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  #2473444 29-Apr-2020 15:55
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Here's the graph for Wednesday 29th April from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2473632 29-Apr-2020 19:50
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  #2474196 30-Apr-2020 17:09
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Here's the graph for Thursday 30th April from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2474246 30-Apr-2020 19:21
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  #2474865 1-May-2020 15:25
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Here's the graph for Friday 1st May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2474885 1-May-2020 16:20
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Also good to see the number of clusters are reducing..





CPU: Intel 3770k| RAM: F3-2400C10D-16GTX G.Skill Trident X |MB:  Gigabyte Z77X-UD5H-WB | GFX: GV-N660OC-2GD gv-n660oc-2gd GeForce GTX 660 | Monitor: Qnix 27" 2560x1440

 

 


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  #2474895 1-May-2020 16:36
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mentalinc:

 

Also good to see the number of clusters are reducing..

 

 

Yes, one "retired" today and a strong hint that there will be a number more in the next few days.
The criterion is no more cases related to the cluster for 28 days

 

🤞


 
 
 
 


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  #2474904 1-May-2020 16:51
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  #2474938 1-May-2020 18:34
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Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest during the Covid-19 Outbreak in Italy 

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2010418?query=TOC

 

 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2474961 1-May-2020 19:42
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PolicyGuy:

mentalinc:


Also good to see the number of clusters are reducing..



Yes, one "retired" today and a strong hint that there will be a number more in the next few days.
The criterion is no more cases related to the cluster for 28 days


🤞



Interesting. I would have thought that a cluster reducing below 10 would have been the criteria, as it was going above to create it. In theory, you could have a cluster consisting of one or two people go on for quite some time perhaps?

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  #2475390 2-May-2020 15:57
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Here's the graph for Saturday 2nd May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 

 

 

 

The "Active Cases" line is flattening off rather ominously

 

 


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  #2475406 2-May-2020 17:10
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  #2475408 2-May-2020 17:12
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I wouldn't say ominously, I'd say expectly.

It takes what 10 days plus another 48 hours of being symptom free to not be an active case. If you look back 12-14 days the main peak of cases has passed so now expect a gradual decline.

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  #2475412 2-May-2020 17:27
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PolicyGuy:

 

The "Active Cases" line is flattening off rather ominously

 

 

Yes... it was particularly noticeable to me, because I still have my 17-day sum estimate in my spreadsheet, which I overwrite with each day's reported MoH active figure. My sum was 106, whereas MoH said 202. With only 5 in hospital, that suggests that many non-hospitalised cases must be lasting much longer than 17 days.

 

Which is also odd, because when I changed to the 17-day sum on 23rd April (i.e. a bit over a week ago), that was reasonably close to the MoH number. So, over the last week, there are suddenly 96 more old cases? I'm guessing that the MoH criteria for 'active' has been changed, or the process for clearing active cases has stalled. Maybe now it needs more than a self-declaration?

 

I'd like to be in the Beehive theatrette to ask Ashley about that on Monday. Anyone know a journalist who will be there?

 

 


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  #2475790 3-May-2020 14:31
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Here's the graph for Sunday 3rd May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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