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SaltyNZ
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  #2327562 1-Oct-2019 11:43
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tdgeek:

 

I feel Heavy vehicles will come thick and fast once viable market propositions are easily accessible. For these buses, if they're at least 2 years away, they'll ramp up fairly quickly beyond that.

 

Thats the main thing holding all EV's back. It needs to be viable for you and me and a business to buy one.

 

 

 

 

What exactly is a "viable market proposition" for you then? China has 421,000 electric buses already. I've been doing a 110km daily commute for the last 18 months in a car that's four years obsolete, which cost me roughly as much as my colleagues spend on their ICE vehicles.

 

If your new car budget is $2000 - and believe me, I've been there - then no, an EV is not for you. But neither is any vehicle that's not old enough to vote & drink on its own.





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tdgeek
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  #2327579 1-Oct-2019 12:01
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SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

I feel Heavy vehicles will come thick and fast once viable market propositions are easily accessible. For these buses, if they're at least 2 years away, they'll ramp up fairly quickly beyond that.

 

Thats the main thing holding all EV's back. It needs to be viable for you and me and a business to buy one.

 

 

 

 

What exactly is a "viable market proposition" for you then? China has 421,000 electric buses already. I've been doing a 110km daily commute for the last 18 months in a car that's four years obsolete, which cost me roughly as much as my colleagues spend on their ICE vehicles.

 

If your new car budget is $2000 - and believe me, I've been there - then no, an EV is not for you. But neither is any vehicle that's not old enough to vote & drink on its own.

 

 

Its for the public not necessarily for me. So, if a car, say brand new, of a certain size, (small, medium, large)and brand (average brand say Toyota, Honda, Hyundai etc)  has an EV and ICE versions, the EV can be more costly but not too much. the EV benefit is fuel savings, but they wont want an EV that saves fuel costs that cost $32000 extra to do it. They can wait till there are second hand EV's if they cannot afford new cars, so the second hand ICE and its EV equivalent, happy to pay more for the EV as can save fuel costs. But not a lot more. The issue with these is old battery, less range, one day it needs to be replaced

 

Thats the viability. While some have and some will, the masses will not look at a 40k car and pay 72k for the EV to reduce emissions by one car at 10000km per year, and own a car that costs more to own than the ICE. The prices have to be close enough to be a better buy. At todays prices its like solar, it takes way too long to recover the cost let alone save anything

 

Those buses are viable, they save money, big money. An old EV, say a 15k Leaf is a cheap car, so thats easy to justify as the fuel savings are the same as if it was the $60k Leaf (near enough) But you paid 15k to save the money, not 60k. Allowing for being new, a Leaf should be 35k, as its just a base car.


 
 
 
 


NzBeagle
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  #2327717 1-Oct-2019 13:47
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SaltyNZ:

 

What exactly is a "viable market proposition" for you then? China has 421,000 electric buses already. I've been doing a 110km daily commute for the last 18 months in a car that's four years obsolete, which cost me roughly as much as my colleagues spend on their ICE vehicles.

 

 

And once they're NZ ready / distributed, I reckon we'll see proliferation.


wellygary
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  #2327723 1-Oct-2019 14:00
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SaltyNZ:

 

tdgeek:

 

I feel Heavy vehicles will come thick and fast once viable market propositions are easily accessible. For these buses, if they're at least 2 years away, they'll ramp up fairly quickly beyond that.

 

Thats the main thing holding all EV's back. It needs to be viable for you and me and a business to buy one.

 

 

What exactly is a "viable market proposition" for you then? China has 421,000 electric buses already. I've been doing a 110km daily commute for the last 18 months in a car that's four years obsolete, which cost me roughly as much as my colleagues spend on their ICE vehicles.

 

 

something we don't have yet .....

 

from an article about Christchurch buying 2 E-buses in January 2019...

 

"RedBus's McNoe said each of their new buses cost about $750,000 – about twice the price of the equivalent low-emissions diesel. RedBus had some financial support from regional council Environment Canterbury (ECan) and the Christchurch Agency for Energy Trust to buy them. 

 

He said there were some operational benefits – the running costs were expected to be about 40 per cent lower – but that was not enough to offset the capital cost. BloombergNEF has predicted prices for electric buses will reach parity with diesel buses in 2030. "

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113790113/economics-vs-environment-the-battle-for-the-electric-bus

 

-If the government truly believes that climate change is the No 1 threat, then it should simply tell NZTA not to fund local public transport agencies to enter into any new contracts provided by diesel buses, and then provide enough funding for electric buses to be the only acceptable solution for new buses entering service.... so far all I've heard are crickets.....


NzBeagle
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  #2327726 1-Oct-2019 14:06
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wellygary:

 

-If the government truly believes that climate change is the No 1 threat, then it should simply tell NZTA not to fund local public transport agencies to enter into any new contracts provided by diesel buses, and then provide enough funding for electric buses to be the only acceptable solution for new buses entering service.... so far all I've heard are crickets.....

 

 

There is already an avenue for this, which a number of businesses have engaged with. It's exploratory level in some cases, but successful fleets in others.
Proposals can be made to EECA


SaltyNZ
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  #2327745 1-Oct-2019 14:24
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wellygary:

 

-If the government truly believes that climate change is the No 1 threat, then it should simply tell NZTA not to fund local public transport agencies to enter into any new contracts provided by diesel buses, and then provide enough funding for electric buses to be the only acceptable solution for new buses entering service.... so far all I've heard are crickets.....

 

 

 

 

Which was just one of the many fails I noted in my submission on the Clean Car proposal. Still it could be worse. At least the Koch brothers reach here is limited.





