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driller2000
808 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2085176 6-Sep-2018 19:10
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frednz:

 

What your spreadsheet shows is that, when the cost of the petrol car (ICE) and the electric vehicle (EV) are almost the same, the depreciation will also be similar. Therefore, in these circumstances, it’s most likely that the cost of owning the EV will be less than that of the ICE, because of savings on fuel costs.

 

But, in my example, where the cost of the NZ-New Kona 64 kWh EV ($82,000) is $40,000 more than the cost of the equivalent ICE Kona ($42,000), then the extra depreciation (over a 3-year period) on the EV of nearly $17,000 is likely to be at least double the amount of fuel savings from owning the EV over that period.

 

Just one other point about your spreadsheet, I notice that the average electricity costs that you factored in over the 5-year period are 19 cents per kWh. However, if you buy an expensive long-range EV, it’s possible that quite a lot of your charging may be at a fast ChargeNet DC charger. So, instead of paying 19 cents per kWh, you could expect to pay up to 62 cents per kWh when you are charging your EV away from home. If this is factored in to your spreadsheet, the fuel savings from owning the EV might not be as large as stated, particularly when you often use fast DC charging.

 

 

Yes No Maybe? As several variables can effect the outcome as you have noted - including:

 

     

  1. Cost of fuel vs cost of power - ie. which will increase more?
  2. Average distance travelled?
  3. Where you charge? A Chargenet charger VS. At home at night? (Which is what I would be doing 95% of the time - so my power cost is correct for my use case.)
  4. Home PV and Batteries? And what happens to the economics when household PV and battery storage becomes common and charging is "free"? (I appreciate their is a capex cost of install - but this is reducing as well.)
  5. Resale Value - FYI - depreciation I treated more as resale value - not the usual tax definition. So as a result I don't believe they will be the same rate for all vehicles - as resale varies significantly between different vehicles depending on the buyers perception of value. And I fully expect within a decade or 2 ICE resale values will crash as they become less attractive and EV's resale will hold in comparison. 

 

 

 

Hence why the original sheet maker would have made all of these fields are changeable.

 

 

 

So yeah for some cases EV's won't stack up - and for some, like mine ($70k car's - doing 500km/week - charged at home - with different resale values) - they will.

 

 

 

 


wellygary
4999 posts

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  #2085190 6-Sep-2018 19:23
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Clawhammer: the prospect for finding an extra 700 megawatts base load over the next 5-8 years will cause nightmares.

 

 

How about over the next 20 or 30 years ? because realistically thats the earliest the NZ light fleet will become fully electric...

 
 
 
 


frednz
1434 posts

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  #2085211 6-Sep-2018 20:27
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driller2000:

 

So yeah for some cases EV's won't stack up - and for some, like mine ($70k car's - doing 500km/week - charged at home - with different resale values) - they will.

 

 

I agree, ownership of an EV vs an ICE vehicle has many variables and the final conclusion depends on the individual circumstances of the buyer and the particular vehicles being compared.

 

At present, the gap between the price of a NZ-New EV and the "equivalent" new petrol vehicle can be quite high (as illustrated by the Hyundai Kona ICE vs the Kona 64 kWh EV), but when the cost of a new EV is much the same as the cost of an equivalent new petrol vehicle, then EVs will probably be a lot more popular than they are now.

 

Incidentally, I see on Facebook that an interesting discussion has started (initiated by Brett Zimmerman) about owning older EVs and whether these should be bought in preference to petrol vehicles:

 

"So lets talk long term viability and depreciation of EVs,
Hypothetically Nissan Leaf 2011 Model SOH 50% 200,000ks,
Worth buying?? Whats it worth?

 

How about when these cars for example hit 10 years old, How much will it be worth and what sort of resale will it have when it is say 12 years old?

 

A 10 year old car is just falling into the affordability bracket for a lot of the country its why we have an aging car fleet."        

 

 


gzt

gzt
11675 posts

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  #2085262 6-Sep-2018 21:41
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MikeAqua: Agree - fleet replacement is pretty slow in NZ.

Our light vehicle fleet has an average age of 14.4 years and it's getting higher.


NZ's Current light vehicle fleet size is about 3.5 million.  To put that in context Nissan has made in total about 350,000 leaves.  There currently isn't the production capacity to suddenly convert even a big chunk of NZ's fleet to EVs. 


Even if EV's were as cheap as ICEVs and performed better in all respects, it would still take decades.

Nissan will begin production of Leaf in USA this year. Production of a leaf based car begins in China this year. This will free capacity in Japan for more RHD. Plenty of other choices as well. NZ fleet replacement agree will be slow. The point of the exercise is co2 reduction so replace vehicles doing near the max daily range first.

