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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1950224 1-Feb-2018 16:55
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PhantomNVD:
Dulouz:

Seems that leafs are now becoming very short in supply and the price is quickly rising. Personally, I blame this sub.



@Dulouz... this “sub”? What does that mean please?

Thread? Sorry, I forgot what platform I was on.




Amanon



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  Reply # 1950248 1-Feb-2018 17:40
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MikeAqua:

 

I still don't see a net economic benefit in EVs when you look at the extra purchase price.  Whenever I run the maths the purchase premium needs to be about half what it is. 

 

 

This is exactly why there need to be purchase  support measures. 

If this was just about technology it wouldn't be a problem. 

But this is about keeping large parts of Nelson, Dunedin, Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington in NZ....and hundreds of other cities elsewhere ..... from disappearing under the waves. They don't need to underwater. They just need to be flooded heavily every 5 years to be unlivable. 

There needs to be a lot more urgency around reducing emissions.......because what we have *already* released is *already* making things a lot warmer....and very quickly. 





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  Reply # 1950252 1-Feb-2018 17:47
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MikeAqua:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

MikeAqua:

 

Most manufacturers also sell ICEVs and don't want to cannibalise that market too quickly. 

 

 

I don't see how it's cannabalising any sales for them. Cannibalisation implies that people are switching to more desirable items at a lower margin. If anything they're making a premium on EVs at the moment, so they would be netting more profit from each sale, not less.

 

 

Manufacturers have significant investment in existing ICEV vehicle production.  They wouldn't like to see ICEVs rapidly replaced by EVs because it will reduce the revenue streams from some big assets and/or may require large assets to be substantially devalued and/or retooled. 

 

A gradual transition works for ICEV manufcaturers.  So you see a price premium on their EVs (before subsidies), sluggish improvements and relatively low fit-out levels.

 

Tesla by contrast don't have anything invested in ICEV production so they are going as fast as they can.  Their vehicles are well equipped and perform better than most EVs.  They are also trying to beat the price down.

 

Unfortunately Musk seems to be emptying the entire clip into his foot on the production side of things.  Innovation and production are quite different disciplines.  I hope they get it sorted, but you wouldn't catch me risking a deposit for a Tesla 3 (if I could afford one).

 



What you describe is exactly why China said to car manufacturers: "You will make electric cars now or you won't be making cars at all." 

China knows "the market" is often about NOT giving consumers what they need - especially when barriers to entry are very high and expensive. The money and skill required to make a good car is outrageously non-trivial.....as Elon Musk is demonstrating every day. 

The incumbents won't change unless forced to. It's that simple.  





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  Reply # 1950253 1-Feb-2018 17:47
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Linuxluver:

 

MikeAqua:

 

I still don't see a net economic benefit in EVs when you look at the extra purchase price.  Whenever I run the maths the purchase premium needs to be about half what it is. 

 

 

This is exactly why there need to be purchase  support measures. 

If this was just about technology it wouldn't be a problem. 

But this is about keeping large parts of Nelson, Dunedin, Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington in NZ....and hundreds of other cities elsewhere ..... from disappearing under the waves. They don't need to underwater. They just need to be flooded heavily every 5 years to be unlivable. 

There needs to be a lot more urgency around reducing emissions.......because what we have *already* released is *already* making things a lot warmer....and very quickly. 

 

 

But:

 

1 - reducing emissions in NZ has no direct effect on reducing sea level rises in these places

 

2 - even disregarding 1, nobody has yet shown on this thread that subsidising relatively affluent people to drive EVs is the best way of spending taxpayers' money to reduce emissions

 

3 - similarly, nobody has shown that spending money to reduce emissions is more cost effective than spending money to mitigate the effects of any possible sea level rises,  And this is especially important given 1 above

 

I'm not saying these things (2 & 3) can't be proven - I have an open mind and welcome some numbers being provided.  But until then, I disagree with my tax $$ being spent to make your EV cheaper


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1950279 1-Feb-2018 19:36
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The barriers to EV adoption are reducing day by day. This video should help dispel some myths: https://youtu.be/9k7k3Mzknm8 

 

ICEV manufactures retool periodically (say once a decade) so retooling for from ICE to EV won't be a big deal for them. The barrier is design. Presently EV are new tech and because they are still evolving quickly (think about it - they announce the improved spec's of the 2019 Leaf before they even sold the first 2018 Leaf!!!). It isn't financial for the mass marked manufactures to put a stake in the ground and start production - your shiny new factory will be obsolete before it is finished (hence Tesla started manufacturing for the end of the market where cool, fast and iconic trumps obsolescence). That isn't to say there is no future in EV's - quite to opposite - they're just getting better too fast. Consequently EV's are presently expensive and more of a principled investment than a financial investment.

