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Obraik
785 posts

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  #2290459 5-Aug-2019 19:25
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tdgeek:

 

OMG. In your eyes, as a massive fan, there can never ever be negative news. If you what to assume everything will go swimmingly because you want into, thats fine. If you feel that our infrastructure will be built well ahead of demand, thats also fine, doesnt happen anywhere else. . My claims are that its not obvious or clear or easy that it will all go fine, thats all. But fans don't want to think of anything thats not suitable. Thats the theme of this thread.

 

 

Ah yes, the good old dismissive "you're a massive fan so of course you'd say that" argument. Sorry, but that's BS and frankly, rude. Everything I post comes from presentable evidence, it's not some opinion I'm posting "just because". You on the other hand will counter this evidence based simply on your views. IF you could present some kind of proof or evidence around your claims that shows how I'm wrong then I'd happily accept that - every day is a learning opportunity afterall.


tdgeek
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  #2290491 5-Aug-2019 19:57
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

OMG. In your eyes, as a massive fan, there can never ever be negative news. If you what to assume everything will go swimmingly because you want into, thats fine. If you feel that our infrastructure will be built well ahead of demand, thats also fine, doesnt happen anywhere else. . My claims are that its not obvious or clear or easy that it will all go fine, thats all. But fans don't want to think of anything thats not suitable. Thats the theme of this thread.

 

 

Ah yes, the good old dismissive "you're a massive fan so of course you'd say that" argument. Sorry, but that's BS and frankly, rude. Everything I post comes from presentable evidence, it's not some opinion I'm posting "just because". You on the other hand will counter this evidence based simply on your views. IF you could present some kind of proof or evidence around your claims that shows how I'm wrong then I'd happily accept that - every day is a learning opportunity afterall.

 

 

No its not BS and its not rude, its  fact. Everything is perfect in EV world. Everything. Always an answer. Nothing is that perfect. 

 

What presentable evidence? You mean the consented list? Its consented, its not built. You have decreed that it will be built, on time so there is nothing to worry about. The only evidence I can present is that all infraststrucre in this country lags by a huge amount. It always does. Housing, roads, motorways, health, education, everything. NZ always plays catchup.  While we can bleat about all these, power issues are a step up. You present a list , which if I'm not mistaken, all totals up to just cover all our estimated future needs. I think that was in this or another thread. Thats if ALL of it gets built. ALL of it. So you can dismiss all this as bad news that we dont want to hear, in a fan club thread (not everyone here acts as such) then I guess you know more about future NZ infrastructure developement bucking the trend. But that's not presentable evidence is it? 

 

Can you not actually see that you promote EV to the point that its a bit obsessive? I guess not. I favour EV as well ss many other green efforts, but Im not blind to the challenges.   


 
 
 
 


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2290560 5-Aug-2019 20:50
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tdgeek:

 

Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

OMG. In your eyes, as a massive fan, there can never ever be negative news. If you what to assume everything will go swimmingly because you want into, thats fine. If you feel that our infrastructure will be built well ahead of demand, thats also fine, doesnt happen anywhere else. . My claims are that its not obvious or clear or easy that it will all go fine, thats all. But fans don't want to think of anything thats not suitable. Thats the theme of this thread.

 

 

Ah yes, the good old dismissive "you're a massive fan so of course you'd say that" argument. Sorry, but that's BS and frankly, rude. Everything I post comes from presentable evidence, it's not some opinion I'm posting "just because". You on the other hand will counter this evidence based simply on your views. IF you could present some kind of proof or evidence around your claims that shows how I'm wrong then I'd happily accept that - every day is a learning opportunity afterall.

 

 

No its not BS and its not rude, its  fact. Everything is perfect in EV world. Everything. Always an answer. Nothing is that perfect. 

 

What presentable evidence? You mean the consented list? Its consented, its not built. You have decreed that it will be built, on time so there is nothing to worry about. The only evidence I can present is that all infraststrucre in this country lags by a huge amount. It always does. Housing, roads, motorways, health, education, everything. NZ always plays catchup.  While we can bleat about all these, power issues are a step up. You present a list , which if I'm not mistaken, all totals up to just cover all our estimated future needs. I think that was in this or another thread. Thats if ALL of it gets built. ALL of it. So you can dismiss all this as bad news that we dont want to hear, in a fan club thread (not everyone here acts as such) then I guess you know more about future NZ infrastructure developement bucking the trend. But that's not presentable evidence is it? 

