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GV27
2389 posts

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  #2210807 4-Apr-2019 15:30
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Aredwood:

 

Yet there have been countless oil spills and other major pollution incidents. Which have caused major direct environmental damage and direct deaths. Yet they dont ever get punished anywhere near as much as what Volkswagen did.

 

Are you sure about this? Last time I checked the Deepwater fine was enormous.

 

Either way, at least VW know they have to be serious about EVs and not just seen to be serious. Holding out hope for the Id Neo et al. 


DS248
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  #2212789 8-Apr-2019 12:57
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Have not seen this posted here

 

Electric vehicles accounted for 58.4% of all vehicle sales in Norway in March.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/04/world/norway-zero-emission-vehicles-trnd/index.html

 

 

 

A significant turning point?

 

Reflecting on this, once EV sales dominate for a few years petrol retail distribution is going to be significantly impacted.  Will increasing distances between petrol retail outlets start acting as a further driver for the shift to EV's. 

 

In the longer term, once EV's start reaching 60%+ of the car fleet obtaining fuel for the remaining ICE vehicles will become an issue as the costs of petrol distribution are a lot higher than providing charging stations for EV's; eg. existing petrol stations (tanks, bowsers, fuel delivers etc vs a charging point in a supermarket car park or charging point at home or work - order of magnitude difference)


 
 
 
 


wellygary
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  #2212823 8-Apr-2019 13:43
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DS248:

 

Electric vehicles accounted for 58.4% of all vehicle sales in Norway in March.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/04/world/norway-zero-emission-vehicles-trnd/index.html

 

A significant turning point?

 

 

It was basically driven by Telsa starting deliveries of model 3 "reservations" in Europe.. more than 25% of all cars registered in March in Norway were Model 3s,   this is unlikely to be sustained in the long term..   for all of 2018, the EV share of new vehicles was around 30%....

 

But Even in Norway the EV fleet is still only 7% of the total light car fleet (195,000 out of 2.8 million cars)


kingdragonfly
5108 posts

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  #2213234 8-Apr-2019 20:06
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A Look Inside The Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt, and BMW i3
18 minute video
Jalopnik

"Are you curious how EVs work? We sure as hell are, so we found a Tesla Model 3 and two other EVs all taken totally apart, so we could take a really, really deep dive into how these cars work, from batteries to bodies to motors. Empty your brain out, because we're gonna cram a lot in."


DS248
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  #2213303 8-Apr-2019 22:21
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wellygary:

 

DS248: Electric vehicles accounted for 58.4% of all vehicle sales in Norway in March.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/04/world/norway-zero-emission-vehicles-trnd/index.html

 

A significant turning point? 

 

It was basically driven by Telsa starting deliveries of model 3 "reservations" in Europe.. more than 25% of all cars registered in March in Norway were Model 3s,   this is unlikely to be sustained in the long term..   for all of 2018, the EV share of new vehicles was around 30%....

 

But Even in Norway the EV fleet is still only 7% of the total light car fleet (195,000 out of 2.8 million cars) 

 

 

 

Of course it will take time for the EV proportion of the total fleet to build up.

 

Even if say 22% of the ~25% Tesla model 3's were 'back log', it still leaves EV's as (58% - 22%)/ (100% - 22%) = 46% of new car sales in March.

 

Note also the estimate of EV's being ~50% of total car sales for 2019 (at the end of the article).  And if only 30% for the first three months, will need to be above 50% for the remaining 9 months.


DS248
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  #2213309 8-Apr-2019 22:53
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wellygary: ...  for all of 2018, the EV share of new vehicles was around 30% ...

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-norway-insight/from-california-to-oslo-foreign-subsidies-fuel-norways-e-car-boom-for-now-idUSKCN1R20HN

 

" ... Last year, plug-in electric cars accounted for 31.2 percent of new car registrations in Norway, the highest in the world, and the share rose to 34.2 percent when including second-hand imports, according to the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV). The two figures surged to 40.7 and 43.5 percent in February 2019."  Mandated to be 100% by 2025 anyway.


Aredwood
3885 posts

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  #2213311 8-Apr-2019 23:14
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DS248:

Reflecting on this, once EV sales dominate for a few years petrol retail distribution is going to be significantly impacted.  Will increasing distances between petrol retail outlets start acting as a further driver for the shift to EV's. 