 

Once the evolution and development phase of EV slows down, EV's are expected to be cheaper than ICE to mass manufacture (once batteries come down in price, and the price is tumbling) because they are way simpler to manufacture due to having a fraction of the moving parts. You won't have to convince anyone to buy them - the price tag will be all the convincing people need.

 

ICE evolution and investment has slowed to glacial - as proven by diesel-gate - they just can't get much more out of the ICE, and there isn't much point investing much more in it, hence volvo etc have announced their ICE exit strategies. Infinitely variable valve timing, the last holy grail of ICE, has been conquered by Koenigsegg.  https://youtu.be/S3cFfM3r510 - very very cool for petrol heads, but pretty much the last big development opportunity left for ICE.


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  Reply # 1950288 1-Feb-2018 19:47
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shk292:

 

But until then, I disagree with my tax $$ being spent to make your EV cheaper

 

 

 

 

Luckily, not everyone has that attitude or they might disagree with their tax $$ being spent to put up defenses against rising sea levels in someone else's town. With that said, the evidence is very clear. 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is real, and we are causing it. If you went to 100 doctors, and 97 of them said 'You have cancer and will be dead next week without surgery tomorrow,' but 3 said 'You've got the flu,' would you just go home and lie down?





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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1950291 1-Feb-2018 19:49
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shk292:

 

1 - reducing emissions in NZ has no direct effect on reducing sea level rises in these places

 

 

This is a true, but poorly understood fact. LINK  

 

In a nut shell it isn't the water from melted ice "filling up" the ocean that causes sea level rises, it is the loss of the gravitational mass at the poles that is presently pulling water away from the equator and toward the poles that is the problem. In layman's terms, already existing seawater will move from the poles to the equator. Places in between like NZ won't see large sea level changes.


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  Reply # 1950293 1-Feb-2018 19:59
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SaltyNZ:

 

Luckily, not everyone has that attitude or they might disagree with their tax $$ being spent to put up defenses against rising sea levels in someone else's town. With that said, the evidence is very clear. 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is real, and we are causing it. If you went to 100 doctors, and 97 of them said 'You have cancer and will be dead next week without surgery tomorrow,' but 3 said 'You've got the flu,' would you just go home and lie down?

 

 

Try reading my post

 

Nowhere do I argue that CC isn't real - that is a completely separate argument and best left out of this thread.

 

It's telling that none of the EV advocates have raised a single argument, fact or figure to attempt to answer my points.


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  Reply # 1950300 1-Feb-2018 20:22
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Linuxluver:

 

The incumbents won't change unless forced to. It's that simple.  

 

 

Ugh, "forced".

 

These are privately owned businesses. Governments shouldn't be forcing them to do anything. Governments are run by politicians - they're the last people who should be dictating decisions to private businesses.

 

It's far from simple. What will work is when some manufacturer comes up with an electric car that more people want. When oen does, they will become very rich. But they can't be forced to do that anymore than you can force a horse to drink.

 

 


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  Reply # 1950301 1-Feb-2018 20:23
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tripper1000:

 

Infinitely variable valve timing, the last holy grail of ICE, has been conquered by Koenigsegg.  https://youtu.be/S3cFfM3r510 - very very cool for petrol heads, but pretty much the last big development opportunity left for ICE.

 

 

That was a very interesting video. Thanks for sharing it.


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1950306 1-Feb-2018 20:29
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Linuxluver:

 

MikeAqua:

 

I still don't see a net economic benefit in EVs when you look at the extra purchase price.  Whenever I run the maths the purchase premium needs to be about half what it is. 

 

 

This is exactly why there need to be purchase  support measures. 

If this was just about technology it wouldn't be a problem. 

But this is about keeping large parts of Nelson, Dunedin, Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington in NZ....and hundreds of other cities elsewhere ..... from disappearing under the waves. They don't need to underwater. They just need to be flooded heavily every 5 years to be unlivable. 

There needs to be a lot more urgency around reducing emissions.......because what we have *already* released is *already* making things a lot warmer....and very quickly. 

 

 

http://aada.asn.au/why-aussie-buyers-arent-switching-to-evs-and-hybrids/

 

In the above article about why Aussie buyers aren't switching to EVs and hybrids, it suggests that Government support and incentives are the key to the realisation of electric vehicle success in Australia. If that's the case in Australia, I think it's also very much the case in NZ! You only have to look at why EVs have been so successful in taking off in Norway to realise that we could do so much more in NZ if the prices could come down.

