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282 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1952821 7-Feb-2018 10:31
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The only financial advantage to locally produced cars would be saving on shipping costs. Literally every other thing would be more expensive. If you subsidised it the money would have to come from somewhere, and if you print money you raise inflation and rob everyone slowly.

The goal is to lower emissions, so let’s concentrate on that. If the government isn’t providing a purchase subsidy on EVs they need to support them in every other possible way. Special EV lanes, lower insurance, lower rego etc. The equation needs to be changed so that purchasing an EV looks like a good idea to people who DON’T care about climate change.
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4684 posts

Uber Geek


  #1952826 7-Feb-2018 10:40
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Hey, how about we take the EVs are the best bang for our climate buck, or not? over to the general EV thread

 

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=162&topicid=197896

 

While leaving this one for Leaf stuff,

 

and speaking of Leaf stuff, Nissan have confirmed they will sell the leaf 2.0 new in NZ

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/101215523/newgeneration-nissan-leaf-electric-vehicle-coming-to-new-zealand

 

"An announcement that the new second-generation will be launched in Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand was made at an event called Nissan Futures, a gathering in Singapore of industry leaders, government officials and media from across Asia and Oceania."

 

No mention of price or delivery dates,

 

but as we have speculated, $60K has got to be the ballpark given all the other competition clustering around that price point., (E-golf, Ioniq etc)

 

It will be very interesting to see how it goes second time round...

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #1952831 7-Feb-2018 10:49
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The government is doing some of those things, although arguably more could be done. There are some transit lanes that can be used by EVs (none that are useful for me ...) and no RUC for at least the next two years. Not sure about registration as I haven't had to pay that yet. My insurance only went up from ~$120 a year to ~$350 a year despite the increase in insurable value from SFA to the price of a new Leaf, but I'm not sure how much was that was "EV" and how much was "much newer, safer car".





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


524 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1952873 7-Feb-2018 12:08
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I'll be disappointed if Nissan NZ price this solely in the $60k bracket.

 

Along with outright purchase, i'd like to see a battery leasing option as well

 

A) Bring the initial cost of the car down (sub $30k)

 

B) Gets Nissan involved with ongoing battery replacement - this keeps the money rolling, and will also give the owner higher resale value. 

 

C) Allows the latest battery technology to be fitted to older cars to extend ranges, or reduced charging times

 

 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #1952927 7-Feb-2018 13:27
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Sorry, don't think you are going to see Battery Leasing.

 

http://evfleetworld.co.uk/nissan-abandons-battery-lease-for-new-leaf/

 

Personally I would have thought that battery leasing would make resell more difficult - not many people will want to buy a car with a lease stilling on the battery.
Finance with some Balloon payments in 3-5 years might work better - get the car for a low cost and sell it in 3-5 years.


524 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1952935 7-Feb-2018 14:00
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KrazyKid:

 

Sorry, don't think you are going to see Battery Leasing.

 

http://evfleetworld.co.uk/nissan-abandons-battery-lease-for-new-leaf/

 

Personally I would have thought that battery leasing would make resell more difficult - not many people will want to buy a car with a lease stilling on the battery.
Finance with some Balloon payments in 3-5 years might work better - get the car for a low cost and sell it in 3-5 years.

 

 

My understanding was that you give the battery back to Nissan when you sell your car, so you essentially sell the car without a battery.  The new owner then rents their own new or refurbished battery. 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #1953042 7-Feb-2018 15:41
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I don't know the details - but that has not stopped me yet with an opinion :)

 

I suspect in reality that what happened was the lease had to be transferred to the new owner and Nissan never removed a battery pack.
I think it was just to give owners piece of mind when buying the car that the batteries were going to last.

 

I mean what were they going to do with the batteries after the lease.
Buy the car back? What was the owner going to do, keep the useless car shell and return the batteries at end of lease?

 


It would probably be cheaper to do some paperwork and take a small loss than transporting the car to a specialized service center,
get the car into a clean room, spend X hours changing and testing battery packs.
Then having to dispose (sell/dump) the secondhand battery packs.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #1953059 7-Feb-2018 15:57
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I believe the original plan was to sell the expired battery packs as home energy storage for (e.g.) solar systems at a reduced rated capacity. Tesla does the same, IIRC. As a stationary application, the fact that you need more of them for the same capacity is less of an issue. At some point the volume of older batteries in circulation will make recycling a viable proposition, although to be honest I'm surprised it isn't already, given the number of small lithium batteries already out there.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


5751 posts

Uber Geek


  #1953139 7-Feb-2018 17:14
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Fred99:

 

Generous subsidies of course possible in Norway - where they earn masses of revenue from being one of the world's largest exporters of oil, gas, and condensate.  At least when they catch whales, they eat them at home.

 

 

Not a subsidy per-se but a tax exemption.

 

Non-EVs are subject to a massive import tax (~$NZ 20k).  This was originally put in place as a trade barrier, to protect Norway's domestic EV industry (now all-but gone).

 

Interesting interview here ...

 

https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/201794693/christina-bu-electric-vehicles-in-norway

 

IMO government subsidies inflate suppliers' profit margins.  They allow manufacturers to increase the price of EVs to the point where the EV price after subsidy is competitive with ICEVs.

 

Better to let the market (Adam Smith's 'invisible hand') exert downward pressure on price.

 

 

 

 

 

 





Mike

1204 posts

Uber Geek


  #1953490 8-Feb-2018 09:30
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MikeAqua:

 

....... IMO government subsidies inflate suppliers' profit margins.  They allow manufacturers to increase the price of EVs to the point where the EV price after subsidy is competitive with ICEVs.

