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186 posts

Master Geek

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  # 2081707 30-Aug-2018 23:16
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@Aredwood: The "keep Corolla" solution is probably the best one for a while but it will rust away.

 

 

What about 24kwh vs 30kwh? Is there advantages/disadvantages to either?



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  # 2081711 30-Aug-2018 23:25
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olivernz: Hey all, So I have a conundrum. My Corolla is coming of age. And I'm in the market for a new car. Daily km's is 20-50km, about 10x a year a 300km+ round trip voyage. Now comes the kicker. The grandparents are moving into a retirement village a few k's down the road. Won't have a car anymore so every so often we need to transport them. We is 2 adults and two kids < 10y. So I actually need a 6 seater for 95% inner city <50km per day driving. As far as I know that doesn't exist (except EV200 - too basic and Tesla X - I am not a 1%er). And on top of all that i sort of don't see the point in buying a petrol car. My current stance is a Leaf 2014+ but also unsure 24 or 30kwh. That still doesn't solve my 6 seat issue though. Also been thinking of buying a used Odyssey now for long trips and when the grandparents need to come along and then in 1-2y a Leaf for the commuting stuff. But not really keen on 2 cars. Cheers Oliver

 

Our solution to the 6-person problem was to buy two smaller cars. On the few occasions we needed 6 seats, we put 3 people in each car. 

If you buy two cheap LEAFs, you can carry up to 10 people - 5 in each - and still pay next to nothing to drive around. 

Worked for us. Two small car was much cheaper and more flexible than one great big one that went everywhere. When it's the four of you - the 90% solution - just drive one cheap car. 





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  # 2081713 30-Aug-2018 23:34
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olivernz: @Aredwood: The "keep Corolla" solution is probably the best one for a while but it will rust away. What about 24kwh vs 30kwh? Is there advantages/disadvantages to either?

 

30kWh LEAF DC (fast) charges about 25% faster than the 24kWh LEAF.

The 30 also has about 25% better range - even if at the same stage of age: 85% SoH of 24kWh after 5 years is going to be roughly 25% less range than a 30 that's also at 85% SoH after 5 years. 

The 30 of the same age as the 24 will cost more because it  has more range. 

From what you say, your daily drive of 50km would be easily handled by all but the very worst LEAFs (and there are very few *that* bad.....). 

There is a 24kWh 2012 LEAF sitting in my driveway...and it can do 100km on a full charge in the city.   My 30 can do 200km in the city....





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If you order a Tesla, use my referral code to get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


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  # 2081724 31-Aug-2018 00:36
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@olivernz The keep Corolla option is only a temporary solution. While you wait for better EVs to become available. It also means that you can buy a cheaper Leaf right now. As it only needs enough range to handle your commute for the next few years. Having 2 cars also means less reliability worries. If a car won't drive first thing in the morning, just use the other car while you arrange repairs at your convenience.

Even old Corollas still hold their value well. And are cheap to service and repair. So no problems there. Owning even an older leaf as well, means that you can still get a big running cost saving. Along with not having to spend $100K or so to buy a suitable EV today.

SUVs are a very popular vehicle type. All major manufacturers will be releasing EV SUVs as soon as they have access to big enough batteries. So no point rushing now, Especially as you already own an ICE car that can fill in the gaps in your usage for now. That can't be met by a cheaper EV.

I'm doing a similar thing myself. I want an EV Van. The Nissan ENV is too small for me. I got offered a Hilux Surf at a price that I couldn't refuse. So I no longer need to buy a brand new ICE Van. And my current old Mercedes Van actually uses less diesel than some brand new diesel vans. The emissions savings in my situation are from avoiding the embodied emissions that would be released from manufacturing a brand new ICE Van.





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  # 2082713 2-Sep-2018 11:46
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driller2000:

 

I found a spreadsheet online and tried to tweak it for NZ ( i think it is about right?) - and compared a couple of ICE and EV options - and an EV stacked up for me and my use case:

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zdriyszmupqfh5h/Model%203%20Cost%20Calculator%20-%20NZ.xlsx?dl=0

 

 

Thanks for the link to your spreadsheet. In my case, I’m comparing the petrol Hyundai Elite Kona, which costs about $42,000, with the 64 kWh Elite Hyundai Kona EV, which with home charger, costs about $82,000.

