2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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2353 posts

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#2555803 2-Sep-2020 16:59

I was really impressed with the response early on by the first Pacific Island Church.
Beautiful looking Church by the way.
While I suppose the media did invite themselves in, the Pastor was happy to engauge and giving a good message to his parish.
Later a busy pop up test center in the carpark, and handing out essential mask and care information, looking after parish welfare.
I'd hoped it would have been an example to all.

This other group, not much in the media, they don't seem to engauge at all.
It might be jumping to conclusions to assume anything about them from the 'Evangelical' in their name.

These churches are not all the same.

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wellygary

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#2555804 2-Sep-2020 16:59

FineWine:

Please correct me if I am wrong here.

Don't this group of church goers also belong to the same ethnicity and that back in their own island country they had a huge measles outbreak where the local 'Wise Women' or shaman were more believed than health authorities and that they tried and/or put more belief into home preventatives and remedies ??

My point here is the authorities (MoH) have an uphill battle against cultural and religious beliefs and this also applies to their church ministers (Catholic/Anglican/Mormon/etc) who though they have a lot of influence also struggle and in some incidences do not want to rock the boat.

And of course we have the 'over-stayers', of any culture or group, who are being hidden.

Faith and culture are very powerful influences.

Many Antivaxxers/COVID conspiracy theory believers are very white...

Yes, Faith and culture are powerful influences, but they are not limited to any particular ethnicities or nationality......

wellygary

8203 posts

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#2555805 2-Sep-2020 17:04

ockel:

So on the basis that NZ did a better job of containing than Australia then we'd expect to see a smaller GDP fall than Australia?

If the economies were similar in composition yes, but they are not.

International Tourism is a big positive contributor to NZ, however Australians actually spend more offshore than international tourists do in OZ, so shutting the borders is bottling cash up in OZ. (The household savings rate jumped from 6% to nearly 20% in the June quarter in Australia.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0?opendocument&ref=HPKI

ockel

2031 posts

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#2555809 2-Sep-2020 17:08

wellygary:

ockel:

So on the basis that NZ did a better job of containing than Australia then we'd expect to see a smaller GDP fall than Australia?

If the economies were similar in composition yes, but they are not.

International Tourism is a big positive contributor to NZ, however Australians actually spend more offshore than international tourists do in OZ, so shutting the borders is bottling cash up in OZ. (The household savings rate jumped from 6% to nearly 20% in the June quarter in Australia.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0?opendocument&ref=HPKI

Exactly. Another spurious call from an economist looking for a soundbite rather than adding value with some analysis.

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Fred99

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#2555835 2-Sep-2020 17:53

wellygary:

If the economies were similar in composition yes, but they are not.

International Tourism is a big positive contributor to NZ, however Australians actually spend more offshore than international tourists do in OZ, so shutting the borders is bottling cash up in OZ. (The household savings rate jumped from 6% to nearly 20% in the June quarter in Australia.

It is - but the net "deficit" isn't very large as a % of GDP (NZers spend a lot overseas as well - or used to I should say). Household savings rates would have been boosted by generous stimulus packages and reduced spending (apart from "welfare" for those hit by Covid affected businesses, there was a decline in demand, handing money out to people attempts to counter that potentially deflationary trend).

The NZ economy seems to be holding up reasonably well too. The comment I highlighted that "The greater the success against the virus, the greater the success in protecting economies against the pandemic." might be unpopular with business owners who've been hit by travel bans, but the by country comparisons are valid and stark. If we'd "opened up" then the economy would have been slammed harder, and a lot of people would be dead - and that for the benefit of only a very few.

ockel

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#2555839 2-Sep-2020 18:00

Fred99:

wellygary:

If the economies were similar in composition yes, but they are not.

International Tourism is a big positive contributor to NZ, however Australians actually spend more offshore than international tourists do in OZ, so shutting the borders is bottling cash up in OZ. (The household savings rate jumped from 6% to nearly 20% in the June quarter in Australia.

