Nissan LEAF - General

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#2135650 28-Nov-2018 08:32

MarkH67:

wellygary:

Although a large chunk of that $1K per year is the RUC exemption....which will end at some time (while probably not in 2021, in the long term someone has to pay for the NLTF)

You are clearly talking about VERY low km per year driving. To only save $1K per year WITH RUC exemption would put the driving at well under 10,000kms. I'm saving about $2,500 per year with RUC exemption (between fuel savings and the service & maintenance savings), how much I save after the exemption ends would depend on how much they decide to charge, maybe it will drop to $1,800 per year but it could be a bit more or a bit less. I'm running somewhere around 16,000 km per year.

Different people will have a different idea of what is 'low km'. I personally do 9,000km per year and my back of an envelope calculation shows me hypothetically saving about $500 per year on energy. That takes into account a certain % of charging being done on public stations which incur a per minute fee as well as a per kwh fee.

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#2135661 28-Nov-2018 08:49

True, and we are way at the other end, on track for over 40,000km a year having not only switched my daily commute to the Leaf (because we replaced my old car with it) but also the weekend driving (instead of a Pajero) except for those few times when we need two cars at once. To be honest I think people who have very low annual mileage would be better off with a motorbike than an EV as the upfront cost is much lower (you can get a perfectly serviceable motorway-capable bike for $5K) and you're still making significant emissions savings vs. a car. That said, the Leaf is still cheaper to run than a motorbike.

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jonathan18

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#2135668 28-Nov-2018 09:03

SaltyNZ:

To be honest I think single people who have very low annual mileage would be better off with a motorbike than an EV as the upfront cost is much lower (you can get a perfectly serviceable motorway-capable bike for $5K) and you're still making significant emissions savings vs. a car. That said, the Leaf is still cheaper to run than a motorbike.

I've fixed that above, otherwise the risk is we'll end up with the following. The reality is families can still end up with low annual mileage, and cars are the only viable option there - my wife, who does most of the running around with the kids, has done well under 10k in her Leaf over the past year, despite daily use (and we're happy with the decision to purchase it, even if the upfront purchase cost of doing so didn't make complete financial sense). I'm not sure if she'd had been keen on this approach:

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#2135708 28-Nov-2018 09:32

Oh, I don't know, that dog seems to be enjoying himself.

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#2135746 28-Nov-2018 09:48

SaltyNZ:

Oh, I don't know, that dog seems to be enjoying himself.

My wife's Indian - I don't think she'll be too keen on fulfilling that stereotype!

happyfunball

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#2135801 28-Nov-2018 10:19

If we are talking in a purely financial sense, in terms of cars, nothing in NZ beats driving an old Japanese car. They are cheap to repair, parts are plentiful and the lack of emission testing will ensure they are the cheapest option for many years to come.

Any new car purchase makes no financial sense whatsoever for individuals in NZ.

That said most people buy the best car they can afford taking into account status, comfort, safety and convenience. They are the real target for electric cars, not the penny pinchers.

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#2135802 28-Nov-2018 10:21

Motorbikes come with a totally different risk and practicality profile than cars. I can drive a car to work in my undies if I please. I'd need helmet, leathers etc for a bike, which won't be much use if someone drills me off it.

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#2135808 28-Nov-2018 10:41

Can we get back to Leafs. Talking about RUC motor bikes should be in other threads

alasta

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#2135809 28-Nov-2018 10:46

happyfunball: If we are talking in a purely financial sense, in terms of cars, nothing in NZ beats driving an old Japanese car. They are cheap to repair, parts are plentiful and the lack of emission testing will ensure they are the cheapest option for many years to come.

Any new car purchase makes no financial sense whatsoever for individuals in NZ.

I spent many years working as a financial analyst and I have done some modelling around this. My conclusion has been that old high mileage cars do not make financial sense because the savings in depreciation are more than offset by the higher operating costs.

