2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2562720 11-Sep-2020 23:53

Please read what I wrote s l o w l y and then respond to what is written. I am not advocating prosecuting anyone because they spread the virus. I am advocating their prosecution because they ignored a legitimate health order when the legitimacy of the law has already been established. By the way, do you actually know what the word "indemnity" means? It stands for a security against a financial burden -- it's difficult to understand how that applies in context of your sentence "I would be willing to offer formal indemnity improve out contact tracing result", forgetting for the moment that the sentence is practically impossible to parse by reference to ordinary rules of English grammar.

Scott3

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#2562725 12-Sep-2020 00:37

empacher48:

We do have an effective vaccine for the measles, the how come Auckland had the largest outbreak of measles during 2019? How come Samoa closed its boarders with New Zealand because the measles outbreak was carried up there and children started dying?

If the vaccine for Covid comes to fruition, then how many people will actually line up to get it? As can be seen by the sub-cluster with the evangelical church, there is become more and more skepticism of science in society. It will be a challenge for our health authorities to encourage uptake in communities where science is treated with skepticism. Just as it was in Samoa with the measles vaccine.

I don’t peddle conspiracy theories, I look at the numbers, for example here it states there are 7,019,553 active, reported cases in the world. (As at 2144 NZST 11/09/2020) out of 7,800,000,000 people. Of the 7 million or so active cases, there is 60,741 serious or critical reported cases. Of the circa 28,000,000 reported cases circa 20,359,000 have recovered. About 900,000 out of the 41,000,000 who died this year, died from COVID.

I stand by my statement, that fear of the virus is transmitted faster and far more widely than the actual virus.

Measles is extremely contagious in an unvaccinated population compared to covid 19. Without vaccines or mitigation such as social distancing Measles r0 is 12-18, covid-19's r0 is about 5 (a lot of uncertainty remains about that last number).

Because measles is so contagious, we need a very high percentage of the population to be immune (95% is often targeted) in order to get "Herd Immunity". For various reasons NZ community segments have their immunity levels drop significantly below below this level, which allowed measles to get a foothold here. With our quality medical system we were able to care for the infected, but I view his as a major failing of our public health system. The heaviest consequences of this was carried by samoa.

Situation in Samoa was really sad. Two babies got killed when the vaccine was mixed with expired anaesthetic instead of the appropriate diluent. Poor handling of the aftermath lead ultimately led to low vaccine rates, combined with low quality healthcare, it lead to many deaths in children.

One of the reasons is that measles was so rare in the first world that we didn't view out falling immunity rates as big enough concern to put serious effort into resolving. Taking myself as an example, I looked into my vaccination history, and found I had only had a single measles vaccination (95% effective), rather than the now standard two (99% effective), so I had this resolved.

With regards to the covid-19 vaccine, Hopefully we will have some idea of the efficacy of the leading candidates by the end of this year. Because of covid-19 r0 value, the 95% target to get immunity doesn't apply. Hypothetically if the vaccine was 100% effective, and the r0 was as quoted above, 80% vaccine coverage would get us to a R0 of 1. 80% coverage is quite realistic. Also a highly effective vaccine could be used in place of current border measures, even if we don't have herd immunity in NZ. Many countries (not NZ) do this with yellow fever by requiring a vaccination certificate from anybody who has recently been in a affected country.

If the vaccine is poorly effective (say 60%), we may not be able to get herd immunity, but hopefully the vaccine will drop the impact from covid-19 to a level where our hospitals won't get overloaded, and we can treat it like seasonal influenza etc.

With regards to the world-meter data, this is just based on those who have had test results. It is widely understood that many area's have experienced much higher excess deaths this year than their official covid-19 numbers would suggest. I imagine studies will be run in due course to estimate the true infection & death counts.

Scott3

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#2562726 12-Sep-2020 00:58

dejadeadnz:

Please read what I wrote s l o w l y and then respond to what is written. I am not advocating prosecuting anyone because they spread the virus. I am advocating their prosecution because they ignored a legitimate health order when the legitimacy of the law has already been established. By the way, do you actually know what the word "indemnity" means? It stands for a security against a financial burden -- it's difficult to understand how that applies in context of your sentence "I would be willing to offer formal indemnity improve out contact tracing result", forgetting for the moment that the sentence is practically impossible to parse by reference to ordinary rules of English grammar.

