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dacraka
634 posts

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  #2082989 3-Sep-2018 08:16
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driller2000:

 

frednz:

 

Sure, if you drive very long distances every year, then EVs make a lot of sense provided that you can afford to buy a suitable one. So, the point I was making was that, if you buy a nice new Hyundai 64 kWh Elite model which costs $79,999 plus a special charger for home of about $2,000, then this is a big investment, even for a reasonably wealthy person (and most Kona EV buyers seem to want the $80,000 Elite model).

 

 

I found a spreadsheet online and tried to tweak it for NZ ( i think it is about right?) - and compared a couple of ICE and EV options - and an EV stacked up for me and my use case:

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zdriyszmupqfh5h/Model%203%20Cost%20Calculator%20-%20NZ.xlsx?dl=0

 

 

 

I drive a V8 so want similar performance - which the 3 can provide.

 

 

 

Admittedly - New EV vs 2nd Hand ICE would not come out the same - but that aint a like for like comparison.

 

 

 

Anyway - was fun to mess around with....

 

 

 

 

How did you work out the Model 3 NZD price?


SaltyNZ
5476 posts

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  #2083003 3-Sep-2018 08:47
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Good discussion on incentives for EV / disincentives for ICEV purchases in this month's FtF report.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


 
 
 
 


tripper1000
1249 posts

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  #2083133 3-Sep-2018 12:10
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blakamin:

 

This will be a major turn-off for your normal, middle-low income second-hand car buyer, as they don't buy 3yo cars, they're more likely 10yo.

 

First you have to buy the car (at a mad price, compared to a 10year old hyundai) and THEN you have to buy a new battery because, without it, your car is going to become useless. 

 

And while a used EV battery *might* be used in a home situation, I'd hope it wasn't my home... I don't want something that's already lost capacity, unless they were installing it free.

 

I already have 20 18650 batteries I'm finding it hard to get rid of. Stuffed if I want a couple of thousand in 10 years time!

 

 

I think you are a bit early to the lithium recycling party - Tesla, Nissan etc have no trouble getting rid of their batteries at this stage because 2nd hand battery packs are in extremely high demand for off-grid projects and DIY EV conversions. What this means at this stage is that there are few dead batteries and consequently very low demand for recycling. There are companies setting up shop to recover lithium, cobalt, nickel etc from discarded batteries, however their limiting factor is that the supply of raw materials is so small that they are not yet economical and consequently not yet available everywhere. Once dead EV batteries are an everyday occurrence, I think you'll find your 20x 18650's as easy to get rid of as a set of smacked up alloy rims are presently.

 

On the point of buying EV's and replacing EV batteries, you are a bit out of the market on this one - you won't find a mid priced EV in need of new batteries simply because the value of an EV is set by the condition of it's batteries. A mid priced EV will have mid-condition batteries. There are kiwi's bringing Leaf's in from Japan to salvage the battery and dump the rest -  a Leaf with no batteries is practically worthless.

 

Edit: spelling.

 

 


driller2000
808 posts

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  #2083212 3-Sep-2018 13:32
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dacraka:

 

How did you work out the Model 3 NZD price?

 

 

I made it up!!  :)

 

But in hindsight I suspect I am probably $15k short - easy to change for testing purposes though.


driller2000
808 posts

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  #2083221 3-Sep-2018 13:43
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frednz:

 

driller2000:

 

I found a spreadsheet online and tried to tweak it for NZ ( i think it is about right?) - and compared a couple of ICE and EV options - and an EV stacked up for me and my use case:

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zdriyszmupqfh5h/Model%203%20Cost%20Calculator%20-%20NZ.xlsx?dl=0

 

 

Thanks for the link to your spreadsheet. In my case, I’m comparing the petrol Hyundai Elite Kona, which costs about $42,000, with the 64 kWh Elite Hyundai Kona EV, which with home charger, costs about $82,000.

 

I usually buy a new vehicle every 3 years. Therefore, over a 3-year period, using the depreciation rates in your spreadsheet, the depreciation on the petrol Kona would be $17,640, compared with $34,440 for the EV, so this is a very significant factor to take into account.

 

I travel about 15,000 kms per year. Therefore, with regard to petrol and electricity costs over a 3-year period, the electricity used to charge the EV might cost about $6,000 - $8,000 less than the petrol needed for the petrol model.

 

However, if ChargeNet fast chargers are often used (as might be the case on all trips away from home), then this saving could be substantially less.

