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3833 posts

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  #2515687 1-Jul-2020 14:49
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cshwone:

 

Thanks for doing these graphs but I think the one you posted above is pretty meaningless. All the new cases are held at the border in effect and are a function of arrivals in the country. If we get non-border related cases then extending the graph would make sense.

 

 

Yeah, I agree. Really need to separate out the isolated cases from the rest. I'll see what I can do.

 

 


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  #2516884 3-Jul-2020 16:34
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There's something interesting happening with infection rates & mortality. The graphs below are from the Worldometer (and, yes, I know worldometer is untrustworthy -- maybe someone can find some trustworthy numbers?). I'd expect that death rates would more or less mirror infection rates, except (obviously) smaller numbers and a couple of weeks later. But that doesn't appear to be the case. Death rates have been more or less constant at 3-5k per day since late April, whilst infection rates have about doubled, from about 80-90k to over 150k.

 

I'm wondering if the new mutation is not only 3-9 times more infectious, but also much less virulent. Hence the renewed growth in infections, but a constant death rate.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2516892 3-Jul-2020 16:48
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I had noticed that too, and it could be the case. But I am wondering if it isn't partly due to a lot more testing, so a lot more  people with  asymptomatic cases getting detected.


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  #2516899 3-Jul-2020 17:08
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mattwnz:

 

I had noticed that too, and it could be the case. But I am wondering if it isn't partly due to a lot more testing, so a lot more  people with  asymptomatic cases getting detected.

 

 

Ditto, there is definitely a flattening/stabilising of the mortality curve.

 

I've seen  a number of possible explanations or it may be a combination of all of them

 

1) The Virus has become less lethal

 

Professor Matteo Bassetti, the chief of infectious diseases at San Martino General Hospital in Genoa, Italy, said the virus had changed since earlier in the spring and become much less virulent, with more patients in Italy recovering from severe symptoms.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-matteo-bassetti-downgrades-tiger-wild-cat-no-vaccine-20200621-cd3wj33buvc6be5u6olhaitgxe-story.html

 

2) Treatments have improved,  Dexamethasone etc,

 

3) Curve Flattening has resulted in Hospitals and ICU not being overrun as they were in the initial outbreaks....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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  #2516997 3-Jul-2020 20:06
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Yeah, I get all of that. But this is such a radical change, where effectively the CFR has halved. And many of the new infections are in poor countries like Brazil and Peru where, in my preconceptions, the health system ought not to be able to cope.

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  #2517050 3-Jul-2020 20:54
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It could be as simple as the age of those being infected. For example a significant number of the new cases in the USA under under 35 years old. The death rate is very low for younger people. And it's really significant for the over 60.

This would mean that since the poorer countries have a higher proportion of young people so their death rate overall it's going to be low.

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  #2517076 3-Jul-2020 22:51
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Some good seven day rolling average charts for countries, showing the recent upticks on those that came out of lockdown early

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/03/health/coronavirus-lockdown-lifting-deadly-charts-intl/index.html

Clint

 
 
 
 




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Ultimate Geek

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  #2522581 14-Jul-2020 09:40
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Further evidence that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may be relatively short-lived (medrxiv preprint)

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf 


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