 

I usually buy a new vehicle every 3 years. Therefore, over a 3-year period, using the depreciation rates in your spreadsheet, the depreciation on the petrol Kona would be $17,640, compared with $34,440 for the EV, so this is a very significant factor to take into account.

 

I travel about 15,000 kms per year. Therefore, with regard to petrol and electricity costs over a 3-year period, the electricity used to charge the EV might cost about $6,000 - $8,000 less than the petrol needed for the petrol model.

 

However, if ChargeNet fast chargers are often used (as might be the case on all trips away from home), then this saving could be substantially less.

 

With regard to the expenses of owning the Kona, the EV should cost substantially less to own than the petrol version, but the higher insurance costs of owning the much more expensive EV, might offset these savings to some extent.

 

So, overall, with my example, because the EV costs a huge $40,000 more than the petrol version, the EV will cost a lot more to own over a 3-year period.

 

Despite this, there are many “non-financial” advantages of owning the Kona EV, such as environmental benefits and the enjoyment of owning the latest technology.

 

Therefore, provided you can afford it, I wouldn’t worry too much about the substantial additional costs of owning the Kona 64 kWh EV when compared to the costs of owning the petrol Kona.

 

 


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  # 2082723 2-Sep-2018 12:29
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The cost savings of an EV are mostly around the difference in fuel costs.

Deprecation is around 30% the first year, so if you trade in a more expensive car quickly, any savings in fuel and maintenance would have much less of an impact than deprecation.

The studies I've seen have a minimum of 5 years ownership, and are usually based on 10 years ownership.

The average age of a car in New Zealand is 14 years.

The more years you own it, deprecation has less of an impact, and that's where EV's really shine: fuel price and maintenance.

Since New Zealand produces electricity locally cheaply, even if batteries remain expensive, I'd expect EV cost savings to increase.

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Master Geek

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  # 2082739 2-Sep-2018 13:10
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The pleasure of owning and driving an EV outweighs all these cost comparisons. And the bonus is that you are making some small contribution to the elephant in the room - climate change. Seems worthwhile to me but there are many vested interests that are threatened by the inevitable change that has to come so there are many articles that are published trying to change the inevitable.

 

 

 

Just to preempt the posts that are certain to follow - I won't be reacting.- it is truely a rerun of the horse to ICE arguments of a century ago. We still have horses but we don't rely on them for our day to day transport. 


 
 
 
 


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  # 2082751 2-Sep-2018 13:47
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kingdragonfly: The cost savings of an EV are mostly around the difference in fuel costs.

Deprecation is around 30% the first year, so if you trade in a more expensive car quickly, any savings in fuel and maintenance would have much less of an impact than deprecation.

The studies I've seen have a minimum of 5 years ownership, and are usually based on 10 years ownership.

The average age of a car in New Zealand is 14 years.

The more years you own it, deprecation has less of an impact, and that's where EV's really shine: fuel price and maintenance.

Since New Zealand produces electricity locally cheaply, even if batteries remain expensive, I'd expect EV cost savings to increase.

 

I agree that the longer you own a vehicle, the less is the impact of depreciation. But, because the range, for example, of EVs is advancing so rapidly, an EV bought this year might already look a bit obsolete in 3 years’ time.

 

I think second-hand EV buyers benefit considerably from new EV owners not holding on to their vehicles for too long. If you want to keep up with the technology, I think a lot of people who buy new EVs will sell them within 3 years. I can’t imagine that many buyers of new EVs will hang on to them for as long as 10 years, even though this is a very economical thing to do from the point of view of depreciation costs.

 

With regard to fuel cost savings, now that EVs are available in NZ that have a range of more than 400kms, it needs to be taken into account that owners are likely to use their EVs for all their trips and may use ChargeNet facilities quite often, which are much more expensive than charging at home using cheap electricity night rates.

