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Linuxluver

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  #1624844 6-Sep-2016 22:22
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old3eyes:

 

 

 

Yes it will certainly make an impact over the next few years if the car makers  ramp up EV production at a reasonable price.

 

 

I have a feeling the old, entrenched Western car makers may drag the chain on EVs by not making enough of them and charging too much for them. It's worked in the past. 

 

Elon Musk is well aware of this at Tesla and has deliberately tried to subvert that strategy with his promised Model 3. 

 

In response, we are seeing a growing number of "analysts" trashing Tesla stock, trying to limit or undermine confidence in the company and its plan in order to make it struggle financially. They may be successful.

But even if they are.....there is China. China is going crazy developing and making EVs. They are improving rapidly. They don't give a rat's 'Rse' about western financial analysts allied with vested interests in the oil and auto industries.  

 

If Tesla falls over through dirty tricks....there will still be a dozen Chinese EV makers (currently almost 200) happy to sell us their cars. Cheap.  





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  #1624856 6-Sep-2016 22:53
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You have inspired me @linuxluver - i am off to test drive 2013 Leaf tomorrow!

MikeAqua
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  #1624925 7-Sep-2016 09:39
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The dichotomy between Tesla and traditional car manufacturers is is interesting.  Each has an advantage.

 

Tesla know how to make an excellent EV driven train with very impressive electronics.  They still have a lot to learn about the rest of the car.

 

The traditional car makers know how to make a car.  They have learned over decades what works and what people want.  This includes design and development of weight saving, function, efficiency and durability of non-drive train components.  They are behind Tesla on the electric drive train and the EV experience.

 

It will be interesting to see who catches who first.

 

 

 

 





Mike




RUKI
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  #1624955 7-Sep-2016 10:05
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Linuxluver:

 

....there will still be a dozen Chinese EV makers (currently almost 200) happy to sell us their cars. Cheap.  

 

 

"Cheap" is the key word here.

 

Analogy: High quality Quadcopter cost >$3500 - really cool but not affordable for many. It is flying for more than 25 minutes and has all bells and whistles...

 

My wife bought cheap one from China for only $50 to learn to fly one. And it is flying... for 5 minutes only though:

 

My cat with Quadcopter

 

Surely China will make cheap cars which will be able to travel from A to B. And there will be many willing to own one if it is really cheap, I mean as in example above 70 times cheaper....

 

China - bring on "Replica Of Leaf, "Learly" (call it ROLL) for $500 ($35000/70) and I will buy one to give to my son as a gift to play with.

 

Does not matter if brakes in 6 month...

 

German and Japanese manufacturers I think will make some Really good and long lasting EVs..

 

 


wellygary
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  #1624979 7-Sep-2016 10:41
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RUKI:

 

Surely China will make cheap cars which will be able to travel from A to B. And there will be many willing to own one if it is really cheap, I mean as in example above 70 times cheaper....

 

 

Nope, never gonna see that sort of differential as Cars are a heavily regulated/protected industry (safety standards, emissions etc)

 

take current cars as an example,

 

In NZ you can buy a Toyota 1.3l Yaris for 23K or Daihatsu Sirion for 19K, a Chery J1 is atill 13K

 

So while supercheap cars like the Tata Nano exist, they fail almost all the safety standards of "developed" countries and are thus unavailable


Linuxluver

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  #1625176 7-Sep-2016 16:53
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SumnerBoy: You have inspired me @linuxluver - i am off to test drive 2013 Leaf tomorrow!

 

Let me know how you go. :-) 





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Linuxluver

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  #1625181 7-Sep-2016 16:56
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MikeAqua:

 

The dichotomy between Tesla and traditional car manufacturers is is interesting.  Each has an advantage.

 

Tesla know how to make an excellent EV driven train with very impressive electronics.  They still have a lot to learn about the rest of the car.

 

The traditional car makers know how to make a car.  They have learned over decades what works and what people want.  This includes design and development of weight saving, function, efficiency and durability of non-drive train components.  They are behind Tesla on the electric drive train and the EV experience.

 

It will be interesting to see who catches who first.

 

 

Tesla just hired one the of the Nissan LEAF designers. I'd love to know what that person is going to be working on. 

 

As for the existing ICE car makers.....I'm thinking they will want to limit and ration the growth of EVs. They have too much invested in every aspect of internal combustion to lead the charge away from it. Tesla is forcing their hand....but the whispering campaign currently attempting to undermine confidence in Tesla feels very much like a cheaper way to beat the competition....and it's not by building a better car.  





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Linuxluver

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  #1625187 7-Sep-2016 16:58
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RUKI:

 

Linuxluver:

 

....there will still be a dozen Chinese EV makers (currently almost 200) happy to sell us their cars. Cheap.  

 

 

"Cheap" is the key word here.

 

Analogy: High quality Quadcopter cost >$3500 - really cool but not affordable for many. It is flying for more than 25 minutes and has all bells and whistles...

 

My wife bought cheap one from China for only $50 to learn to fly one. And it is flying... for 5 minutes only though:

 

My cat with Quadcopter

 

Surely China will make cheap cars which will be able to travel from A to B. And there will be many willing to own one if it is really cheap, I mean as in example above 70 times cheaper....

 

China - bring on "Replica Of Leaf, "Learly" (call it ROLL) for $500 ($35000/70) and I will buy one to give to my son as a gift to play with.

 

Does not matter if brakes in 6 month...

 

German and Japanese manufacturers I think will make some Really good and long lasting EVs..

 

 

China can make very good stuff.....but it will take some pain and some bills for a bullet sent to the families of the cheaters, fraudsters and criminals.....and they are weeded out. 
For export, I'm fairly sure they will only send the good stuff. They have too much pride at stake to send garbage.....

