2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2561609 10-Sep-2020 10:55

freitasm: Ah, think of the economy. Never mind spreading this thing.

You are getting as cynical as me! I didn't think that was possible.

DS248

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#2561617 10-Sep-2020 11:05

One of the reactions to the upcoming Woodward book relevant here

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-woodward-book-09-09-2020/index.html

Early knowledge about airborne transmission would have saved lives, New Jersey governor says

"If we had known this was transmittable, airborne, at an earlier date – and it sounds like they knew that somewhere in February – the actions that we ultimately took... and as I say, we were at the front end of any American state, we would have taken that much earlier," Murphy said. "And it's inconceivable to me that we wouldn't have been able to save lives as a result of that."

Murphy said the state would have required masks, instituted a stay-at-home-order, and otherwise shut the state down earlier, had it been known that the virus spread by air.

And maybe even have changed our MoH's attitude to masks much earlier? Or maybe not, given their messaging even at a quite late stage?

Edit: Oops "their" not "there"! (fixed)

DS248

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#2561620 10-Sep-2020 11:08

On the lighter side 😉. Ukrainian church leader who called Covid-19 'God's punishment' for same-sex marriage tests positive for virus.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/09/europe/ukrainian-leader-covid-same-sex-marriage-trnd/index.html

freitasm

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#2561638 10-Sep-2020 11:32

msukiwi:
freitasm: Ah, think of the economy. Never mind spreading this thing.

You are getting as cynical as me! I didn't think that was possible.

There is a reason some of my ex-colleagues at a recent job nicknamed me Lord of Darkness.

antonknee

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#2561649 10-Sep-2020 11:54

1101:

...it will drive up distrust & force them into hiding and they then wont follow instructions (testing , isolation). ...double standards... cant go to church (en masse)

This particular group have already proven they can't or won't follow instructions and the law - it's the reason we're now in this situation. Churches are known superspreader events - lots of people, often from varied communities, in one place for a decent length of time, singing and shouting, lots of socialising, lots of hugging etc.

1101:

And name calling lowers the tone of the argument to that of a 7 year old.

100% correct - approach with care and kindness not name calling. But at the same time people cannot and should not put public health (and yes the economy) in such danger and not face some reproach for that.

mattwnz

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#2561739 10-Sep-2020 14:25

1101:

and double standards :
you can sit in a bus with many others(the worst place to be) ,go to supermarket (with possibly hundreds there), send your kids to school with hundreds of others, hang out on crowded beaches, but cant go to church (en masse).

This has all been explained at the 1pm standups.

The problem is gatherings that are considered to be 'social gatherings', where a lot of people know one another and will mingle together for long period of time. Churches have a lot of people who gather together that know one another. Supermarkets, people are physically distanced, so each of those 100 people won't come into direct contact with one another.

But I agree some of them are double standards. eg Funerals. However they are seen as a exception, and everyone is logged, but it has been shown time and time again that funerals/ weddings etc can cause clusters.

Beaches are outside spaces, and the virus is known to spread worst in inside environments.

Buses are also internal spaces, and have shown to cause spreading in this second wave , so IMO I would avoid them. They now require masks to mitigate this, but IMO we should be requiring masks everywhere. Schools are also potentially a double standard, especially as they aren't required to wear masks, but they are supposedly less likely to spread or be affected by it.

Fred99

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#2561740 10-Sep-2020 14:26

This podcast is worth listening to:

Former religious history professor at Massey University, Peter Lineham, talks to Jesse about the struggle to make sure the right information is getting to the church goers.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018763436/getting-correct-covid-19-information-to-church-congregations

(Direct link : https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018763436

TLDR - It's no surprise, it's probably limited to a few churches, imported from the US, and it may be dangerously (for the rest of us) counter-productive to "throw the book" at them.

(Disclaimer - I'm an atheist / occasional spagnostic opportunist).

