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423 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2454148 4-Apr-2020 06:29
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mattwnz:

 

Tinkerisk:

 

Just for explanation why older people in Germany seems to be more affected. Most fatalities of age 80+ are direct hits in senior homes with a high concentration of elder people on a single spot. In general this is quite devastating especially when they are dement people you can't just evacuate.

 

The care personnel was lacking masks and protection gear as well hence they brought in the virus from the outside as well as visitors. Clinics and hospitals have been served first due to their high demand. At the time being the senior homes are completely locked but people are very depressed due to the lack of social contact to their relatives. At least they got iPads now for video calls to their beloved.

 

 

This is a concern. I wonder if NZs retirement workers are all wearing masks etc? Anyone know? 

 

 

 

 

My wife is a Care Worker for 2 companies (quite common practice to get enough work) and has many clients in rest homes. She has no PPE apart from gloves. None supplied by either of her two employers.  One company has said that PPE is now on the way to local offices for distribution but we don't know what that is yet.

 

Biggest thing to bear in mind for care workers looking after elderly, dementia or infirm people is that they can't maintain social distances. My wife has been torn between the risks of catching and onward transmission with the very real risk of the impact on her clients if she doesn't go.


423 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2454176 4-Apr-2020 09:12
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To me, as a layman, this from stuff, actually seems to be quite an informed item.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120731509/coronavirus-how-hard-how-early-the-numbers-behind-new-zealands-quick-lockdown

 

Would appreciate some comment from the more informed.


 
 
 
 


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  #2454394 4-Apr-2020 14:01
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I've dispensed with the log-log axes and graphing new against total cases. Below is a simple graph of new cases vs time. Data sourced from MoH website 4/4/20. I've left out the values for 4/4/20 because they are only partial data (to 9am, I guess).

 

 

 

I think it's interesting that, up to 1/4/20 the average looked like a classical bell curve. It's a little concerning that it has departed upward from that in he last couple of days. But perhaps that's just a reflection of the increasing testing.

 

 

 

 

 


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  #2454426 4-Apr-2020 14:38
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cshwone:

 

To me, as a layman, this from stuff, actually seems to be quite an informed item.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120731509/coronavirus-how-hard-how-early-the-numbers-behind-new-zealands-quick-lockdown

 

Would appreciate some comment from the more informed.

 

 

FWIW, our latest figures are 41 new for 3/4/20, giving 431 for the week, vs 899 total, which now puts us between Japan and India at about the same total caseload in that log-log graph. But I'm not sure that's a fair comparison, since both those countries have vastly larger populations, and will therefore tend to track towards the right-hand side of the graph.

 

I first thought that graphing new vs total cases was a good way to track progress of the disease and our response to it. Now, I think that simply graphing new vs time (as above) gives more or less the same picture. So long as new cases continue to drop, we're doing well.

 

However, a change in testing strategy, as suggested by the PM, could see an increase in "new case" numbers. That doesn't mean that there *are* more new cases, just that cases that were previously invisible are being found.

 

 




786 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2454515 4-Apr-2020 16:46
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There is a bit of a problem with the MOH data.  They seem to be juggling around the 'Date of report' dates.

 

Their summary data (& the TV broadcast) state 52 new confirmed cases reported at 1:00 pm, 4 April 2020, plus a further 30 new probable cases, bringing the total confirmed and probable to 950.

 

The individual case dataset indeed includes 950 cases (confirmed and probable) but shows only 41 confirmed + 21 probable with 'Date of report' = 3 Apr, plus 2 confirmed with 'Date of report' = 4 Apr.  That adds to 64 combined (3&4 Apr) vs 82 new cases in the 4 April 2020 summary data.

 

Below compares the individual case datasets for 3 & 4 Apr.  The first value is from the 4 April dataset and the following value in brackets is for the (3 April dataset).

 

 

 

Date of report      Confirmed      Probable 

 

1 April                 61 (60)          12   (9)
2 April                 53 (45)          23 (19)
3 April                 41   (0)          21  (0)
4 April                  2                    0  

 

Looking at the 1 and 2 April figures.  Those changed between the two datasets, with the latest values being higher than the corresponding numbers in the dataset for the day before.

 

So clearly they are changing the report dates as they go along and on the basis of the above the numbers for 3 April may increase in later datasets?  At the least the numbers of the last day (or two?) cannot be relied on.

 

Based on the 4 April dataset we would appear to be doing very well, but in the summary data the number of new confirmed+probable cases increased to 82 from 71 yesterday & is higher that the average for the preceding four days (70).

 

Seems like we may need to wait a few more days to know whether today went up or down.  Really great that they have at last upped the testing numbers though. 

 

 


1150 posts

Uber Geek


  #2454587 4-Apr-2020 18:50
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now includes the number of tests and the tests per 100.000 population as well.





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786 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2454612 4-Apr-2020 19:29
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Thanks for pointing it out.  I missed had that.  Testing in NZ has ramped up a lot over the last few days, now a bit over 3600 per day with capacity to do 6000 per day (initial capacity 1500 per day).  But are reserving some of the testing capacity for random surveys etc they hope to start in few days.


