2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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8259 posts

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#2556555 3-Sep-2020 16:15

alexx:

In the case of Samoa they had a little help from prominent anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr and the US embassy who appeared to facilitate his visit to speak alongside local anti-vaccine advocates.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/measles-outbreak-spurred-by-anti-vaxxers-shuts-down-samoan-government/

Samoa is a particularly sad case, that can be tracked back to the death of 2 infants in 2018 after they were given immunisation that were incorrectly diluted with anaesthetic...

The suspension of the immunisation programme and the panic aroused in the community saw immunisation rates plummet (until then Samoa's rates had been pretty good) , when the NZ outbreak made its way to Samoa it found a very large cohort of very young children that had no resistance. it was tragic....

SepticSceptic

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#2556583 3-Sep-2020 17:03

concordnz: I don't believe a conference would be considered a "social gathering".
By its nature a conference - has registration/payment leading to a former of contract tracing/identification.

A socal gathering (generally) has none of these - making the individuals harder to contact & track.

If, Grud help us, there is an outbreak associated with this conference, who will be held responsible? Would it be incumbent on the organiser to pay hospitalisation and quarantine?
Fined under a H&S issue?
Will those promoting conferences finally accede that mass gathering like this are no longer justified the current environment?

rugrat

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#2556675 4-Sep-2020 03:12

SepticSceptic:
concordnz: I don't believe a conference would be considered a "social gathering".
By its nature a conference - has registration/payment leading to a former of contract tracing/identification.

A socal gathering (generally) has none of these - making the individuals harder to contact & track.

If, Grud help us, there is an outbreak associated with this conference, who will be held responsible? Would it be incumbent on the organiser to pay hospitalisation and quarantine?
Fined under a H&S issue?
Will those promoting conferences finally accede that mass gathering like this are no longer justified the current environment?

it’s up to the government what is allowed and not allowed. If any thing goes wrong from this conference no one will be held responsible.

The organisers are doing what is allowed within the rules. If government is uncomfortable with it, then why did they make the rules allowing it?

kingdragonfly

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#2556692 4-Sep-2020 07:21

Politico: Experts knew a pandemic was coming. Here’s what they’re worried about next.
...
3. Biosecurity: Terrorists, Mad Scientists, Lab Accidents and Biological Warfare

Biosecurity ... include at least four types of troubling incidents: Natural events (like the Covid-19 pandemic), lab accidents, bioterrorism and biological warfare. Advancing technology and the expanding human population has made the risk from all four threats grow.

Increased human encroachment on wild habitats, growing urban densities and agricultural practices continue to make naturally occurring infections—like the novel coronavirus—more apt to leap from animals to humans and spread more rapidly. Despite repeated temporary crackdowns, so-called wet markets, offering fresh meat and fish, persist in China and elsewhere.

And while, contrary to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s hints, the Covid-19 virus is likely to have emerged from a Wuhan wet market rather than a lab accident, lab accidents actually have a longer and more worrisome history than many people realize...
...
7. Covid-19’s next level impact

The mounting human death toll and unfolding financial calamity of the current pandemic is one thing. But the ripple effects will last for years—and given the USA's bumbled handling of the virus itself, it seems an open question whether we’re in a strong position to respond and confront what comes after it.

The global reordering of power that has been underway for the past decade—as America retrenches, China grows and Europe’s democratic unity weakens—will only accelerate as the world’s leading economies rethink their economic strategies, political alliances and confront what, at best, might be a yearslong recession.

Gordon says she’s increasingly worried that the U.S. might not meet that moment, paralyzed by partisan politics, a hide-bound bureaucracy, growing income inequality and population trends—like shrinking birthrates and a cutback on immigration—that will yield a rapidly aging population. “Our institutions are not keeping up with the turn of the Earth, and they’re being devalued in the moment,” she says. “Society requires government, yet we’re running out of the structures that make it work.“

Moreover, the country’s ongoing, disastrous response to the pandemic—by almost any measure one of the worst in the developed world—is sending a clear message to other countries that the U.S. can no longer be counted on to lead global conversations. The U.S. didn’t even show up to a massive international vaccine virtual summit this week.

The U.S., if current trends continue, might find that it finally beats the virus in a year or two—but emerges from the pandemic no longer the world leader economically, politically or morally that it’s been for the past 75 years. The world, in turn, may discover in this moment that it doesn’t need the U.S. in the way that it thought it did. That could be even more true if a Covid vaccine emerges first in China or Europe.

There are massive economic, societal and security benefits that come from being the world’s leading superpower. What happens if we’re not anymore? Imagine a U.S. that doesn’t attract top talent. What if the next great innovations happen in Europe or Asia instead of Silicon Valley? What if Chinese venture capitalists get first crack at the hottest deals in the world?

Losing political or financial power also means being forced to make tough trade-offs as the U.S. finds itself unable to invest in critical projects. “We may be forced to make economic choices post-catastrophe that expose our flank on communications, for instance,” Gordon says. “It used to be that we had so much power, it didn't matter if we left our flanks exposed. Now what happens when we're in a world where that ... gap is much smaller?”

