COVID-19: Data, analysis, research links & related discussion

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#2494578 29-May-2020 18:55

nzkc:

That's quite a negative view. Many, maybe all, of those things were going to happen regardless of how strict or not we went. Just look abroad at whats happening in the UK, US and Sweden.

What is great is we are now in a position to start tackling those issues and focusing solely on them. Yes we have to do it with closed borders (although trade still comes and goes...not as easily I accept). We are in a position where, if we so choose, we can open our borders. Not that I want that right now cause of whats happening abroad (some exceptions like the Pacific Islands), but we have that choice because we'd be accepted abroad.

We've done something quite unique and whether other countries would admit it or not they will be very envious of where we are.

I feel very fortunate and am thankful we have worked ourselves into this opportunity.

1000%

When, after all this, if our biggest issue is if we can get to the Gold Coast next week, that is huge. Businesses are open, they will get more freedom vey shortly, possibly more aid, we can rebuild from right now, not on 6+ months like everywhere else

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frankv

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#2494606 29-May-2020 19:44

nzkc:
frankv:

Well, not really. We still have closed borders, and a bunch of people without jobs, and and another bunch with disrupted schooling, and a bunch of businesses close to or actually insolvent.

We, the fortunate, can go back to life as usual, traveling and socialising and recreating and churching and all those other good things. But, for quite a number of people, those things (maybe excluding churches) are out of reach. And we've still got to pay for the bailout.

That's quite a negative view. Many, maybe all, of those things were going to happen regardless of how strict or not we went. Just look abroad at whats happening in the UK, US and Sweden.

What is great is we are now in a position to start tackling those issues and focusing solely on them. Yes we have to do it with closed borders (although trade still comes and goes...not as easily I accept). We are in a position where, if we so choose, we can open our borders. Not that I want that right now cause of whats happening abroad (some exceptions like the Pacific Islands), but we have that choice because we'd be accepted abroad.

We've done something quite unique and whether other countries would admit it or not they will be very envious of where we are.

I feel very fortunate and am thankful we have worked ourselves into this opportunity.

I didn't mean to be negative. I really meant that now is not the time time to sit back and congratulate ourselves. Yes, we've done extremely well, and going down other paths would have been much worse. But we still have some work ahead of us.

tdgeek

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#2494622 29-May-2020 19:51

frankv:
I didn't mean to be negative. I really meant that now is not the time time to sit back and congratulate ourselves. Yes, we've done extremely well, and going down other paths would have been much worse. But we still have some work ahead of us.

I agreed with him and I agree with you. We can enjoy where we are as well as be careful. Assuming we are near free of the virus, probably less need to be careful and lets get the economy going, but that Tasman Bubble is where e need to be careful. Winston wants it, Tourism wants it, Health doesnt. If the election wasn't in 3 months we can probably just debate it, but the demand will be pushed heavily now, irregardless pf the health =, and therefore economy risks

nzkc

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#2494623 29-May-2020 19:56

frankv:
I didn't mean to be negative. I really meant that now is not the time time to sit back and congratulate ourselves. Yes, we've done extremely well, and going down other paths would have been much worse. But we still have some work ahead of us.

I agree with you. With one small exception. I think it is worthwhile to congratulate ourselves. We should celebrate the wins! And yes, we absolutely have much ahead of us.

tdgeek

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#2494626 29-May-2020 19:59

nzkc:

frankv:
I didn't mean to be negative. I really meant that now is not the time time to sit back and congratulate ourselves. Yes, we've done extremely well, and going down other paths would have been much worse. But we still have some work ahead of us.

I agree with you. With one small exception. I think it is worthwhile to congratulate ourselves. We should celebrate the wins! And yes, we absolutely have much ahead of us.

Yes, with all the political bantering/bagging, and aside from those that flouted, it was a collective effort, cliche or not

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#2497634 3-Jun-2020 20:03

I think/hope this will be the last graph I post... I'll only post another one if things take a turn for the worse.

neb

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#2497722 3-Jun-2020 22:26

frankv:
I think/hope this will be the last graph I post... I'll only post another one if things take a turn for the worse.

