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Aredwood
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  #2145121 13-Dec-2018 23:15
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alasta:

WyleECoyoteNZ:


Given the rise and rise in popularity of EV's you would wouldn't expect rampant depreciation, but it will be interesting to see what happens with these luxury mid sized SUV's (Jaguar I Pace & Audi e-Tron) from the main players.



High demand for used EVs may well keep their price close to that of their new counterparts, however it seems likely that new ones are going to decrease in price during the next five years. There is also the impact of any upcoming government subsidies. 


I personally see a lot of depreciation risk around EVs and wouldn't buy one until there is a bit more certainty around how the pricing is going to trend over the next few years. 



There would be less deprecation risk in buying a brand new EV, compared to some types of ICE cars. As the lower running costs offset a lot of the deprecation risk.

As an example, compare ICE Utes to sedans. At almost any age bracket, the Ute will be worth more than a sedan with a similar distance travelled, overall condition etc.

My advice to anyone who is considering buying A new or near new ICE vehicle- Buy a diesel Ute, Van, or SUV. Or if you have to get a hatchback- Buy a hybrid. As such vehicles will be needed by people who tow caravans, boats etc long distance. And it will be ages before an EV becomes available which can do that. Let alone one that costs less than $100K. Hybrid- people who do lots of long distance driving, taxi / uber drivers etc. If you don't want a diesel or hybrid, get a high performance petrol turbo car. As you will always have the boy racer market to sell into.


A new or near new ICE sedan, hatchback etc would be about the worst choice. As buyers of them in the secondhand market are very price sensitive. And that market has large subgroups, those who will happily pay heaps more upfront as long as running cost savings justify the high purchase price. And those who are on very low incomes, where paying more is simply not an option.

EV hatchbacks, sedans are already available both new and secondhand. With lots more models planned and available soon. Ice vehicles in that segment will be hardest hit by depreciation.





SaltyNZ
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  #2145158 14-Dec-2018 07:49
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wellygary:

 

frednz:

 

 When we have a Suzuki Swift sized EV with a range of 250km and a NZ-new price of less than $30,000, then things might start happening.

 

 

We are probably 5 years away from that...

 

The nearest today is a Chinese BAIC, at $NZD 40K, with a 160km range (22kwh) battery

 

Imported leafs making up the bulk of our EV fleet is gonna be with us for a while yet...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not quite apples to apples though. Those things have tiny motors; the EC200 with 22kWh battery has a 36kW motor. A 1.2L Swift has 61kW and it doesn't have to lug 250kg of battery around with it.

 

I'm already an EV owner and I certainly think we need more of them on the road, but the BAICs are not exactly the kind of car that would make people want to switch.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


 
 
 
 


wellygary
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  #2145183 14-Dec-2018 09:20
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SaltyNZ:

 

wellygary:

 

frednz:

 

 When we have a Suzuki Swift sized EV with a range of 250km and a NZ-new price of less than $30,000, then things might start happening.

 

 

We are probably 5 years away from that...

 

The nearest today is a Chinese BAIC, at $NZD 40K, with a 160km range (22kwh) battery

 

Imported leafs making up the bulk of our EV fleet is gonna be with us for a while yet...

 

 

Not quite apples to apples though. Those things have tiny motors; the EC200 with 22kWh battery has a 36kW motor. A 1.2L Swift has 61kW and it doesn't have to lug 250kg of battery around with it.

 

I'm already an EV owner and I certainly think we need more of them on the road, but the BAICs are not exactly the kind of car that would make people want to switch.

 

That was partially my point, there is currently nothing anywhere near the specs the OP is wanting.... the BIAC is pretty much the cheapest 4 door, EV with any realistic range, but yes its still seriously underpowered compared to a more expensive EV...


Linuxluver

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  #2145657 15-Dec-2018 09:10
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Aredwood:

 

....

There would be less deprecation risk in buying a brand new EV, compared to some types of ICE cars. As the lower running costs offset a lot of the deprecation risk.

As an example, compare ICE Utes to sedans. At almost any age bracket, the Ute will be worth more than a sedan with a similar distance travelled, overall condition etc.

