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4641 posts

Uber Geek


  #1953551 8-Feb-2018 11:22
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happyfunball:

 

The Juke is 40K new.  A 2014 Juke goes for 18K.  A 2014 LEAF goes for about 20K.

 

 

although the 2014 leaf would have been around 50-60K new, (in a market where it was sold)


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  #1953552 8-Feb-2018 11:23
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happyfunball:

 

I guess the fundamental disagreement here is in viewpoint:  

 

1. Manufacturers are milking governments for subsidies and delaying EV mass production to keep on the gravy train.

 

2. EVs are expensive to manufacture and subsidies are required to help the very costly transition to EV/battery production.

 

Governments believe (2) that subsidies are enabling manufacturers to produce EV's at a small loss instead of a huge loss.  The manufacturers are trying to make money today for their shareholders and also to invest in the future (which they believe will be EV) without losing their shirts or jobs.  The current strategy is to make a few EV's and finance that loss with profits from pricey petrol cars (like the Nissan Juke, which is a basically a LEAF with a petrol engine and must be much more profitable than a LEAF).

 

 

Governments always fall for (2).  This country (easiest place in the world to farm) used to subsidise farming ...

 

The way I see it is govt subsidies support continuing inefficiency which would otherwise have to be resolved by lower price, better technology, and scale of production.

 

I want EVs to perform better (range and speed) and be cheaper to buy than ICEs so I can afford one (or two) that I will actually enjoy owning.

 

Publicly listed companies can run at a loss, burning investors cash provided they remain solvent.  Lots of tech firms start out this way.  The market will support the share price if the company is seen to have good long term prospects.

 

Setting that aside, the modest volumes of EVs that ICE manufacturers are producing will hardly break the bank.  I believe I read recently that Nissan has sold just 300,000 Leaves in 8 years for example?  To put that into perspective in the US alone Nissan sell >100,000 cars per month. 

 

 

 

 





Mike

 
 
 
 


282 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #1953594 8-Feb-2018 12:39
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MikeAqua:

 

happyfunball:

 

I guess the fundamental disagreement here is in viewpoint:  

 

1. Manufacturers are milking governments for subsidies and delaying EV mass production to keep on the gravy train.

 

2. EVs are expensive to manufacture and subsidies are required to help the very costly transition to EV/battery production.

 

Governments believe (2) that subsidies are enabling manufacturers to produce EV's at a small loss instead of a huge loss.  The manufacturers are trying to make money today for their shareholders and also to invest in the future (which they believe will be EV) without losing their shirts or jobs.  The current strategy is to make a few EV's and finance that loss with profits from pricey petrol cars (like the Nissan Juke, which is a basically a LEAF with a petrol engine and must be much more profitable than a LEAF).

 

 

Publicly listed companies can run at a loss, burning investors cash provided they remain solvent.  Lots of tech firms start out this way.  The market will support the share price if the company is seen to have good long term prospects.

 

Setting that aside, the modest volumes of EVs that ICE manufacturers are producing will hardly break the bank.  I believe I read recently that Nissan has sold just 300,000 Leaves in 8 years for example?  To put that into perspective in the US alone Nissan sell >100,000 cars per month. 

 

 

Agreed, eventually the market would make EV's cheaper and everyone would convert to EVs.  But that could be 20+ years away without the huge amount of money spent on battery research by government, subsidised universities, and subsidised car manufacturers.  The EV race is on and there never has been more interest or money floating around for battery research and tech.

 

It must be a very good time to be a battery tech researcher :) 

 

 




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  #1953678 8-Feb-2018 15:02
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wellygary:

 

.....and speaking of Leaf stuff, Nissan have confirmed they will sell the leaf 2.0 new in NZ

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/101215523/newgeneration-nissan-leaf-electric-vehicle-coming-to-new-zealand

 

"An announcement that the new second-generation will be launched in Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand was made at an event called Nissan Futures, a gathering in Singapore of industry leaders, government officials and media from across Asia and Oceania."

 

No mention of price or delivery dates,

 

but as we have speculated, $60K has got to be the ballpark given all the other competition clustering around that price point., (E-golf, Ioniq etc)

 

It will be very interesting to see how it goes second time round...

 



The article also mentions incentives. I could see a willing government helping out. 

The last one spent $8 billion dollars helping out the trucking industry....

Maybe a tiny fraction of that could now go toward reducing emissions. 





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5725 posts

Uber Geek


  #1953691 8-Feb-2018 15:31
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happyfunball:

 

Agreed, eventually the market would make EV's cheaper and everyone would convert to EVs.  But that could be 20+ years away without the huge amount of money spent on battery research by government, subsidised universities, and subsidised car manufacturers.  The EV race is on and there never has been more interest or money floating around for battery research and tech.

 

It must be a very good time to be a battery tech researcher :) 

 

 

I'm all for R&D subsidies by govts - they are pretty much accepted as beneficial worldwide. The only potential downside is that governments through their buying power can skew the types of R&D capability and capacity developed.  But that is also generally seen as appropriate where governments are strategic about it

 

If the NZ govt wanted to support research into EV tech within NZ, I would support that too.

