An oxygen bottle, a packet of paracetamol, and a pamphlet on CPR.

Fred99

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Uber Geek

#2410121 30-Jan-2020 12:24

frankv:

rugrat:

Amazing, they have medical equipment on board as well.

An oxygen bottle, a packet of paracetamol, and a pamphlet on CPR.

And a PA system - "is there a doctor on board?" sometimes followed by "is there a pilot on board?".

frankv

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#2410128 30-Jan-2020 12:31

tdgeek:

I'm told that we have 8 flights a day arriving, those 8 x circa 200 passengers aren't tested for being carriers then let through. Then I guess they go to hotels, gatherings, shopping. Only a matter of time, IMO Im also unsure why we say the risk is low yet WHO set the Global risk is now set to High. 1 person mixes with 20 people, who each mix ioth 20 people and so on

A transmission rate of 2.5 to 5, so each infected person goes on to infect 2.5 to 5 people, so not 20.

Let's say that one infectious case arrives. They infect 5 people, which takes 2 weeks to incubate. They infect 5 more each, but by now case 1 is either dead, or has killed the infection. So you now have 30 people infected. Two weeks later, 125 new people are infected, giving a total of 150 (another 5 being cleared). Another 2 weeks, 750 new people infected, total infected = 875.

So, assuming that you identify that first case, you have a couple of months before you get 1,000 cases. 3% mortality rate, so 30 deaths in that time... the same order of magnitude as car crashes or drowning, which we accept. From a public health point of view, I'd say it's not a big risk at the moment. There's time to get some infrastructure and defences in place. But, if you do get to 1,000 cases, it will grow exponentially.

From a WHO, they're already up to 90,000 cases, so it *is* a big issue. Hence the serious measures being taken in Wuhan.

Looking at your 8x200 passengers per day... what's the chance that one of your 1600 passengers is infected? If there were NO restriction on Chinese travel, and you selected Chinese people at random, 100,000/1Billion = 1 in 10,000. Once in 6 days, you can expect 1 infected passenger. But China is mitigating that risk significantly by quarantining Wuhan. So it's probably more like once in a month.

rugrat

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#2410136 30-Jan-2020 12:50

frankv:

So, assuming that you identify that first case, you have a couple of months before you get 1,000 cases. 3% mortality rate, so 30 deaths in that time... the same order of magnitude as car crashes or drowning, which we accept.

Yep, let’s not worry until it gets to 1000 then, better to try and manage it when to late.

With drowning and car crash’s can individually lower risk, know how to swim check, make sure life guard present at pool or area check.

Driving around town will be lower risk then a motorway, with a Virus it’s like everybody is on motorway at once, and one crash increases chances of another one.

With drownings, car crash’s choose to be in water, car, a virus can get you while you sleep.

I’ve got some Flem in throat at moment, can only wonder even though probably unlikely, car crash’s are quick.

tdgeek

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#2410140 30-Jan-2020 12:52

frankv:

tdgeek:

I'm told that we have 8 flights a day arriving, those 8 x circa 200 passengers aren't tested for being carriers then let through. Then I guess they go to hotels, gatherings, shopping. Only a matter of time, IMO Im also unsure why we say the risk is low yet WHO set the Global risk is now set to High. 1 person mixes with 20 people, who each mix ioth 20 people and so on

A transmission rate of 2.5 to 5, so each infected person goes on to infect 2.5 to 5 people, so not 20.

Let's say that one infectious case arrives. They infect 5 people, which takes 2 weeks to incubate. They infect 5 more each, but by now case 1 is either dead, or has killed the infection. So you now have 30 people infected. Two weeks later, 125 new people are infected, giving a total of 150 (another 5 being cleared). Another 2 weeks, 750 new people infected, total infected = 875.

So, assuming that you identify that first case, you have a couple of months before you get 1,000 cases. 3% mortality rate, so 30 deaths in that time... the same order of magnitude as car crashes or drowning, which we accept. From a public health point of view, I'd say it's not a big risk at the moment. There's time to get some infrastructure and defences in place. But, if you do get to 1,000 cases, it will grow exponentially.

From a WHO, they're already up to 90,000 cases, so it *is* a big issue. Hence the serious measures being taken in Wuhan.

Looking at your 8x200 passengers per day... what's the chance that one of your 1600 passengers is infected? If there were NO restriction on Chinese travel, and you selected Chinese people at random, 100,000/1Billion = 1 in 10,000. Once in 6 days, you can expect 1 infected passenger. But China is mitigating that risk significantly by quarantining Wuhan. So it's probably more like once in a month.

Do we know the real numbers? of infected and of deaths? The official numbers are at best, the lowest number, but the real numbers are more. Or much more or much much more.

They say the virus came out in Dec, Wuhan was quarantined after that, people fled as well. It has travelled internationally

A key issue is the numbers, they may be intentionally/dubiosly kept low, or unknowingly low. Wuhan was quarantined too late, but its still helpful. NZ is open for business.

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