Most of the stuff we buy today comes from China already.....





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nzkiwiman
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  #1625547 8-Sep-2016 11:51
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Linuxluver:

 

 

 

As for the existing ICE car makers.....I'm thinking they will want to limit and ration the growth of EVs. They have too much invested in every aspect of internal combustion to lead the charge away from it. Tesla is forcing their hand....but the whispering campaign currently attempting to undermine confidence in Tesla feels very much like a cheaper way to beat the competition....and it's not by building a better car.  

 

 

 

 

Always going to have those "theories" that both big oil and car manufacturers are trying to limit the growth of anything alternative because it will cost them money

 

There are also the theories that the issues surrounding the alternatives have already been solved, but in order to make more money things are drip feed to the general population


old3eyes
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  #1625572 8-Sep-2016 12:20
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Heard this on the news this morning Renault considers killing off diesel engines  The item I heard said that they were stopping production.. I should imagine that diesels in Europe may not be the flavor of the month now due to pollution concerns and new  EU regulations.    Good new for EV makers.. 





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Old3eyes


MikeAqua
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  #1625609 8-Sep-2016 13:10
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Linuxluver:

 

MikeAqua:

 

The dichotomy between Tesla and traditional car manufacturers is is interesting.  Each has an advantage.

 

Tesla know how to make an excellent EV driven train with very impressive electronics.  They still have a lot to learn about the rest of the car.

 

The traditional car makers know how to make a car.  They have learned over decades what works and what people want.  This includes design and development of weight saving, function, efficiency and durability of non-drive train components.  They are behind Tesla on the electric drive train and the EV experience.

 

It will be interesting to see who catches who first.

 

 

Tesla just hired one the of the Nissan LEAF designers. I'd love to know what that person is going to be working on. 

 

As for the existing ICE car makers.....I'm thinking they will want to limit and ration the growth of EVs. They have too much invested in every aspect of internal combustion to lead the charge away from it. Tesla is forcing their hand....but the whispering campaign currently attempting to undermine confidence in Tesla feels very much like a cheaper way to beat the competition....and it's not by building a better car.  

 

 

Right now I would suggest the EV is self-limiting from a performance and price perspective. 

 

Long term ICE car manufacturers want to be selling EVs.  Ultimately they offer simplicity and reliability advantages that are irresistible. The problem is getting the battery performance sorted.  At that point they will have a complete EV and they already have the network and infrastructure to crank them out. 

 

Yes they all have sunk investment in ICE but can adapt, change assembly lines etc. Think of the variety of technologies auto makers have adopted over the last 100 years.

 

Plus they can have their cake an eat it to .  If BEVs become the default light duty vehicles (not predicted any-time soon) there are plenty of remaining applications for ICEs - heavy transport, industrial, mining, construction, agriculture, military, marine, off-road ...

 

In the meantime the ICE folks probably want Tesla's progress to be slow as possible and will be happy undermine them by any legal means. 

 

Because if Tesla can design a complete vehicle and build at price and volume they are a real threat to 'big-auto'.  It takes a few generations (not counting face-lifts) of a particular car to really nail it.  So probably Tesla have a way to go.

 

 

 

 





Mike


robjg63
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  #1625654 8-Sep-2016 13:27
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Like any company - expansion badly managed is often the killer.

 

I would really love to see Tesla succeed, but not delivering on time and/or keeping up with demand will have the potential to create great dissatisfaction and also allow the competation to catch up. I am actually surprised that the conventional car makers havent caught up already - but they are certainly taking the EV market seriously now.

 

In some ways it would have made a great deal of sense for Telsa to team up with a company that already had production ability and spare plant resources rather than doing everything themselves from the ground up. I always thought that Mitsubishi would have been an obvious candidate for partnership - they got badly clobbered with their partnerships with Daimler-Chrysler and Peugeot Citroën and had recently indicated they were putting a lot of effort into EV. Nissan squealed on some dodgy fuel consumption figures that Mitsubishi had used in Japan (on vehicles Mitusbishi built for Nissan), and once the share price plummeted Nissan bought a controlling share. Cant help but think it was a badly missed opportunity for Tesla.

 

A key targget for Elon Musk has always been to get manufacturing levels up to the point where the cost of the cars comes down (a lot).

 

 





Nothing is impossible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself - A. H. Weiler


Linuxluver

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  #1626789 9-Sep-2016 22:32
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robjg63:

Like any company - expansion badly managed is often the killer.


I would really love to see Tesla succeed, but not delivering on time and/or keeping up with demand will have the potential to create great dissatisfaction and also allow the competation to catch up. I am actually surprised that the conventional car makers havent caught up already - but they are certainly taking the EV market seriously now.


In some ways it would have made a great deal of sense for Telsa to team up with a company that already had production ability and spare plant resources rather than doing everything themselves from the ground up. I always thought that Mitsubishi would have been an obvious candidate for partnership - they got badly clobbered with their partnerships with Daimler-Chrysler and Peugeot Citroën and had recently indicated they were putting a lot of effort into EV. Nissan squealed on some dodgy fuel consumption figures that Mitsubishi had used in Japan (on vehicles Mitusbishi built for Nissan), and once the share price plummeted Nissan bought a controlling share. Cant help but think it was a badly missed opportunity for Tesla.


A key targget for Elon Musk has always been to get manufacturing levels up to the point where the cost of the cars comes down (a lot).


 



Have you seen video about Tesla's assembly line?

Robots putting cars together. Robots making the parts. Robots delivering the parts to the assembly line. People overseeing to catch errors.

Incredible.

24/7.




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MikeB4
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  #1628355 13-Sep-2016 09:23
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