Sorry, Mixed up indemnity with indemnify. But yeah, the sentience was riddled with errors. Sentence should have been as follows.

I would be willing to offer formal indemnification to improve our contact tracing results.

I get where you are coming from regarding breaching the heath order, and I have no issue with anybody being prosecuted due to being directly caught doing so. In this case it seems the breach only has come to light because the virus was spread. As such I feel we are best served as a community by not punishing this breach in order to gain more accurate contact tracing information.

kingdragonfly

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#2562745 12-Sep-2020 08:56

Youtube: 'I Have To Disagree' With Trump Saying We've Rounded Final Turn For COVID

MSNBC, Andrea Mitchell

Andrea Mitchell: I wanted to ask you Dr Fauci about something you said Thursday. You said it's time to "hunker down", because the fall and winter in the US is "not going to be easy"

The President says "we've rounded the final turn."

How do you square those two messages?

Dr Fauci: well, you know, I’m sorry but I have to disagree with that.

If you look at the things that you just mentioned, the statistics, they are disturbing.

You know were plateauing at around 40,000 cases a day. The deaths are around a 1,000.

We turned a corner after the labor day weekend on 5 September, I'm hoping that we do not see a surge in cases, as we've seen following the fourth of July and Memorial day on 25 May.

But when you have a baseline of infections that are 40,000 per day, and you have threats of increased test positivity in certain regions of the country, such as Dakota where the Sturgis motorcycle rally happened, and Montana a lightly populated region and places like that, what we don't want to see is going into fall season in the US when people will spending more time indoors.

That's not good for respiratory-borne virus

You don't want to start off with a baseline that's so high.

The thing that thing we've been all talking about, I’ve been stressing this over the last few weeks to a month or more, to try as best as possible to get that level down so that when you go into a more precarious situation where you're really at a disadvantage right from the very beginning.

Fred99

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#2562753 12-Sep-2020 09:46

The reported rebound in cases apparently directly linked to opening up schools etc in the UK (and parts of the US and Europe) is a problem.

dejadeadnz

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#2562802 12-Sep-2020 11:18

The biggest health crisis in the western world ATM (outside of the absolute basket case that's the US) is the relentless screaming for "normality" (i.e. going back to exactly how it was) by mostly a bunch of loud people. Frankly I have stronger views about their character but will leave it at the loud bit. Their motivations vary from the "I lost my job/what I value has been affected and therefore it's an overreaction!" (plenty of evidence in this thread) to manifesting an established pattern of science denial in the absolute wrong area/time and then amplifying them to the Nth degree.

But people need to be consistent: how many of us who can work from home are cheerfully embracing the time/costs savings of going back into the office maybe 1 to 2 times a week? Some of the changes brought by COVID are inexorable -- yes, some people will be absolutely cleaned up; I'd expect things like mental health issues or even suicide to rise eventually. But no individual can seriously expect to reverse these structural changes. The sooner people accept this reality, the better it is for everyone.

We don't need an endless media circus on why a few games of sport won't be held in NZ -- who cares. If we spent 1/20th of the energy that the country has collectively spent bleeting on about the Rugby Championship already to investigate how to reduce child poverty or how to be more resilient for the next pandemic, we might make some useful headway.

arcon

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#2562806 12-Sep-2020 11:43

empacher48:

I stand by my statement, that fear of the virus is transmitted faster and far more widely than the actual virus.

This is an utterly meaningless statement, because fear of the virus is not quantifiable.

Either you know that but you want to push a fringe viewpoint for some reason, or you don't know it because...

The fact is a huge number of people aren't mentally equipped to grasp modeling data. They can't understand the basic logic that a trillion US dollars has already been wiped off the global economy to "only" get 911K deaths, and how catastrophic it would've been if that sacrifice hadn't been made. Because they are simple people. Just because someone is a CEO of a company claiming they're a 'numbers person' doesn't mean in reality they're not a complete backwards moron.

The second group know what they're doing, but as long as it doesn't affect them personally its more important to push their own political narrative... pretty much as selfish as it gets.

ezbee

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#2562896 12-Sep-2020 13:41

Unlike countries like Vietnam and New Zealand, Taiwan has managed to keep its five-month streak of no local COVID-19 transmissions alive.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/taiwans-covid-19-success-story-continues-as-neighbors-fend-off-new-outbreaks/

""
Zero, the number of local transmissions recorded since April 12.

