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SaltyNZ
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  #2291339 7-Aug-2019 07:19
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tdgeek:

 

So we can double per population to 10 million, and all of us have an EV (adults) and the consent list is enough? Great news. These extra houses dont use power? Nor the businesses that must employ them? And 30 years to replace our fleet? That in itself is a fail. 30 years. All of us, not the double own one or two cars, and it will take 30 years? That means that the subsidy proposed is not actually relevant? Obviously it isn't, when you account for production, supply and current pricing, i.e. real value + R+D

 

 

 

 

At our present rate of growth (2.1%) it will take around 35 years to double our population to 10 million people, which fits in quite nicely with a 30 year time frame to replace all our vehicles. I am confident that the people in charge of New Zealand's electrical generation and transmission systems can handle that.

 

In practice I expect the fleet replacement to be quicker than that because all indications are that EVs will be outright cheaper than ICEs within 5 years even with pessimistic forecasts on battery cost reduction. At that point you'll have no more reason to buy an ICE than you will a steam engine. But again: the people that run the power grid can see all this coming just as well as anyone else, if not better. The EV fleet is not armageddon for the electric power industry. It's payday.





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tdgeek
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  #2291348 7-Aug-2019 07:56
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SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

So we can double per population to 10 million, and all of us have an EV (adults) and the consent list is enough? Great news. These extra houses dont use power? Nor the businesses that must employ them? And 30 years to replace our fleet? That in itself is a fail. 30 years. All of us, not the double own one or two cars, and it will take 30 years? That means that the subsidy proposed is not actually relevant? Obviously it isn't, when you account for production, supply and current pricing, i.e. real value + R+D

 

 

 

 

At our present rate of growth (2.1%) it will take around 35 years to double our population to 10 million people, which fits in quite nicely with a 30 year time frame to replace all our vehicles. I am confident that the people in charge of New Zealand's electrical generation and transmission systems can handle that.

 

In practice I expect the fleet replacement to be quicker than that because all indications are that EVs will be outright cheaper than ICEs within 5 years even with pessimistic forecasts on battery cost reduction. At that point you'll have no more reason to buy an ICE than you will a steam engine. But again: the people that run the power grid can see all this coming just as well as anyone else, if not better. The EV fleet is not armageddon for the electric power industry. It's payday.

 

 

Prices will be less than an ICE in 5 years? That would be great, but the price premium isn't just batteries, its R+D. For R+D to be removed you need huge sales volume, which you wont get at these price premiums. Someone said battery cost is $20,000 per vehicle. The price premium will kill EV sales as an ICE is cheaper to run. 

 

I assume the 35 years allows for the light vehicle fleet to be 7.6 million cars? 

 

As I mentioned dealer, yes the grid will expand, but slower than demand, as is the case with all infrastructures in NZ, including power. 


 
 
 
 


SaltyNZ
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  #2291359 7-Aug-2019 08:22
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tdgeek:

 

Prices will be less than an ICE in 5 years?

 

 

 

 

Well, Morgan Stanley, Deloittes and Bloomberg are all making broadly similar predictions of price parity between 2022 and 2025.

 

 

 

 

That would be great, but the price premium isn't just batteries, its R+D. For R+D to be removed you need huge sales volume, which you wont get at these price premiums.

 

 

 

 

The R+D is done. AC variable speed drive controllers were bachelor degree electrical engineering projects back when *I* was at university in the early 90s. What's costing now is the ramp up to build battery factories.

 

 

 

 

Someone said battery cost is $20,000 per vehicle.

 

 

 

 

I don't know who that someone was, but that's just ridiculous. Even now, a 60kWh battery pack is only worth about 10,000 USD. That's only about $15,000 NZ. Granted, that's factory installed rather than a replacement but equally as such my Leaf isn't going to fit a 60kWh battery in it.

 

 

 

 

The price premium will kill EV sales as an ICE is cheaper to run. 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry, what?

 

 





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kingdragonfly
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  #2291381 7-Aug-2019 09:01
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Good articles SaltyNZ

Obraik
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  #2291416 7-Aug-2019 10:01
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tdgeek:

 

Prices will be less than an ICE in 5 years? That would be great, but the price premium isn't just batteries, its R+D. For R+D to be removed you need huge sales volume, which you wont get at these price premiums. Someone said battery cost is $20,000 per vehicle. The price premium will kill EV sales as an ICE is cheaper to run. 

 

I assume the 35 years allows for the light vehicle fleet to be 7.6 million cars? 

 

As I mentioned dealer, yes the grid will expand, but slower than demand, as is the case with all infrastructures in NZ, including power. 

 

 

Do remember that New Zealand isn't the only country buying EVs. All buyers across all countries are helping companies recoup their R&D costs.


Dingbatt
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  #2291439 7-Aug-2019 10:16
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Just watched a video on Tesla’s latest automotive wiring patent

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ygSp-vSzyN8

Uses architecture more like a computer network to replace the current canbus and dedicated wiring looms.
Saves kms of wiring, can be installed by manufacturing robots and allows future hardware upgrade paths.

More disruptive tech for a century plus industry?




Areas of Geek interest: Home Theatre, HTPC, Android Tablets & Phones, iProducts.

tdgeek
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  #2291494 7-Aug-2019 10:34
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Prices will be less than an ICE in 5 years? That would be great, but the price premium isn't just batteries, its R+D. For R+D to be removed you need huge sales volume, which you wont get at these price premiums. Someone said battery cost is $20,000 per vehicle. The price premium will kill EV sales as an ICE is cheaper to run. 

 

I assume the 35 years allows for the light vehicle fleet to be 7.6 million cars? 

 

As I mentioned dealer, yes the grid will expand, but slower than demand, as is the case with all infrastructures in NZ, including power. 

