2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2554434 31-Aug-2020 22:03

wellygary:

Scott3:

[edit] - number quoted is "people" not "rooms" - I don't know how many rooms 9000 people is.

I think I heard Megan Woods say they worked on an average of 1.4 ppl per room, so 9K people is ~6400 rooms...

made an error above, should have been 7k people. @1.4 per room, its 5000 rooms.

An average of 156 rooms per facility, which seems plausable, perhaps a touch on the low side for the types of facilities use. For example Auckland Ridges has 267 rooms, M Social Auckland has 190, Waipuna Hotel has 148 and Ibis Rotorua has 145.

[edit] Much better data at link posted by another user:

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/economic-development/covid-19-data-resources/managed-isolation-and-quarantine-data/

Projected arrivals in the next 7 days is 2964, and for the subsequent 7 days is 2401, but Actual arrivals were 32% lower than projected today.

Seems we are allowing relatively higher per capita arrivals than Aussie, but still relatively low numbers.

Ge0rge

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#2554484 31-Aug-2020 22:06

Remember you need rooms for staff etc to stay in as well, and they generally won't be sharing.

Scott3

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#2554487 31-Aug-2020 22:15

Ge0rge: Remember you need rooms for staff etc to stay in as well, and they generally won't be sharing.

Has there been any indication the staff are living onsite? - I assume they work their shift and go home, hence why the maintenance worker getting sick was such a big deal. Perhaps the military enlisted need to be accommodated if they are based elsewhere in the country? No idea if this is done within the isolation faculties themselves.

Ge0rge

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#2554488 31-Aug-2020 22:20

Scott3:
Ge0rge: Remember you need rooms for staff etc to stay in as well, and they generally won't be sharing.

Has there been any indication the staff are living onsite? - I assume they work their shift and go home, hence why the maintenance worker getting sick was such a big deal. Perhaps the military enlisted need to be accommodated if they are based elsewhere in the country? No idea if this is done within the isolation faculties themselves.

Sorry yes, it was the military that I was meaning. They are staying on site, some for up to six weeks at a time. Christmas isn't looking too good for them right now...

DS248

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#2554556 31-Aug-2020 23:35

Victoria's case numbers below 100 for the second time in three days

Road map out of lockdown to be announced on Sunday but some details given here

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-31/how-victoria-plans-to-ease-stage-4-coronavirus-restrictions/12612386

- Traffic light system to be introduced, with stage 3 and stage 2 lockdowns "substantially different" compared to last time.

- Stricter health regulations for workplaces likely including requirements for face coverings at all times, work from home where possible, keeping staff at home if unwell, limiting the density of people, workplace 'bubbles' to be encouraged

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#2554557 31-Aug-2020 23:51

By comparison our L2 and L2.5 seem largely to be clones of the original L2.

On Sunday (still in L3 - and again to day in L2.5), I was surprised to see about half the staff working in one local cafe not wearing face coverings (Hibiscus Coast, AKL). However, there seems to be no requirement for food prep and sales staff to wear face coverings. Similarly for hairdressers?

Oblivian

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#2554605 1-Sep-2020 08:55

By the by, There was an in your face news special the other night that is I suspect what has spurred that here.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/uphill-battle-get-overstayers-tested-covid-19-several-not-trusting-govt-s-assurances-v1

Earlier in the year there was calls for residency to cover any issues arising from an outbreak as a result. Admitting there may be a weak link

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/pasifika-leaders-calling-govt-grant-residency-overstayers-v1

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#2554673 1-Sep-2020 09:24

I have removed a racist comment from this discussion - and the replies (happy they were all against it).

Fred99

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#2554675 1-Sep-2020 09:30

Preprint article on : Seeding of outbreaks of COVID-19 by contaminated fresh and frozen food

Edit/TLDR:

The virus remains viable on food (salmon, chicken, pork) after 21 days @ 4, -20, and -80 C.
Cell culture was used to ascertain viability
It's an "unlikely" mode of transmission, but possible.

