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  Reply # 1013338 26-Mar-2014 18:26
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Technofreak:
networkn: Apparently back to Pilot Suicide, but I can't see it somehow. To kill yourself you would just get to say 10K feet and point the nose at the ground, it's over. Secondly, not many people would kill themselves at the expense of 238 other peoples lives. Seems insufficient motive to my mind.


I tend to agree with you.  If it was suicide the only reason I can see for flying to the the presumed crash location could be to make it hard to prove suicide, as finding the wreckage and CVR and FDR would be difficult


I agree. Crashing is easy, deception to avoid instance or cultural shame, makes sense in that scenario

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  Reply # 1013341 26-Mar-2014 18:30
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I think some form of aircraft failure is the most likely cause, but I think it maybe a certain series of events that led to something, rather than just a single thing. I mean these things are built by humans, so they aren't perfect. So they may have seen a warning somewhere, and they started turning things off, and that in turn led to something else happening that had never been tested. I think the host plan theory, where both pilots were unconscious and noone from the cabin was able to get into the cockpit is a bit of a scary scenario . Noone in the cabin can communicate with the ground, as they are locked out. Unless they find the black box soon, I think people will continue to search for it for years, and it will become a bit like finding the titanic.

 
 
 
 


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  Reply # 1013354 26-Mar-2014 18:56
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mattwnz: I think some form of aircraft failure is the most likely cause, but I think it maybe a certain series of events that led to something, rather than just a single thing. I mean these things are built by humans, so they aren't perfect. So they may have seen a warning somewhere, and they started turning things off, and that in turn led to something else happening that had never been tested. I think the host plan theory, where both pilots were unconscious and noone from the cabin was able to get into the cockpit is a bit of a scary scenario . Noone in the cabin can communicate with the ground, as they are locked out. Unless they find the black box soon, I think people will continue to search for it for years, and it will become a bit like finding the titanic.


I don't go with the mechanical failure theories.  Too much would have had to fail - and for whatever could have caused those failures to also not "take out" some critical system to keep the plane in the air just doesn't add up.
The alternative explanations are pretty awful, but if a rogue pilot had the secure cockpit to himself, he could depressurise the cabin, easily outlast the oxygen supply to the passengers, the other pilot and cabin crew, and then have the plane to himself.  There were reports that the plane climbed to 43,000 feet after the transponder was disabled - which fits in with that scenario, as survival time would be minimised.  Above 40,000 feet, the oxygen masks for passengers are not very effective (the masks for the cockpit are quite a different type - and are effective - if you know how to use them) Once that time had elapsed - with a "safe margin" he could drop altitude long before his oxygen ran out and repressurise the cabin - as everybody else will have died.  IMO, this is probably what happened.

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  Reply # 1013373 26-Mar-2014 19:14
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Fred99:I don't go with the mechanical failure theories.  Too much would have had to fail - and for whatever could have caused those failures to also not "take out" some critical system to keep the plane in the air just doesn't add up.
The alternative explanations are pretty awful, but if a rogue pilot had the secure cockpit to himself, he could depressurise the cabin, easily outlast the oxygen supply to the passengers and cabin crew, and then have the plane to himself.  There were reports that the plane climbed to 43,000 feet after the transponder was disabled - which fits in with that scenario.


Too much had to fail. Not necessarily. An oxygen bottle failure could  do it.  Where it is located a failure of an oxygen bottle could take out equipment in the avionics bay and punch a hole in the fuselage and leaving no oxygen for the crew.

Much has been made of the differing times between the transponder being "turned off"and the ACARS being "turned off". More recent comment suggests that the expected ACARS report that was due sometime after the transponder was "turned off" but not received could have been due to the ACARS actually having been disabled some time between the previously received signal being sent and the next expected signal.  In other words the transponder and ACARS might have been disabled at the same time

The climb to 43,000 feet has been ruled out as at the aircraft was unable to attain that altitude for it's weight at that time.  Primary radar returns can be highly unreliable.




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  Reply # 1013377 26-Mar-2014 19:24
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Technofreak:
Fred99:I don't go with the mechanical failure theories.  Too much would have had to fail - and for whatever could have caused those failures to also not "take out" some critical system to keep the plane in the air just doesn't add up.
The alternative explanations are pretty awful, but if a rogue pilot had the secure cockpit to himself, he could depressurise the cabin, easily outlast the oxygen supply to the passengers and cabin crew, and then have the plane to himself.  There were reports that the plane climbed to 43,000 feet after the transponder was disabled - which fits in with that scenario.


Too much had to fail. Not necessarily. An oxygen bottle failure could  do it.  Where it is located a failure of an oxygen bottle could take out equipment in the avionics bay and punch a hole in the fuselage and leaving no oxygen for the crew.