 

With regard to the expenses of owning the Kona, the EV should cost substantially less to own than the petrol version, but the higher insurance costs of owning the much more expensive EV, might offset these savings to some extent.

 

So, overall, with my example, because the EV costs a huge $40,000 more than the petrol version, the EV will cost a lot more to own over a 3-year period.

 

Despite this, there are many “non-financial” advantages of owning the Kona EV, such as environmental benefits and the enjoyment of owning the latest technology.

 

Therefore, provided you can afford it, I wouldn’t worry too much about the substantial additional costs of owning the Kona 64 kWh EV when compared to the costs of owning the petrol Kona.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah depreciation figures were difficult to come by for EV's.

 

So what is in the sheet is definitely up for debate - I think I based it on an article re Model S depreciation - which I am sure isn't relevant for all EV's.

 

But I also read some articles that suggested depreciation for EV's could be minimal or close to zero given minimal wear (battery aside) - and likely increasing demand.

 

The key issue is that there simply isn't a big enough / long enough data set yet to get reliable depreciation figures for EV's. (At least that I could find.)

 

 

 

And for ICE - I read other articles suggested ICE cars may well be impossible to sell 2nd hand in 15-20 years - so yeah who knows??

 

 

 

But again - it is all editable - so feel free to adjust based on whatever info you can find - and if you do find better data please report back : )


MikeAqua
6059 posts

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  #2083598 4-Sep-2018 10:29
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driller2000:

 

Yeah depreciation figures were difficult to come by for EV's.

 

 

I realise this is stating the obvious but .... it depends what you buy. Depreciation of assets within a particular category is more a function of the purchase price, than the actual rate. 

 

IRD's straight-line depreciation rate for light motor vehicles used for transport is 21%.  I'm going to call that 20% to make the maths easy.

 

Let's look at an apples-apples example, focussing purely on depreciation: An ~$80k Kona EV vs a ~$40k Kona ICE.  

 

In the first year; the EV loses $16k, while the ICEV loses $8k.

 

Perhaps the EV will depreciate a little slower, due to under-supply of EVs and people pricing in lower running costs, but not by enough to bridge that gap.

 

If you are comparing older vehicles, the absolute difference in purchase price is smaller.  Consequently, the difference in depreciation costs is smaller and depreciation is a smaller proportion of total operating costs.

 

 

 

 

 

 





Mike


frednz
1434 posts

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  #2083632 4-Sep-2018 11:03
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driller2000:

 

frednz:

 

driller2000:

 

I found a spreadsheet online and tried to tweak it for NZ ( i think it is about right?) - and compared a couple of ICE and EV options - and an EV stacked up for me and my use case:

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zdriyszmupqfh5h/Model%203%20Cost%20Calculator%20-%20NZ.xlsx?dl=0

 

 

Thanks for the link to your spreadsheet. In my case, I’m comparing the petrol Hyundai Elite Kona, which costs about $42,000, with the 64 kWh Elite Hyundai Kona EV, which with home charger, costs about $82,000.

 

I usually buy a new vehicle every 3 years. Therefore, over a 3-year period, using the depreciation rates in your spreadsheet, the depreciation on the petrol Kona would be $17,640, compared with $34,440 for the EV, so this is a very significant factor to take into account.

 

I travel about 15,000 kms per year. Therefore, with regard to petrol and electricity costs over a 3-year period, the electricity used to charge the EV might cost about $6,000 - $8,000 less than the petrol needed for the petrol model.

 

However, if ChargeNet fast chargers are often used (as might be the case on all trips away from home), then this saving could be substantially less.

 

With regard to the expenses of owning the Kona, the EV should cost substantially less to own than the petrol version, but the higher insurance costs of owning the much more expensive EV, might offset these savings to some extent.

 

So, overall, with my example, because the EV costs a huge $40,000 more than the petrol version, the EV will cost a lot more to own over a 3-year period.

 

Despite this, there are many “non-financial” advantages of owning the Kona EV, such as environmental benefits and the enjoyment of owning the latest technology.

 

Therefore, provided you can afford it, I wouldn’t worry too much about the substantial additional costs of owning the Kona 64 kWh EV when compared to the costs of owning the petrol Kona.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah depreciation figures were difficult to come by for EV's.

 

So what is in the sheet is definitely up for debate - I think I based it on an article re Model S depreciation - which I am sure isn't relevant for all EV's.

 

But I also read some articles that suggested depreciation for EV's could be minimal or close to zero given minimal wear (battery aside) - and likely increasing demand.