The U.S. already finds itself in the challenging position with regard to 5G, the next phase of cellphone technologies. The U.S. is trying to discourage Western allies from adopting the advanced technology developed by China’s Huawei, but is unable to provide an alternative. What if the U.S. can’t stop its allies from using China’s digital infrastructure? What if the U.S. is forced to use it itself? “This has always been my concern with Huawei. … You're turning over control of your most critical infrastructure to an adversary who you implicitly do not trust and has demonstrated it does not deserve your trust,” says Christopher Krebs, director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which is in charge of protecting the nation’s critical infrastructure.
...

GV27

5883 posts

Uber Geek

#2556735 4-Sep-2020 09:24

You do have to wonder if seeing the damage a pandemic can do might push it to front of mind for people looking to cause maximum disruption through terrorism etc.

kingdragonfly

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#2556854 4-Sep-2020 10:48

GV27:
You do have to wonder if seeing the damage a pandemic can do might push it to front of mind for people looking to cause maximum disruption through terrorism etc.

I guess if you were a fundamentalist trying to bring the end times, or an environmental extremist trying to prune the human race.

or if you are Thanos

JaseNZ

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#2556985 4-Sep-2020 13:05

How does this cluster just keep growing, Every day its we have x amount of new case's that are linked to the Auckland cluster, just seems to go on and on.

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GV27

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#2556986 4-Sep-2020 13:06

JaseNZ:

How does this cluster just keep growing, Every day its we have x amount of new case's that are linked to the Auckland cluster, just seems to go on and on.

Because the people isolating are isolating together in their household.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2556989 4-Sep-2020 13:12

Good decision (IMO) and well explained reasons to retain current alert level settings a bit longer.

tdgeek

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#2556991 4-Sep-2020 13:14

And its not Level 4, so it will simmer away. Forget day to day, look at the trend. Plus many of these are already self isolating as they have some relationship with the cluster. It would be nice to know what ones are like that and what are randoms. If they were all like that (cluster related and were already isloatoing anyway), they arent part of any surburban CT spread. Or, if a random turned up from nowhere, and they find he has had some cluster contact, thats a different story. In that scenario the virus is wandering the streets, if its often the former, its like MIQ, a stat but not a spread

GV27

5883 posts

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#2556996 4-Sep-2020 13:26

tdgeek:

And its not Level 4, so it will simmer away. Forget day to day, look at the trend. Plus many of these are already self isolating as they have some relationship with the cluster. It would be nice to know what ones are like that and what are randoms.

Just the one North Shore one we never got clarity on is a 'random' but still from the same outbreak.

I think all others now can be linked back to either the coolstore or the Roskill church.

If you had randoms popping up at this point it would be big news and we would be going up levels for sure.

tdgeek

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#2556999 4-Sep-2020 13:34

GV27:

tdgeek:

And its not Level 4, so it will simmer away. Forget day to day, look at the trend. Plus many of these are already self isolating as they have some relationship with the cluster. It would be nice to know what ones are like that and what are randoms.

Just the one North Shore one we never got clarity on is a 'random' but still from the same outbreak.

I think all others now can be linked back to either the coolstore or the Roskill church.

If you had randoms popping up at this point it would be big news and we would be going up levels for sure.

But while we know all are from the cluster, which is by default now, how many positive tests went to isolation before the test, and how many were in the community when they got a positive test. Do we know this? I see yesterdays one was "already in isolation" which is great. How many are caught "IN" the community?

GV27

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#2557000 4-Sep-2020 13:47

tdgeek:

But while we know all are from the cluster, which is by default now, how many positive tests went to isolation before the test, and how many were in the community when they got a positive test. Do we know this? I see yesterdays one was "already in isolation" which is great. How many are caught "IN" the community?

Are you talking about 'isolating' or 'in isolation'?

Pretty much every case has been within those identified contacts who have been contacted and are self-isolating.

wellygary

8259 posts

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#2557005 4-Sep-2020 14:10

Is anyone able to make heads or tails of this quote from the PM today ... I can't make the numbers add up....

"Since the move to level 2.5 in Auckland there have been another 30 community cases - all associated with the cluster. All are in isolation, as were people detected as close contacts"

Auckland moved out of level 3 at midnight on the 30th, so the cases she is talking about are from

31st, (total 9 cases , 4 in the community)

1st, (total 14cases, 5 in the community)

2nd, (Total 5- 3 in the community)

3rd (total 2 cases - 1 in the community)

and today.... (5 cases - 3 in the community)

I can only see 16 community cases, or 35 total cases ( so 30 total cases if you stopped counting yesterday)

Reanalyse

381 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2557007 4-Sep-2020 14:10

GV27:

tdgeek:

But while we know all are from the cluster, which is by default now, how many positive tests went to isolation before the test, and how many were in the community when they got a positive test. Do we know this? I see yesterdays one was "already in isolation" which is great. How many are caught "IN" the community?

Are you talking about 'isolating' or 'in isolation'?

Pretty much every case has been within those identified contacts who have been contacted and are self-isolating.

If I remember correctly a comment from yesterdays briefing there were no cases found in the "walk/drive in testing", all were already identified and isolating when tested. I think this was the case for the last 5 days. I wish some of the reporters would ask such questions that the usual "who is to blame for.............."

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