On that day, Taiwan had confirmed a total of 388 cases. As of Friday, Taiwan had recorded a total of 498. Every positive COVID-19 case recorded since April 12 has been either imported – from a person traveling from abroad who tested positive during a mandatory 14-day quarantine – or from a cluster aboard a navy ship returning from a goodwill trip to Palau.
""
The closure of borders to international travelers has led to a domestic tourism boom, with hotspots like Hualien, Taitung, and Kenting seeing overflows of Taiwanese visitors during the summer.
""
Most facemask and social distancing measures have been relaxed since the early months of the pandemic. Masks are still required on public transportation, and many Taiwanese still wear masks on crowded sidewalks or in enclosed areas like shopping malls.
""
Despite its success in stamping out local transmission of COVID-19, Taiwan remains excluded from the World Health Organization.
""

Taiwan.
It can be done, and they have tightened up some border requirements while relaxed internal ones.
For example airbnbs taken of list of self isolation, for locals,
everyone else its only nominated covid hotels, with specific cleaning and monitoring procedures.
Taiwan do require people isolating have a phone with the Government app on it which must be on at all times.
Some found out this is serious when police appeared at their door ( Opps forgot to charge the phone ).
No matter your status you break the rules , and fine results.
New Taipei company owner fined NT$1 million for quarantine violation
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4006890

empacher48

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#2562897 12-Sep-2020 13:48

arcon:

pretty much as selfish as it gets.

As I said earlier, I am a selfish person right now.

This may not have affected anyone on here right now, but it has massive effect on me personally.

I accepted lockdown 1 as the opportunity for the government to buy some time to improve the health response. Increase hospital capacity and buy time so that more information could be gathered about this so when it came back lockdown was not necessary.

Instead those in charge appear to have been asleep at wheel, spending time telling each other that they’ve done a good job. Meanwhile in the background have been a litany of failures at the border, testing and no real changes to our health system. So when it “magically” appears again the community the only choice was lockdown 2.

I expected more from those in charge, but no one has taken responsibility for any of the failures. Which they won’t because they all want to keep their jobs in a month’s time. Who cares if 185,000 people loose theirs? Who cares if suicide rates go up because of the large numbers of people will loose homes, careers, businesses? Who cares about the people who have had scans for cancer, surgery deferred because at level 3 and above those people are not allowed to access the medical care they need? They’re irrelevant compared to the chance someone catches SARS-COV-2.

Fred99

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#2562898 12-Sep-2020 13:49

Assembly of gormless morons today in Auckland.

dejadeadnz

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#2562899 12-Sep-2020 14:12

Cops are yet again asleep at the wheel. These protests need to be broken up by force and they need to station officers near these hotspots to deter such things. It’s not acceptable to have them occur every weekend.

sbiddle

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#2562901 12-Sep-2020 14:23

dejadeadnz: Cops are yet again asleep at the wheel. These protests need to be broken up by force and they need to station officers near these hotspots to deter such things. It’s not acceptable to have them occur every weekend.

Once they had set the precedent by turning a blind eye to the original BLM march a few months ago it's pretty hard to now do something about other protests.

SJB

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#2562945 12-Sep-2020 17:46

Fred99:

Assembly of gormless morons today in Auckland.

Notionally fronted by one of the biggest gormless morons around Jami Lee Ross.

Reanalyse

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#2562946 12-Sep-2020 17:50

sbiddle:

dejadeadnz: Cops are yet again asleep at the wheel. These protests need to be broken up by force and they need to station officers near these hotspots to deter such things. It’s not acceptable to have them occur every weekend.

Once they had set the precedent by turning a blind eye to the original BLM march a few months ago it's pretty hard to now do something about other protests.

There needs to be some consequences for covidiots such as this, perhaps issue a "stay at home for 14 days isolation order" to each person attending due the risks of being in such a large group when covid is active in the community, and if not at home when called then police go for "ok stay at our place"

dejadeadnz

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#2562948 12-Sep-2020 17:54

Surely by now people understand that no mass gatherings and allowed and why? Why do we need to keep "educating" them? The necessary consequence is a conviction. Just do it already.

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