 

 


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  # 2082770 2-Sep-2018 14:35
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Those of you that buy a brand new car every say 3 years, if you were to migrate to an EV would you still roll your cars over at the 3 year mark? The whole less moving parts/reliability argument would suggest you could span that to 5 or 6 years at very little extra risk helping the running cost  saving? (Given most cars run 6~7 years in same body shape you potentially get stuck with two depreciation hits for basically the same car anyway :P )

 

I would argue that depreciation will flatten off once its market price is around the $20~25k mark as this is the buy-in point for a decent secondhand buyer. 


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  # 2082820 2-Sep-2018 16:58
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Wade:

 

Those of you that buy a brand new car every say 3 years, if you were to migrate to an EV would you still roll your cars over at the 3 year mark? The whole less moving parts/reliability argument would suggest you could span that to 5 or 6 years at very little extra risk helping the running cost  saving? (Given most cars run 6~7 years in same body shape you potentially get stuck with two depreciation hits for basically the same car anyway :P )

 

I would argue that depreciation will flatten off once its market price is around the $20~25k mark as this is the buy-in point for a decent secondhand buyer. 

 

 

In answer to your question, yes I think I would still roll over EV's at the 3-year mark so that I always got the best range possible from the EV. For example, if you buy an EV now that has a range of 400 km, then in 5 or 6 years' time that range might have reduced to 320 km because of battery degradation. And after 3 years, because of advances in technology, the replacement EV might have a range of 600 km, so this would be worthwhile if range is an important factor for you.


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  # 2082855 2-Sep-2018 18:21
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EVs are less mechanically complex than an ICE vehicle. While changing the gas tank's capacity would be very, very unusual in an ICE vehicle, most EV's battery packs are designed to be replaced.

Several EVs lets you upgrade the battery pack with one with more capacity but the same physical size: Renault Zoe, BMW i3, and Tesla models

Realize that the old battery pack is not thrown away. You are doing an exchange. For the Leaf, it's estimated the replacement is 1/3 the cost of a new pack, if you were able to buy it without exchanging it with the old one. There's a second life in the old batteries, for example in home and commercial electric storage.

I think the exception to battery upgrades is the Nissan Leaf,. Nissan Leaf has been given grief about their "design feature" lack of an active thermal management. I'm not sure that can be fixed with a new battery pack alone. I assume air vents, ducting are needed. Oddly their Nissan van uses mostly the same components. Nissan reason for the van's active thermal management is the van's a commercial vehicle and the Leaf car is not. I think this logic is flawed, by the way.

As of August 2018, I can't find anything but rumours that Nissan will have this sorted in the next model year Leaf.

Back to other EVs, the engine, brakes,safety features, and physical interior are unlikely to change. (However as years pass, superficial changes to the interior are likely, such as colour schemes. )

I think in all EV's, the software is updated periodically. So you are unlikely to get more features, like in the infotainment center.

But for some the exterior and interior cosmetic changes are important. Me, not so much.

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  # 2082878 2-Sep-2018 19:54
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kingdragonfly: EVs are less mechanically complex than an ICE vehicle. While changing the gas tank's capacity would be very, very unusual in an ICE vehicle, most EV's battery packs are designed to be replaced.

Several EVs lets you upgrade the battery pack with one with more capacity but the same physical size: Renault Zoe, BMW i3, and Tesla models

 

 

 

This will be a major turn-off for your normal, middle-low income second-hand car buyer, as they don't buy 3yo cars, they're more likely 10yo.

 

First you have to buy the car (at a mad price, compared to a 10year old hyundai) and THEN you have to buy a new battery because, without it, your car is going to become useless. 

 

 

 

And while a used EV battery *might* be used in a home situation, I'd hope it wasn't my home... I don't want something that's already lost capacity, unless they were installing it free.

 

 

 

I already have 20 18650 batteries I'm finding it hard to get rid of. Stuffed if I want a couple of thousand in 10 years time!


