2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2563270 13-Sep-2020 14:27

Oblivian:

Well that's awkward.

Health worker at the Quarantine Facility

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12364482

It's great that our border testing is now functioning to pick up such cases.

But quite worrying that in the short time the border testing has been correctly operating, that we have had two confirmed cases of workers getting sick. Means that the infection mitigation measures taken in such facilities aren't as effective as the public has been lead to believe in press conferences.

Quite possibly this is due to the virus being really infectious, rather than any specific procedural failings, but it does put weight on the importance of border testing.

Also draws attention to how super relaxed our policies on air crew are:

Offshore based air crew allowed to travel via crew bus to a normal hotel (not at managed isolation hotel) - No testing required of hotel staff or their crew bus driver - also very high trust. no security preventing air crew from leaving hotel etc.
No isolation or testing requirements for NZ based air crew returning from Low or medium risk lay overs. - can immediately work on domestic flights.
48hr self isolation then test required for crew returning from high risk layovers, but they are allowed to take domestic flights home during the 48hour isolation period. Once the results for the test are back, they no longer need to isolate and can work on domestic flights. - remember for many the incubation period is a lot longer than 48 hours.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-information-specific-audiences/covid-19-resources-border-sector/covid-19-aviation-sector

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ockel

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#2563275 13-Sep-2020 15:13

Scott3:

It's great that our border testing is now functioning to pick up such cases.

But quite worrying that in the short time the border testing has been correctly operating, that we have had two confirmed cases of workers getting sick. Means that the infection mitigation measures taken in such facilities aren't as effective as the public has been lead to believe in press conferences.

Quite possibly this is due to the virus being really infectious, rather than any specific procedural failings, but it does put weight on the importance of border testing.

Also draws attention to how super relaxed our policies on air crew are:

Offshore based air crew allowed to travel via crew bus to a normal hotel (not at managed isolation hotel) - No testing required of hotel staff or their crew bus driver - also very high trust. no security preventing air crew from leaving hotel etc.
No isolation or testing requirements for NZ based air crew returning from Low or medium risk lay overs. - can immediately work on domestic flights.
48hr self isolation then test required for crew returning from high risk layovers, but they are allowed to take domestic flights home during the 48hour isolation period. Once the results for the test are back, they no longer need to isolate and can work on domestic flights. - remember for many the incubation period is a lot longer than 48 hours.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-information-specific-audiences/covid-19-resources-border-sector/covid-19-aviation-sector

The official release on the Awhina app is that

"This is the first time a staff member at Jet Park has tested positive for COVID-19 in five-and-a-half months of operation. In that time the facility has managed 2532 individuals and their close contacts, who have been transferred from the border, from the other managed isolation facilities and the community"

Which is that either there has been regular testing of the border staff over the last five and a half months OR that the MOH is being extremely disingenuous if there hasnt been regular testing over that period. Its true its the first time but perhaps should be clear about the time frame that testing has been regularly undertaken.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

Scott3

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#2563282 13-Sep-2020 15:43

ockel:

The official release on the Awhina app is that

"This is the first time a staff member at Jet Park has tested positive for COVID-19 in five-and-a-half months of operation. In that time the facility has managed 2532 individuals and their close contacts, who have been transferred from the border, from the other managed isolation facilities and the community"

Which is that either there has been regular testing of the border staff over the last five and a half months OR that the MOH is being extremely disingenuous if there hasnt been regular testing over that period. Its true its the first time but perhaps should be clear about the time frame that testing has been regularly undertaken.

Nothing in that quote indicates that there has been regular testing of workers over that period.

I presume that any workers that had symptoms would have been tested throughout the entire 5 1/2 month period, but my understanding is that the regular compulsory testing was only recently put in place.

Given that a decent chunk of infected people get symptons, even in the absence of routine testing it is a good bet that the number of leaks from jet-park is relatively low.

Also it no longer matters if their were leaks from the facility months ago. If there were leaks, it is likely we got lucky and the infection wasn't passed on, or the chain of transmission has allergy died. Given the rush of testing for people with minor symptoms it is unlikely any other large clusters exist in the community.