Generally the cheapest option is a late model second hand car. However, if you keep your car for at least 4 - 5 years then the TCO of a new car is very similar to a second hand car when averaging the depreciation over that longer period of time. This is why I have bought my last couple of vehicles new, and will continue to do so.

Disclaimer : You may or may not agree with the assumptions that I applied to my modelling.

happyfunball

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#2135871 28-Nov-2018 11:58

alasta:

happyfunball: If we are talking in a purely financial sense, in terms of cars, nothing in NZ beats driving an old Japanese car. They are cheap to repair, parts are plentiful and the lack of emission testing will ensure they are the cheapest option for many years to come.

Any new car purchase makes no financial sense whatsoever for individuals in NZ.

I spent many years working as a financial analyst and I have done some modelling around this. My conclusion has been that old high mileage cars do not make financial sense because the savings in depreciation are more than offset by the higher operating costs.

Generally the cheapest option is a late model second hand car. However, if you keep your car for at least 4 - 5 years then the TCO of a new car is very similar to a second hand car when averaging the depreciation over that longer period of time. This is why I have bought my last couple of vehicles new, and will continue to do so.

Disclaimer : You may or may not agree with the assumptions that I applied to my modelling.

Thats very interesting, I respect your analysis, but am surprised since there is considerable depreciation on a late model second hand car. What assumptions did you use?

I would have guessed depreciation trumps maintenance costs. If you purchase an old car, depreciation falls to near zero. Your conclusion also contradicts what I see on the road, a lot of older (> 15 year old) cars. These cars can be reliable if maintained, but will inevitably need maintenance. My experience in NZ is that maintenance of old cars is quite cheap compared to even an annual service for a late model car. I have experience with maintaining cars at the 10 year mark, and thats been progressively more expensive, but very old cars (I mean the 20 year old jalopies you see everywhere) seem to be very cheap to run. The mechanics I've spoken to confirm this. There is little to do on them if you do the minimum WOF stuff, have a simple car (manual transmission with small engine for example) and can pay cash to repair them promptly when needed. If you don't mind topping up the oil (and poisoning the earth) every couple of months you'll be spoiled for choice.

Note, I wouldn't ever want one, because of safety, emissions, comfort, convenience, status etc, but if you want to save money that would be where I would look first.

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#2135963 28-Nov-2018 13:44

happyfunball: If we are talking in a purely financial sense, in terms of cars, nothing in NZ beats driving an old Japanese car. They are cheap to repair, parts are plentiful and the lack of emission testing will ensure they are the cheapest option for many years to come.

I'm thinking the lack of emissions testing will be history by the end of February......if not sooner.

Associate Transport Minister, Julie-Anne Genter, is back from maternity leave and revising the tax regime around vehicles is on the cards either just before Xmas or after Parliament returns next year.

Emitters are likely to be more expensive and non-emitters will likely be easier to buy for people on all incomes. They have said several times that people on low incomes will be benefit the most from EVs in relative terms.....lower cost to run and service them....cleaner for everyone...and also reduce the amount of oil we import.

The detail will be good to see when we can see it. But don't count on being able to run an old, dirty banger for cheap for much longer.

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happyfunball

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#2135965 28-Nov-2018 13:49

Linuxluver:

Emitters are likely to be more expensive and non-emitters will likely be easier to buy for people on all incomes. They have said several times that people on low incomes will be benefit the most from EVs in relative terms.....lower cost to run and service them....cleaner for everyone...and also reduce the amount of oil we import.

The detail will be good to see when we can see it. But don't count on being able to run an old, dirty banger for cheap for much longer.

I get what you are saying, but you need to remember the environment is not the number one priority, even for the green party. The priority is social, low income families. Since they are the ones that drive old clunkers, I can't see an emission testing scheme here (yet), as that will hurt them the most. A new/import vehicle tax on diesel/petrol cars is the most likely. I'd love to be wrong though.

Linuxluver

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#2135977 28-Nov-2018 14:15

happyfunball:

.....

Thats very interesting, I respect your analysis, but am surprised since there is considerable depreciation on a late model second hand car. What assumptions did you use?