 

Can you not actually see that you promote EV to the point that its a bit obsessive? I guess not. I favour EV as well ss many other green efforts, but Im not blind to the challenges.   

 

 

Nothing you have stated is a fact in-regards to this discussion so far. You've posted your opinion, but don't claim that is a fact. Again, you're making a claim that these consented power stations "total up just to cover our estimated needs" - what are those estimated needs? Can you put a value on this and show where you got that value from? I have no problem with bad news or being told I'm wrong but I want to be told how I'm wrong with evidence. Going around making claims without anything to back those claims up is irresponsible at best.

 

I'm obsessive about challenging FUD when it comes to EVs because there's so much of it that is just plain wrong.


tdgeek
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  #2290585 5-Aug-2019 22:16
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Obraik:

 

 

 

Nothing you have stated is a fact in-regards to this discussion so far. You've posted your opinion, but don't claim that is a fact. Again, you're making a claim that these consented power stations "total up just to cover our estimated needs" - what are those estimated needs? Can you put a value on this and show where you got that value from? I have no problem with bad news or being told I'm wrong but I want to be told how I'm wrong with evidence. Going around making claims without anything to back those claims up is irresponsible at best.

 

I'm obsessive about challenging FUD when it comes to EVs because there's so much of it that is just plain wrong.

 

 

You are the one going on about facts. What facts? A list? 

 

You have a problem when people offer up the challenges that are faced. You need to get out of the fan club nd discuss, or setup a fan club thread. You get upset when I offer the challenges of increasing our grid, that's bad news , cannot have that. What are your facts> You give a list of consents. That's BS. Its a list of consents.

 

Now you go on about ""total up just to cover our estimated needs" Look in this or the other green threads Im not wasting my time, its numbers quoted by others. Then, its not hard to add up your "list" to ascertain that all these consents offer just a but more generation that what someone here decided was what we needed. You do have an issue with bad news. Well, its not bad news, its a discussion that may mention the challenges ahead. And you wonder why others here have mentioned every few pages the  "EV evangelists". Although I haven't mentioned that term, although its correct for some here. 

 

 

 

Going around making claims without anything to back those claims up is irresponsible at best.   What is wrong with discussing the issues of future generation? Is that concept too difficult to comprehend? Is it an unfair point? Why are you so upset about a point such as this? You go on about evidence, where is your evidence? The point is about future generation. Will it keep up? Will it be like every other infrastructure in poor NZ that is years behind where it needs to be? Is it so wrong to claim that this is a very possible outcome? Im not the first to offer this point. The other person concluded maybe EV charging restrictions might happen. So you want me to document hard evidence this will happen? Even though its in the future? Yet you offer evidence for the future. 

 

Too fan based to actually get involved in a serious discussion point thats what you have been like all through these threads. Every point that has a negative connotation you get upset and defend. So yeah, great. Sermons belong elsewhere IMHO 


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2290629 6-Aug-2019 00:02
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tdgeek:

 

You are the one going on about facts. What facts? A list?

 

 

Yes. A factual list that shows that the grid will grow. A factual list that is evidence that the grid will grow as the demand grows.

 

 

You have a problem when people offer up the challenges that are faced. You need to get out of the fan club nd discuss, or setup a fan club thread. You get upset when I offer the challenges of increasing our grid, that's bad news , cannot have that. What are your facts> You give a list of consents. That's BS. Its a list of consents.

 

 

I have a problem when your challenge is something you state as if that's the way it is but without actually presenting the why or how. You haven't offered up any challenges around increasing the grid, you've only said that the demand is going to be too high for the grid.

 

 

Now you go on about ""total up just to cover our estimated needs" Look in this or the other green threads Im not wasting my time, its numbers quoted by others. Then, its not hard to add up your "list" to ascertain that all these consents offer just a but more generation that what someone here decided was what we needed. You do have an issue with bad news. Well, its not bad news, its a discussion that may mention the challenges ahead. And you wonder why others here have mentioned every few pages the  "EV evangelists". Although I haven't mentioned that term, although its correct for some here. 

 

 

Nope, it's your argument, it's your obligation to present that evidence if you feel it's valid. Claiming that "I'm not wasting my time" is a cop out. You may not have mentioned the term "EV evangelist" but you've alluded to it with your "fan based" term

 

 

Going around making claims without anything to back those claims up is irresponsible at best.   What is wrong with discussing the issues of future generation? Is that concept too difficult to comprehend? Is it an unfair point? Why are you so upset about a point such as this? You go on about evidence, where is your evidence? The point is about future generation. Will it keep up? Will it be like every other infrastructure in poor NZ that is years behind where it needs to be? Is it so wrong to claim that this is a very possible outcome? Im not the first to offer this point. The other person concluded maybe EV charging restrictions might happen. So you want me to document hard evidence this will happen? Even though its in the future? Yet you offer evidence for the future. 

