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Obraik
785 posts

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  #2291753 7-Aug-2019 15:31
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maxeon:

 

I drive a Tesla and I am a early adopter who paid hefty price for it. I personally do not regret it because I really like the car and it's technology along with the drive and instant response. I will not compare this against any other car in the market around that price bracket just because they are not apples to apples. Audi Q7 was my previous one, I can tell you lot of people said Audi was very comfortable seats, luxury built and heavy and nice to drive etc, but my current Tesla will accelerate faster, has more functions and personally feel it has more technical advancements, so I guess I am satisfied with the premium I paid for now. 

 

Saying the above, I don't think my Tesla will drop significantly in price in the next 4 years, perhaps less than an Audi. 

 

Just saying .. 

 

 

Yeah, although Tesla keeps adjusting the price of their vehicles I don't see them getting much cheaper. What I do see happening is that they might add new vehicles that fit into the cheaper price brackets (Elon has mentioned a sub US$30k car down the line), but they need to scale up their support structure first before they start doing that.

 

I do think in the next few years we'll start to see other manufactures adding EVs that start at cheaper prices then they do today.


Guilliman
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  #2291768 7-Aug-2019 15:59
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maxeon:

I drive a Tesla and I am a early adopter who paid hefty price for it. I personally do not regret it because I really like the car and it's technology along with the drive and instant response. I will not compare this against any other car in the market around that price bracket just because they are not apples to apples. Audi Q7 was my previous one, I can tell you lot of people said Audi was very comfortable seats, luxury built and heavy and nice to drive etc, but my current Tesla will accelerate faster, has more functions and personally feel it has more technical advancements, so I guess I am satisfied with the premium I paid for now. 

 

Saying the above, I don't think my Tesla will drop significantly in price in the next 4 years, perhaps less than an Audi. 

 

Just saying .. 

 

 

Hmm, I'm under the impression that Audis have among the worst if not the worst depreciation rates of any car. I wonder if there is any truth in this?

 
 
 
 


Handle9
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  #2291771 7-Aug-2019 16:03
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tdgeek:

 

Look guys if you all think I am anti EV that's totally incorrect. Read my posts from day one on these threads. If me raising challenges makes some unhappy, then I apologise. Many challenges are future related. yes I have used links, yes I have referred to them, and no I dont state my opinions as facts. Correct me as some do, appreciated, But some here are highly fan based which means that any negative comments are taken badly. Ive seen many comments which I felt were meaningful were ignored, and have had support ticks. In any case I see a pattern where posting negative comments is taken as anti EV. If everyone here things EV has no challenges worth mentioning , well thats fine then. But I do apologise.

 

@Handle9 sorry. When I am sitting here quite happy posting seomething that I feel has merit and is called unhinged, I find that annoying, apologies for my last post. Grumpy old man? No, not quite. Its just a topic of interest to me, no more, no less. Sorry again.

 

Back to my gardening day off. 

 

 

 

 

All good - I wasn't being diplomatic so I can't expect an entirely polite response :)

 

 

 

 


maxeon
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  #2291774 7-Aug-2019 16:08
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Guilliman: Hmm, I'm under the impression that Audis have among the worst if not the worst depreciation rates of any car. I wonder if there is any truth in this?

 

Possibly that applies to most european luxury brands? I only used Audi as an example as I had the Q7 before Tesla for same / similar pricing. 


On2or3wheels
46 posts

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  #2291775 7-Aug-2019 16:09
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Jeeves:

 

In 2017 the average light vehicle per capita traveled 9265km, Or 25km per person per day. Around 44 billion km total per year based on a pop of 4.793 million.

 

EV's efficiency range from 15kwh per 100km to 20kwh. Lets call it a round 18 on average. So that 25km per day will need 4.5kWh of charge.

 

 

 

If every single one of us had an EV for their light car, that would equate to 21.5 million kWh needed, per day.

 

Averaged across 24 hours, 898,687 kWh per hour, or in other words, 0.8 gigawatts. 

 

The top 10 proposed power stations add 3.6 gigawatts of capacity.

 

 

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

Let's assume NZs population doubles and they all drive EV's and they only charge at nighttime - then we might meed the current proposed capacity of ten of the forty five power stations on this much contended list.