Personally I think we should continue to stack the odds further in our favor and have less dependence on luck.

kingdragonfly

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#2563285 13-Sep-2020 15:51

mattwnz

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#2563287 13-Sep-2020 15:51

This is why you really have to watch the wording from press releases, as to how it is worded. This is why daily standups are needed, so reporters can ask questions to extract information. They seem to have really stepped back from doing these standups for some reason.

So weren't the staff at the Jet park all being routinely tested before now? Staff can't test positive unless they are actually tested, as many people who get this virus never show symptoms, and they can then still spread it. The severity seems to be based on the amount of exposure you get We most likely got the second outbreak through holes in the border processes somewhere, and it may have initially spread from someone who didn't have symptoms and never got tested. Maybe it is down to luck that we haven't had more detected community cases. But our testing numbers aren't great.

I see in the UK, their testing numbers now would be the equivalent to if NZ was doing 25,000 tests a day, and they are stepping it up even more. We have been lucky to get up 1/5th of that prior to the second outbreak. Even now we are lucky to get 7000 tests a day. I just think we need to get tougher. I suspect things will change after the election. Not a great time to be running an election IMO, and I just wish the election was over, because it isn't as though there are even any major policies and ideas from the major players due to Covid, including how to deal with this virus any better that it is currently being dealt with. .

kingdragonfly

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#2563290 13-Sep-2020 16:03

Batman:
medical hack of the century?

researchers suggest facemasks mimic (live virus) vaccination

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12364442

The NZ Herald really didn't bring out the subtle difference, but at least gets the point across that wearing masks is good.

For a bit of context, for small pox variolation used viral matter from smallpox patients, usually pus from a light case of smallpox.

The first vaccination, meanwhile, used matter from the milder cowpox virus.

As a milder disease carrying the same immunities, cowpox matter was much safer.

mattwnz

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#2563292 13-Sep-2020 16:08

kingdragonfly:
Batman:

medical hack of the century?

researchers suggest facemasks mimic (live virus) vaccination

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12364442

The NZ Herald really didn't bring out the subtle difference, but at least gets the point across that wearing masks is good.

For a bit of context, for small pox variolation used viral matter from smallpox patients, usually pus from a light case of smallpox.

The first vaccination, meanwhile, used matter from the milder cowpox virus.

As a milder disease carrying the same immunities, cowpox matter was much safer.

IMO, this is exactly why EVERYONE should be wearing masks in NZ, at least in the current outbreak area, Auckland. They do seem to be having a dramatic effect all over the world. Children aren't required to wear them in NZ, where they are overseas, and children are now some of the people being infected in NZ and potentially spreading it around.

tdgeek

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#2563319 13-Sep-2020 19:24

mattwnz:

IMO, this is exactly why EVERYONE should be wearing masks in NZ, at least in the current outbreak area, Auckland. They do seem to be having a dramatic effect all over the world. Children aren't required to wear them in NZ, where they are overseas, and children are now some of the people being infected in NZ and potentially spreading it around.

Yes, would be good. But are the weekly protesters, and they are very numerous and increasing now, wearing them? No.

If EVERYONE played by the basic rules, such as distancing, washing hands, that would make a big and ongoing difference. The occasional flouters won't have a dramatic effect, but the fact is, many aren't buying into basic rules it seems. So, the tail will be long for these reasons. Its a human issue, people get tired of it, so they drop off.

The enforcement needs to fill that gap. Like in the ChCh EQ's, steal a gas bottle, ok you are arrested, in custody, we will hear you in Court in two months

GV27

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#2563322 13-Sep-2020 19:35

Bought a mask at the local chemist, went shopping at a clothes store in a mall, apparently it's fine to just keep using changing rooms etc. Which was great for me but it seems like that's something we'd need to rethink if things got silly again. I resorted to measuring myself and checking old labels so I could minimise what I'd need to try on, and ended up buying the one thing I tried on.