My advice to anyone who is considering buying A new or near new ICE vehicle- Buy a diesel Ute, Van, or SUV. Or if you have to get a hatchback- Buy a hybrid. As such vehicles will be needed by people who tow caravans, boats etc long distance. And it will be ages before an EV becomes available which can do that. Let alone one that costs less than $100K. Hybrid- people who do lots of long distance driving, taxi / uber drivers etc. If you don't want a diesel or hybrid, get a high performance petrol turbo car. As you will always have the boy racer market to sell into.



Tax changes on vehicles expected sometimes in February may make buying a big ute a bad idea. They will likely be hit with higher taxes reflecting their larger emissions profile.

I half-filled a rented Mitsi Cross (thing) with 91 yesterday and it was $70. My wife's work rented it for her for a week. For that amount of money in home electricity my LEAF would get ( $70 / $0.12 kWh x 6km) about 3,500km of driving at 6km per kWh (highway) or  4,666km at 8km/kWh in the city. The Mitsi might get 300-400km for it's half tank?

What does a ute get if run on petrol? Deisel would be cheaper than petrol for the fuel, but the RUC would push that up again. ......and there are the emissions, which some people are happy to ignore but their kids and theirs won't have that luxury.





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GV27
2390 posts

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  #2145665 15-Dec-2018 09:21
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Linuxluver:

 

Tax changes on vehicles expected sometimes in February may make buying a big ute a bad idea. They will likely be hit with higher taxes reflecting their larger emissions profile.

I half-filled a rented Mitsi Cross (thing) with 91 yesterday and it was $70. My wife's work rented it for her for a week. For that amount of money in home electricity my LEAF would get ( $70 / $0.12 kWh x 6km) about 3,500km of driving at 6km per kWh (highway) or  4,666km at 8km/kWh in the city. The Mitsi might get 300-400km for it's half tank?

What does a ute get if run on petrol? Deisel would be cheaper than petrol for the fuel, but the RUC would push that up again. ......and there are the emissions, which some people are happy to ignore but their kids and theirs won't have that luxury.

 

 

How good is your Leaf at hauling tools or around development/building sites? If you want to compare costs, compare capabilities. Your EV is also paying no RUC yet either. 

 

The Government has just rejected ACC levies being segmented by vehicle safety data on the basis of equity; if you want people who buy petrol/diesel utes to subsidise people buying Teslas despite there being literally no electric utes an alternative then you're going to have to expect those costs to be passed on. 


kingdragonfly
5119 posts

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  #2145870 15-Dec-2018 17:22
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His Chinese Electric Car. Beijing BAIC EV160


kingdragonfly
5119 posts

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  #2145885 15-Dec-2018 17:59
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From Australia

https://smallcaps.com.au/china-powers-global-electric-vehicle-supremacy/

"...
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China almost doubled the production and sales of alternative fuel vehicles in the first seven months of 2018, compared to the same period last year.

With production of electric cars in China increasing 85% while sales have rose by 97%, according to a CAAM representative speaking at a press conference last week.

CAAM officials confirmed that in total, China produced 504,000 “eco-friendly” cars, which include both EVs and other non-petrol variants in the first six months of 2018.

This is compared to approximately 375,000 EVs manufactured by Chinese manufacturers merely two years ago in 2016.

China’s annual production rate has almost doubled, with analysts confident that future annual growth could reach even higher multiples – rather reminiscent of everything China does on the international stage including its rambunctious 7% annual GDP growth rate.

From the cars produced, Chinese manufacturers sold 496,000 (98.4%) indicating a high rate of demand for EVs and potentially significant future capacity as electric cars become more widely adopted by China’s 1 billion-plus inhabitants.

Compared to petrol-powered vehicles, EVs still make up a rather small share of overall car sales, but this trend is changing fast.
..."