 

That's if every. single. light vehicle was an EV - this isn't going to happen for at least 30 years. Plenty of time to add capacity.

 

 

This is very simplistic though & ignores some very real issues.

 

     

  1. The network needs to be able to cope with the possible peak load, not an average.
    Weekends or public holidays may end up with large spikes.
    Something like ripple control for electric car charging will be required to avoid black/brown outs.

  2. You can’t just average a charging amount right across the country.
    No doubt people in Auckland commute a lot further each day requiring a much larger charge.
    What about holiday hotspots? What will happen at Christmas when say 100,000 people turn up to Nelson with near flat batteries from Christchurch?
    Or Kaikoura that’s at the end of a single transmission line system.
    How about older suburbs where the houses don’t even have a large enough main breaker for faster charging & the street cabling & local subs won’t cope.
    What happens when heavy transport & buses all go electric? You would require a small power station at the bus depot!
    The entire electricity network will need replacing/upgrading. All the way from the generators right down to your local street & all the HV/LV substations in-between.

  3. A lot of people are pointing to spare capacity at night.
    As some have pointed out we don’t have ample lake storage to actually run our hydro at full capacity continually, so reducing output at night is just leaving us more water for the days. Wind output at night is often extremely low as well due to the lack of wind.
    If usage at night shoots up too much then bye bye cheap night rate & it will more than double the cost to recharge your car.

  4. The output capacity you refer to of 3.6 gigawatts for the potential future stations, ignores the very real `capacity factor’ of power stations.
    Wind for instance in NZ generates around 40% of its rated output. Even hydro can be as low as 50% due to water constraints.
    Since there’s some large wind farms on that list we might be lucky to get half the 3.6 output. We also have the issue where generally the “best” locations have already been utilised in relation to output, so the capacity factor could be quite low for those new stations. For instance trying to construct a hydro station these days with a large storage lake & high head will be a challenge.

 

 

 

I’m not trying to be negative toward EV’s, just a realist in terms of the planning & work that will be required.

 

If the uptake is too quick then we will be hit with astronomical power price increases. This will be in triple as well since Transpower & the local lines company will also have to hike their prices.

 

The best solution is still to commute smarter. A single person commuting in a Leaf is still hugely inefficient & adding to congestion.

 

I want to see electric mini cars or small electric motorbike/scooters. Going smaller & lighter would help with congestion & they would only require small batteries.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Handle9
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  #2291776 7-Aug-2019 16:09
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tdgeek:

 

Fine then. Explain to me then how consent is defines as , will definitely happen, will definitely happen on time to meet demand. Thats the defintion from someone here, who also quoted around 3100 MW we need when the Govt say 6000MW, as from links here

 

While you are at it, look up name calling. Just because I dont see the sweet smelling roses of EV 100% of the time, despite being interested in them, doesn't mean that's wrong. Or are you also a fortune teller? Just an occasional topic where its about fans not discussion. Sating anything here that is vaguely negative is anti EV, thats the disconnect.

 

But yeah whatever. I cannot even mention BMC and his mantra of "ball 1" without you coming back omg on about other aspects of his game. I thought ball 1 was enough of a descriptor, but everyone has to be right or needs to correct others at times

 

 

If you can explain exactly when the demand will come on then I'll explain exactly when the capacity will come...

 

The reason that there hasn't been much generation built recently is the demand has dropped. Large commercial and industry have invested in energy efficiency and at a residential level we are making our houses more efficient.

 

The generators spend a great deal of time and money in modelling the market and where they can build capacity. One of the reasons we have a very resilient grid (especially for a highly distributed and small population) is that our generators know what they are doing and transpower is efficient in running the grid.

 

Outside of the consented schemes the generators have plans to build significantly more capacity, as the demand comes on. Given that we have 50% of the projected growth for the next 30 years consented we are in a pretty good position.

 

The absolute number of kwH are less significant than the demand modeling. We have quite a lot of large capacity generation but it doesn't come on quickly. That's why much of the market recently has been for peakers (ie jet engines) that can be ramped up very quickly and switched off just as quickly.


frednz
1434 posts

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  #2291796 7-Aug-2019 17:04
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On2or3wheels:

 

This is very simplistic though & ignores some very real issues.

