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  #2475875 3-May-2020 15:38
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As discussed above, I've reintroduced my calculated active cases, based on a 17-day infection time as the dotted blue line. The solid blue line shows the MoH announced values, and you can see how the deviate from each other.

 

 




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  #2475938 3-May-2020 17:53
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A variation of the McDowall/The Spinoff plot with new recoveries added alternatively as percentages of active cases 5, 7 & 14 days prior.  New recoveries plotted are centred averages over three days to provide a bit of smoothing.

 

Five or possibly seven days prior seems to give the most consistent trend (at ~6% of active cases)?  Or should the rate of recovery drop over time if less affected people recover first (as per the 10 days prior trend)?  In all cases the numbers of recoveries over the last few days is a smaller proportion of active cases.  

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2475964 3-May-2020 19:58
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That graph annoys me.

 

What is "revovered"? (Not a typo? once, but 3 times in the same graph)

 

It is a term I am not familiar with.

 

 

 

Edit: Forgot the ).


neb

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  #2475981 3-May-2020 20:02
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msukiwi:

What is "revovered"? (Not a typo? once, but 3 times in the same graph)

 

 

When you get over a severe case of covfefe, you've revovered.



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  #2476048 3-May-2020 20:39
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Oops.... Oh dear, looks like an Ro of 3 on that typo 😥. Apologies. Can't edit it anymore.

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  #2476052 3-May-2020 20:49
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DS248: Oops.... Oh dear, looks like an Ro of 3 on that typo 😥. Apologies. Can't edit it anymore.

 

You should have said that it was a deliberate mistake to see if anyone was paying attention :-)

 

(I appreciate your reply, I hope the Ro can be bought back to 0 - I'd hate for GZ to instigate a Level 4 Lock Down)


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  #2476296 4-May-2020 13:56
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Here's the graph for Monday 4th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


 
 
 
 




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  #2476528 4-May-2020 17:35
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Update of an earlier plot (#2471492) comparing NZ to Taiwan & HK.  Vietnam & S. Korea now added.  Despite no new cases cases today (in fact none with 'Date of  report' = 2  or 3 May), we are still a long way from matching the four Asian countries.  And a long way short of eliminating the virus.  Taiwan can now probably be considered to have eliminated the virus locally (full 3 weeks with no local cases) and Vietnam not far behind (2.5 weeks no local cases).  Rates of local cases in HK and S. Korea are about an order of magnitude lower than in NZ.  Taiwan and Vietnam, two orders of magnitude lower than in NZ.

 

Forward projection for NZ is based on 'local' cases in the last 3 weeks of L4 which is shown by the heavy black line. The small discrepancies between this and the grey line for NZ local cases are because I changed my definition of 'local' case for NZ.  Previously included all cases not classified as 'Overseas travel' by MOH.  I have revised this due to recent cases where the time between return to NZ and 'Date of report' is more than 30 days, and in particular one where someone returned from the Cook Islands 34 days previously (there being no COVID-19 cases in the Cook Islands, at least as of 5 days ago).  Now treating cases as 'Imported' only if arrival from overseas was less than 3 weeks before the 'Date of report' (& probably should cut that back to  14 - 16 days max).  'Local' is everything else.  Does raise questions re where infections did come from in many of those who returned to NZ more than 14 days before the 'Date of report'. 

 

The NZ data plotted includes Confirmed and Probable.  This is mainly because some Probable cases are situations where no testing was performed due to risk of traumatising patients.  Applies especially to dementia cases and young children (only 20% of cases are Confirmed for children under 10 years old).  Need more info about other Probable cases.  Would also be good to see antibody testing of Probable cases to confirm whether they had been infected.  Removing Probable cases still leaves NZ well above South Korea & HK.  And for HK at least, the definition of imported is also tighter (max of 14 days from arrival to report date in all except case. Ninety five percent < 10 days after arrival in HK).  

 

Will be interesting to see how we do track under L3 relative to the projection from the L4 data.  Still a lot of Waitakere nurses in isolation! 

 

 

 




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  #2476535 4-May-2020 17:54
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Chile not performing well under full lockdowns only in specific regions 

 

 

 




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  #2476536 4-May-2020 17:56
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Singapore cases tracking back down slowly.

 

 

 


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  #2476593 4-May-2020 19:32
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  #2477045 5-May-2020 15:08
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Here's the graph for Tuesday 5th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2477637 6-May-2020 10:21
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Incidentally, my 17-day total of active cases is predicting 0 active cases on 18th May, assuming no new cases are found.

 

 


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  #2477673 6-May-2020 11:28
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I was confused by this slow recovery of active cases after you pointed it our. A bit of googling turned up the fact that a significant number of cases seems to take a longer time to recover.

 

I've see normal case recovery times estimated at 2-3 weeks (hence the 17 days number I assume), but up to 6 weeks for severe cases.
I'd expect that active cases will linger in June even if we had no new infections.



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  #2477686 6-May-2020 11:50
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I picked 17 just because that number of days gave me about the same answer as MoH were reporting on 23rd April. Prior to that I was using 14 days, which was just TLAR. It really is a pity that the MoH spreadsheet doesn't record a recovery date.


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