I would have guessed depreciation trumps maintenance costs. If you purchase an old car, depreciation falls to near zero. Your conclusion also contradicts what I see on the road, a lot of older (> 15 year old) cars. These cars can be reliable if maintained, but will inevitably need maintenance. My experience in NZ is that maintenance of old cars is quite cheap compared to even an annual service for a late model car. I have experience with maintaining cars at the 10 year mark, and thats been progressively more expensive, but very old cars (I mean the 20 year old jalopies you see everywhere) seem to be very cheap to run. The mechanics I've spoken to confirm this. There is little to do on them if you do the minimum WOF stuff, have a simple car (manual transmission with small engine for example) and can pay cash to repair them promptly when needed. If you don't mind topping up the oil (and poisoning the earth) every couple of months you'll be spoiled for choice.

Note, I wouldn't ever want one, because of safety, emissions, comfort, convenience, status etc, but if you want to save money that would be where I would look first.

No matter what you buy, cars cost a lot of money. My general rule for 20 years was "10 years old and $10,000". I'd tick along in that car for 4-5 year and the first time I got a $1,000 service bill I'd sell it and buy another on the same formula. Annual servicing costs could be quiet low for the occasional year.....and higher in others. By the time I'd sell my 15yo car I'd be lucky to get $3000 for it...and it would have cost me about $4,000 in servicing and tyres.

I've owned older cars. I bought a Morris 1100 that was 20 years old for $1,000. It ran ok-ish for 3 years, but needed constant maintenance. Blown head gasket. New muffler. Belts replaced. So it was a case of cheap to buy, but the thing constantly wanted money spent on it. I bought another one but that one only lasted 6 months and I sent it to the wreckers.

The best thing seems to be to buy new at around the $20k mark. You'll get a decent, small, efficient car with years of service and warranty cover....and all the latest mod cons they put into new, but cheaper cars. Depreciation? That depends on what the rest of the market is doing.

I think we're going electric fast enough and soon enough I wouldn't want to buy a petrol-guzzler new now. It will be almost worthless in 5 years and the tax on it is likely to significant.

I drive a Nissan LEAF. It's just reached 3 years old. The 30kWh battery is 91% SoH. It has just under 84,000km on it. It's price seems to actually be going up at the moment as good EVs of this standard in this price range are not easily come by just at the moment. That will change....and I need to get out of the way before it does.

Summary: The car market is going to be very different going forward. The old assumptions and ideas will be less accurate. Some will remain...others will simply be invalid. But right now I'm looking at like smartphones in 2008: new models will offer better and better functionality for a lower price. So buy, in sell soon....and keep up.

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wellygary

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#2135986 28-Nov-2018 14:28

Linuxluver:

happyfunball: If we are talking in a purely financial sense, in terms of cars, nothing in NZ beats driving an old Japanese car. They are cheap to repair, parts are plentiful and the lack of emission testing will ensure they are the cheapest option for many years to come.

I'm thinking the lack of emissions testing will be history by the end of February......if not sooner.

Associate Transport Minister, Julie-Anne Genter, is back from maternity leave and revising the tax regime around vehicles is on the cards either just before Xmas or after Parliament returns next year.

Emitters are likely to be more expensive and non-emitters will likely be easier to buy for people on all incomes. They have said several times that people on low incomes will be benefit the most from EVs in relative terms.....lower cost to run and service them....cleaner for everyone...and also reduce the amount of oil we import.

The detail will be good to see when we can see it. But don't count on being able to run an old, dirty banger for cheap for much longer.

I Seriously doubt anything will be done about the existing fleet, the number of cars impacted would be huge...and I seriously doubt the govt will stump up the 100s of millions/billions needed to actually make a real difference, + there is the issue of actual availability of significant numbers of EVs

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#2135991 28-Nov-2018 14:33

This piece is up on RNZ at the moment, discussing Norway, and explicitly suggesting that the stick is required as well as the carrot in order to make people shift.

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