 

     

  1. The network needs to be able to cope with the possible peak load, not an average.
    Weekends or public holidays may end up with large spikes.
    Something like ripple control for electric car charging will be required to avoid black/brown outs.

  2. You can’t just average a charging amount right across the country.
    No doubt people in Auckland commute a lot further each day requiring a much larger charge.
    What about holiday hotspots? What will happen at Christmas when say 100,000 people turn up to Nelson with near flat batteries from Christchurch?
    Or Kaikoura that’s at the end of a single transmission line system.
    How about older suburbs where the houses don’t even have a large enough main breaker for faster charging & the street cabling & local subs won’t cope.
    What happens when heavy transport & buses all go electric? You would require a small power station at the bus depot!
    The entire electricity network will need replacing/upgrading. All the way from the generators right down to your local street & all the HV/LV substations in-between.

  3. A lot of people are pointing to spare capacity at night.
    As some have pointed out we don’t have ample lake storage to actually run our hydro at full capacity continually, so reducing output at night is just leaving us more water for the days. Wind output at night is often extremely low as well due to the lack of wind.
    If usage at night shoots up too much then bye bye cheap night rate & it will more than double the cost to recharge your car.

  4. The output capacity you refer to of 3.6 gigawatts for the potential future stations, ignores the very real `capacity factor’ of power stations.
    Wind for instance in NZ generates around 40% of its rated output. Even hydro can be as low as 50% due to water constraints.
    Since there’s some large wind farms on that list we might be lucky to get half the 3.6 output. We also have the issue where generally the “best” locations have already been utilised in relation to output, so the capacity factor could be quite low for those new stations. For instance trying to construct a hydro station these days with a large storage lake & high head will be a challenge.

 

I’m not trying to be negative toward EV’s, just a realist in terms of the planning & work that will be required.

 

If the uptake is too quick then we will be hit with astronomical power price increases. This will be in triple as well since Transpower & the local lines company will also have to hike their prices.

 

The best solution is still to commute smarter. A single person commuting in a Leaf is still hugely inefficient & adding to congestion.

 

I want to see electric mini cars or small electric motorbike/scooters. Going smaller & lighter would help with congestion & they would only require small batteries.

 

 

I know that dealing with climate change is urgent, but I think you may be right when you warn of the effect of too fast an uptake of EVs, particularly during sustained periods of low lake levels, inadequate wind (or perhaps even winds that are too strong).

 

Recently, I made the following post on another forum:

 

As to whether the renewable grid can keep up with demand, this article may be of interest:

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/97731/make-nzs-future-energy-supply-called-question-unprecedented-gas-and-hydro-shortages

 

From the above:

 

Genesis Energy’s reliance on coal at the end of last year (2018) is again putting the debate around how New Zealand will generate energy in the future on the table.

 

The company reports it generated 512 gigawatt-hours of energy using coal in the December quarter – a 155% increase from the same period the previous year and the most since the June 2013 quarter.

 

In fact, coal was behind 32% of the energy it generated in the December quarter.

 

Genesis says, the “unprecedented” gas and hydro shortage at the end of last year saw it run two dual fuel Rankine units at Huntly on coal for long periods.

 

Dry weather also saw hydro storage levels hit rock bottom; the cumulation of events forcing Genesis to import coal from Indonesia.

 

And the use of natural gas for electricity generation doesn't often get a mention, and even though not as bad as coal for the environment, this certainly needs to be taken into account.

 

So, if you double or triple the number of EVs that need to be charged up during times of gas and hydro shortage, who can say with any certainty that we won't again be importing coal from overseas to generate the required electricity?

 

The report "Adjusting to New Zealand's Electricity Future" is relevant here:

 

https://www.ea.govt.nz/about-us/media-and-publications/speeches-and-presentations/

 

Also this report:

 

https://www.ea.govt.nz/about-us/media-and-publications/market-commentary/outlook/adjusting-to-nzs-changing-electricity-future/


 
 
 
 


wellygary
4999 posts

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  #2291835 7-Aug-2019 17:34
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frednz:

 

From the above:

 

Genesis Energy’s reliance on coal at the end of last year (2018) is again putting the debate around how New Zealand will generate energy in the future on the table.