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#2561771 10-Sep-2020 15:11

Meanwhile... Queenstown mayor wants excessive flight restrictions eased

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/mayor-wants-excessive-flight-precautions-eased-holidays

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#2561782 10-Sep-2020 15:37

Batman: Meanwhile... Queenstown mayor wants excessive flight restrictions eased

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/mayor-wants-excessive-flight-precautions-eased-holidays

Because, as I said... "Think of the economy! Who cares how many will get sick."

mattwnz

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#2561793 10-Sep-2020 15:45

The three scenarios facing Auckland

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12363836

But it isn't just Auckland now, it is the whole of NZ, as the border is now open, and NZ is a mobile society.

What I find surprising, is that they don't know what the likely infection rate of level 2.5 even is to do the modeling, yet they moved down to this level without ring fencing the virus.

Also this "If people are passing it on to more than one other person, it will trend upwards. It might move up slowly to start with, but that will get faster and faster over time, more than likely," he said.

But it appears that they don't really know now how things may go, which appears less certain than they did prior to moving down to level 2.5 .

The way I see it, we may have been able to get back down to a level 1.5 sooner, if we stayed in level 3 longer to ring fence it. But I think we could be in level 2 for months, or if cases go up and they can't be traced to known cases, we could may end up back in level 3 in a few weeks.

trig42

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#2561800 10-Sep-2020 15:59

They thought they had it ringfenced (and it seems they do have the Americold cluster ringfenced succesfully).

But.... people.

The contact tracers and public health departments are only as good as the information they are getting from the public. If they are mislead, or full contact info isn't forthcoming, we get what we've got.

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#2561803 10-Sep-2020 16:05

Fred99

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#2561809 10-Sep-2020 16:12

freitasm:

Batman: Meanwhile... Queenstown mayor wants excessive flight restrictions eased

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/mayor-wants-excessive-flight-precautions-eased-holidays

Because, as I said... "Think of the economy! Who cares how many will get sick."

I'd query how bad the Q'town economy actually is.
I think it's the same situation as in Auckland, some businesses are obviously being hit hard - and they're making a LOT of noise about it.

mattwnz

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#2561813 10-Sep-2020 16:15

trig42:

They thought they had it ringfenced (and it seems they do have the Americold cluster ringfenced succesfully).

But.... people.

The contact tracers and public health departments are only as good as the information they are getting from the public. If they are mislead, or full contact info isn't forthcoming, we get what we've got.

The problem is that they were always up to 14 days behind the infections when leaving level 3. They also already knew that some people couldn't be trusted, so they shouldn't have assumed everyone could be trusted. Managing the virus through contact tracing effectively relies on 100% of information provided by people is accurate, so all close contacts are disclosed, and all people who are close contacts to self isolate, and everyone having to do the right thing. It only needs a few people (maybe even just 1) not to, or to make genuine errors, and holes occur. The only solution in that case maybe level 3 or 4 lockdowns, or far more strict enforcement of the rules. The way I see it, we don't appear to be in much of a better position, than we were heading into level 3. I do wonder if we are now heading for 'suppression, instead of elimination, if the tentacles of this spreads. But suppressionis basically level 2.5 until a vaccine, and level 3 or 4, to slow down big waves like occurred in Victoria, which then means lockdown for months.

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#2561831 10-Sep-2020 16:50

nzkiwiman:

So let me get today's events straight

We have church people who broke the law by having a meeting during lockdown

We have church people who didn't isolate after getting a test, who then infected others

We have a child from the church group going to school and then testing positive

We have people from the church group who aren't advising of all close contacts

We have a bus driver (from the church?) who has been driving while infected

and something about a supermarket being closed

What the ...

And we are allowing these people to freely leave Auckland

In the mean time: STUFF - Churches with links to the US being blamed for spreading Covid-19 misinformation Anusha Bradley of RNZ07:55, Sep 10 2020

As I stated in an earlier post #2555799

..... the authorities (MoH) have an uphill battle against cultural and religious beliefs and this also applies to their church ministers (Catholic/Anglican/Mormon/etc) who though they have a lot of influence also struggle and in some incidences do not want to rock the boat.

“Selfishness is not living as one wishes to live, it is asking others to live as one wishes to live.”
― Oscar Wilde

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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