Also, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12364545&fbclid=IwAR1m1h0bcC68DEozdjkBbDtD31xUrRAi6N4tgbKjftaBfRUahcNuPpso4WU

A person with Covid-19 visited the Les Mills gym in Takapuna and the Countdown supermarket and The Warehouse at Milford - all on Auckland's North Shore - before knowing they had tested positive.

Auckland Regional Public Health is warning anyone who visited the Les Mills gym in Takapuna on September 9 and 10 and attended certain Body Combat and Sprint classes is now being treated as a close contact.

The classes included the Wednesday September 9: 5.30pm RPM Sprint class and 6.15pm Body Combat class; and the Thursday September 10: 9.15am Body Combat class

A spokesperson said the person also visited The Warehouse and Countdown in Milford on Thursday September 10.

Sideface

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#2563326 13-Sep-2020 20:11

BBC News - Comedy Wildlife Photography Awards 2020 finalists

The finalists of this year's awards have been announced, each one showing the power of anthropomorphism.

Sideface

freitasm

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#2563327 13-Sep-2020 20:12

I hope they bubble Auckland again.

dejadeadnz

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#2563361 13-Sep-2020 21:40

To me, a lot of the debate around whether certain (ahem) people associated with a certain church are utter morons or not or whether X case will have Y impact can be important but still broadly miss the bigger points. If COVID doesn't teach everyone the absolute moral imperative of helping your children or kids that you can influence to understand the importance of being able to think critically, assess evidence, and actually actively and resolutely reject any notion of unreason/being uneducated as some kind of "cool", it will be the biggest lesson missed ever.

A lot of these people think/behave the way many of the idiots do not just because they live in/grew up in insular environments. Their stupidity has also been aided and abetted by a society that obsesses itself with so called "live and let live" and notions of courtesy where calling out the absolutely stupid and baseless is seen as some kind of personal attack, where everyone is apparently entitled to a "go" and can spout off on whatever they want, save in the knowledge that most people will just turn their heads or giggle to themselves at worst. I am by no means telling anyone to get the pitchforks out or whatever -- but teach your kids that people are out to manipulate them and get them to understand simple differences in fundamental concepts like correlation and causation, what constitutes a logically consistent argument, and buy them a book each year on how to think better or to detect BS.

It'll be way better time spent then bleeting on about who's the starting fullback for some whatever rugby game or just leaving your kids to idly run around screaming and shouting to each other because you'd rather shop for [insert name of consumer item].

freitasm

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#2563363 13-Sep-2020 21:49

dejadeadnz:

A lot of these people think/behave the way many of the idiots do not just because they live in/grew up in insular environments. Their stupidity has also been aided and abetted by a society that obsesses itself with so called "live and let live" and notions of courtesy where calling out the absolutely stupid and baseless is seen as some kind of personal attack, where everyone is apparently entitled to a "go" and can spout off on whatever they want, save in the knowledge that most people will just turn their heads or giggle to themselves at worst. I am by no means telling anyone to get the pitchforks out or whatever -- but teach your kids that people are out to manipulate them and get them to understand simple differences in fundamental concepts like correlation and causation, what constitutes a logically consistent argument, and buy them a book each year on how to think better or to detect BS.

People these days see to not understand the difference between reality and propaganda. Back in the 90s Carl Sagan wrote The Demon-Haunted World and one of the most important parts on that book is The Baloney Detection Kit.

Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”

Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.

Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them.

Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.

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#2563366 13-Sep-2020 21:52

I do wonder how different current times would have played out if Facebook and Twitter were non existent. Or blocked from use for the period

I see them as the pedestal for the crazies and distortion. Sure, the blogs and wix sites and youtube nuts would likely still be there, but their freely spread by other believers advertising platform would be next to gone.

dejadeadnz

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#2563369 13-Sep-2020 22:05

freitasm:

People these days see to not understand the difference between reality and propaganda. Back in the 90s Carl Sagan wrote The Demon-Haunted World and one of the most important parts on that book is The Baloney Detection Kit.

Never forget the deadly sin of Narcissistic Certainty, e.g. God has a way; "It's common sense!"; "Exact same treatment of people = fair" etc. Because somehow everything in life has to be simple and manageable and ambiguity is for morons.

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