 

 

Huntly's remaining Rankine units  will get pushed off the Grid when the next geothermal station gets built...(probably by 2025)

 

Contact are spending $30 mil this year drilling test wells, so that bodes well for greenlighting the Tauhara 2 project that would add 250MW , but more importantly ~2000gwh to the grid - Geothermal runs north of 80% generation capacity.

 

There is also 30MW going in now at Ngawha,

 

Huntly is currently being sweated by Genesis ( because they can), but eventually its hours will get up and it will be forced to spend real money to extend its life, at that point they will see the writing on the wall and pull the plug....

 

The additional wind that looks likely will also help preserve hydro storage...but in all honesty we could really do with adding a metre or two of height to a few lakes  -( but that ain't gonna happen)  


tdgeek
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  #2291849 7-Aug-2019 18:41
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Obraik:

 

tdgeek:

 

Fine then. Explain to me then how consent is defines as , will definitely happen, will definitely happen on time to meet demand. Thats the defintion from someone here, who also quoted around 3100 MW we need when the Govt say 6000MW, as from links here

 

 

You've misread what was written. The 3100MW number is adding up all the currently consented renewable power stations, which was in reply to a claim by you that you weren't aware of any other hydro projects (6 consented hydro stations are included in that number).

 

 

No it wasnt. I read that we need x amount of extra generation in the future. I quoted no numbers as Im not a generation expert so I go by others. IIRC the required was about 3.1MW the consented was about 3.3. So it works IF it happens. Now the number is 6MW as from a few posts ago. 


tdgeek
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  #2291851 7-Aug-2019 18:43
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Obraik:

 

maxeon:

 

I drive a Tesla and I am a early adopter who paid hefty price for it. I personally do not regret it because I really like the car and it's technology along with the drive and instant response. I will not compare this against any other car in the market around that price bracket just because they are not apples to apples. Audi Q7 was my previous one, I can tell you lot of people said Audi was very comfortable seats, luxury built and heavy and nice to drive etc, but my current Tesla will accelerate faster, has more functions and personally feel it has more technical advancements, so I guess I am satisfied with the premium I paid for now. 

 

Saying the above, I don't think my Tesla will drop significantly in price in the next 4 years, perhaps less than an Audi. 

 

Just saying .. 

 

 

Yeah, although Tesla keeps adjusting the price of their vehicles I don't see them getting much cheaper. What I do see happening is that they might add new vehicles that fit into the cheaper price brackets (Elon has mentioned a sub US$30k car down the line), but they need to scale up their support structure first before they start doing that.

 

I do think in the next few years we'll start to see other manufactures adding EVs that start at cheaper prices then they do today.

 

 

Its already been posted that R+D is done. That price parity will be in 2025. 


tdgeek
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  #2291864 7-Aug-2019 18:55
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Handle9:

 

tdgeek:

 

Look guys if you all think I am anti EV that's totally incorrect. Read my posts from day one on these threads. If me raising challenges makes some unhappy, then I apologise. Many challenges are future related. yes I have used links, yes I have referred to them, and no I dont state my opinions as facts. Correct me as some do, appreciated, But some here are highly fan based which means that any negative comments are taken badly. Ive seen many comments which I felt were meaningful were ignored, and have had support ticks. In any case I see a pattern where posting negative comments is taken as anti EV. If everyone here things EV has no challenges worth mentioning , well thats fine then. But I do apologise.

 

@Handle9 sorry. When I am sitting here quite happy posting seomething that I feel has merit and is called unhinged, I find that annoying, apologies for my last post. Grumpy old man? No, not quite. Its just a topic of interest to me, no more, no less. Sorry again.

 

Back to my gardening day off. 

 

 

 

 

All good - I wasn't being diplomatic so I can't expect an entirely polite response :)

 

 

 

 

 

All I want to say to you, is that I've been here awhile, and I know you, and I respect your posts. If I am being a dick, and you say so, I'll take that on the chin. I will, re read my posts as IMHO, and genuine, I felt my posts were genuine, devils advocate if you like. My background is finance and project management, so I tend to ignore the "ok" and focus on the "need to fix" As well as keep a sneaky eye on the ok so that doesn't get outta hand. 