To a large extent I would favor zero or low purchase subsidy and instead give rebated electricity for charging purposes for those vehicles for a period. If it's charging off peak it's all renewable for direct co2 replacement and accountable. That can work directly for some users with traceability, can work as a rebate against miles driven for anyone.

Do the miles with a subsidy per mile is directly related to co2 saved. As the cars get cheaper knock it back.




gzt

gzt
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  #2085266 6-Sep-2018 21:55
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Clawhammer: I have a fairly simple approach to calculations.
light petrol vehicles travelled 30 billion kms in 2016, government TV 034 figures
Assuming 0.2 kwhrs /km, Typical figure for a Leaf , more like 0.3 for those that an afford a Tesla.
30 billion divided by 5, divided by 8760 gives very close to 700 megawatts.
This is 24/7 i.e.Base load. Given that many people will not want to charge their vehicles in the middle of the night , this will
put greater pressure on the grid at already heavily loaded times. I've worked with the power industry for 17 years and unless things have improved greatly, the prospect for finding an extra 700 megawatts base load over the next 5-8 years will cause nightmares.

Regardless needs to be off peak ideally. Infrastructure investment is required in any case, and for co2 reduction. There's no way we get anywhere near full fleet replacement in that period anyway.

driller2000
808 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2085283 6-Sep-2018 22:51
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frednz:

 

driller2000:

 

So yeah for some cases EV's won't stack up - and for some, like mine ($70k car's - doing 500km/week - charged at home - with different resale values) - they will.

 

 

I agree, ownership of an EV vs an ICE vehicle has many variables and the final conclusion depends on the individual circumstances of the buyer and the particular vehicles being compared.

 

At present, the gap between the price of a NZ-New EV and the "equivalent" new petrol vehicle can be quite high (as illustrated by the Hyundai Kona ICE vs the Kona 64 kWh EV), but when the cost of a new EV is much the same as the cost of an equivalent new petrol vehicle, then EVs will probably be a lot more popular than they are now.

 

Incidentally, I see on Facebook that an interesting discussion has started (initiated by Brett Zimmerman) about owning older EVs and whether these should be bought in preference to petrol vehicles:

 

"So lets talk long term viability and depreciation of EVs,
Hypothetically Nissan Leaf 2011 Model SOH 50% 200,000ks,
Worth buying?? Whats it worth?

 

How about when these cars for example hit 10 years old, How much will it be worth and what sort of resale will it have when it is say 12 years old?

 

A 10 year old car is just falling into the affordability bracket for a lot of the country its why we have an aging car fleet."        

 

 

Yep a mate and his wife now have a 2nd hand leaf each - they love them - and it is perfect for their general use case.

 

Albeit i winced at the idea of them driving from Wellington to Akl a few weeks back - with like 6 or so stops to recharge? Nope. 

 

But a 2nd hand Model 3 in 6 or so years time - well that's a different story : )


Bobdn
222 posts

Master Geek


  #2085286 6-Sep-2018 23:21
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The previous Govt had a target of 64,000 EVs by 2021. With around 7,000 EVs now (happy to be corrected), that target will be difficult to meet.  Anyone wish to hazard a guess when we'll get there?  I'm thinking not until after 2025.  170,000 new and NZ new cars are still flooding into NZ each year.  A brand new 2018 Corolla will be on our roads for the next 14 years at least, and New Zealanders love their Corollas.  At least some are hybrids I guess.   

 

 


 
 
 
 


SaltyNZ
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  #2085311 7-Sep-2018 07:32
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gzt:

To a large extent I would favor zero or low purchase subsidy and instead give rebated electricity for charging purposes for those vehicles for a period.

 

 

 

I see what you're getting at but it would be difficult to implement in practice. A feebate is transacted at the time you first register the vehicle. Simple to implement, and very difficult to dodge unless you plan on driving an unregistered vehicle. This scheme involves measuring the electricity used to recharge the vehicles. How do you do that? Rebate me for all electricity between 11pm and 7am? (That's what Mercury does, as it happens). What's to stop me plugging in my dryer, and heat pump and whatever else and running them full bore all night? Do I need to install a dedicated circuit with its own meter? I could still run my dryer off that circuit.

 

An electricity rebate is easily cheated, even if I go to the trouble of spending up front to provide an ostensibly dedicated circuit to do it on.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


kingdragonfly
5103 posts

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  #2085346 7-Sep-2018 09:15
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Am I right in that the New Zealand government just killed the only incentive for private individuals to get EV's?

I know there's grants for businesses, but this one, which was very limited anyhow, has been killed.