Much has been made of the differing times between the transponder being "turned off"and the ACARS being "turned off". More recent comment suggests that the expected ACARS report that was due sometime after the transponder was "turned off" but not received could have been due to the ACARS actually having been disabled some time between the previously received signal being sent and the next expected signal.  In other words the transponder and ACARS might have been disabled at the same time

The climb to 43,000 feet has been ruled out as at the aircraft was unable to attain that altitude for it's weight at that time.  Primary radar returns can be highly unreliable.


I don't go with that either, as the plane turned left, flew over the Malay peninsula, then turned right over the Malacca Strait so it didn't go into Indonesian airpspace, then turned left to end up heading where it seems it did.
A pilot was in control - absolutely no doubt.  As for a "lost" pilot with all navigation systems down, a smartphone held near a cockpit window would get a GPS fix.  The flight path was also just out of range of Australian OTH radar.  Too many coincidences for it to have been a cascading series of accidents.


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  Reply # 1013381 26-Mar-2014 19:33
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joker97: Well due to non response of the Thai Malay and Indonesian airforce we will probably never know why

 

Aparently no one like anyone around that area so they don't freely give out info unless asked at a diplomatic level....




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  Reply # 1013387 26-Mar-2014 19:39
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if they don't like each other they'd have scrambled jets to identify the UFO trespassing their airspace at 2am local time

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  Reply # 1013389 26-Mar-2014 19:46
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joker97: if they don't like each other they'd have scrambled jets to identify the UFO trespassing their airspace at 2am local time


Except as far as we know, the only airspace intruded on was Malaysian, they've demonstrated that they're hapless, and in any case by the time they'd have been able to scramble and intercept, the UFO would have already been gone.

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  Reply # 1013402 26-Mar-2014 20:45
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Fred99:
I don't go with that either, as the plane turned left, flew over the Malay peninsula, then turned right over the Malacca Strait so it didn't go into Indonesian airpspace, then turned left to end up heading where it seems it did.
A pilot was in control - absolutely no doubt.  As for a "lost" pilot with all navigation systems down, a smartphone held near a cockpit window would get a GPS fix.  The flight path was also just out of range of Australian OTH radar.  Too many coincidences for it to have been a cascading series of accidents.



I'd like to know how they came up with those tracks.  Primary radar is not reliable

I guess what i'm also saying is there been so much conflicting information, how do we know what to believe?

Have you ever tried to get a smartphone GPS fix in a moving object without data access to help get an initial fix.  I know from experience it takes ages to not happening at all.




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  Reply # 1013403 26-Mar-2014 20:48
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Fred99:
I don't go with that either, as the plane turned left, flew over the Malay peninsula, then turned right over the Malacca Strait so it didn't go into Indonesian airpspace, then turned left to end up heading where it seems it did.
A pilot was in control - absolutely no doubt.  As for a "lost" pilot with all navigation systems down, a smartphone held near a cockpit window would get a GPS fix.  The flight path was also just out of range of Australian OTH radar.  Too many coincidences for it to have been a cascading series of accidents.



is this flight path confirmed? if so then pilot is to blame. for what reason i'm not sure.

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  Reply # 1013404 26-Mar-2014 20:49
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also why it then turned south to head towards the southern indian ocean after evading indonesian airspace.

PS i thought it trespassed southen thai (the chilli shaped bit that holds malaysia's northen hand)

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  Reply # 1013412 26-Mar-2014 21:03
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I'm also suspicious of some of those fixes.  We have various military forces with their radar, none will want to divulge exactly what their capability is, or that they never saw something they should have seen.  I wouldn't be surprised that some of these fixes could be fabricated.




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  Reply # 1013420 26-Mar-2014 21:12
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Best conclusion from the evidence is a crazy pilot planning hard to create a mystery and unexplained death. Yet to know if insurance might be a partial motive in that thinking.

But really there is much not known. Erebus for instance showed that a lot can come out afterwards and there can be many motives for governments and corporations misleading the public.

Next stage is crash investigation and black box recovery which looks to be a drawn out process if ever at all.

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  Reply # 1013427 26-Mar-2014 21:19
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joker97: also why it then turned south to head towards the southern indian ocean after evading indonesian airspace.

PS i thought it trespassed southen thai (the chilli shaped bit that holds malaysia's northen hand)


I don't know if it's "confirmed 100% etc" that it evaded Indonesian airspace before heading toward the Southern Indian Ocean, but it must be very likely.  These countries don't seem to want to 'fess up" - in case they divulge "secret" military surveillance capability.  This is all probably very daft - as they'll be buying the same stuff from the same suppliers (and a lower quality of stuff than the Europeans, US etc keep for themselves).
The Thais said they "detected something".  The theory at that time was that MH370 was flying low.  Anyway at 400+ knots - 10 minutes or so - and MH370 was gone.  The Malaysians should have seen it coming.  Perhaps their Air Force don't talk to civilian ATC at 2:00 am.


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  Reply # 1013443 26-Mar-2014 21:49
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Was the fact the plane reached 44000FT A guess or did it actually happen? I thought the planes could not reach that height?


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