 

My EV feel is that I am a fan, but not a FAN. It has a huge number of positives but also challenges. No, Im not a generation expert. I read we need 3000 odd mW extra, consented is 3.3 from memory. I read we will double the population by 2030, now we need 6000MW. Now I also read EV will dominate in a decade. But I also read we will be EV penetration of 41% or 71% by 2030. Lots of estimates.Its future, no one knows. 

 

My overall issue is all this is the future. If I LOVED EV it will all be fine. But to me, it might be, it might not be, it might be a fail. Predominantly as generation is privatised. Generation is about profits not need

 

Appreciate your reply. Thanks

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2291866 7-Aug-2019 18:59
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On2or3wheels:

 

Jeeves:

 

In 2017 the average light vehicle per capita traveled 9265km, Or 25km per person per day. Around 44 billion km total per year based on a pop of 4.793 million.

 

EV's efficiency range from 15kwh per 100km to 20kwh. Lets call it a round 18 on average. So that 25km per day will need 4.5kWh of charge.

 

 

 

If every single one of us had an EV for their light car, that would equate to 21.5 million kWh needed, per day.

 

Averaged across 24 hours, 898,687 kWh per hour, or in other words, 0.8 gigawatts. 

 

The top 10 proposed power stations add 3.6 gigawatts of capacity.

 

 

 

Lets assume everyone charges during the 12 hours of 'night time'.. we would need 1.6 gW capacity - half of what is currently slated.

 

Let's assume NZs population doubles and they all drive EV's and they only charge at nighttime - then we might meed the current proposed capacity of ten of the forty five power stations on this much contended list.

 

That's if every. single. light vehicle was an EV - this isn't going to happen for at least 30 years. Plenty of time to add capacity.

 

 

This is very simplistic though & ignores some very real issues.

 

     

  1. The network needs to be able to cope with the possible peak load, not an average.
    Weekends or public holidays may end up with large spikes.
    Something like ripple control for electric car charging will be required to avoid black/brown outs.

  2. You can’t just average a charging amount right across the country.
    No doubt people in Auckland commute a lot further each day requiring a much larger charge.
    What about holiday hotspots? What will happen at Christmas when say 100,000 people turn up to Nelson with near flat batteries from Christchurch?
    Or Kaikoura that’s at the end of a single transmission line system.
    How about older suburbs where the houses don’t even have a large enough main breaker for faster charging & the street cabling & local subs won’t cope.
    What happens when heavy transport & buses all go electric? You would require a small power station at the bus depot!
    The entire electricity network will need replacing/upgrading. All the way from the generators right down to your local street & all the HV/LV substations in-between.

  3. A lot of people are pointing to spare capacity at night.
    As some have pointed out we don’t have ample lake storage to actually run our hydro at full capacity continually, so reducing output at night is just leaving us more water for the days. Wind output at night is often extremely low as well due to the lack of wind.
    If usage at night shoots up too much then bye bye cheap night rate & it will more than double the cost to recharge your car.

  4. The output capacity you refer to of 3.6 gigawatts for the potential future stations, ignores the very real `capacity factor’ of power stations.
    Wind for instance in NZ generates around 40% of its rated output. Even hydro can be as low as 50% due to water constraints.
    Since there’s some large wind farms on that list we might be lucky to get half the 3.6 output. We also have the issue where generally the “best” locations have already been utilised in relation to output, so the capacity factor could be quite low for those new stations. For instance trying to construct a hydro station these days with a large storage lake & high head will be a challenge.

 

 

 

I’m not trying to be negative toward EV’s, just a realist in terms of the planning & work that will be required.

 

If the uptake is too quick then we will be hit with astronomical power price increases. This will be in triple as well since Transpower & the local lines company will also have to hike their prices.

 

The best solution is still to commute smarter. A single person commuting in a Leaf is still hugely inefficient & adding to congestion.

