2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2549680 25-Aug-2020 22:03

Batman:

mattwnz:

Is anyone else wondering how we are still getting such a relatively high number of new cases considering we are coming to the end of the 14 day incubation cycle while in lockdown? I could understand some coming from households, as they would now be into at least the second transmission cycle, but 4 from churches sounds high. Certainly the extension of the lockdown was needed, as I don't think the public would be happy about us going out of lockdown tomorrow based on the numbers. Also the unlinked case in ICU concerns the DG of the MOH, which isn't a good sign, as the case just popped up with no link.

Also is there an age breakdown of who is/has been in hospital, and who is also in critical condition, from their latest outbreak? These numbers sound quite high too, this early on, considering no rest homes appear to have been affected this time. It could suggest that there are more cases in the community yet to be identified.

I'm not wondering and not surprised, in fact I expected it. The virus was given a massive head start for months and months. We are now playing catch me if you can.

I don't think so.

The reason the one cluster has been large is that this time it's mainly in the Pasifica community, typically with large and often multi-generational homes, and tightly connected communities. "Head start" implies it was simmering away / getting ahead unnoticed. There's no evidence it was.

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mattwnz

19378 posts

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#2549694 25-Aug-2020 23:23

Fred99:

I don't think so.

The reason the one cluster has been large is that this time it's mainly in the Pasifica community, typically with large and often multi-generational homes, and tightly connected communities. "Head start" implies it was simmering away / getting ahead unnoticed. There's no evidence it was.

I am just really hoping that everyone with cold symptoms are getting tested. Apparently there are thousands of overstayers in Auckland that could be in some communities. Are they going to want to risk getting deported if they go for a test? I think the government needs some form of anonymity with the test, so there is no risk for these overstayers when they get a test. We only need a few cause the virus to go underground and re-emerge

mattwnz

19378 posts

Uber Geek

#2549695 25-Aug-2020 23:30

Oblivian:

As for continual ~6 case average. Is it not the same incubation lag that we have talked about so many pages.

Feel fine 1 day, sick 2 days later. Go get tested, oh look I got it last week from a bloke/family we saw just on the first few days of lvl3 who is now in isolation. Meanwhile you ignore the 'stay at home and avoid people' rule while meeting people in the community and lifting your mask off all day. Or still seeing people outside your bubble against lvl3 recommendation. oh look. 4 more infected.

3 days later, they're showing so go get tested too.

Rinse, repeat.

As they say, this tail ain't going to stop in a hurry unless locals treat it like lvl4 and take it seriously to cut it off at the pass.

Sigh...Yes I think you are right. Level 4 basically did a lot of the hard work for us, by actually keeping people distanced in their single household bubbles, which starved the virus.

NZers in level 3, and then 2, it actually requires people do a lot of that hard work. eg Wear masks, wash hands etc, physically distance, and even that isn't full proof at stopping transmission. Maybe we will get lucky. But if we are still getting cases at the end of the week from churches for example, then some serious questions need to be asked as to why, as we will be more than 1 full incubation cycle into lockdown.

DS248

1661 posts

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#2549696 25-Aug-2020 23:38

Oh, so now MoH providing even less useful info on covid cases :(

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details#download

"Note 2: This data previously included flight information for cases linked to overseas travel. For privacy reasons, we are no longer publishing this information."

DS248

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#2549698 25-Aug-2020 23:43

Good news

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/wa-loses-bid-for-fresh-trial-in-clive-palmer-hard-border-battle/12592524

"The Western Australian Government is claiming a "comprehensive victory" in a key legal battle with mining billionaire Clive Palmer, after the Federal Court ruled the state's border closure was more effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19 than any other measure."

mattwnz

19378 posts

Uber Geek

#2549700 25-Aug-2020 23:56

DS248:

Oh, so now MoH providing even less useful info on covid cases :(

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details#download

"Note 2: This data previously included flight information for cases linked to overseas travel. For privacy reasons, we are no longer publishing this information."

Annoying. I would have thought a table showing when the numbers of infections coming from each country, would be at least a workaround.

Interesting that only 5 cases in this new cluster are over 70+, yet the hospitalizations and numbers who have needed ICU seem relatively high.

Handle9

9637 posts

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#2549708 26-Aug-2020 05:49

It'll be interesting to see how long New Zealand will be able to sustain lock downs without becoming much more draconian with enforcement.

It's fairly likely that as Covid fatigue sets in compliance will get worse and worse. That's certainly been the experience everywhere else in the world.

The next lockdown (there will be a next one, another outbreak is inevitable) will likely have yet worse compliance and the government will between a rock and a hard place. They will either need to get really serious with enforcement or give up on eradication.

tdgeek

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#2549709 26-Aug-2020 06:17

Batman:

I'm not wondering and not surprised, in fact I expected it. The virus was given a massive head start for months and months. We are now playing catch me if you can.