 
 
 
 




786 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2454705 5-Apr-2020 02:19
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DS248:  ... Their summary data (& the TV broadcast) state 52 new confirmed cases reported at 1:00 pm, 4 April 2020, plus a further 30 new probable cases, bringing the total confirmed and probable to 950.

 

...

 

Below compares the individual case datasets for 3 & 4 Apr.  The first value is from the 4 April dataset and the following value in brackets is for the (3 April dataset).

 

Date of report      Confirmed      Probable 

 

1 April                 61 (60)          12   (9)
2 April                 53 (45)          23 (19)
3 April                 41   (0)          21  (0)
4 April                  2                    0  

 

Looking at the 1 and 2 April figures.  Those changed between the two datasets, with the latest values being higher than the corresponding numbers in the dataset for the day before.

 

...

 

 

 

Ah, I see what is happening.

 

The 82 new cases added yesterday (52 confirmed, 30 probable) have been added in at different report dates as follows:

 

Date of report      Confirmed      Probable 

 

1 April                 +1                +3
2 April                 +8                +4
3 April                 +41              +21
4 April                 +2                 0  

 

Total                    +52              +28

 

Which explains all but 2 new probable cases, which have presumably been added in at an earlier date (31 Mar? - haven't checked).  Have seen this with some other countries data

 

It will be 2 - 3 days before we have a reliable number for the number of cases confirmed in 3 April.

 

 


Mad Scientist
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  #2454709 5-Apr-2020 03:20
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DS248:

 

Thanks for pointing it out.  I missed had that.  Testing in NZ has ramped up a lot over the last few days, now a bit over 3600 per day with capacity to do 6000 per day (initial capacity 1500 per day).  But are reserving some of the testing capacity for random surveys etc they hope to start in few days.

 

 

can you point to where it says we are getting random testing? cheers





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.




786 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2454739 5-Apr-2020 08:16
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Mentioned in the Q&A part of yesterday's 1 pm MOH briefing (ie. Sat 4 Apr briefing - fairly certain it was in the Q&A bit though could have been mentioned earlier).  Some test capacity being reserved for (?) investigations including random survey to provide info on the actual extent of infection (?).  Do not recall the actual wording or detail of what was described but there was discussion of random sampling.  Not certain that was all that is intended to be done (I did not hear everything.  I rarely can hear the reporters questions - have a significant hearing loss).  Needed to inform decision making.  Likely the message from a few academics is starting to get through.

 

 


750 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2454740 5-Apr-2020 08:17
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Batman:

can you point to where it says we are getting random testing? cheers



During yesterday's 1300 press conference, Dr Bloomfield said they were looking to stand a surveillance program up in the next few days. He mentioned it both during the brief, and in response to a question.

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  #2454742 5-Apr-2020 08:21
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Ge0rge:
Batman:

 

can you point to where it says we are getting random testing? cheers

 



During yesterday's 1300 press conference, Dr Bloomfield said they were looking to stand a surveillance program up in the next few days. He mentioned it both during the brief, and in response to a question.

 

if that's true i will begin to have some faith in the system. if we're not actively hunting the virus like sir david skegg said we must, our destination is no different from other countries, only slower.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2454746 5-Apr-2020 08:38
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Batman:

 

if that's true i will begin to have some faith in the system. if we're not actively hunting the virus like sir david skegg said we must, our destination is no different from other countries, only slower.

 

 

Its step by step process. If we did random sampling some time back thats a wasted effort. Thats why the lockdown comes first, to stem the tide, then when that causes transmission to slow, its worth seeking it out. Deal with what you can control, then that allows future steps to be manageable. 

 

Unsure why you said "if thats true" Its been pointed out multiple times it was stated 


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  #2454747 5-Apr-2020 08:41
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Ge0rge:
Batman:

 

can you point to where it says we are getting random testing? cheers

 



During yesterday's 1300 press conference, Dr Bloomfield said they were looking to stand a surveillance program up in the next few days. He mentioned it both during the brief, and in response to a question.

 

Makes total sense now. We have borne the impact of bringing Kiwis back, enforced a lockdown to break the chain of transmission, the virus spread has been heavily impacted. With the lockdown still in place, and I'd wager an extra two weeks, time is right to random sample.


10615 posts

Uber Geek


  #2454776 5-Apr-2020 09:24
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More about cats as possible vectors:

 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.021196v1

 

Bad news and (maybe) better news:

 

BAd News: ~15% of cats tested in Wuhan had been infected with Covid-19
Cat to cat transfer had been shown in a previous study.

Better news: no confirmed cases of cat to human transfer have been recorded.
None of the cats that tested positive indicating that they'd been exposed / infected tested positive for presence of the virus using PCR.

 

So that's a pre-print (not peer reviewed), but like a previous pre-print where cats were shown to be able to be infected and cat to cat transfer was shown to have occured, the data looks good and there is real cause for concern.

 

 


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