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  #2464337 17-Apr-2020 17:29
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The following plot shows NZ new local cases confirmed each day up to yesterday (16 Apr).  Be aware though that the figure for yesterday will be tentative (not all reports in?).  Generally the 'yesterday' figure rises a bit (or more) over the following day or two. 

 

As indicated, our local cases confirmed each day have been flat at ~12 per day over the last four days.  At 13, yesterdays was in fact the highest total over the four days.  Note that in this plot the date is the 'Date of report' in the MOH individual case data (date when infection confirmed?), whereas the date in the plot in my previous post is the day before the date on which the data are released.  Have to use that date as I do not have 'date of confirmation' for some of the countries.

 

 

 

 

Small edit to make yesterdays number clearer and correct chart title. 

 

 


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  #2464365 17-Apr-2020 18:20
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I want to call out @DS248  @frankv and @PolicyGuy for these graphs and commentary.

 

Well done and thank you. Most of us are ingrained in these developments but are lay people. Thanks also @Fred99 for your commentary, you have an intellectual interest in this, and I'm sure its appreciated by many here. 

 

@freitasm FYI

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2464763 18-Apr-2020 14:15
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Here's the graph for Saturday 18th April from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2464765 18-Apr-2020 14:22
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  #2465100 18-Apr-2020 22:02
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Interesting article about Hokkaido 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055


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  #2465174 19-Apr-2020 07:06
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DS248:

 

Interesting article about Hokkaido 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055

 

 

Very. A few concerns. They don't test much. NZ has tested almost 2% of the population to date. Max capacity is about 1% per 6 weeks. NZ had the most strict restriction at L4. When Japan re introduced their restrictions on wave 2 they are very very loose "Most people are still going to work. Schools may be closed, but shops and even bars remain open." They also had little top down national management. Scared to test in case minor symptom positive tests flooded the hospitals. Seems very much head in the sand stuff to me. Adds value to the NZ approach. 




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  #2465318 19-Apr-2020 11:08
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A review of two studies into the effectiveness of surgical masks. 

 

https://www.jwatch.org/na51322/2020/04/13/surgical-masks-provide-source-control-respiratory-viruses?query=C19

 

The first reports on tests performed pre-COVID-19 but includes patients with coronavirus (as well as flu and rhinovirus) infections:

 

Masks led to a notable reduction in the number of RT-PCR–positive respiratory droplet and aerosol samples for patients with either coronavirus (in respiratory droplets, from 30% to 0%; aerosols, 40% to 0%) or influenza infection (respiratory droplets, 26% to 4%; aerosols, 35% to 22%); there was no meaningful reduction seen with rhinovirus infections.

 

The second studied patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection wearing no mask, a surgical face mask, or a two-ply cotton mask.  The masks were not effective. However, the study included just four (4) patients coughing onto petri dishes containing viral transport media ~20 cm from their face.  Barely relevant to use normal situations such as supermarket shopping, especially in the current era of social distancing.

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 




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  #2465330 19-Apr-2020 11:25
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Plot showing how bad the situation has become in Singapore.  At the end of March they were on a downward trend with only half the number of daily infections in NZ at the time.  

 

Also, our testing per capita now marginally ahead of AU (though slowing down of test rate there is probably because they have fewer new infections per day - probably more so for only infections as their import content is higher).

 

 

 

 

 




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  #2465375 19-Apr-2020 12:29
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Further to the Singapore situation.  Plot below shows that the current explosion of cases started as a surge in imported cases from early March to early April with an escalation over the same period of 'community' cases (now subsiding) and a bit later in the Work Permit Holder community not in dorms, followed by an ongoing explosion in cases in dorm residents from ~the start of April (the dorm residents predominantly being Work Permit Holders from the likes of Bangladesh, India, Indonesia etc).  Tellingly, 920 (893 in dorms) of the 942 new cases reported on 18 Apr were Work Permit Holders.  Just 22 cases being 'community'!

 

 

 

 

 




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  #2465410 19-Apr-2020 13:41
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Link to source for the Singapore plot in my previous post that I forgot to add at the time!

 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/default-document-library/20200418_daily_report_on_covid-19_cabinet.pdf?sfvrsn=1dc49d3_0

 

 


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  #2465420 19-Apr-2020 14:01
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Here's the graph for Sunday 19th April from Chris McDowall | The Spinoff

 

 

 


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  #2465435 19-Apr-2020 15:00
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  #2465762 19-Apr-2020 23:01
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Interesting article on the Great Manchurian Plague of 1910-11

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/china/great-manchurian-plague-china-hnk-intl/index.html


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  #2465778 20-Apr-2020 00:47
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DS248:

 

Interesting article on the Great Manchurian Plague of 1910-11

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/china/great-manchurian-plague-china-hnk-intl/index.html

 

 

The big difference now is that we have planes that can quickly distribute this virus all around the world very quickly.As soon as this problem was detected, IMO travel should have been restricted from China, which is a post I made back in late January. I couldn't believe that there wasn't already some form of global system in place that could  quickly act on this, to quarantine it within the region, and then a second barrier at the country border, so it couldn't leave the country. Obvious there are going to be multiple  investigations on a global scale to see why it went so wrong , and what will be done next time it occurs.


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  #2465779 20-Apr-2020 00:50
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mattwnz: Obvious there are going to be multiple  investigations on a global scale to see why it went so wrong , and what will be done next time it occurs.

 

 

Benefit of hindsight. If you look at the countries that had a plan ready to go and handled it really well, it was the Asian nations that had been hit previously with SARS. For everyone else, it would have been difficult to do more than was done earlier than was done because no-one would have stood for it.

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