 

Having said that, it's reported on Facebook that a 2018 Nissan Leaf has been sold by EV Central. It was listed for about $65,000, so at least some people are prepared to dig deep to buy EVs.

 

 

 

 


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1950308 1-Feb-2018 20:32
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shk292:

 

It's telling that none of the EV advocates have raised a single argument, fact or figure to attempt to answer my points.

 

 

Hmmm, OK, on this point:

 

shk292:

 

But until then, I disagree with my tax $$ being spent to make your EV cheaper

 

 

It would be YOUR tax dollars making YOUR EV cheaper.

 

Don't forget, your tax dollars were your wage dollars before they were IRD's tax dollars. Wouldn't you like to be able to spend some more of YOUR money on YOUR car?

 

In the past we (NZ) spend YOUR (well, your grand-dad's) tax dollars building dams, the national grid, the national highway system, the railways, ports and telephone systems, and I think we're all better for it.


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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 1950320 1-Feb-2018 20:38
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shk292:



2 - even disregarding 1, nobody has yet shown on this thread that subsidising relatively affluent people to drive EVs is the best way of spending taxpayers' money to reduce emissions




I think that you lack an understanding of the purpose of encouraging people to buy electric cars.

There is a need to boost electric vehicle ownership so that money will be spent on infrastructure. We also need the affluent to buy new EVs now so that others can buy 2nd hand EVs tomorrow.

It is vital that we join the EV revolution so we don't get left behind. There are also some significant benefits to NZ for changing to EVs, including not being reliant on imported fuel when we make electricity domestically.

Sorry to have not addressed at least one of your points earlier but it isn't as easy posting with my phone and there is a fierce wind pushing the sides of my tent in.

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  Reply # 1950324 1-Feb-2018 20:40
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tripper1000:

 

shk292:

 

It's telling that none of the EV advocates have raised a single argument, fact or figure to attempt to answer my points.

 

 

Hmmm, OK, on this point:

 

shk292:

 

But until then, I disagree with my tax $$ being spent to make your EV cheaper

 

 

It would be YOUR tax dollars making YOUR EV cheaper.

 

Don't forget, your tax dollars were your wage dollars before they were IRD's tax dollars. Wouldn't you like to be able to spend some more of YOUR money on YOUR car?

 

In the past we (NZ) spend YOUR (well, your grand-dad's) tax dollars building dams, the national grid, the national highway system, the railways, ports and telephone systems, and I think we're all better for it.

 

 

No no no. EVs like any car, are expensive luxuries when new. If you subsidise them it means working class people are subsidising flash cars for the rich.

 

Like Tesla in the USA. $100k+ cars being subsidised for the rich who buy them by the working class taxpayer. It's insane. Subsidising them *reduces* incentives to produce then cheaply and suports producing them inefficiently.

 

 


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  Reply # 1950326 1-Feb-2018 20:41
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tripper1000:

 

shk292:

 

It's telling that none of the EV advocates have raised a single argument, fact or figure to attempt to answer my points.

 

 

Hmmm, OK, on this point:

 

shk292:

 

But until then, I disagree with my tax $$ being spent to make your EV cheaper

 

 

It would be YOUR tax dollars making YOUR EV cheaper.

 

Don't forget, your tax dollars were your wage dollars before they were IRD's tax dollars. Wouldn't you like to be able to spend some more of YOUR money on YOUR car?

 

In the past we (NZ) spend YOUR (well, your grand-dad's) tax dollars building dams, the national grid, the national highway system, the railways, ports and telephone systems, and I think we're all better for it.

 

 

So, convince me the numbers stack up

 

I have no problem with paying taxes and that money being spent by the govt (partly because I'm a government servant).

 

But if we have $$ to spend on CC, are we better trying to reduce it or mitigate its effects?

 

And if it's the former, is the subsidy of EVs the best, or even a good way to spend the money?  How about a scrappage scheme for old, thirsty cars - how would that stack up against EVs?  Or electrifying the Northern busway?  Or "virtual trams"?  Or subsidising house insulation?

 

Yes, EVs are neat technology and I will probably buy one as a 2nd/3rd car in the next 3-4 years.  But I don't expect taxpayers, most of whom have less disposable cash than me, to subsidise this choice unless it can be shown that it is the best bang for $ in terms of CC expenditure


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