Hey, NZTA, are you trying to kill EV's?

http://autotalk.co.nz/news/ev-auckland-bypass-lanes-trial-ends

"EV Auckland bypass lanes trial ends"

by Geoff Dobson

"Electric vehicles will no longer be able to use priority motorway onramp lanes in Auckland from midnight on September 7.

The NZ Transport Agency introduced a bylaw a year ago allowing EVs to use 11 priority bypass lanes on state highways in Auckland for a 12-month trial.

This bylaw, designed to test whether access to priority lanes might encourage EV uptake, expires on September 7.

The move follows an NZTA survey of 232 Auckland EV owners which showed the priority lanes were not a significant factor in their decision to buy an EV, despite the priority lanes being one of the many benefits in having an EV."

SaltyNZ
5476 posts

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  #2085348 7-Sep-2018 09:26
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kingdragonfly:

 

Am I right in that the New Zealand government just killed the only incentive for private individuals to get EV's?

 

 

 

Since I bought my EV in January, I have made use of EV lanes maaaybe twice. And I think one of those times there were other people in the car so I could've used the lane anyway as a normal transit lane. Now, if you mean the cool 'EV' sticker to put on the back of your car, then yes, this now makes you a member of a very exclusive club. Enjoy.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


NzBeagle
907 posts

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  #2085350 7-Sep-2018 09:31
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Priority Lanes should be encouraging car pooling, but does it do that? Perhaps just ditch them altogether, save on the policing of the lanes to focus on other things? I definitely don't see how they should be a perk for EVs though.


trig42
5045 posts

Uber Geek


  #2085356 7-Sep-2018 09:39
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kingdragonfly: Am I right in that the New Zealand government just killed the only incentive for private individuals to get EV's?

I know there's grants for businesses, but this one, which was very limited anyhow, has been killed.

Hey, NZTA, are you trying to kill EV's?

http://autotalk.co.nz/news/ev-auckland-bypass-lanes-trial-ends

"EV Auckland bypass lanes trial ends"

by Geoff Dobson

"Electric vehicles will no longer be able to use priority motorway onramp lanes in Auckland from midnight on September 7.

The NZ Transport Agency introduced a bylaw a year ago allowing EVs to use 11 priority bypass lanes on state highways in Auckland for a 12-month trial.

This bylaw, designed to test whether access to priority lanes might encourage EV uptake, expires on September 7.

The move follows an NZTA survey of 232 Auckland EV owners which showed the priority lanes were not a significant factor in their decision to buy an EV, despite the priority lanes being one of the many benefits in having an EV."

 

There were only 11 lanes, and I used a couple of them regularly. I saw more Tradies and single occupant ICE vehicles using them than EVs anyway. In fact, I could count on one had the amount of times I've seen an EV use a bus/transit lane to get on the motorway. I don't think removing them will be a disincentive to buying an EV.

 

Like everything on our roads, small things like this are not enforced, so no-one bother following the rules (ride as a passenger in a vehicle down the motorway any day and see how many drivers are on their phones).


gzt

gzt
11675 posts

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  #2085946 7-Sep-2018 23:02
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SaltyNZ:

gzt:

To a large extent I would favor zero or low purchase subsidy and instead give rebated electricity for charging purposes for those vehicles for a period.


 


I see what you're getting at but it would be difficult to implement in practice. A feebate is transacted at the time you first register the vehicle. Simple to implement, and very difficult to dodge unless you plan on driving an unregistered vehicle. This scheme involves measuring the electricity used to recharge the vehicles. How do you do that? Rebate me for all electricity between 11pm and 7am? (That's what Mercury does, as it happens). What's to stop me plugging in my dryer, and heat pump and whatever else and running them full bore all night? Do I need to install a dedicated circuit with its own meter? I could still run my dryer off that circuit.


An electricity rebate is easily cheated, even if I go to the trouble of spending up front to provide an ostensibly dedicated circuit to do it on.


Don't need to. Use the odometer and give a fixed rebate per km. Don't even need to know where it is charged how much electricity it used or who paid for it. It doesn't matter. Works the same for secondhand.

Edit: ok bad idea forgot it needs to be off peak for renewable..

afe66
2464 posts

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  #2086183 8-Sep-2018 19:42
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What's this New Zealand EV incentive you talk of ?
It was in Auckland wasn't it?

I seriously doubt _anyone_ would have bought an event for the benefit of driving in those lanes...

kingdragonfly
5103 posts

Uber Geek


  #2086196 8-Sep-2018 20:12
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"Mercedes new Tesla beater -
all you need to know about the EQC electric SUV"
by carwow



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