 

Better to let the market (Adam Smith's 'invisible hand') exert downward pressure on price.

 

 

it is easy to see that this is not the case with EV's - Leaf's in countries with a govt subsidy are cheaper than countries without so Nissan is either ripping everyone one off equally or buyers really are pocketing the subsidies.

 

The subsidy on Leaf's and other EV's overseas is not going to be enduring - it is a simply mechanism to kick-start the market, and once the market is establish firmly enough, the subsidies will fade out.  In order to create a market and get things started, some one at some point has to show some faith and invest some cash - that someone right now is foreign governments. The 'invisible hand' is an after effect and is irrelevant early on since it has little to no effect on a market that does not yet exist.

 

Once EV's achieve ICE type volumes of mass production, EV will naturally undercut ICE as electric propulsion has far fewer moving parts and is simpler to mass manufacture. The motoring public will be the winners, but someone at some point has to create some change inertia - hence, subsidies.


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Uber Geek


  #1953506 8-Feb-2018 10:08
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tripper1000:

 

it is easy to see that this is not the case with EV's - Leaf's in countries with a govt subsidy are cheaper than countries without so Nissan is either ripping everyone one off equally or buyers really are pocketing the subsidies.

 

 

It's the manufacturers or distributors who are pocketing subsidies if EVs have a cheaper net purchase price in jurisdictions with subsidies.  They are effectively getting paid twice.  Once by the consumer, once by whatever agency is paying the subsidy. 

 

If they sell the EV at the same net price as a comparable ICE (e.g Leaf vs Tida) the purchaser is happy, although other tax payers may not be.

 

I also fundamentally oppose business subsidies, other than for R&D.  I think a product should stand/fall on it's own merits, that puts the acid on manufacturers to improve the technology and reduce the price.  It's also economically bonkers to subsidise imports.

 

If manufacturers can get grants from their own govts to accelerate their R&D programmes that seems a sensible way to 'subsidise' the EV sector.  Also allows the countries who will profit most from EVs to fund the ongoing development of the technology.

 

I do agree with your point about volume and cost.  But at the moment subsidies shelter manufacturer from economies of scale and allow them to delay volumising and keep on selling ICEs which continue to have wider market appeal.

 

BTW I exclude Tesla from my cynicism about EV manufacturers, I'm sure they would love to be churning them out cheap in volume.

 

 

 

 





Mike

282 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1953513 8-Feb-2018 10:16
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MikeAqua:

 

If they sell the EV at the same net price as a comparable ICE (e.g Leaf vs Tida) the purchaser is happy, although other tax payers may not be.

 

 

Having driven a Nissan Tilda and a Nissan Leaf, this comparison strikes me as wrong.  A Tilda is a completely inferior car, in build, size, interior, electronics and power.  I'm not sure what the equivalent petrol car is but its definitely not a Tilda.

 

*edit* Many sites seem to compare the LEAF to the Nissan Juke, which does seem to be a Leaf with bigger wheels. 

 

 


282 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1953533 8-Feb-2018 10:52
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MikeAqua:

 

I do agree with your point about volume and cost.  But at the moment subsidies shelter manufacturer from economies of scale and allow them to delay volumising and keep on selling ICEs which continue to have wider market appeal.

 

BTW I exclude Tesla from my cynicism about EV manufacturers, I'm sure they would love to be churning them out cheap in volume.

 

 

I guess the fundamental disagreement here is in viewpoint:  

 

1. Manufacturers are milking governments for subsidies and delaying EV mass production to keep on the gravy train.

 

2. EVs are expensive to manufacture and subsidies are required to help the very costly transition to EV/battery production.

 

Governments believe (2) that subsidies are enabling manufacturers to produce EV's at a small loss instead of a huge loss.  The manufacturers are trying to make money today for their shareholders and also to invest in the future (which they believe will be EV) without losing their shirts or jobs.  The current strategy is to make a few EV's and finance that loss with profits from pricey petrol cars (like the Nissan Juke, which is a basically a LEAF with a petrol engine and must be much more profitable than a LEAF).

 

I would add that companies that are publicly traded *cannot* lose significant amounts of money (unless they are as sexy as Amazon 10 years ago), as they have a fiduciary duty to their investors *right now*.  They can't take a loss for the next few years to produce EV's in volume because the share price would fall and the board would rip those plans apart.  Thats even assuming they could produce EV's in volume, which is not as simple as producing ICE. Batteries are complex and even Nissan has abandoned battery manufacturing in favour of buying Korean LG cells.  And they tried, and invested billions in battery manufacturing - and failed.

 

 


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Uber Geek


  #1953538 8-Feb-2018 11:02
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happyfunball:

 

MikeAqua:

 

If they sell the EV at the same net price as a comparable ICE (e.g Leaf vs Tida) the purchaser is happy, although other tax payers may not be.

 

 

Having driven a Nissan Tilda and a Nissan Leaf, this comparison strikes me as wrong.  A Tilda is a completely inferior car, in build, size, interior, electronics and power.  I'm not sure what the equivalent petrol car is but its definitely not a Tilda.

 

*edit* Many sites seem to compare the LEAF to the Nissan Juke, which does seem to be a Leaf with bigger wheels. 

 

 

Both shopping basket or commute cars.

 

The Juke also comes in AWD.





Mike

282 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1953549 8-Feb-2018 11:14
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MikeAqua:

 

Both shopping basket or commute cars.

 

The Juke also comes in AWD.

 

 

Yes AWD is very handy when shopping no doubt :)  But I bet people buy those things!

 

The Juke is 40K new.  A 2014 Juke goes for 18K.  A 2014 LEAF goes for about 20K.


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