Well, I dunno, posting a graph every now and then showing a nice flatline would be kinda reassuring...

nzkc

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#2497815 3-Jun-2020 23:34

frankv:

I think/hope this will be the last graph I post... I'll only post another one if things take a turn for the worse.

So what you're saying (well the graph is saying) is that our 1 case will be 0 cases tomorrow ;-)

The averages you've applied have been quite impressive because its actually been what has played out in the stats. So kudos to you for working that out and showing it.

DS248

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#2503929 13-Jun-2020 01:47

Updated comparison between Japan, USA & several European countries, with NZ included for contrast. Shows per capita cases in UK, Sweden and USA ~two orders of magnitude higher than in Japan, with the 'better performing' European countries having broadly similar rates, in between. More significantly though, the latter are showing a slow but steady decrease in daily rates of new cases, whereas in the US & Sweden there has been little to no reduction in rates of new cases over the last 2+ months. Rates of new cases in the UK have come down very slowly over the last month but remain well above those in Germany et al.

The rates of new cases in Japan reduced significantly between mid-April and mid-May but disconcertingly have not decreased since then. The rate of new cases (~0.3 pm/day) is presumably considered manageable, especially since several European countries appear to consider a rate 10x that manageable.

There are of course many factors that make direct comparisons tenuous (testing rates, case definitions, ...). Per capita test rates in the US & European countries are though now generally on a par with, and in many cases higher than the rates for NZ & AU. Even the UK has now tested 50% more people per capita than NZ, and the US ~15% more.

The per capita testing rate in Japan is much lower. Despite that, the case fatality rate in Japan (CFR 5.4%) is only moderately above that in most of the European countries (4% - 4.9%, Norway 2.8%) and is comparable with the US (5.7%). The per capita fatality rate in Japan is much lower than in those countries. Given Japan has the highest proportion of elderly people in the world, under-counting of cases in Japan seems unlikely to be much different from the situation in the European countries and the US. Fatality rates in Sweden (13.3%) and the UK (14.4%, ~same as Italy) are a lot higher (in the latter case, partly due to overwhelmed hospitals). The data therefore suggest that the per capita case rate margin between Japan and the other countries is real. Although many people have been working from home and social distancing, Japan had no lockdown and subway trains etc continued to run. One of the main contributors to the lower case rates appears to be the use of face masks in Japan.

The case fatality rates for NZ and AU (both 1.4%) are of course significantly lower than any of the above.

frankv

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#2505654 16-Jun-2020 11:02

Interesting free-to-read article in the Economist on the changing demographics in the USA, in particular that Republicans are increasingly patients.

DS248

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#2507020 17-Jun-2020 23:23

Taiwan revises criteria for release from isolation. Subject to two negative tests at least 24 hours apart, can now be released after 10 days from symptom onset/initial positive test.

https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/RqdalfZQWQctgc6rsgh5SA?typeid=158

On June 17, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) announced that confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can be released from isolation if they meet all three conditions listed below.
1. The lapse of time between a confirmed case’s hospitalization in isolation ward and symptom resolution should be at least three days;
2. The case has two consecutive negative results of respiratory specimens obtained at least 24 hours apart (nasopharyngeal and throat, or sputum, specimens should also be collected on the same day the testing conducted for release from isolation, and the specimens must test negative for SARS-CoV-2);
3. There should be a lapse of ten days after the onset of symptoms (a lapse of ten days after an asymptomatic patient tested positive the first time).

frankv

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#2514019 28-Jun-2020 16:37

The current situation, as reported today, so as usual I'm assuming it actually relates to yesterday.

NB Changed the secondary (blue) "active cases" axis scale by a factor of 10 from my previous graphs. Also, I haven't been tracking the MoH reported count of active cases, hence a straight line from 1 on 3rd June to 20 yesterday.

cshwone

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#2514069 28-Jun-2020 17:07

Thanks for doing these graphs but I think the one you posted above is pretty meaningless. All the new cases are held at the border in effect and are a function of arrivals in the country. If we get non-border related cases then extending the graph would make sense.