 

I want to see electric mini cars or small electric motorbike/scooters. Going smaller & lighter would help with congestion & they would only require small batteries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A great post

 

Its not about negativity, this while climate change, EV, EV buses, EV rail, weather that may be hot or cool or wet or dry is in unknown. Climate channel will cause some to be hot, or cool, or wet or dry. Its an unknown. 


tdgeek
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  #2291869 7-Aug-2019 19:12
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Handle9:

 

tdgeek:

 

Fine then. Explain to me then how consent is defines as , will definitely happen, will definitely happen on time to meet demand. Thats the defintion from someone here, who also quoted around 3100 MW we need when the Govt say 6000MW, as from links here

 

While you are at it, look up name calling. Just because I dont see the sweet smelling roses of EV 100% of the time, despite being interested in them, doesn't mean that's wrong. Or are you also a fortune teller? Just an occasional topic where its about fans not discussion. Sating anything here that is vaguely negative is anti EV, thats the disconnect.

 

But yeah whatever. I cannot even mention BMC and his mantra of "ball 1" without you coming back omg on about other aspects of his game. I thought ball 1 was enough of a descriptor, but everyone has to be right or needs to correct others at times

 

 

If you can explain exactly when the demand will come on then I'll explain exactly when the capacity will come...

 

The reason that there hasn't been much generation built recently is the demand has dropped. Large commercial and industry have invested in energy efficiency and at a residential level we are making our houses more efficient.

 

The generators spend a great deal of time and money in modelling the market and where they can build capacity. One of the reasons we have a very resilient grid (especially for a highly distributed and small population) is that our generators know what they are doing and transpower is efficient in running the grid.

 

Outside of the consented schemes the generators have plans to build significantly more capacity, as the demand comes on. Given that we have 50% of the projected growth for the next 30 years consented we are in a pretty good position.

 

The absolute number of kwH are less significant than the demand modeling. We have quite a lot of large capacity generation but it doesn't come on quickly. That's why much of the market recently has been for peakers (ie jet engines) that can be ramped up very quickly and switched off just as quickly.

 

 

From posts here we need an extra 3000 mW over 30 years. The consented was about 3300mW. Sorted. Now (and I can search if needed) it was 6000mW. The Govt is looking at wind to make that up (over the consented) So that's all fine. Someone posted we will double in population over 30 years. Houses dont need much, but if the population doubles, houses double (no big deal) but as commercial and industrial use most power they would double as well? Add in that then we are all EV, and EV buses, and EV light rail (guess) 

 

So from a layman, that's a lot extra to generate. Hydro would be limited? Wind is a good idea. What about storage, as lake storage isn't huge. 

 

If the issue was just population increase, but these days its EV, EV buses, possibly EV light rail, iPhones (:-) ) and the effect on us of climate change . CC doesn't just mean hot (it might for you in the Middle East :-) but it may mean more or less rain, wind and lake levels. 

 

To me, as a laymen, its an unknown


SaltyNZ
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  #2291909 7-Aug-2019 20:23
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tdgeek:

 

Its already been posted that R+D is done. That price parity will be in 2025. 

 

 

 

 

The R+D for efficiently connecting a high voltage battery to a variable speed motor and using it also as a generator to recharge the battery is done. Electric cars never actually went away completely, but the basic technology to make a modern EV is decades old already.

 

Tesla specifically are a bit of a different case for several reasons.

 

Firstly, they aren't exactly Ford with nearly a hundred years of expertise in efficiently mass producing cars. In fact one big reason Tesla has been so slow to ramp up production has really nothing to do with the "E" part of the "EV" but rather that Elon Musk insisted on a goal of 100% automation in production. All the existing car makers - who've been trying to do it for decades - told him that was a pipe dream but he did not want to listen. As a result, Tesla have had problem after problem and were eventually forced to scale back on the automation because they just couldn't get some things to work. Maybe some day they will. But for now, their problem is not that EVs are hard, it's that cars are hard, and they don't know all the tricks the other manufacturers know that make them easy to build and easy to repair.

 

Secondly - and related to that - Musk likes to talk a big game and make what seem to be ridiculous promises far ahead of any realistic ability to deliver. Now you have to give him credit where credit's due: the first time I saw a Falcon 9 do a vertical landing on a ship at sea there were honest to god tears in my eyes and I felt like I was 10 years old watching Star Trek. But - he's also promised full autonomous driving to a bunch of people who paid a lot of extra money to get it but it turns out that actually Tesla is a looooong way away from that, and it might not even be possible with the computer power in the cars already sold. Whoops! Or maybe it will. The point is, nobody knows.

