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wellygary
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  #2290780 6-Aug-2019 10:24
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k14:

 

Correct (sort of). Whilst the RMA gets a bad wrap, it is reasonably straight forward to consent a wind farm and geothermal station, the majority of which those "already consented" stations are (it is a different story for hydro though). However, because the NZ electricity market is fully privatised, the missing link is return to investors. Because all the "mums and dads" want to ensure return on investment (steady dividends) they want to be damn sure the demand (wholesale electricity price) is there before investing in a new station. Because of the small grid size relative to the incremental increase in energy any decent size station may deliver, there is a real risk that the additional supply can suppress the wholesale market price and undermine the investment.

 

 

The History NZ's power system is replete with numerous years of required winter "energy savings"- heck the most recent mandatory brownouts were in 1992 , when all generation was still under single government ownership.

 

Privatisation is not the source of the problem of under building the grid in NZ. its the heavy reliance on Hydro that has very little storage....

 

when we have a very cold dry winter there is not much extra to go around if at all...


tripper1000
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  #2290814 6-Aug-2019 11:12
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I don't understand what the problem with a so-call "EV Evangelist" in an EV thread is. The whole point of threads is so like minded people can converse, and disinterested people can stay clear. That someone should fling a label like that within an EV thread does more to reveal the writers true intentions than bolster any point they put forward.


 
 
 
 


tdgeek
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  #2290833 6-Aug-2019 11:44
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tripper1000:

 

I don't understand what the problem with a so-call "EV Evangelist" in an EV thread is. The whole point of threads is so like minded people can converse, and disinterested people can stay clear. That someone should fling a label like that within an EV thread does more to reveal the writers true intentions than bolster any point they put forward.

 

 

Not at all. All of us here are in favour of EV's. Some see the pros and cons. Others only see what they want to see and harshly defend anything that is seemingly anti EV, such as price, range and so on. To me, price, range, lack of serious cost savings are a problem. But say that and the world ends with 25 reasons why that's wrong why EV's are so wonderful. Then you get treated as anti EV as you aren't drinking the koolaid. Its like an Apple user defending Apple or an Android user defending Android. Its never a discussion. If you can discuss the pros and cons, that's the point of a forum. But the defense mechanism from a few is not a discussion. 

 

Note the while I mentioned that term I haven't flung that term here, others have. Because one would assume, the discussion they are in keeps getting derailed by the EV Defence Force. They want to discuss but cannot. 


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2290866 6-Aug-2019 12:26
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tdgeek:

 

tripper1000:

 

I don't understand what the problem with a so-call "EV Evangelist" in an EV thread is. The whole point of threads is so like minded people can converse, and disinterested people can stay clear. That someone should fling a label like that within an EV thread does more to reveal the writers true intentions than bolster any point they put forward.

 

 

Not at all. All of us here are in favour of EV's. Some see the pros and cons. Others only see what they want to see and harshly defend anything that is seemingly anti EV, such as price, range and so on. To me, price, range, lack of serious cost savings are a problem. But say that and the world ends with 25 reasons why that's wrong why EV's are so wonderful. Then you get treated as anti EV as you aren't drinking the koolaid. Its like an Apple user defending Apple or an Android user defending Android. Its never a discussion. If you can discuss the pros and cons, that's the point of a forum. But the defense mechanism from a few is not a discussion. 

 

Note the while I mentioned that term I haven't flung that term here, others have. Because one would assume, the discussion they are in keeps getting derailed by the EV Defence Force. They want to discuss but cannot. 

 

 

As I've said, when you say something "anti EV" that's wrong expect to be called out on that. It's not a discussion if you expect everyone to agree with you. If you think I'm wrong, call me out on that and give me details on what was wrong. I'm waiting for the day that you can do the latter.


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2290871 6-Aug-2019 12:33
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k14:

 

Obraik:

 

I'm a fan of facts ;)

 

Consent isn't an issue. In the list I linked to earlier, there is 3,126.5 MW of renewable power generation already consented. That's more than the whole of the current South Islands current generation capacity and 1k less than the North Islands.