 

Too fan based to actually get involved in a serious discussion point thats what you have been like all through these threads. Every point that has a negative connotation you get upset and defend. So yeah, great. Sermons belong elsewhere IMHO 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with discussing the topic of future generation, if you were prepared to actually discuss it rather than making vague statements like "these consents offer just a bit more generation than what someone here decided was what we needed". Don't claim something is difficult for me to comprehend when you're not giving me anything. We're not currently years behind in our power generation so why would we assume that we will suddenly fall years behind as we move forward? 

 

It seems you're upset that I'm taking the time to actually counter misinformation. Yes, if you post something that isn't correct I'm going to point that out and I'll usually reference as to why it's wrong. If that bothers you then maybe you shouldn't join in on a forum.


frankv
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  #2290646 6-Aug-2019 06:54
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tdgeek:

 

Thats good, as is anything else electric, but as these things come on stream they are using power that as yet, we dont generate. We can't order more rain. We cant build, another hydro next week, or add 600 wind turbines the week after. I guess we will just burn more FF to make up the extra for these green ideas?

 

 

Combined cycle gas turbines are about 62% efficient at extracting energy from FF and converting it to electricity. This is about twice as efficient as an ICE, so burning FF to make electricity is actually a good thing if it replaces ICEs.

 

 


kingdragonfly
5117 posts

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  #2290668 6-Aug-2019 07:29
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There's a simple truth: big stationary engines are more efficient than small portable engines.

It was true even when steam power was in use a hundred years ago.

If you've ever accidentally touched a car's exhaust manifold, you'll know first hand how much waste heat is being produced.

Most ICE engines operate around 20% efficiency, though 38% has been achieved. What is almost universally ignored is the cost of producing and transporting gasoline and diesel.

Even with air-conditioning / heating, EV operate around 50% efficiency.

Also electrical transmission is very efficient. In the US, efficiency is close to 95%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_energy_efficiency

 
 
 
 


SaltyNZ
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  #2290678 6-Aug-2019 07:55
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kingdragonfly:
If you've ever accidentally touched a car's exhaust manifold, you'll know first hand how much waste heat is being produced.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_energy_efficiency

 

 

 

And conversely, a couple of weeks ago I was talking to my daughter's father about my car when I dropped her off at their place that morning to play with her friend. I'd just driven 20 minutes at 100km/h and the inverter box was still as cold as the garage overnight. That's how efficient modern EVs are.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


tdgeek
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  #2290688 6-Aug-2019 08:41
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Obraik:

 

 

 

Yes. A factual list that shows that the grid will grow. A factual list that is evidence that the grid will grow as the demand grows.

 

 

Hence with this, not even bothering with the rest of your fan based defence

 

Its a factual list of consents. Many are small and local and niche. Some are on hold, but if consents mean a guaranteed build on time, well, what drivel. Too much fan based defence. All of us who subscribe to this thread are keen on green, but this Apple Kool Aid hopes and dreams is not a discussion. Defend away.


k14

k14
618 posts

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  #2290692 6-Aug-2019 08:48
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Obraik:

 

I'm a fan of facts ;)

 

Consent isn't an issue. In the list I linked to earlier, there is 3,126.5 MW of renewable power generation already consented. That's more than the whole of the current South Islands current generation capacity and 1k less than the North Islands.

 

 

Correct (sort of). Whilst the RMA gets a bad wrap, it is reasonably straight forward to consent a wind farm and geothermal station, the majority of which those "already consented" stations are (it is a different story for hydro though). However, because the NZ electricity market is fully privatised, the missing link is return to investors. Because all the "mums and dads" want to ensure return on investment (steady dividends) they want to be damn sure the demand (wholesale electricity price) is there before investing in a new station. Because of the small grid size relative to the incremental increase in energy any decent size station may deliver, there is a real risk that the additional supply can suppress the wholesale market price and undermine the investment. The timing has to be very carefully managed and it is a big risk in the 2-3 years from committing to the investment to getting MW on the grid, lots of things can change in that timeframe. However, things are looking up, there are multiple larger scale stations (and/or upgrades of existing hydro/geothermal) currently close to fruition and the outlook is good. EV's are part of the story helping give business confidence that investment will deliver long term returns but it is not going to happen overnight.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2290711 6-Aug-2019 09:02
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k14:

 

Obraik:

 

I'm a fan of facts ;)

 

Consent isn't an issue. In the list I linked to earlier, there is 3,126.5 MW of renewable power generation already consented. That's more than the whole of the current South Islands current generation capacity and 1k less than the North Islands.