It's a pre-print, but the data looks good.

tieke

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#2554685 1-Sep-2020 09:51

Fred99:

Preprint article on : Seeding of outbreaks of COVID-19 by contaminated fresh and frozen food

"Our laboratory work has shown that SARS-CoV-2 can survive the time and temperatures associated with transportation and storage conditions associated with international food trade. When adding SARS-CoV-2 to chicken, salmon and pork pieces there was no decline in infectious virus after 21 days at 4°C (standard refrigeration) and –20°C (standard freezing).

Contamination of food is possible, and virus survival during transport and storage is likely. Food transportation and storage occurs in a controlled setting akin to a laboratory. Temperature and relative humidity is consistent and maintained and adverse conditions such as drying out is not permitted for the integrity of the food. In quantifying the viral titre we can reasonably assess a rate of decline in infectivity, which did not occur in any of the conditions we assessed.

We believe it is possible that contaminated imported food can transfer virus to workers as well as the environment. An infected food handler has the potential to become an index case of a new outbreak. The international food market is massive and even a very unlikely event could be expected to occur from time to time."

So the coolstore might well have been the point of origin for New Zealand. Can't see how we can easily avoid this though - the article mentions more handwashing amongst both sending and receiving points etc.

GV27

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#2554694 1-Sep-2020 10:05

tieke:

So the coolstore might well have been the point of origin for New Zealand. Can't see how we can easily avoid this though - the article mentions more handwashing amongst both sending and receiving points etc.

Interesting they write off the occult (much less interesting than I was expecting when I first read it) spread from a false negative as a cause of an outbreak to be 1 in 1,000 at best....

Alternatively, occult transmission chains can be seeded through travelers but this mechanism would require a false negative swab in an asymptomatic individual or failure to ensure quarantine. For occult transmission to lead to recrudescence of an outbreak months since the last detected case would require an ascertainment rate that for most settings is implausibly small, as demonstrated through simulations (supplementary material). Even for a reproduction number of 1, a transmission chain that avoided stochastic extinction, and only one in twenty infections being detected, the chance of reaching 20 generations without detection is at most one in a thousand.

But the whole paper turns on this:

An infected food handler has the potential to become an index case of a new outbreak. The international food market is massive and even a very unlikely event could be expected to occur from time to time.

I wonder what the equivalent odds are for the foodstore being the origin point.

wellygary

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#2554710 1-Sep-2020 10:49

tieke:

Fred99:

Preprint article on : Seeding of outbreaks of COVID-19 by contaminated fresh and frozen food

So the coolstore might well have been the point of origin for New Zealand. Can't see how we can easily avoid this though - the article mentions more handwashing amongst both sending and receiving points etc.

But the workers in the cool store here weren't actually touching the food, they were dealing with boxes, crates and packaging...

The key issue is are the same assumptions applicable to what the food is packed in

Fred99

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#2554734 1-Sep-2020 11:36

wellygary:

But the workers in the cool store here weren't actually touching the food, they were dealing with boxes, crates and packaging...

The key issue is are the same assumptions applicable to what the food is packed in

Not covered in that paper, but my guess is "probably". AIUI, the capsid protecting the virus (ie the proteins etc) from oxidation / decay is comprised of phospholipids, at warmer temperatures they're essentially an oily liquid forming a hydrophobic protective membrane (the molecules arranged with hydrophobic "tails" pointing out). At low temperature the phospholipids thicken/solidify and far less likely to be disrupted by being sucked in to a porous surface etc, and as chemical reactions that would cause ie spike proteins etc to oxidise thus inactivating the virus, this will happen faster at higher temperatures / slower at low temps.
(These comments "my opinion" - I'm not a virologist).

Reanalyse

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#2554735 1-Sep-2020 11:37

I wish we did not have idiots who are proud of their stupidity, and religiosity

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12361172

Oblivian

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#2554738 1-Sep-2020 11:43

After clicks again

Controversy doesn't need airtime. Same with letting Tamaki rock up to news crews at testing stations to ensure a voice.

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