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  #2456175 6-Apr-2020 20:24
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Yes, I can understand why they don’t want to. The number of New Zealanders who will spend the sort of money that Americans will is vanishingly small.

As an example, I know the manager of one of the luxury lodges in NZ. They had a family group rent the “Owners Cottage “ on the estate.

US$140,000 for 8 days.





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  #2456187 6-Apr-2020 21:11
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Handle9:

 

I think domestic tourism may grow a bit but the companies are very likely to be radically different and offering different activities. A ton of tourism companies will simply go to the wall, as unfortunately you well aware.

 

 

 

 

I'm sure it will grow too, but that's only going to be a fraction of the numbers that international tourism brings.

 

In places like Queenstown it's going to be brutal - there are a few new hotels scheduled to open down scheduled to open in coming months (from memory adding about 500 or 600 rooms) which are simply going to be empty.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2456188 6-Apr-2020 21:15
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MikeB4:


There will be casualties but I feel many of the failures were already lame ducks before Covid-19.



During the GFC I was a commercial banker, and in my SME portfolio of clients, largely it was those business owners who were living beyond their means by borrowing against the equity in their homes that fell over. Eventually the equity was so low the bank had no choice but to say “no”. There was nothing left for a rainy day.

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  #2456196 6-Apr-2020 21:41
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Geektastic: Yes, I can understand why they don’t want to. The number of New Zealanders who will spend the sort of money that Americans will is vanishingly small.

As an example, I know the manager of one of the luxury lodges in NZ. They had a family group rent the “Owners Cottage “ on the estate.

US$140,000 for 8 days.


I'm not arguing external tourists don't bring more money. The caving guys at waitimo were telling us about some of the Chinese tourists that rent the entire cave network and get helicoptered in to do the tours, the money since people have is ridiculous

The business I was talking about is sending kiwis overseas, kiwis that now can't go overseas. So their operating model is to either sell holidays that they don't know for sure they can go on or wait it out until the end of the international lock down that could potentially be a year away. Either way is not financially sustainable as they aren't going to sell many on option 1 or any on option 2. At least a high end local option may see some money entering their company to try and stay afloat instead of the financial black hole once the government subsidy runs dry. They were trying to start selling their packages to Americans so any NZ product could be retained for that market once these bans get lifted.

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  #2456248 7-Apr-2020 07:41
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Kiwifruta: During the GFC I was a commercial banker, and in my SME portfolio of clients, largely it was those business owners who were living beyond their means by borrowing against the equity in their homes that fell over. Eventually the equity was so low the bank had no choice but to say “no”. There was nothing left for a rainy day.


I work in commercial banking and a senior credit manager said yesterday: "economic conditions have been very good for a decade, customers asking for significant sums need to show us how they have prepared for the rainy day that is now here".


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  #2456250 7-Apr-2020 07:51
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MileHighKiwi:
Kiwifruta: During the GFC I was a commercial banker, and in my SME portfolio of clients, largely it was those business owners who were living beyond their means by borrowing against the equity in their homes that fell over. Eventually the equity was so low the bank had no choice but to say “no”. There was nothing left for a rainy day.


I work in commercial banking and a senior credit manager said yesterday: "economic conditions have been very good for a decade, customers asking for significant sums need to show us how they have prepared for the rainy day that is now here".

 

My Grand Parents survived the Great Depression and their advice to us was ....

 

If you cant afford it now you don't need it so save and you might discover you never needed it and now you have that money. 

 

$1 income - $0.90 expenditure= happiness. $1 income - $1.10 expenditure = sadness. 

 

Don't prepare for tomorrow prepare for the next year.





Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


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  #2456270 7-Apr-2020 08:46
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Handle9:

 

I think domestic tourism may grow a bit but the companies are very likely to be radically different and offering different activities. A ton of tourism companies will simply go to the wall, as unfortunately you well aware.

 

 

I think it will be easy to buy a used low-mileage camper van for relatively little money and join the 'grey nomads' this summer


 
 
 
 


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  #2456271 7-Apr-2020 08:49
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MikeB4:

 

My Grand Parents survived the Great Depression and their advice to us was ....

 

If you cant afford it now you don't need it so save and you might discover you never needed it and now you have that money. 

 

$1 income - $0.90 expenditure= happiness. $1 income - $1.10 expenditure = sadness. 

 

Don't prepare for tomorrow prepare for the next year.

 

 

Mr Micawber's famous, and oft-quoted, recipe for happiness: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

 

David Copperfield by Charles Dickens, 1850


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  #2456273 7-Apr-2020 08:50
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Geektastic: Yes, I can understand why they don’t want to. The number of New Zealanders who will spend the sort of money that Americans will is vanishingly small.

As an example, I know the manager of one of the luxury lodges in NZ. They had a family group rent the “Owners Cottage “ on the estate.

US$140,000 for 8 days.

 

There is/was definitely some crazy money out there and I think a lot of owner-operators are going to have to manage their expectations.

 

I'd love to know the breakdown of where that NZ$236k all goes but I'm sure there are both Porsches and family trusts involved somewhere.


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  #2456275 7-Apr-2020 08:54
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PolicyGuy:

 

MikeB4:

 

My Grand Parents survived the Great Depression and their advice to us was ....

 

If you cant afford it now you don't need it so save and you might discover you never needed it and now you have that money. 

 

$1 income - $0.90 expenditure= happiness. $1 income - $1.10 expenditure = sadness. 

 

Don't prepare for tomorrow prepare for the next year.

 

 

Mr Micawber's famous, and oft-quoted, recipe for happiness: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

 

David Copperfield by Charles Dickens, 1850

 

 

I preferred Mike's version.. I'ma simple man of metric means





Handsome Dan Has Spoken.

 

Handsome Dan is currently WFH.

 

Handsome Dan is perplexed...and a little stir crazy.

 

Handsome Dan is well and truly over Home Detention...

 

Some people were just born stupid. 


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