In the longer term, once EV's start reaching 60%+ of the car fleet obtaining fuel for the remaining ICE vehicles will become an issue as the costs of petrol distribution are a lot higher than providing charging stations for EV's; eg. existing petrol stations (tanks, bowsers, fuel delivers etc vs a charging point in a supermarket car park or charging point at home or work - order of magnitude difference)



A similar thing has already happened. Just look at the disappearance of automotive LPG filling stations. If you happen to own a car that can only use LPG, Could you still drive it from say Auckland to Dunedin. Without the risk of being stranded due to not being able to get to a filling station? While the remaining filling stations will most likely disappear when their tanks become due for their 10 year hydrostatic test and recertification.

As for Petrol stations. 95 / 98 will be the first to disappear. As there will be a point, at which lower sales volumes can no longer be offset by simply making fewer deliveries to each petrol station. Because the petrol would expire in the tank before it could be sold. And when the tanks require replacement/ upgrading. There would also be a point, where the extra money required to provide 3 tanks and 3 of everything else. Would not bring in enough extra income to justify the upfront investment and extra ongoing fixed costs. Vs simply not selling 95 / 98. And since someone who needs 95 / 98 would just go to a different petrol station that still sells it. The oil company would still get at least some of the 95 / 98 sales that they would otherwise have received. (only it would be via a different branch).

And eventually 91 petrol would also disappear. As motorbikes are about the only application left, that cant also be done with either EVs or diesel. While there are lots of things that diesel is used for, where no practical EV alternative is available. So the suburban petrol station would become a diesel (only) station. Unless it also has EV chargers as well.





 
 
 
 


tripper1000
1248 posts

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  #2213442 9-Apr-2019 11:39
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Gas station won't vanish, but will slowly change flavour. Gas stations get a major renovation every 10-15 years so what will happen is those in key locations will progressively replace petrol pumps with DC fast chargers as demand changes.

 

BP and Shell in Europe and the UK are already preparing for this, each having bought the largest charge networks in the UK and Europe respectively.

 

Eventually petrol will be available from a single pump, relegated to the corner with the air pump pump and car wash and eventually disappear without anyone noticing. As pointed out, LPG is going/gone this way and before that Kerosene, and motor oil bowsers without anyone really noticing, so it's the same old deal, but a different day. 

 

Retailing multiple grades of petrol is becoming less expensive in terms of infrastructure and delivery. It is common in the USA, and is slowing catching on here, to stock only two grades (eg 91 and 98) and blend it on site to make the in between ratings (95/96). I'm not so certain 91 will be last surviving octane. Higher and higher efficiency is being mandated all the time and one of the routes to thermal efficiency is higher compression which requires higher octane. Also, high octane is 'backwards' compatible with lower octane motors, but not the reverse, so it's universal nature may see 98 outlive the low grades.


SaltyNZ
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  #2213447 9-Apr-2019 11:47
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tripper1000:

Gas station won't vanish, but will slowly change flavour.

 

 

Local stations will greatly reduce in numbers. When you can refill your car by plugging into a powerpoint overnight, you don't need to visit the station down the road. There will still be a place for some - because sometimes you will need a fast charge while out and about in town - but there won't be anything like the requirement that there currently is.

 

 

Trunk route stations will stay and change flavour to become charging points. The way I see it happening is that the car parks around the food courts will have access to medium speed chargers (e.g. in the 50kW range) which will be free to use on the expectation you're buying lunch there.

 

 

The fuel forecourt will be given over to the high speed chargers (e.g. 150kW) which you will pay to use if you're in a real hurry.




iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


kingdragonfly
5108 posts

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  #2213455 9-Apr-2019 12:01
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https://www.driven.co.nz/news/news/uk-company-reveals-roadside-solar-powered-service-station-plans/

UK company reveals roadside solar powered service station plans
By Joe Pinkstone

Petrol stations may soon be replaced with solar-powered forecourts fitted with 24 charging spaces where vehicles can top up their batteries.

More than 100 are planned alongside busy roads and will let most electric and hybrid vehicles fully charge in less than 30 minutes.

Some smaller cars with high-speed charging can be fully topped up in just ten minutes, developers claim.

'Airport-style' lounges will be built as part of the £1 billion ($1.93 billion NZD) project, to provide travellers with shops, toilets and cafes to pass the time as their cars refuel.