 

 

Correct (sort of). Whilst the RMA gets a bad wrap, it is reasonably straight forward to consent a wind farm and geothermal station, the majority of which those "already consented" stations are (it is a different story for hydro though). However, because the NZ electricity market is fully privatised, the missing link is return to investors. Because all the "mums and dads" want to ensure return on investment (steady dividends) they want to be damn sure the demand (wholesale electricity price) is there before investing in a new station. Because of the small grid size relative to the incremental increase in energy any decent size station may deliver, there is a real risk that the additional supply can suppress the wholesale market price and undermine the investment. The timing has to be very carefully managed and it is a big risk in the 2-3 years from committing to the investment to getting MW on the grid, lots of things can change in that timeframe. However, things are looking up, there are multiple larger scale stations (and/or upgrades of existing hydro/geothermal) currently close to fruition and the outlook is good. EV's are part of the story helping give business confidence that investment will deliver long term returns but it is not going to happen overnight.

 

 

 

 

Indeed..I have assumed the consented list is a case of getting ahead of the bureaucratic requirements so they can pull the trigger on the projects when the demand is right. Since the grid isn't currently struggling with the demand that time hasn't happened yet.


tdgeek
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  #2290899 6-Aug-2019 13:15
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Obraik:

 

 

 

Indeed..I have assumed the consented list is a case of getting ahead of the bureaucratic requirements so they can pull the trigger on the projects when the demand is right. Since the grid isn't currently struggling with the demand that time hasn't happened yet.

 

 

When the ROI is right, not the demand. One happens then after a while the other is worth it.

 

But Im wrong obviously as that is apparently anti EV


tdgeek
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  #2290902 6-Aug-2019 13:18
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Obraik:

 

 

 

As I've said, when you say something "anti EV" that's wrong expect to be called out on that. It's not a discussion if you expect everyone to agree with you. If you think I'm wrong, call me out on that and give me details on what was wrong. I'm waiting for the day that you can do the latter.

 

 

And when you say something wrong? Its not wrong os it, as if it doesn't align with your EV attitude, it must be wrong. But I have learnt that consented actually means, will definitely will be built, and definitely in time to meet demand, its not to do with ROI, and investors do not care about ROI they care about demand. The fact is, that demand will occur and occur and occur, then its worthwhile. But that's anti EV apparently so its wrong. Investors who invest in these projects will do so when demand required it and its still a poor investment


 
 
 
 


Jeeves
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  #2290990 6-Aug-2019 15:09
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In 2017 the average light vehicle per capita traveled 9265km, Or 25km per person per day. Around 44 billion km total per year based on a pop of 4.793 million.

 

EV's efficiency range from 15kwh per 100km to 20kwh. Lets call it a round 18 on average. So that 25km per day will need 4.5kWh of charge.

 

 

 

If every single one of us had an EV for their light car, that would equate to 21.5 million kWh needed, per day.

 

Averaged across 24 hours, 898,687 kWh per hour, or in other words, 0.8 gigawatts. 

 

The top 10 proposed power stations add 3.6 gigawatts of capacity.

 

 

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

Let's assume NZs population doubles and they all drive EV's and they only charge at nighttime - then we might meed the current proposed capacity of ten of the forty five power stations on this much contended list.

 

That's if every. single. light vehicle was an EV - this isn't going to happen for at least 30 years. Plenty of time to add capacity.


kingdragonfly
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  #2290998 6-Aug-2019 15:33
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I love the math. Cheers

jarledb
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  #2291027 6-Aug-2019 16:08
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Jeeves:

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

 

Thanks for that. There is a lot of FUD going around about EV cars, and that it would put too much stress on the power grid is one of them.

 

 


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2291074 6-Aug-2019 17:18
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Jeeves:

 

In 2017 the average light vehicle per capita traveled 9265km, Or 25km per person per day. Around 44 billion km total per year based on a pop of 4.793 million.

 

EV's efficiency range from 15kwh per 100km to 20kwh. Lets call it a round 18 on average. So that 25km per day will need 4.5kWh of charge.

 

 

 

If every single one of us had an EV for their light car, that would equate to 21.5 million kWh needed, per day.

 

Averaged across 24 hours, 898,687 kWh per hour, or in other words, 0.8 gigawatts. 

 

The top 10 proposed power stations add 3.6 gigawatts of capacity.

 

 

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

Let's assume NZs population doubles and they all drive EV's and they only charge at nighttime - then we might meed the current proposed capacity of ten of the forty five power stations on this much contended list.