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  # 2082885 2-Sep-2018 20:13
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As mentioned, in Japan Nissan charges 1/3 the price for replacement and installation of the battery pack versus the cost of a new battery pack

With fuel savings, the initial car owners cost should have paid for itself before they must be replaced. Unless the car catches fire, the batteries will likely have some use to someone. There's an economy of scale differance between 20 and thousands

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/for-dead-ev-batteries-reuse-comes-before-recycle/

For dead EV batteries, reuse comes before recycle

Automakers and e-waste recyclers find new uses for electric vehicle batteries when their on-road service life ends.

Electric vehicles make up less than 1 percent of current US auto sales, but their numbers are growing, with one projection putting them at 54 percent by 2040. The number of battery packs for these vehicles will also increase, and that presents a waste problem. Beyond a rising tide of pure electric cars, the increasing number of hybrid and plug-in hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles will contribute to this problem.

What happens when a hybrid or electric car's battery pack gets damaged in an accident, wears out or just stops working?

The value of these batteries, potential reuse and danger to the environment if they are merely discarded is causing automakers to adopt new strategies to deal with old parts. And in conjunction with this need, there's an opportunity for e-waste recyclers to step in.

he junkyards of America became stacked with crushed cars over the last century, the big cylinder blocks of once-vaunted engines rusting away along with fenders and frames. With electric cars, however, the idea of leaving a lithium-ion battery pack in a junkyard car looks foolish from a financial standpoint, as a Bloomberg report (PDF) notes that these batteries cost $273 per kilowatt-hour in 2016.

For a car with a 30 kilowatt-hour battery pack, junking it would mean an $8,190 component rotting away.

Tesla's current model lineup uses battery packs of 75 and 100 kilowatt-hours, accounting for a big chunk of each car's individual price tag. Although Tesla didn't respond to a query about its battery disposal strategy in time for publication, the company published a blog in 2011 outlining its process. The blog notes that the automotive industry already has a profitable system in place for recycling the lead-acid batteries used in gasoline engine cars, with a 90 percent intake rate. The blog mentions reusing components from the battery packs, and recycling the rest.

Tesla may be finding even more profit in recycling, as earlier this year, a company called Redwood Materials emerged with apparent ties to the company. This Redwood City, California-based company, not too far from Tesla's own headquarters in Palo Alto, seems focused on recycling modern commercial waste, as a form on its site covers everything from lithium-ion batteries to compost.

Nissan put the Leaf electric car on the road in 2010, and has sold over 100,000 units in the US through 2016. A new version of the Nissan Leaf comes out next year, which will likely lead to a boost in sales. To deal with the accumulation of battery packs either replaced at dealer service departments or pulled from crashed Leafs, Nissan sends some out to a recycler.

However, Nissan subsidiary 4REnergy also figures out how to reuse the batteries. Nissan spokesman Josh Clifton said, "Reuse opportunities range from very small kilowatt-hour applications involving portable energy supplies to very large megawatt-hour stationary energy storage for commercial and utility."

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  # 2082911 2-Sep-2018 21:46
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kingdragonfly: As mentioned, in Japan Nissan charges 1/3 the price for replacement and installation of the battery pack versus the cost of a new battery pack

With fuel savings, the initial car owners cost should have paid for itself before they must be replaced. Unless the car catches fire, the batteries will likely have some use to someone. There's an economy of scale differance between 20 and thousands

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/for-dead-ev-batteries-reuse-comes-before-recycle/

For dead EV batteries, reuse comes before recycle

Automakers and e-waste recyclers find new uses for electric vehicle batteries when their on-road service life ends.

Electric vehicles make up less than 1 percent of current US auto sales, but their numbers are growing, with one projection putting them at 54 percent by 2040. The number of battery packs for these vehicles will also increase, and that presents a waste problem. Beyond a rising tide of pure electric cars, the increasing number of hybrid and plug-in hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles will contribute to this problem.

What happens when a hybrid or electric car's battery pack gets damaged in an accident, wears out or just stops working?

The value of these batteries, potential reuse and danger to the environment if they are merely discarded is causing automakers to adopt new strategies to deal with old parts. And in conjunction with this need, there's an opportunity for e-waste recyclers to step in.

he junkyards of America became stacked with crushed cars over the last century, the big cylinder blocks of once-vaunted engines rusting away along with fenders and frames. With electric cars, however, the idea of leaving a lithium-ion battery pack in a junkyard car looks foolish from a financial standpoint, as a Bloomberg report (PDF) notes that these batteries cost $273 per kilowatt-hour in 2016.