 

The key issue is that there simply isn't a big enough / long enough data set yet to get reliable depreciation figures for EV's. (At least that I could find.)

 

 

 

And for ICE - I read other articles suggested ICE cars may well be impossible to sell 2nd hand in 15-20 years - so yeah who knows??

 

 

 

But again - it is all editable - so feel free to adjust based on whatever info you can find - and if you do find better data please report back : )

 

 

What your spreadsheet shows is that, when the cost of the petrol car (ICE) and the electric vehicle (EV) are almost the same, the depreciation will also be similar. Therefore, in these circumstances, it’s most likely that the cost of owning the EV will be less than that of the ICE, because of savings on fuel costs.

 

But, in my example, where the cost of the NZ-New Kona 64 kWh EV ($82,000) is $40,000 more than the cost of the equivalent ICE Kona ($42,000), then the extra depreciation (over a 3-year period) on the EV of nearly $17,000 is likely to be at least double the amount of fuel savings from owning the EV over that period.

 

Just one other point about your spreadsheet, I notice that the average electricity costs that you factored in over the 5-year period are 19 cents per kWh. However, if you buy an expensive long-range EV, it’s possible that quite a lot of your charging may be at a fast ChargeNet DC charger. So, instead of paying 19 cents per kWh, you could expect to pay up to 62 cents per kWh when you are charging your EV away from home. If this is factored in to your spreadsheet, the fuel savings from owning the EV might not be as large as stated, particularly when you often use fast DC charging.


 
 
 
 


Clawhammer
27 posts

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  #2085109 6-Sep-2018 15:52
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You mention that there are companies who are looking at recycling old EV batteries, I would like to think that someone in NZ is looking at setting up a plant here. While we have pretty well established methods of recycling petrol engines I cannot see anything comparable for EV batteries which contain a cocktail of nasty chemicals  The alternative would be to ship them to another country for recycling. Because of cost considerations this will most probably be a third world country where only lip service is paid to health and safety, effectively dodging the real cost of using EVs. I have already seen companies on Trademe advertising low capacity (scrap) cells for a nominal price. Are they thinking that if they can get a few dollars for them it's far cheaper than having to pay someone to take them away. If this gets expensive, how long before they end up being flytipped as has happened many times with scrap tyres. 

 

Exporting is fine if we are prepared (as a Country) to turn a blind eye to this well established practice. Fine until like China recently with our plastic waste, these countries suddenly decide not to take any more. How quickly will we accumulate a few thousand tons of dead EV batteries in a yard somewhere in south Auckland with everyone scratching their heads, or something, trying to think what to do with them?

 

Surely by allowing the importation of more used electric vehicles we are also importing batteries which have a short life. In doing so we are exacerbating a problem for which we, as yet, have no answer.

 

If I am allowed one slightly off-topic comment, if all of the petrol cars were replaced by electric overnight, the grid system would collapse and it would probably take several years to recover back to it's current fragile state.


wellygary
5004 posts

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  #2085119 6-Sep-2018 16:01
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Clawhammer:

 

If I am allowed one slightly off-topic comment, if all of the petrol cars were replaced by electric overnight, the grid system would collapse and it would probably take several years to recover back to it's current fragile state.

 

 

yes, but the same magic wand that turns all ICE vehicles into EVs overnight can also add enough renewable grid capacity to run them :)

 

--The transition to EVs will be gradual, the grid will cope... 


Dingbatt
4589 posts

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  #2085136 6-Sep-2018 16:47
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wellygary:

Clawhammer:


If I am allowed one slightly off-topic comment, if all of the petrol cars were replaced by electric overnight, the grid system would collapse and it would probably take several years to recover back to it's current fragile state.



yes, but the same magic wand that turns all ICE vehicles into EVs overnight can also add enough renewable grid capacity to run them :)


--The transition to EVs will be gradual, the grid will cope... 



Are you talking about the grid that can barely cope at the moment? The one that burns natural gas and coal to generate electricity to cover the shortfall in generation from renewables? And even then runs short of capacity occasionally.
NZ needs massive investment in tidal and hydro to have any hope of achieving a reliable energy supply. But when we can't even get a water supply dam built, what hope is there for something more substantial.




Areas of Geek interest: Home Theatre, HTPC, Android Tablets & Phones, iProducts.

MikeAqua
6059 posts

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  #2085137 6-Sep-2018 16:50
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wellygary:

 

Clawhammer:

 

If I am allowed one slightly off-topic comment, if all of the petrol cars were replaced by electric overnight, the grid system would collapse and it would probably take several years to recover back to it's current fragile state.

