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  Reply # 1998366 18-Apr-2018 10:36
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tripper1000:

 

FireEngine: Did you look at the graphs in the report? In a couple of years (ie around the 4yr mark), the 30kwh is likely to decay to some 40% SoH - half of what Nissan predict at the 5yr point. Thats not going to be fixed by a fine-tuning of the indicator IMHO.

 

Yeah, I did, and I noted that they didn't relate decay or SoH to KM's, or the rate of being driven (unless I missed a graph?). A few things about the report that struck me were that it was primarily NZ based and therefore is (naturally) on imported vehicles, which it self will causes bias through selection. If you are using the graphs to extrapolate future decay, the way we import and use the cars will artificially stack the results in favour of older cars.

 

I am interested if a Leaf dealer can confirm or deny the follow theory:

 

1) We generally don't bother importing cars with poor battery SOH, so all the older 24 Kw's in NZ are the cream of the crop with better than average batteries, where as the 30kws are so new, not enough time has lapsed pre-import to sort the good from the bad and so both good and bad 30kw's have been imported. The batteries can contain latent conditions that affect their future decline such as variations in manufacture, through to how the previous owner drove and charged them, and weather they came from the milder south of Japan or harsher north of Japan, and weather they were parked out doors or protected in a garage.

 

2) I reckon kiwis use these cars heaps more and heaps harder than the Japanese - we typically import low KM examples and then rapidly pile on the Kms. This (if true) will produce skewed statistics when graphing SoH vs years. Due to averaging out the results, a recently imported 2013 model with lows Kms and good SoH will look a lot better on those graphs than a 2016 30kw with low kms and good SoH even if 10,000kms of use is producing identical decline of SoH in both cars.

 

I don't think I'm barking up the wrong tree. Can you see a flaw in my logic?

 

 

Nissan's expectation of the Leaf is 80% SoH at 5yrs. That looks in line with the 2.4kwh but well adrift on the 30kwh. Unless someone is going to tell me the battery is physically 20% larger in the 30kwh model then the increased capacity <has> to come from a different battery technology with a significantly higher energy density. Simple logic and Occam's razor links the two, no complex usage effects required. I'd also suggest there looks to be enough variation in the 24kwh battery SoH in the data that would contra-indicate a "cream of the crop" selection taking place on the 24kwh models.

 

Users are also reporting real range reductions in line with the reduced reported SoH by the vehicles so in Apollo 13 terminology "its not instrumentation".





Regards FireEngine


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  Reply # 1998379 18-Apr-2018 10:44
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tripper1000:

 

I don't think I'm barking up the wrong tree. Can you see a flaw in my logic?

 

 

 

 

The first flaw is that this study is indeed NZ based, looking at cars driven under NZ conditions. In many other markets, cars or batteries are leased on typically 3 year terms, so they don't stay in anyone's hands long enough for an accelerated battery decay issue to necessarily be noticed by their owners. But that does not mean that there is no problem.

 

The second flaw is that the data so far supports the theory that most if not all 30kWh cars are affected to some extent, not that there are a handful of bad 30kWh cars throwing off the average.

 

The real issue here is that we don't so much care about a number that the battery computer calculates using magic, but more - as you point out - whether or not that magic number actually affects your range. That's very difficult to measure in practice as you never drive your car from full charge to turtle mode just to see how far you can get, on account of that requiring a tow truck to rescue you from unlike running out of petrol would. With that in mind, SoH is the best proxy we have.

 

But: the whole point of calculating SoH is that you are supposed to be able to use it as a proxy, so if you can't that's a problem in itself.





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  Reply # 1998472 18-Apr-2018 12:00
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tripper1000:

 

I don't think I'm barking up the wrong tree. Can you see a flaw in my logic?

 

 

One prominent flaw is that you are *expecting* batteries to decline with odometer usage, when this has been shown not to be a prominent factor here, or overseas, of battery degradation.  Batteries primarily degrade with time not distance driven.  Heat is also a factor, which Nissan has acknowledged, and charge level was suspected, but has since been downplayed by Nissan as a major factor.  The BMS seems to do a good job of keeping the battery health high despite frequent usage.

 

So we are left with age and heat as the big factors and probably lots of other factors as well to a much lesser extent.