 

 

Do remember that New Zealand isn't the only country buying EVs. All buyers across all countries are helping companies recoup their R&D costs.

 

 

Excluding China, there isnt that many EV's out there. My point was if production was at ICE levels or near, then sales would be high, then R+D will recover quickly. Enlighten me, but international EV sales seem miniscule. It may also be that R+D is minimal, they are just cars, with just a different engine type, and the fuel is just batteries. So, why so expensive? The Kona at 40k vs 80k is a notable example


 
 
 
 


SaltyNZ
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  #2291510 7-Aug-2019 10:43
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tdgeek:

 

Excluding China, there isnt that many EV's out there. My point was if production was at ICE levels or near, then sales would be high, then R+D will recover quickly. Enlighten me, but international EV sales seem miniscule. It may also be that R+D is minimal, they are just cars, with just a different engine type, and the fuel is just batteries. So, why so expensive? The Kona at 40k vs 80k is a notable example

 

 

 

 

Because as someone else already pointed out, they can barely keep up with demand at that price already so why would they only price it at $50K? Price parity is not predicted for 2019. It's predicted for 3-5 years from now.





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kingdragonfly
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  #2291511 7-Aug-2019 10:43
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Dingbatt: Just watched a video on Tesla’s latest automotive wiring patent. Uses architecture more like a computer network to replace the current canbus and dedicated wiring looms.
Saves kms of wiring, can be installed by manufacturing robots and allows future hardware upgrade paths.

More disruptive tech for a century plus industry?


I like CANBUS, because every car has it (since the 80's). If all car manufacturers agree to switch, then fine.

CANBUS is used by planes, trains, robots, and hospitals.

CANBUS makes installing a replacement radio very easy.

For instance most smart radios understand how to use steering wheel controls

* change source (FM / USB / Bluetooth/ ...)
* change volume
* change channel

Also many smart radios support reverse cameras, which in turn relies on CANBUS talking to transmission to see if car is in reverse.


tdgeek
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  #2291512 7-Aug-2019 10:45
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SaltyNZ:

 

 

 

The price premium will kill EV sales as an ICE is cheaper to run. 

 

 

 

I'm sorry, what?

 

 

 

 

Good info, thanks

 

$40,000 Kona ICE vs $80,000 less $8000 Kona EV

 

RUC + Litre equivalent makes the EV 70c + 30c per litre equivalent fuel wise. That a bit less than half petrol. Yes, there is a bit of annual service saving. So I have $32000 in the bank, earning interest to make up the $1 a litre fuel saving. That will take years and years. Factor in double natural depreciation. ICE is cheaper to run, so why buy an EV? That why the price premium needs to drop so that there is near price parity then EV is cheaper to run then we buy them in droves. 


tdgeek
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  #2291517 7-Aug-2019 10:47
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SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

Excluding China, there isnt that many EV's out there. My point was if production was at ICE levels or near, then sales would be high, then R+D will recover quickly. Enlighten me, but international EV sales seem miniscule. It may also be that R+D is minimal, they are just cars, with just a different engine type, and the fuel is just batteries. So, why so expensive? The Kona at 40k vs 80k is a notable example

 

 

 

 

Because as someone else already pointed out, they can barely keep up with demand at that price already so why would they only price it at $50K? Price parity is not predicted for 2019. It's predicted for 3-5 years from now.

 

 

I agree, right now its just early adopters. When will production be at ICE levels? Car wise its just a car, most of the EV is the same as an ICE, just as one ICE model is the same but different to the other ICE model. 


tdgeek
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  #2291525 7-Aug-2019 10:52
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SaltyNZ:

 

Price parity is not predicted for 2019. It's predicted for 3-5 years from now.

 

 

So, we have this small $8000 subsidy, and we haver this so called new tax, it seems that its premature. As there will be few EV;s sold, as the majority cannot afford an 80k base EV such as the Kona. If parity or near parity is due in 2025 we should wait till then.


SaltyNZ
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  #2291526 7-Aug-2019 10:53
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tdgeek:

 

So I have $32000 in the bank, earning interest

 

 

 

 

Ah, clearly one of those kiwi battlers then. Sadly I don't have even such meager resources as those to draw upon whenever, so I will never be able to afford an EV.

 

But even if the RUC comes back at the full rate with no other changes - which is crazy - that's still cheaper than an ICE and emits zero emissions which again is the point of EVs. The fact that they are cheaper to run is, shall we say, merely icing.





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SaltyNZ
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  #2291542 7-Aug-2019 10:57
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tdgeek:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

Price parity is not predicted for 2019. It's predicted for 3-5 years from now.

 

 

So, we have this small $8000 subsidy, and we haver this so called new tax, it seems that its premature.

 

 

 

 

The feebate doesn't kick in till 2021. And if at that point the unsubsidised price of an EV is already approaching the price of an equivalent ICE, then the feebate should more than make up the rest of the difference.

 

 

 

 

As there will be few EV;s sold, as the majority cannot afford an 80k base EV such as the Kona. If parity or near parity is due in 2025 we should wait till then.

 

 

 

 

Volkswagen alone predicts they will be manufacturing more EVs than ICEs by 2021.

 

 

 

 





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


Obraik
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  #2291545 7-Aug-2019 11:05
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tdgeek:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

Price parity is not predicted for 2019. It's predicted for 3-5 years from now.

 

 

So, we have this small $8000 subsidy, and we haver this so called new tax, it seems that its premature. As there will be few EV;s sold, as the majority cannot afford an 80k base EV such as the Kona. If parity or near parity is due in 2025 we should wait till then.

 

 

They could always go for a cheaper Leaf at $60k.


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