 

Anyway - Tesla is a special snowflake and although I give them great credit for making the idea of an EV sexy, they are no more a mass market vehicle than a Ferrari. It will be the boring electric Corollas and Civics that will finally bring EVs to the mass market. That's why the Leaf is the most popular car in practice, even if it's not the most exciting.





iPad Pro 11" + iPhone XS + 2degrees 4tw!

 

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.


Obraik
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  #2291935 7-Aug-2019 21:40
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On2or3wheels:

 

This is very simplistic though & ignores some very real issues.

 

     

  1. The network needs to be able to cope with the possible peak load, not an average.
    Weekends or public holidays may end up with large spikes.
    Something like ripple control for electric car charging will be required to avoid black/brown outs.

  2. You can’t just average a charging amount right across the country.
    No doubt people in Auckland commute a lot further each day requiring a much larger charge.
    What about holiday hotspots? What will happen at Christmas when say 100,000 people turn up to Nelson with near flat batteries from Christchurch?
    Or Kaikoura that’s at the end of a single transmission line system.
    How about older suburbs where the houses don’t even have a large enough main breaker for faster charging & the street cabling & local subs won’t cope.
    What happens when heavy transport & buses all go electric? You would require a small power station at the bus depot!
    The entire electricity network will need replacing/upgrading. All the way from the generators right down to your local street & all the HV/LV substations in-between.

  3. A lot of people are pointing to spare capacity at night.
    As some have pointed out we don’t have ample lake storage to actually run our hydro at full capacity continually, so reducing output at night is just leaving us more water for the days. Wind output at night is often extremely low as well due to the lack of wind.
    If usage at night shoots up too much then bye bye cheap night rate & it will more than double the cost to recharge your car.

  4. The output capacity you refer to of 3.6 gigawatts for the potential future stations, ignores the very real `capacity factor’ of power stations.
    Wind for instance in NZ generates around 40% of its rated output. Even hydro can be as low as 50% due to water constraints.
    Since there’s some large wind farms on that list we might be lucky to get half the 3.6 output. We also have the issue where generally the “best” locations have already been utilised in relation to output, so the capacity factor could be quite low for those new stations. For instance trying to construct a hydro station these days with a large storage lake & high head will be a challenge.

 

 

 

I’m not trying to be negative toward EV’s, just a realist in terms of the planning & work that will be required.

 

If the uptake is too quick then we will be hit with astronomical power price increases. This will be in triple as well since Transpower & the local lines company will also have to hike their prices.

 

The best solution is still to commute smarter. A single person commuting in a Leaf is still hugely inefficient & adding to congestion.

 

I want to see electric mini cars or small electric motorbike/scooters. Going smaller & lighter would help with congestion & they would only require small batteries.

 

 

     

  1. Yeah, peak loads are something that will need to be managed. However, one can only draw so much from a socket. If someone is just using an ordinary 10a socket then this isn't going to be all that different to using a heater, kettle, drier, etc. However, adding a 32a socket might require more control and these sockets might need to be required to be on ripple control to avoid overloading the neighborhood circuits.
  2. I'm guessing you're exaggerating a little with the 100k tourists from Christchurch numbers, however people traveling generally use public chargers so the charging load is going to be limited by the number of charging points at the tourist destinations.  Yes, some older lines are probably going to need to be upgraded to cater for fast charging at home but this is probably going to happen anyway. 
  3. This kind of addresses 4 as well, but as more wind is added the less hydro should need to be used during the windy periods, saving the hydro for the peak times - kind of like what coal is used for today. We haven't really begun to use all of our available wind generation potential. This page shows a number of locations that are being investigated. As we move through the decades and battery tech advances and becomes cheaper there's the potential to store excess wind and solar power in these for peak time loads.

 

I do agree, we need to get better about public transport in NZ and make needing a car less of a requirement for more people. We spent so many decades ripping out perfectly good public transport systems from our cities with the rise of the car and now we're paying the price for that. 


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