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neb

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  #2457308 8-Apr-2020 13:10
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For some other stats, I've been looking at ADS-B traffic on Flightaware, I'm seeing a drop from about 160 flights a day before the lockdown to around 30 a day now. The Flightaware guys have sent out instructions on how to change the warning threshold because many feeders are now getting (false-positive) outage alerts because of the drop in traffic.

 

 

Edited to add: Hmm, just noticed that AirborneKiwi is offline, he's a GZ member from memory...



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  #2457343 8-Apr-2020 14:12
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frankv:

 

DS248:

 

The case data would be much more useful if it included date of testing. 

 

 

And date of recovery.  

 

Definitely.  Better outcome and date of outcome.

 

 


 
 
 
 




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  #2457424 8-Apr-2020 14:52
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Re NZ including 'probable' cases in the total

 

Only 62% of the Chinese cases were confirmed; ie:

 

 

 

Total 72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)

 

Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)
Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)
Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)
Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

 

Data for China at 11 Feb (almost 90% of their cases by then) from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report presented in https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130 (Wu et al)

 

 


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  #2457578 8-Apr-2020 16:46
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  #2458399 9-Apr-2020 14:43
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A couple of interesting plots from Singapore showing:

 

1. an explosion of local cases following a spike in cases in the second half of March.  Quite different from the Taiwanese plot of imported and local cases that I posted previously.  Not increase in local cases following a spike in imported cases.  (Presumably the spikes in imported cases in both cases is people returning home to escape overseas hotspots & travel restrictions?)

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Average number of days from onset of symptoms to isolation for 'Local Unlinked' cases.  Average for the last 10 days or so looks to be around 5  - 5.5 days.  Note it is to 'isolation' not test confirmation.  Possibly add on another ~2 days for that?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/local-situation-report/situation-report---8-apr-2020.pdf




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  #2458493 9-Apr-2020 16:03
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Now the decrease in NZ new cases does look for real.

 

About 13 days from lockdown to start of drop in cases.  Close to expected.

 

Question now is whether NZ cases will continue to trend down over the next 3 - 4 days or whether they will flatted out as per AU?

 

No drop off yet for Chile.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: updated test numbers (per mil) and CFR-7 to 8 Apr (so easy to forget the details!) 




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  #2458547 9-Apr-2020 16:55
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Update of plot comparing trajectories for selected high income European, Asian and Pacific countries (cropped to 100k cases).

 

Taiwan now significantly out performing other 'similar' Asian countries (well outperforming almost every country) 

 

Japan & Singapore show worrying recent upticks in total cases.

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2458558 9-Apr-2020 17:07
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  #2458894 10-Apr-2020 13:08
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Thanks for this data thread - I'm finding it really interesting.

 

Just want to add this abc au news link from this morning detailing the growth rate of the virus in the last month, not only for Australia, but also includes good graphs for NZ, and many other countries.

 

It shows the success Australia and NZ (and many other countries) have been having recently in getting things under control. 
It also warns about the data limitations if the testing is not being done in a way to find cases that are hiding (because infected people to not meet the test criteria for example, or for any other reason a country doesn't test enough).

 

Finally of interest is that it manages to have data breaking out the growth rate for Australian Community transmission.


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  #2458963 10-Apr-2020 15:26
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  #2459481 11-Apr-2020 17:54
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  #2460061 12-Apr-2020 17:21
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neb

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  #2460133 12-Apr-2020 20:37
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Latest graph from the friend in Austria who's sent me the previous ones:

 

 

 

 

He also commented:

 

 

My updated graph, averaged over 5 days now. If I had to give guidance for Western countries then 1.00e-05 deaths per capita per day would be the threshold that they shouldn't cross. It seems that above that the health system crashes. In the case of the US one would have to look at the numbers for NY separately on the other hand it's also true that they managed to move many doctors and equipment to where they are needed so the country value still makes sense.



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  #2460156 13-Apr-2020 00:33
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Comparison between new cases per million population (pm) in Australia, NZ, South Korea and Taiwan

 

New cases per capita in NZ and AU for 11 April very similar.  AU cases started to drop earlier but have near flat lined for the last five days at 3 - 4 pm.

 

The spike in cases occurred earlier in S. Korea but at its peak was similar to the peak rate for NZ & AU.  Drop from peak to 3-4 per million was similar to what we have now seen in NZ & AU but continued down to ~2 pm, then stabilised for 3 wks before slowly decreasing over the last week and a half to under 1 pm yesterday.  Showing a long tail at around 1 - 2 pm daily infections (many imported though).

 

I will be interesting to see if NZ flattens out a 3-4 pm as per AU or, with its more restrictive lockdown, continues down to levels similar to S. Korea or below?

 

Regardless of lockdown, likely to be a reasonably long tail if only because of imported cases. 

 

Taiwan is still getting occasional local cases after many weeks of very low levels of infection (despite no general lockdown) but the large majority of their infections are imported.

 

 

 

 

 

 


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  #2460172 13-Apr-2020 08:31
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It's concerning that S Korea and Taiwan can't eliminate the disease, even after 6 weeks of very low infection rates.

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