Gridserve, a British firm based in Buckinghamshire, is behind the scheme and says more than 80 sites have already been confirmed, with more in the pipeline.
...

wellygary
4999 posts

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  #2213720 9-Apr-2019 15:56
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NZ EV Fleet stats for March are out, and to be honest they are pretty flat, total fleet size is now 13,100

 

Fleet additions are pretty much stuck around 500 a month, (roughly the same level they have been at since 18Q2) and 2nd Hand Leafs still dominate.

 

We've been promised action on EVs by a transformational government but the most recent initiative is a spreadsheet that ranks Government departments by their vehicle emissions https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/tracking-government-fleet-vehicle-emissions

 

 

 

 


PolicyGuy
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  #2213745 9-Apr-2019 17:53
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The National government promised that 30% of government agency vehicles would be EVs by 2025 IIRC, although it wasn't clear whether this meant that 30% of agency car-type vehicle purchases in 2025 would be EVs, or that the fleet would be 30% EVs by 2025. The former doesn't sound too difficult, but the latter would require agencies to be buying non-trivial numbers of EVs this year.

 

Anyone know where this sits in the current government's priority list?
Maybe I should write to James Shaw?

 

One of the big impacts will be the need to install at least slow chargers in agency car parks and garages to allow vehicles to be charged up overnight. I mentioned this to the Facilities Management folks at my former employing agency (no wonder I got retired 😂) and got the blank stare of incomprehension in return.
Presumably the larger fleet operators will need a couple of fast chargers in their main locations too.
That's a lot of car-park digging up and electrical installation upgrades


tripper1000
1248 posts

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  #2214373 10-Apr-2019 14:00
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Government departments are stuck in the 80's. I have a Colleague who used to work for a large Govt agency and a couple of years ago he got in big trouble for plugging his Mitsubishi MiEV for 30 minutes at his work place of approx 1200 workers. He got told to report to the boss who just didn't get it when my colleague offered them $5 which would have amply covered the cost. He was told to stop being ridiculous when he suggested they needed to look at installing AC charging outlets around the place.


afe66
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  #2214381 10-Apr-2019 14:19
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mm business isnt too hot either to be fair.

 

One of the locations I work at just spent millions of dollars expanding a car parking building.

 

When it was it the design phase, I approached the CEO with a colleague who is familiar EV world (having received awards) about placing some EV charging points for customers. Pointed out costs and grants available to subsidise this.

 

I also mentioned it would be a good PR exercise to go with all the recycling/green posters scattered around. ie offshoot all the concrete. Good for a puff piece in the local paper several months down the track

 

Building is finished at 35k per park and I notice there are a couple of standard 240v wall sockets on the wall near a couple of parks.

 

Contacted the CEO saying great how the power point are there and will signs etc go up offering quick charger for customers.

 

His reply was it wasnt the businesses role to be a car charging site.

 

I pointed out that a car connected to a domestic power point uses very little actual power (especially considering the business would use alot of power).

 

No interested. We are not in business charging EV...

 

 

 

 


wellygary
4999 posts

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  #2214383 10-Apr-2019 14:30
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PolicyGuy:

 

The National government promised that 30% of government agency vehicles would be EVs by 2025 IIRC, although it wasn't clear whether this meant that 30% of agency car-type vehicle purchases in 2025 would be EVs, or that the fleet would be 30% EVs by 2025. The former doesn't sound too difficult, but the latter would require agencies to be buying non-trivial numbers of EVs this year.

 

Anyone know where this sits in the current government's priority list?
Maybe I should write to James Shaw?

 

 

The coalition agreement contains this:

 

"The government’s vehicle fleet, where practicable, to become emissions-free by 2025/26."

 

but I sense a bit of backsliding, as in the most recent pronouncement on Government Vehicle purchases

 

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1904/S00064/new-measure-to-help-lower-emissions-from-government-vehicles.htm

 

contained the following.

 

“By 2025/26, virtually all new light vehicles entering the Government’s fleet should be emissions free,

 

Now while the two statements can be complementary, 

 

(an emissions free fleet by 2025 will mean any new vehicles entering the fleet are also emissions free,)

 

BUT it can also read as saying there may continue to be existing non-EV vehicles in the fleet, and the question then has to be how may non-EVs will be in the fleet in 2025????

 

But for this government 2025 might as well be 2500, as budgets only run for 4 years, so they wont actually have to budget anything to make it happen until well after the next election,

 

 

 

 


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