It is - but the net "deficit" isn't very large as a % of GDP (NZers spend a lot overseas as well - or used to I should say). Household savings rates would have been boosted by generous stimulus packages and reduced spending (apart from "welfare" for those hit by Covid affected businesses, there was a decline in demand, handing money out to people attempts to counter that potentially deflationary trend).

The NZ economy seems to be holding up reasonably well too. The comment I highlighted that "The greater the success against the virus, the greater the success in protecting economies against the pandemic." might be unpopular with business owners who've been hit by travel bans, but the by country comparisons are valid and stark. If we'd "opened up" then the economy would have been slammed harder, and a lot of people would be dead - and that for the benefit of only a very few.

Lets add the Pacific Island nations which had tremendous success against the virus and have been decimated from a GDP perspective.

Composition is much more important than the throwaway BS line that you've highlighted. It was wrong in Q1. And if the numbers from GDPLive or TradingEconomics are to be believed then it'll be wrong in Q2.

Personally I'm hoping that the ANZ Composite Confidence is a better predictor. [GDPLive as a machine learning tool has shown that it still has a lot of learning to do]

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Fred99

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#2555849 2-Sep-2020 18:37

ockel:

Lets add the Pacific Island nations which had tremendous success against the virus and have been decimated from a GDP perspective.

No - let's not - as unless you're going to find comparable small island nations that haven't been able to prevent C-19 CT and are also highly dependent on tourism (ie in these countries tourism accounts for well over 50% of GDP, and there's no significant offset from reduction in outbound tourism) then you're cherry-picking in order to attempt to argue against something very obvious, and it's utterly pointless comparing them with NZ.

"The greater the success against the virus, the greater the success in protecting economies against the pandemic."

If you think that's a throwaway line, I think you're in Lala land.

Maybe look at the Bahamas - which has been decimated from a GDP perspective, and now people are also starting to die from the virus.

Don't use those countries as an example from which to compare NZ. It's dishonest. Tourism is somewhat important to NZ economy, but not even close to how important it is for small island nations totally dependent on tourism.

clinty

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#2555964 2-Sep-2020 20:49

A good article from Vox on Rapid Antigen tests and how they may help with large outbreaks - such as the US

Rapid $1 Covid-19 tests exist. Why can’t we get them?

Also covers what Antigen and PCR tests are and what they are good for. Bit of a heavy read, but informative

A test to find infectiousness, not infection

To understand the stalemate around antigen tests, it’s helpful to first understand what they are, how they differ from classic PCR tests, and the trajectory of coronavirus infections.

First: An antigen test looks for a particular protein from a live virus. (Not to be confused with an antibody test, which finds immune cells your body has made after mounting a defense against the virus.) These tests need a lot of viral material to generate a positive result.

Second: A PCR test looks for the virus’s genetic material — its RNA — making copies of itself until it reaches a detectable level. As a result, it has a fairly low (although not perfect) false-negative rate, or the proportion of time it would tell someone who has the virus that they don’t.

Finally: One of this new coronavirus’s superpowers is its ability to spread from people before they start to experience symptoms. In fact, people tend to carry the most live virus the day or so before they begin feeling sick, and the amount tends to quickly trail off in the several days after symptom onset.

So proponents of at-home antigen testing say that PCR tests, while useful in determining whether an individual is infected with Covid-19, are actually a poor tool in finding people who are most likely to spread the virus. That’s because PCR tests are so sensitive, they are excellent at picking up traces of the virus even after someone has beat it back and is no longer infectious.

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#2555999 2-Sep-2020 21:46

wellygary:

In this case Hipkins is plain wrong, (according to the published rules) - whether it should be 10 is another matter...

The limit of10 only apply to social gatherings....
Conferences (even in Auckland) are not social gatherings

https://covid19.govt.nz/everyday-life/gatherings-and-events/

Gatherings and events at Alert Level 2 for the Auckland region
Public and event venues

Visits to public and event venues are not social gatherings. This means public and event venues can have up to 100 customers within any defined space.