 

Anecdotally the 30kwh cars were not lasting as long as 24kwh cars before the FTF study came out, according to the US forums.  Many owners of 24kwh models upgraded when their lease came up, and noticed their new Leaf wasn't lasting as long.  There are a few drivers of Leafs who do a lot of logging and blogging, and thats the conclusion they came to.  These opinions, which is all they were, seem to perfectly align with the FTF study.

 

Incidentally, range was affected according to the US forums, and there is no reason to believe that reported battery health is unrelated to vehicle range.  

 

It certainly would be interesting to do range tests on cars to see if SOH affects it, and to my knowledge, those who have tried to measure energy output of the Leaf battery report that the SOH seems to be accurate.  I heard that from Kapti Cars which was doing some testing in this area around 30kwh cars with batteries displaying accelerated decline.  They were hoping to show that the BMS was inaccurate, but instead they concluded that its the real deal.  The batteries are just fading much faster than expected. It was not in their interest to come to that conclusion as they sold quite a few 30kwh cars, but thats what they concluded.

 

So lots of different indicators pointing to the same conclusion: rapidly degrading batteries.

 

I would add that if it looks like a bad battery, has the range of a bad battery, has published studies about its bad battery and there are many forum posts out there about the bad battery, its a BAD BATTERY.

 

 

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1998486 18-Apr-2018 12:19
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I guess the real test is 'would you buy one, knowing what you know'. 

 

I'm trying to figure out if I can get a 24 KWH Leaf with 11/12 bars out of Japan for cheap. Not even bothering with the 30s. 

 

Can anyone here tell if the Aero styling makes any difference to open road performance?


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  Reply # 1998503 18-Apr-2018 12:45
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FireEngine:

 

Nissan's expectation of the Leaf is 80% SoH at 5yrs.

 

 

Right. But what does that really mean? Surely they don't expect 100% of cars to meet that target, given variation in manufacture and usage. Do they expect 95% to get there? Or 50%? Do they intend to replace under warranty all those that don't make it?

 

 


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  Reply # 1998618 18-Apr-2018 14:33
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frankv:

 

FireEngine:

 

Nissan's expectation of the Leaf is 80% SoH at 5yrs.

 

 

Right. But what does that really mean? Surely they don't expect 100% of cars to meet that target, given variation in manufacture and usage. Do they expect 95% to get there? Or 50%? Do they intend to replace under warranty all those that don't make it?

 

 

 

 

I would expect it to be a warranty issue. This is the same with (just for eg), Apple MacBooks, if your battery declines below 80% within the warranty period, its replaced. That is a sensible way to deal with a warranty on an item that is expected to decline in function over its life. The manufacturer sets a floor on performance and exercises the warranty on those that fall under the floor.

 

In this case I'd expect it to heavily impact residual values and hence lease costs - in time I'd expect a 30kwh recall on the batteries <IF> and <WHEN> Nissan actually get to the bottom of why the performance degrades and can resolve it in new manufacture. No manufacturer wants to "do a Samsung" and issue a battery recall but replace with batteries that still have a problem, that just pumps their costs up.

 

As I said earlier, the 30kwh must represent a difference in technology over the 24kwh to achieve the higher energy density, I'm sure they'll find a way to tighten up production to the performance levels of the prototype and pre-production batteries they will have used for testing, when they have that nailed I'd expect a recall (which will likely be at the battery supplier's cost).





Regards FireEngine


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  Reply # 1998641 18-Apr-2018 15:10
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frankv:

 

FireEngine:

 

Nissan's expectation of the Leaf is 80% SoH at 5yrs.

 

 

Right. But what does that really mean? Surely they don't expect 100% of cars to meet that target, given variation in manufacture and usage. Do they expect 95% to get there? Or 50%? Do they intend to replace under warranty all those that don't make it?

 

 

 

 

Nissan's warranty statement is for below 9 bars of 12 (so in theory closer to 67% at the point the 9th bar turns off) capacity for 5yrs or 60,000miles, whichever comes first.

 

Interestingly the info I have seen explains that the warranty coverage will be to return a deficient (ie below 9 bars) battery to 9 bars, there is specifically a warning that it is <not> to return it to as-new 12bars/100%.

 

That ties in with their expectation of 80% (so they don't have a warranty claim).