 

I'll be interested to see where the battery tech caps out, given the theoretical enthalpy limits of the underlying reactions.

 

Charge speed will be an important part of the equation too, especially for vehicles hauling serious loads.





Mike

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  #1953693 8-Feb-2018 15:36
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MikeAqua:

 

I'll be interested to see where the battery tech caps out, given the theoretical enthalpy limits of the underlying reactions.

 

Charge speed will be an important part of the equation too, especially for vehicles hauling serious loads.

 

 

 

 

Well, there are plenty of things to research. Practical hydrogen production, storage, and fuel cells. Flow batteries. Both of those would be good options for large vehicles. In the meantime why allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good?





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


5725 posts

Uber Geek


  #1953695 8-Feb-2018 15:39
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Linuxluver:

 

The last one spent $8 billion dollars helping out the trucking industry....

 

They spent that on roads, which everyone can use - including EV owners.  And unlike free-loading EV owners, trucking companies actually pay to use roads.





Mike

 
 
 
 


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Ultimate Geek


  #1953705 8-Feb-2018 15:56
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MikeAqua:

 

They spent that on roads, which everyone can use - including EV owners.  And unlike free-loading EV owners, trucking companies actually pay to use roads.

 

 

Yes and they would love EV trucks.  Cut fuel costs and maintenance?  No brainer.

 

I think the case for EV trucks is actually stronger than that of cars.  In 5 years we'll see them everywhere.


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  #1953724 8-Feb-2018 16:32
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Can we move talk about ev roading to general ev thread rather than Nisan leaf.

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Ultimate Geek


  #1955806 12-Feb-2018 15:27
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Very interesting reading, if you thinking about buying a leaf in NZ.

 

http://flipthefleet.org/resources/benchmark-your-leaf-before-buying/

 

 


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  #1955810 12-Feb-2018 15:37
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moved comment to general EV thread.





Mike

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  #1956074 13-Feb-2018 00:07
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langi27:

 

Very interesting reading, if you thinking about buying a leaf in NZ.

 

http://flipthefleet.org/resources/benchmark-your-leaf-before-buying/

 

 

In an idle moment (or 3), I digitised the graph at the bottom of the Leaf benchmark page and calculated a correlation coefficient (Spearman's rho because wanted to avoid assumption of normally distributed data) for the relationship between SoH and odometer for the data as a whole. Spearman's rho = -0.57 i.e. in lay terms 32% of the SoH can be explained by the odometer. I'm no car scientist but 1/3 is a pretty decent chunk. So I don't find the flipthefleet graph per se very convincing that odo doesn't explain much of SoH, especially given the scatter is magnified by the Y axis that begins at 65%, instead of 0% (see my digitised graph below to contrast).

 

 

However, the relationship will be affected by vehicle age (e.g. the 3 highest odo readings from 2011/12 cars) so would be interesting to tease out more.

 

 


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Ultimate Geek


  #1956192 13-Feb-2018 10:35
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It will take a while for people to get their heads around this.

 

Apart from the general aesthetics (wear and tear of the paint and upholstery),  you wouldn't generally select a newer EV car with poor SoH  over a old EV with excellent SoH. 

 

A well looked after old battery will give you much better life and thus hold its resale value. 


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  #1956206 13-Feb-2018 10:55
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paulchinnz:

 

langi27:

 

Very interesting reading, if you thinking about buying a leaf in NZ.

 

http://flipthefleet.org/resources/benchmark-your-leaf-before-buying/

 

 

So I don't find the flipthefleet graph per se very convincing that odo doesn't explain much of SoH, especially given the scatter is magnified by the Y axis that begins at 65%, instead of 0% (see my digitised graph below to contrast).

 

However, the relationship will be affected by vehicle age (e.g. the 3 highest odo readings from 2011/12 cars) so would be interesting to tease out more.

 

 

I think the graph is good to give you a feeling of what is out there and how your car compares. But I do feel the odo is a factor

 

Generally speaking it seems to me a high odo reading will have a significant correlation to recharges - the more you drive the more you have to recharge

 

Instinctively I feel significant factors in battery SoH will be

 

1) Age of the battery (battery will degrade in health over time just sitting about - I read its 7%/5/3/2/2/2 for the first 6 years - no idea if these numbers are correct but you get the point.)

 


2) Number of recharges - as I said high odo reading will have a significant correlation to recharges - the more you drive the more you have to recharge, but terrain and people habits are also significant factors in how often a recharge happens

 


3) Changes in battery tech. Leaf batteries changed to the lizard batteries (in 2013/4?) - were there other undocumented minor changes to battery tech? This means 2011/12 cars are different to 2016 cars in battery plus a whole host of other minor changes between Gen 1 & Gen 2

 

 

 

 


3885 posts

Uber Geek


  #1956274 13-Feb-2018 11:47
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The number of fast charges via slow charges also makes a difference by my understanding. It is better to slow charge, unless you actually need to quickly charge. Mainly as the batteries don't heat up much when slow charging.





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