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wellygary
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  #2327766 1-Oct-2019 14:37
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NzBeagle:

 

There is already an avenue for this, which a number of businesses have engaged with. It's exploratory level in some cases, but successful fleets in others. Proposals can be made to EECA

 

 

The EECA low emission contestable fund is but a drip in the ocean thou, its around $7 million a year,  so that's 10 urban Electric buses per year...

 

Ironically, its paid for out of everyone's  power bill, (not from central government or petrol users) - also it was created by the previous government, -at the same time they excluded RUC from EVs....


 
 
 
 


kingdragonfly
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  #2327774 1-Oct-2019 14:53
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SaltyNZ: At least the Koch brothers reach here is limited.



There are occasions when I wish there was a literal hell.

Only one of the 4 is dead. Show the benefits to eating human babies for lengthening a lifespan.

PolicyGuy
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  #2327847 1-Oct-2019 15:58
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SaltyNZ:

 

China has 421,000 electric buses already.


And they're building tens of thousands (~75,000 IIRC) a year

 

wellygary:
from an article about Christchurch buying 2 E-buses in January 2019...

 

"RedBus's McNoe said each of their new buses cost about $750,000 – about twice the price of the equivalent low-emissions diesel.

 

There is something badly wrong with this picture

 

  • BEV buses cost $NZ750,000 each.
  • The Chinese are building hundreds a week, every week.
    Not at three-quarters of a million dollars each, they aren't

Why are NZ buses so expensive?
Is someone telling porkies? Is someone trying to amortise the R&D costs of independently designing BEV buses over the first ten units? Is someone hoping to make enormous rip-off margins selling BEV buses to dumb ol' Kiwis?

 

What the hell is happening?


wellygary
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  #2327854 1-Oct-2019 16:27
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PolicyGuy:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

China has 421,000 electric buses already.


And they're building tens of thousands (~75,000 IIRC) a year

 

wellygary:
from an article about Christchurch buying 2 E-buses in January 2019...

 

"RedBus's McNoe said each of their new buses cost about $750,000 – about twice the price of the equivalent low-emissions diesel.

 

There is something badly wrong with this picture

 

  • BEV buses cost $NZ750,000 each.
  • The Chinese are building hundreds a week, every week.
    Not at three-quarters of a million dollars each, they aren't

Why are NZ buses so expensive?
Is someone telling porkies? Is someone trying to amortise the R&D costs of independently designing BEV buses over the first ten units? Is someone hoping to make enormous rip-off margins selling BEV buses to dumb ol' Kiwis?

 

What the hell is happening?

 

 

The Chinese government has been handing out *HUGE* subsidies to electrify the bus fleet (urban pollution is a big political problem)

 

"one bus costs around 1.8 million yuan (£208,000) – Shenzhen was able to go all-electric thanks to generous subsidies from both central and local government.

 

“Typically, more than half of the cost of the bus is subsidised by government,” says Ma. “In terms of operation there is another subsidy:if we run our buses for a distance of more than 60,000km we receive just under 500,000 yuan [£58,000] from local government.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/dec/12/silence-shenzhen-world-first-electric-bus-fleet

 

Granted ~400K is not 750K, but I'm guessing export specifications are more expensive, + we will be buying pitiful numbers and paying list, as opposed to walking in and saying I want 500  and getting a better price....

 

 


Linuxluver

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  #2327948 1-Oct-2019 18:03
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wellygary:

The Chinese government has been handing out *HUGE* subsidies to electrify the bus fleet (urban pollution is a big political problem)


"one bus costs around 1.8 million yuan (£208,000) – Shenzhen was able to go all-electric thanks to generous subsidies from both central and local government.


“Typically, more than half of the cost of the bus is subsidised by government,” says Ma. “In terms of operation there is another subsidy:if we run our buses for a distance of more than 60,000km we receive just under 500,000 yuan [£58,000] from local government.”


https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/dec/12/silence-shenzhen-world-first-electric-bus-fleet


Granted ~400K is not 750K, but I'm guessing export specifications are more expensive, + we will be buying pitiful numbers and paying list, as opposed to walking in and saying I want 500  and getting a better price....


 



It's worth keeping in mind that almost all the factors in the production of the Chinese buses are made domestically in China. This free the government enormously to just print money to pay for it. There is likely very little forex involved.

Because we make very little here in NZ we have to earn money in the world to pay for stuff we import. Muldoon tried to address this and was dumped fairly quickly. Looking at it now (all his faults aside) that approach would likely have served NZ best in the long run.




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tdgeek
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  #2327977 1-Oct-2019 19:44
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wellygary:

 

 

 

Granted ~400K is not 750K, but I'm guessing export specifications are more expensive, + we will be buying pitiful numbers and paying list, as opposed to walking in and saying I want 500  and getting a better price....

 

 

 

 

Exactly. To us, 2 buses is cool, lets buy more, but its hardly a bulk discount. No issue for me, as NZ offers other benefits than a sardine can population


kingdragonfly
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  #2328075 1-Oct-2019 21:14
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I posted that video a couple of pages back :)

You're right it's a good video, and an eye opener.

tdgeek
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  #2328079 1-Oct-2019 21:23
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Coon:

 

i just watched this video today

 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/electric-buses-are-taking-over-china-and-the-us-is-trying-to-catch-up.html

 

mirror: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wWJW4WJzd0

 

 

Cool, but the last sentence, zero carbon transmission system as well. Not if they fire the charges by coal.

 

NYC is not that big. To move the buses to electric will take 21 years. A weak target.


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