Public and event venues include:

restaurants and cafes
swimming pools and gyms
libraries, and museums
cinemas, theatres, stadiums, concert venues
conference venues
casinos.
You should keep 1 metre physical distance from people you don’t know.

didn't they change the rules for Level 2.5? PM said no gathering of more than 10 in social groups. those were her exact words IIRC

I don't keep completely up to date as everything that's going on is 1 confusing and 2 encouraging any virus to spread throughout the country so i'm just keeping very vigilant but knowing that if it's out there it's out there and we're sitting ducks

1101

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#2556179 3-Sep-2020 10:28

Fred99:

Don't use those countries as an example from which to compare NZ. It's dishonest. Tourism is somewhat important to NZ economy, but not even close to how important it is for small island nations totally dependent on tourism.

I would add, lets stop comparing NZ to Sweden or Norway (in regards to lockdown or not etc)
NZ is not Sweden , NZ is not Norway, NZ is not USA or Aus.
Different race mix , different population densities , different culture , different attitudes , different health systems .

What we can do is look at other countries for worst case examples (eg hospitals pushed past the point of breaking , dead bodies being stacked up in containers )

And NZ economy is only in ~good~ shape due to over the top govt borrowing & spending.
NZ needs to pay that money back, the ONLY way that can happen is with massive tax increases , that will hurt the economy .

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#2556180 3-Sep-2020 10:30

I don't believe a conference would be considered a "social gathering".
By its nature a conference - has registration/payment leading to a former of contract tracing/identification.

A socal gathering (generally) has none of these - making the individuals harder to contact & track.

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#2556181 3-Sep-2020 10:32

concordnz: I don't believe a conference would be considered a "social gathering".
By its nature a conference - has registration/payment leading to a former of contract tracing/identification.

A socal gathering (generally) has none of these - making the individuals harder to contact & track.

And it still has very close contact, people sitting together in closed spaces for long periods, shared utensils during coffee breaks. No, thanks.

The idea is not to be easy to trace but to avoid spread.

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concordnz

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#2556191 3-Sep-2020 10:50

freitasm:
concordnz: I don't believe a conference would be considered a "social gathering".
By its nature a conference - has registration/payment leading to a former of contract tracing/identification.

A socal gathering (generally) has none of these - making the individuals harder to contact & track.

And it still has very close contact, people sitting together in closed spaces for long periods, shared utensils during coffee breaks. No, thanks.

The idea is not to be easy to trace but to avoid spread.

Totally agree,

(I also agree in my opinion the organiser should cann it too - the current environment would still appear high risk)

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#2556206 3-Sep-2020 11:07

freitasm:

And it still has very close contact, people sitting together in closed spaces for long periods, shared utensils during coffee breaks. No, thanks.

The idea is not to be easy to trace but to avoid spread.

The push for conferences is another example of Boardroom and CE lobbying that is putting our campaign against Covid-19 at risk. I see these back patting booze fests as a very very low priority as they achieve nothing. If they really have. burning desire to have a group hug use zoom and do it virtually for the wellbeing of Aotearoa.

alexx

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#2556463 3-Sep-2020 16:03

wellygary:

FineWine:

Please correct me if I am wrong here.

Don't this group of church goers also belong to the same ethnicity and that back in their own island country they had a huge measles outbreak where the local 'Wise Women' or shaman were more believed than health authorities and that they tried and/or put more belief into home preventatives and remedies ??

My point here is the authorities (MoH) have an uphill battle against cultural and religious beliefs and this also applies to their church ministers (Catholic/Anglican/Mormon/etc) who though they have a lot of influence also struggle and in some incidences do not want to rock the boat.

And of course we have the 'over-stayers', of any culture or group, who are being hidden.

Faith and culture are very powerful influences.

Many Antivaxxers/COVID conspiracy theory believers are very white...

Yes, Faith and culture are powerful influences, but they are not limited to any particular ethnicities or nationality......

In the case of Samoa they had a little help from prominent anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr and the US embassy who appeared to facilitate his visit to speak alongside local anti-vaccine advocates.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/measles-outbreak-spurred-by-anti-vaxxers-shuts-down-samoan-government/

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