 

 

Correct (sort of). Whilst the RMA gets a bad wrap, it is reasonably straight forward to consent a wind farm and geothermal station, the majority of which those "already consented" stations are (it is a different story for hydro though). However, because the NZ electricity market is fully privatised, the missing link is return to investors. Because all the "mums and dads" want to ensure return on investment (steady dividends) they want to be damn sure the demand (wholesale electricity price) is there before investing in a new station. Because of the small grid size relative to the incremental increase in energy any decent size station may deliver, there is a real risk that the additional supply can suppress the wholesale market price and undermine the investment. The timing has to be very carefully managed and it is a big risk in the 2-3 years from committing to the investment to getting MW on the grid, lots of things can change in that timeframe. However, things are looking up, there are multiple larger scale stations (and/or upgrades of existing hydro/geothermal) currently close to fruition and the outlook is good. EV's are part of the story helping give business confidence that investment will deliver long term returns but it is not going to happen overnight.

 

 

 

 

Thats right, its not about need for generation or climate change the key driver is ROI. Will ROI match our desire for green and the new energy that needs to be drawn? No. Its about matching investment with a return. That in itself means that its better to let electricity prices increase due to lack of supply, then invest. The flaw is that decision making to add infrastructure structure is not based on need as its private. The need will be when demand is too high, prices are up. LAG. We see this across all infrastructure but that's generally as NZ is a small country and the voters want different things than boring roads. Until that bites. This is the story on NZ infrastructure.  Being privatised increases this lag. 


Clawhammer
27 posts

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  #2290734 6-Aug-2019 09:27
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frankv:

tdgeek:


Thats good, as is anything else electric, but as these things come on stream they are using power that as yet, we dont generate. We can't order more rain. We cant build, another hydro next week, or add 600 wind turbines the week after. I guess we will just burn more FF to make up the extra for these green ideas?



Combined cycle gas turbines are about 62% efficient at extracting energy from FF and converting it to electricity. This is about twice as efficient as an ICE, so burning FF to make electricity is actually a good thing if it replaces ICEs.


 



If, and I recognise that it is a big if, the Allam cycle demonstration plant at La Port in Texas lives up to the predictions, this could be a game changer.

wellygary
5004 posts

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  #2290753 6-Aug-2019 09:54
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Clawhammer:
If, and I recognise that it is a big if, the Allam cycle demonstration plant at La Port in Texas lives up to the predictions, this could be a game changer.

 

This is 8Rivers, who are also poking round to potentially do something similar in NZ

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12166380

 

 


SaltyNZ
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  #2290764 6-Aug-2019 10:05
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tdgeek:

 

LAG. We see this across all infrastructure but that's generally as NZ is a small country and the voters want different things than boring roads. Until that bites. This is the story on NZ infrastructure.  Being privatised increases this lag. 

 

 

 

 

It's also not in anyone's interests for the New Zealand electricity grid to collapse because we forgot to build new generators and ran out of capacity. Are we ever going to be 10 years ahead of demand? No, of course not. Are we going to let the lights go out in Auckland again? Probably not. The people in charge of the generation companies want to see an ROI, but they're not idiots.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


tdgeek
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  #2290768 6-Aug-2019 10:14
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SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

LAG. We see this across all infrastructure but that's generally as NZ is a small country and the voters want different things than boring roads. Until that bites. This is the story on NZ infrastructure.  Being privatised increases this lag. 

 

 

 

 

It's also not in anyone's interests for the New Zealand electricity grid to collapse because we forgot to build new generators and ran out of capacity. Are we ever going to be 10 years ahead of demand? No, of course not. Are we going to let the lights go out in Auckland again? Probably not. The people in charge of the generation companies want to see an ROI, but they're not idiots.

 

 

Yep. Not idiots but the ROI is what matters. Its not forgetting. If its not worth it, its not worth it. They aren't charities. There will be some niche and local ventures that will look after themselves, but investors want ROI. If they dont build as its not a worthwhile investment they wont build. Govt would need then to step up. 


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