For a car with a 30 kilowatt-hour battery pack, junking it would mean an $8,190 component rotting away.

Tesla's current model lineup uses battery packs of 75 and 100 kilowatt-hours, accounting for a big chunk of each car's individual price tag. Although Tesla didn't respond to a query about its battery disposal strategy in time for publication, the company published a blog in 2011 outlining its process. The blog notes that the automotive industry already has a profitable system in place for recycling the lead-acid batteries used in gasoline engine cars, with a 90 percent intake rate. The blog mentions reusing components from the battery packs, and recycling the rest.

Tesla may be finding even more profit in recycling, as earlier this year, a company called Redwood Materials emerged with apparent ties to the company. This Redwood City, California-based company, not too far from Tesla's own headquarters in Palo Alto, seems focused on recycling modern commercial waste, as a form on its site covers everything from lithium-ion batteries to compost.

Nissan put the Leaf electric car on the road in 2010, and has sold over 100,000 units in the US through 2016. A new version of the Nissan Leaf comes out next year, which will likely lead to a boost in sales. To deal with the accumulation of battery packs either replaced at dealer service departments or pulled from crashed Leafs, Nissan sends some out to a recycler.

However, Nissan subsidiary 4REnergy also figures out how to reuse the batteries. Nissan spokesman Josh Clifton said, "Reuse opportunities range from very small kilowatt-hour applications involving portable energy supplies to very large megawatt-hour stationary energy storage for commercial and utility."

 

 

 

Yay for initial owners... Trade in so it becomes someone elses problem?

 

The fact I can't find anywhere to take 20 shows that nobody in this part of the word is ready to take thousands. 

 

Bold is all mine. Sounds like a lot of "will", "seems", and "opportunities" and not much "are currently". And I haven't heard about about any current "small Kw/h applications" using recycled car power packs. Considering the Prius has been around for years, you'd think *something* would be happening.

 

And tesla didn't even bother. A blog in 2011.... Lead acid recycling is a bit different to Lithium Ion. It's been happening for decades, and even that isn't clean, or safe. Ask the people in Petone.

 

What happens at a car wreckers? They aren't going to have the pull of manufacturers, or the money to send offshore. These things are going to sit in a yard or warehouse until something changes, or they're going to become an environmental disaster (in the case of a fire). Auto wreckers aren't exactly known for being the "greenest" of businesses. And then there's the cases of recycling companies that catch fire.. One here has caught fire nearly twice a year for the last 6 years. That's going to be fun for the people nearby, and emergency services.

 

Also remember how much "recycling" of anything is being done these days... Stuff is piling up in recycle yards around the world.

 

 

 

While I think it's all noble to buy EVs for the "right reasons", I'd like to see proof that it not's going to be another complete mess before the whole world gets on board. While NZ might have "green" electricity, most countries don't. Look at how good diesel was said to be, even 10-15 years ago.


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  # 2082964 3-Sep-2018 07:25
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There are people who love horse drawn carriages, steam engines, the sound of a flat head 8, and think that safety belts are for careless drivers.

However NZ produces electricity locally cheaply, EVs are mechanically simpler, importing petrol funds terrorists, extracting fossil fuels damages the environment, burning fossil fuels is causing the sea levels to rise, transporting it regularly causes environmental disasters, and pollution from fossil fuels has been linked to many health problems, including dementia and Alzheimer's.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/brain-pollution-evidence-builds-dirty-air-causes-alzheimer-s-dementia

On balance, I think damage done by burning oil is worse than the battery recycling problems in Petone

As for stuff piling up, young entrepreneurs will see that as an opportunity. You need a big pile of stuff before there's an economics of scale to start.

If you don't want to be part of the solution, don't care if the world burns to a crisp after you die, no one is forcing you. There are literally people who still ride horses to work.

Though I doubt it'll change anyone's mind, here's an article from the Union of Concerned Scientists on the hidden cost of fossil fuels

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/hidden-cost-of-fossils

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