 

 

yes, but the same magic wand that turns all ICE vehicles into EVs overnight can also add enough renewable grid capacity to run them :)

 

--The transition to EVs will be gradual, the grid will cope... 

 

 

Agree - fleet replacement is pretty slow in NZ. 

 

Our light vehicle fleet has an average age of 14.4 years and it's getting higher.

 

NZ's Current light vehicle fleet size is about 3.5 million.  To put that in context Nissan has made in total about 350,000 leaves.  There currently isn't the production capacity to suddenly convert even a big chunk of NZ's fleet to EVs. 

 

Even if EV's were as cheap as ICEVs and performed better in all respects, it would still take decades. 

 

 





Mike


kingdragonfly
5117 posts

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  #2085146 6-Sep-2018 17:13
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Clawhammer: If I am allowed one slightly off-topic comment, if all of the petrol cars were replaced by electric overnight, the grid system would collapse and it would probably take several years to recover back to it's current fragile state.


The grid wouldn't collapse. Most heating happens at night, which really sucks the juice.

With simple timers charging could start at 10 pm or later.


https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-impact-electric-grid/

From Wired

"The good news is that massive—if not immediate—EV uptake could be a boon to the grid, by leveling out daily electricity demand and possibly even storing renewable energy in cars’ batteries, to be discharged when needed."


https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/25/electric-car-myth-buster-electrical-grid/

From Clean Technica

"Utility companies sell electricity. It’s what they do. The more they sell, the more revenue they get.

And here’s a little known fact about utility companies. Because they are legal monopolies, they are guaranteed a stated rate of return on their investments.

They get paid to spend money to upgrade the utility grid. How else do you explain why they are constantly pouring tens of billions of dollars into new generating plants and transmission lines?

They love spending money because every dollar spent equals more money in their pocket."

Clawhammer
27 posts

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  #2085162 6-Sep-2018 18:03
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I have a fairly simple approach to calculations.
light petrol vehicles travelled 30 billion kms in 2016, government TV 034 figures
Assuming 0.2 kwhrs /km, Typical figure for a Leaf , more like 0.3 for those that an afford a Tesla.
30 billion divided by 5, divided by 8760 gives very close to 700 megawatts.
This is 24/7 i.e.Base load. Given that many people will not want to charge their vehicles in the middle of the night , this will
put greater pressure on the grid at already heavily loaded times. I've worked with the power industry for 17 years and unless things have improved greatly, the prospect for finding an extra 700 megawatts base load over the next 5-8 years will cause nightmares.

kingdragonfly
5117 posts

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  #2085167 6-Sep-2018 18:24
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While you have obviously have more experience than I do, people usually drive their cars to work in the morning, and come home in the evening.

Perhaps I'm incorrect, but I assume that plants are almost idle from 10 pm to 6 am.

If people are given an incentive to use electricity off-peak, by charging a reduced rate, they'll be happy to do it. A "dumb" timer is not exactly an expensive piece of equipment, and a smart charger could be turned on/off by the power company, for those willing to pay less.

Also it's not unusual for urban drivers to use charge every few days, as they don't completely drain their batteries daily. I know in London, some EV drivers plug in about once every 3 days.

https://qz.com/1241938/ups-has-found-a-way-to-plug-in-its-electric-fleet-without-blowing-up-londons-grid/

UPS has found a way to plug in its electric fleet without blowing up London’s grid

UPS is going electric in London. The delivery company has flicked on a charging system for all 170 of its electric trucks operating in the city without overloading the grid. The multi-site system—which UPS calls the first of its kind to be implemented at scale—uses on-site batteries and smart-grid software to time recharging from utilities so that it occurs when demand is low.

That may not sound like a big deal but it’s the latest milestone in the mass integration of plug-in electric vehicles. City’s electrical grids were not designed for simultaneous charging of thousands (or millions) of EVs; that would threaten grid stability and wear out expensive infrastructure far faster than normal.

To solve that, utilities are working with manufacturers to develop vehicle chargers that adjust energy consumption based on the available electric supply on the grid. The technology is still evolving, but any implemented system is likely to have a few components:

* software that allows vehicles to charge when the grid has plenty of power, and to return power to the grid when the grid is low

* batteries that give charging stations their own energy reserves while allowing it to tap into the grid during off-peak hours

* local generation including solar and other alternative energy sources

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