And if people are tired of lockdowns, and many dont comply, its easy to spread. Governments cannot stop it, they just give rules, its up to the people to stop it. 10,000 tests a day isn't helpful when those that feel sick "cant be bothered" "I heard its painful"

floydbloke

3170 posts

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#2549722 26-Aug-2020 08:24

mattwnz:

...

Interesting that only 5 cases in this new cluster are over 70+, yet the hospitalizations and numbers who have needed ICU seem relatively high.

But perhaps not surprising though, given the demographic that largely makes up this current cluster is generally over-represented in healthcare statistics.

After I was born, I didn't talk to my parents for two years.

GV27

5422 posts

Uber Geek

#2549729 26-Aug-2020 08:42

mattwnz:

NZers in level 3, and then 2, it actually requires people do a lot of that hard work. eg Wear masks, wash hands etc, physically distance, and even that isn't full proof at stopping transmission. Maybe we will get lucky. But if we are still getting cases at the end of the week from churches for example, then some serious questions need to be asked as to why, as we will be more than 1 full incubation cycle into lockdown.

We will be though - they're only now expanding the net for testing to include asymptomatic people - previously closely contacts were advised to get tested if they developed symptoms or at risk of complications etc.

This is a really good move as it will give some certainty around there being other clusters or people related to the current one not yet identified as contacts or that can't be linked through a chain of transmission to existing cases, but it's weird we're only doing it now as we are already heading back to L2 next week. Hell, if this weekend is sunny then most people will be back at beaches and parks and acting like we're there already.

The more I think about it, the more it looks like the firm call to move to L2 was made as a result of political pressure to signal a return to normality, before the information that would confirm we are actually in a position to do so was available. Hence the review sometime before Sunday evening - but that's baseless speculation more suited to the politics subforum.

I'm inclined to agree with TD here; I'm expecting an announcement Sunday saying "Actually, sorry, this hasn't gone the way we expected it to" and to still be at L3 for the foreseeable.

1101

3086 posts

Uber Geek

#2549731 26-Aug-2020 08:54

tdgeek:

10,000 tests a day isn't helpful when those that feel sick "cant be bothered" "I heard its painful"

when those who are genuinely sick are expected to wait 4-8 hours in a que for a test , sitting in a car (if lucky enough to actually have a car to sit in) . Then might have to come back the next day & re-cue
Then have to wait sometimes 5 days for the result .
Lets not assume people just cant be bothered .
The real issue is too many are wanting tests when theres no reason for them to do so . Thats overloaded the system .

"Despite phoning Healthline and being told that she met all the criteria for a test, she had been unable to be booked in anywhere one week later."
"One person texted RNZ to say they had been waiting 10-and-a-half hours ......"

tdgeek

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#2549732 26-Aug-2020 08:58

1101:

when those who are genuinely sick are expected to wait 4-8 hours in a que for a test , sitting in a car (if lucky enough to actually have a car to sit in) . Then might have to come back the next day & re-cue
Then have to wait sometimes 5 days for the result .
Lets not assume people just cant be bothered .
The real issue is too many are wanting tests when theres no reason for them to do so . Thats overloaded the system .

"Despite phoning Healthline and being told that she met all the criteria for a test, she had been unable to be booked in anywhere one week later."
"One person texted RNZ to say they had been waiting 10-and-a-half hours ......"

People have been told the rules, dont get a test if you feel fine.

concordnz

420 posts

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#2549735 26-Aug-2020 09:02

An update on current Covid Test result time frames.

I've had another dose of the flu - so went to testing Centre (didn't need a referral or anything - told them I had flu like symptoms, but no known contact with any high risk people. - they were happy to test me, no problem)

Did the test during my lunch break yesterday,
Got confirmation this morning it's a negative test.(only 18hrs later)

So results are coming through fast again.

For anyone that claims they "can't get tested" - seems highly questionable, to me. - I've had 3 Covid tests now (each time I've caught a flu/cold) - & had apsolutely no trouble getting tested.

I don't bother ringing health line or GP - simply make an appointment at a Testing Center or go to a walk in/drive in Testing Centre.

Oblivian

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#2549736 26-Aug-2020 09:05

And if we needed more reinforcement

The sense of community New Zealand felt during the first lockdown in March appears to have somewhat dissolved amid growing frustration and despair, suggests the new research by business consultancy Rutherford.

The number of people encouraging others to comply with lockdown rules, by sharing messages such as #stayhomesavelives, has dived by more than 50 per cent, the research shows.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12359388

It's not a trend we should be following.

msukiwi

2171 posts

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#2549737 26-Aug-2020 09:05

tdgeek:People have been told the rules, dont get a test if you feel fine.

People have also been told - Stay home under Covid-19 Level 4 /3 etc! (But don't!)

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