 

That's if every. single. light vehicle was an EV - this isn't going to happen for at least 30 years. Plenty of time to add capacity.

 

 

Yep, that math doesn't point to the end of days some would like us to believe :)

 

The top 10 you list does include two new consented gas generators whose future may not be so cut and dry considering the government is pushing for 100% renewable power but even with just the top 10 renewable based generators there's still plenty of consented capacity - 2.82gW of it.


tdgeek
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  #2291122 6-Aug-2019 18:38
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Jeeves:

 

In 2017 the average light vehicle per capita traveled 9265km, Or 25km per person per day. Around 44 billion km total per year based on a pop of 4.793 million.

 

EV's efficiency range from 15kwh per 100km to 20kwh. Lets call it a round 18 on average. So that 25km per day will need 4.5kWh of charge.

 

 

 

If every single one of us had an EV for their light car, that would equate to 21.5 million kWh needed, per day.

 

Averaged across 24 hours, 898,687 kWh per hour, or in other words, 0.8 gigawatts. 

 

The top 10 proposed power stations add 3.6 gigawatts of capacity.

 

 

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

Let's assume NZs population doubles and they all drive EV's and they only charge at nighttime - then we might meed the current proposed capacity of ten of the forty five power stations on this much contended list.

 

That's if every. single. light vehicle was an EV - this isn't going to happen for at least 30 years. Plenty of time to add capacity.

 

 

so we dont actually need much extra at all?


tdgeek
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  #2291125 6-Aug-2019 18:43
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Obraik:

 

Jeeves:

 

In 2017 the average light vehicle per capita traveled 9265km, Or 25km per person per day. Around 44 billion km total per year based on a pop of 4.793 million.

 

EV's efficiency range from 15kwh per 100km to 20kwh. Lets call it a round 18 on average. So that 25km per day will need 4.5kWh of charge.

 

 

 

If every single one of us had an EV for their light car, that would equate to 21.5 million kWh needed, per day.

 

Averaged across 24 hours, 898,687 kWh per hour, or in other words, 0.8 gigawatts. 

 

The top 10 proposed power stations add 3.6 gigawatts of capacity.

 

 

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

Let's assume NZs population doubles and they all drive EV's and they only charge at nighttime - then we might meed the current proposed capacity of ten of the forty five power stations on this much contended list.

 

That's if every. single. light vehicle was an EV - this isn't going to happen for at least 30 years. Plenty of time to add capacity.

 

 

Yep, that math doesn't point to the end of days some would like us to believe :)

 

The top 10 you list does include two new consented gas generators whose future may not be so cut and dry considering the government is pushing for 100% renewable power but even with just the top 10 renewable based generators there's still plenty of consented capacity - 2.82gW of it.

 

 

Thats good to know that right now, we have enough, as your consented, I mean built, is enough. So we can double per population to 10 million, and all of us have an EV (adults) and the consent list is enough? Great news. These extra houses dont use power? Nor the businesses that must employ them? And 30 years to replace our fleet? That in itself is a fail. 30 years. All of us, not the double own one or two cars, and it will take 30 years? That means that the subsidy proposed is not actually relevant? Obviously it isn't, when you account for production, supply and current pricing, i.e. real value + R+D


tdgeek
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  #2291130 6-Aug-2019 18:48
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Obraik:

 

Yep, that math doesn't point to the end of days some would like us to believe :)

 

 

 

 

No one said end of days. You need to bone up on comprehension and discussion.However, what it does mean is that EV, which according to you is the be all and end all, is not a help to climate change. Too little too late and so on. It reminds me of the guy here who was all about his $40 per week tax cut on the Politics thread. He's not here now. His want was his want, not the country's


Obraik
785 posts

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  #2291239 6-Aug-2019 22:08
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tdgeek:

 

Obraik:

 

Yep, that math doesn't point to the end of days some would like us to believe :)

 

 

 

 

No one said end of days. You need to bone up on comprehension and discussion.However, what it does mean is that EV, which according to you is the be all and end all, is not a help to climate change. Too little too late and so on. It reminds me of the guy here who was all about his $40 per week tax cut on the Politics thread. He's not here now. His want was his want, not the country's

 

 

I'd really love to see the mental gymnastics you went through to come to that conclusion.


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