 
 
 
 


kingdragonfly
5119 posts

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  #2146018 16-Dec-2018 10:20
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Can Dyson Reinvent The Electric Car?
Answers With Joe


Rikkitic
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  #2146079 16-Dec-2018 12:24
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kingdragonfly: Can Dyson Reinvent The Electric Car?
Answers With Joe

 

Thank you for introducing me to Joe. I have become an instant addict.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


MikeAqua
6059 posts

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  #2146477 17-Dec-2018 10:42
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EBW ferries in Welly have announced a $4m all electric ferry, to ply Wellington Harbour.  On a calm day, it's expected to get three return runs for each one hour charge.  The design is an Ultra-light, low drag catamaran that will slice through the water.  These shapes are very common on commuter ferries, but usually in more sheltered waters - e.g. Sydney harbour, Brisbane River

 

I'll be interested to see how carbon fibre goes on a commuter ferry in Wellington.  Carbon fibre is light and strong, but also brittle if subjected to a single point impact.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/109397200/new-zealands-first-fullyelectric-ferry 





Mike


Linuxluver

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  #2146794 18-Dec-2018 00:36
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GV27:

How good is your Leaf at hauling tools or around development/building sites? If you want to compare costs, compare capabilities. Your EV is also paying no RUC yet either. 


The Government has just rejected ACC levies being segmented by vehicle safety data on the basis of equity; if you want people who buy petrol/diesel utes to subsidise people buying Teslas despite there being literally no electric utes an alternative then you're going to have to expect those costs to be passed on. 



I totally agree the lack of EV utes is a big issue today. We also have no conversion industry to speak of that could bridge the gap.

I also agree it makes no sense to tax something when there is no alternative. Much better to invest in an alternative.

I'm leaving toward the government backing a local option, either new or converted. Otherwise we're all at the mercy of auto makers who are very deliberately not making EV utes and vans.





_____________________________________________________________________
If you order a Tesla, click my referral code below to order your car and get free stuff. 

 

My Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/steve52356


SaltyNZ
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  #2146811 18-Dec-2018 07:03
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Linuxluver:
GV27:

 

How good is your Leaf at hauling tools or around development/building sites? If you want to compare costs, compare capabilities. Your EV is also paying no RUC yet either. 

 

 

 

The Government has just rejected ACC levies being segmented by vehicle safety data on the basis of equity; if you want people who buy petrol/diesel utes to subsidise people buying Teslas despite there being literally no electric utes an alternative then you're going to have to expect those costs to be passed on. 

 



I totally agree the lack of EV utes is a big issue today. We also have no conversion industry to speak of that could bridge the gap.

I also agree it makes no sense to tax something when there is no alternative. Much better to invest in an alternative.

I'm leaving toward the government backing a local option, either new or converted. Otherwise we're all at the mercy of auto makers who are very deliberately not making EV utes and vans.

 

 

 

It's a problem that needs to be solved eventually, but off-hand I can already think of two which are planned to be on the market within 12-24 months. There is also the eNV-2000 which has already been around for quite some time. Indeed, the second time I ever used a public fast charger, an electrician was already there charging his van.

 

But I agree, more options would be welcome.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


GV27
2390 posts

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  #2146817 18-Dec-2018 07:44
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VW's much-announced id line is real, and Fully Charged have tested it:

 

http://www.fullychargedshow.co.uk/electric-cars/2018/12/17/vw-id-test-car-exclusive-drive

 

Absolute game-changer if this is something they can pull off for close-to ICE pricing. That 300km EV Swift doesn't sound so far-fetched after all. 

 

I hope BMW is taking note, because all the announcements and discussion I've seen around the EV Mini have been kind of underwhelming. This, on the other hand, is a massive leap forward. 


tdgeek
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  #2146818 18-Dec-2018 07:56
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GV27:

 

VW's much-announced id line is real, and Fully Charged have tested it:

 

http://www.fullychargedshow.co.uk/electric-cars/2018/12/17/vw-id-test-car-exclusive-drive

 

Absolute game-changer if this is something they can pull off for close-to ICE pricing. That 300km EV Swift doesn't sound so far-fetched after all. 

 

I hope BMW is taking note, because all the announcements and discussion I've seen around the EV Mini have been kind of underwhelming. This, on the other hand, is a massive leap forward. 

 

 

Very impressive, and left and right hand drive. They conclude it has arrived late, but strong. IMHO, the EV industry has not started yet, it is very niche volume wise, charging networks are now well on the way, so its not late to the market as there is to all intents and purposes, no market. A car like this, and price, will force others down, that's when the industry will kickstart big time. The R+D recovery will need to be less per car and rely on volume.


GV27
2390 posts

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  #2146960 18-Dec-2018 10:51
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