Regards FireEngine


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  Reply # 1998708 18-Apr-2018 15:56
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FireEngine:

 

Interestingly the info I have seen explains that the warranty coverage will be to return a deficient (ie below 9 bars) battery to 9 bars, there is specifically a warning that it is <not> to return it to as-new 12bars/100%.

 

 

Nissan in the US has replaced batteries that drop below 9 bars with new batteries.  

 

Replacing a battery pack with a new one is pretty straight forward.  About 2 hours labour.

 

To get a bad battery (< 9 bars) back up to 9 bars, would make no sense.  That would take longer since it would involve cracking open the battery system and replacing individual cells, and it also might cause the battery to drop below 9 bars again in the future, causing another warranty claim.  There is no limit to the number of warranty claims within the warranty period.

 

So in practice, the battery warranty means replacing the battery with a new, 12 bar battery.

 

 


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  Reply # 1998720 18-Apr-2018 16:10
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happyfunball:

 

FireEngine:

 

Interestingly the info I have seen explains that the warranty coverage will be to return a deficient (ie below 9 bars) battery to 9 bars, there is specifically a warning that it is <not> to return it to as-new 12bars/100%.

 

 

Nissan in the US has replaced batteries that drop below 9 bars with new batteries.  

 

Replacing a battery pack with a new one is pretty straight forward.  About 2 hours labour.

 

To get a bad battery (< 9 bars) back up to 9 bars, would make no sense.  That would take longer since it would involve cracking open the battery system and replacing individual cells, and it also might cause the battery to drop below 9 bars again in the future, causing another warranty claim.  There is no limit to the number of warranty claims within the warranty period.

 

So in practice, the battery warranty means replacing the battery with a new, 12 bar battery.

 

 

 

 

It may well but I didn't write their wording, you can see it here. They may have quite a complex algorithm for determining what to replace depending on the level of health, components suspect and remaining warranty period. They also specifically include remanufactured vs new. Basically as written you aren't entitled to a new battery. On paper from their replacement battery program it looks to cost them $5500 plus fitting so you can see why they have left their options open.

 

https://owners.nissanusa.com/content/techpub/ManualsAndGuides/LEAF/2017/2017-LEAF-warranty-booklet.pdf

 

That doesn't mean they won't go above and beyond in the interests of not knocking a new technology off the rails though, but that doesn't alter the warranty terms.





Regards FireEngine


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  Reply # 1998761 18-Apr-2018 16:40
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FireEngine:

 

It may well but I didn't write their wording, you can see it here. They may have quite a complex algorithm for determining what to replace depending on the level of health, components suspect and remaining warranty period. They also specifically include remanufactured vs new. Basically as written you aren't entitled to a new battery. On paper from their replacement battery program it looks to cost them $5500 plus fitting so you can see why they have left their options open.

 

https://owners.nissanusa.com/content/techpub/ManualsAndGuides/LEAF/2017/2017-LEAF-warranty-booklet.pdf

 

That doesn't mean they won't go above and beyond in the interests of not knocking a new technology off the rails though, but that doesn't alter the warranty terms.

 

 

Yes exactly, they theoretically could just give you a slightly better battery and thus honour the terms of the warranty, but because of various other factors haven't done that up to now.  The refurb program they have in Japan now might be what they fall back on in time instead of giving out new batteries, especially since they are no longer making the batteries themselves but are buying them from LG Chem for 40kwh models.  Those rebuilt batteries could be inferior to a new one, but I haven't read of any comparisons yet. 

 

 

 

 


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  Reply # 1999050 19-Apr-2018 07:57
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To be fair to Nissan (which at the moment, given their f***-you attitude to New Zealand, I do only grudgingly) warranty only implies remedying a defect. Although I personally would *want* a brand new battery, I couldn't reasonably *expect* one.

 

Most likely the earlier replacements were new batteries mainly because of the effort involved in fixing them rather than replacing them with new mass-produced items. But as the refurb lines get up to speed I would certainly expect to see those become more common as warranty replacements.

 

In the case of my car, if I were to find out that I could have my battery fixed back up to where it 'should' be, so I still get my ~5 years to 80% out of it, I would be happy. That's what I expected to get. A new battery would be a welcome bonus, but I wouldn't be counting on it.





