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738 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2482824 13-May-2020 15:06
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Here's the graph for Wednesday 13th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And back to the former colour-scheme too


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  #2482844 13-May-2020 15:48
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nzkc:

 

 

 

I think the cases this week have all been related to existing clusters or with health professionals working with existing cases.  I recall one even being from international travel too. I don't think we're seeing any community transmission that is a concern with relaxing of the levels.

 

I think we're going to have a long tail no matter what.  Little (emphasis on little) bumps aren't much to worry about as long as we're still trending down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There has been the odd case of transmission within someones bubble over the last few weeks, from existing clusters . What is happening in China with the relaxing of the rules is a concern to me, especially as they are very strict over there. They are now getting new clusters in Wuhan, and are now going to test everyone. The odd ting is that China aren't including asymptomatic cases that test positive in their numbers, but I understand NZ is, and I understand these are numbers being reported to the WHO. IMO we should have looked at testing the population to weed out the cases, which they do say they expect there to be. IMO our relaxing of the rules , including allowing schools to open again without physical distancing required in classrooms, is a concern IMO so early on. Not sure though how much they are going to enforce people to send their kids to schoo. 


 
 
 
 




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Ultimate Geek

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  #2482862 13-May-2020 16:17
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Situation in SK highlights how quickly things can change.  They went from an order of magnitude fewer new local cases per day to higher than NZ in just two days.  Re-emphasizes that just one case can quickly become a significant cluster (as we have already experienced with some of our clusters).  Doubt we have the resources to bring a flare-up of the type in SK under control without at least a local lockdown of some sort?  And I suspect if that had occurred here it may not have been detected as quickly as it was in SK.

 

Of this group, only Taiwan and Vietnam can be considered to have effectively eliminated the virus locally, with no new local case in four weeks (well Vietnam possibly 1 day short of that).  SK had one tenth of our numbers but even that was not sufficient to prevent the flare-up.  We are still a long way short of this.

 

 

 


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  #2482866 13-May-2020 16:23
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neb

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  #2483283 14-May-2020 00:10
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Latest from Austria:

 

 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2483813 14-May-2020 14:07
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Here's the graph for Thursday 14th May - Budget Day - from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2483851 14-May-2020 15:47
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Actives continue to grind down, now 65...

 

We are getting so close, but there is a now a whole lot more chances of spread under Level 2, so if there is any COVID out there it will likely show up.....

 

It feels a bit like that scene in Star wars.....

 

"....you're sure the homing beacon is secure onboard their ship? I'm taking an awful risk, Vader. This had better work."


 
 
 
 


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  #2483855 14-May-2020 16:07
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  #2483924 14-May-2020 17:32
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Is there any way to determine how many of the active cases are associated with the 16 clusters?


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Ultimate Geek


  #2484021 14-May-2020 19:47
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mm1352000:

 

Is there any way to determine how many of the active cases are associated with the 16 clusters?

 

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

 

Link above has daily details of the clusters. A bit of arithmetic shows that 69 cases have not recovered. That number is not active cases; it also includes fatalities. But even attributing all deaths to the clusters shows that the majority of active cases remaining are cluster related.


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  #2484437 15-May-2020 13:31
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As you can see, I've changed the Y axis scales to show the current situation better, where previously the detail was tending to disappear.

 


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  #2484439 15-May-2020 13:34
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now 56 active today,

 

The new case today (15 May) was an undiagnosed recovered case from the Marist Cluster, so not a "new" infection,but does imply there is significant testing going on around cluster contacts...

 

On 1 May we had 1476 cases, we now have 1498, so soon we are going to hit a floor of about 20 active cases, that will then only fall further if we continue to get 0 new....


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  #2484443 15-May-2020 13:45
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wellygary:

 

now 56 active today,

 

The new case today (15 May) was an undiagnosed recovered case from the Marist Cluster, so not a "new" infection,but does imply there is significant testing going on around cluster contacts...

 

On 1 May we had 1476 cases, we now have 1498, so soon we are going to hit a floor of about 20 active cases, that will then only fall further if we continue to get 0 new....

 

 

 

 

Yeah a bit disappointing in the way they communicate it.

 

Should be "Zero new cases today. We have tested and detected a historic and now recovered case through our cluster screening"





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Ultimate Geek

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  #2484520 15-May-2020 16:19
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Here's the graph for Friday 15th May from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2484914 16-May-2020 16:11
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