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  Reply # 1999110 19-Apr-2018 09:11
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SaltyNZ:

 

To be fair to Nissan (which at the moment, given their f***-you attitude to New Zealand, I do only grudgingly) warranty only implies remedying a defect. Although I personally would *want* a brand new battery, I couldn't reasonably *expect* one.

 

Most likely the earlier replacements were new batteries mainly because of the effort involved in fixing them rather than replacing them with new mass-produced items. But as the refurb lines get up to speed I would certainly expect to see those become more common as warranty replacements.

 

In the case of my car, if I were to find out that I could have my battery fixed back up to where it 'should' be, so I still get my ~5 years to 80% out of it, I would be happy. That's what I expected to get. A new battery would be a welcome bonus, but I wouldn't be counting on it.

 

 

I know it's easy to say, but if I'd bought a 30 kWh Leaf, I'd try and forget all the chat about fast degrading batteries and just enjoy using the car and be pleased to be doing my bit for the environment.

 

There's no way I'd want to keep an EV for 5 years bearing in mind the huge advances in technology that are taking place. In 2 years' time you'll probably be able to get a second-hand 64 kWh EV with 400km range for a reasonable price.

 

So, I'd be putting aside some money to buy a replacement EV within 2 years and take on the chin whatever financial loss might result from selling the 30kWh Leaf. It's hard to put a price on the experience and enjoyment obtained in owning an EV and early adopters know that there is a risk of high depreciation as the vehicle ages, but this shouldn't stop us buying EVs now.


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  Reply # 1999116 19-Apr-2018 09:16
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frednz:

 

I know it's easy to say, but if I'd bought a 30 kWh Leaf, I'd try and forget all the chat about fast degrading batteries and just enjoy using the car and be pleased to be doing my bit for the environment.

 

There's no way I'd want to keep an EV for 5 years bearing in mind the huge advances in technology that are taking place. In 2 years' time you'll probably be able to get a second-hand 64 kWh EV with 400km range for a reasonable price.

 

So, I'd be putting aside some money to buy a replacement EV within 2 years and take on the chin whatever financial loss might result from selling the 30kWh Leaf. It's hard to put a price on the experience and enjoyment obtained in owning an EV and early adopters know that there is a risk of high depreciation as the vehicle ages, but this shouldn't stop us buying EVs now.

 

 

Sorry but I think that view assumes you can carry whatever the financial hit is when it occurs. Remember the end effect may be users trapped with a car worth much less than they bargained for, being unable to finance either its replacement or repair - and having a vehicle that has a uselessly short range...TBH the fix for the moment is buy the 24kwh model with more predictable technology and hence costs OR negotiate a massive discount on the 30kwh to account for its future depreciation possibility.





Regards FireEngine


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  Reply # 1999178 19-Apr-2018 10:29
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frednz:

 

I know it's easy to say, but if I'd bought a 30 kWh Leaf, I'd try and forget all the chat about fast degrading batteries and just enjoy using the car and be pleased to be doing my bit for the environment.

 

 

 

 

Yep, that's exactly what I'm doing at the moment. Right now, the car does exactly what I need with some capacity to spare.

 

 

 

 

There's no way I'd want to keep an EV for 5 years bearing in mind the huge advances in technology that are taking place. In 2 years' time you'll probably be able to get a second-hand 64 kWh EV with 400km range for a reasonable price.

 

 

 

 

The plan was that in several years time when the batteries got to the point where they were inconvenient for me then we could either trade it for a newer one, or keep it for my wife (who has a commute half the distance) or our son (who by then will probably want access to a car) to use, and get a second EV.

 

If the expected 3-4 years ends up being 1 year then that's not going to work out. No way I can afford a second EV only a year after the first one. They're way too expensive for that - especially if the trade-in is worth bugger all on account of the bad battery.





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  Reply # 2000344 21-Apr-2018 16:22
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happyfunball:

 

..One prominent flaw is that [other people] are *expecting* batteries to decline with odometer usage, .... .....

 

 

Today Leaf which was driving for more than a year in Auckland entered my driveway - over 64000 kms on a dash - still on 12 bars, owner is a Geek (big time) and they have not noticed any degradation...





Toyota / Lexus Hybrid and EV Battery Expert Battery Test & Repair 

 

 


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