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  # 2349602 7-Nov-2019 17:58
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Linuxluver: The Tesla ute is bring announced / revealed in LA on November 21st.

https://electrek.co/2019/11/06/tesla-cybertruck-pickup-unveil-date-nov-21-la/

 

 

 

It's going to need to be a lot cheaper than their cars before it gets much traction here and in Australia I would think.








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  # 2349603 7-Nov-2019 18:01
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Geektastic:

Linuxluver: The Tesla ute is bring announced / revealed in LA on November 21st.

https://electrek.co/2019/11/06/tesla-cybertruck-pickup-unveil-date-nov-21-la/


 


It's going to need to be a lot cheaper than their cars before it gets much traction here and in Australia I would think.



How cheap? I'm seeing double-cab utes for $80K on Great South Road. The fuel savings alone would be HUGE.




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  # 2349652 7-Nov-2019 18:44
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Linuxluver:
Geektastic:

Linuxluver: The Tesla ute is bring announced / revealed in LA on November 21st.

https://electrek.co/2019/11/06/tesla-cybertruck-pickup-unveil-date-nov-21-la/


 


It's going to need to be a lot cheaper than their cars before it gets much traction here and in Australia I would think.



How cheap? I'm seeing double-cab utes for $80K on Great South Road. The fuel savings alone would be HUGE.


But they are the very small minority of utes.

The largest percentage of utes sold in NZ are base model, 4WD used on farms, building sites etc. Most of the farmers I know usually replace the Ute once it has broken. One person I know still has a 15 year old Navara that has done 350,000km still with the original engine, transmission and electrics, all the repairs and servicing are done on the farm. I would guess at least 200,000km were done nowhere near a road.

When an electric ute can meet that reliability (likely) and repairability (seriously have reservations there) they will be accepted.

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  # 2349725 7-Nov-2019 19:44
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empacher48:

When an electric ute can meet that reliability (likely) and repairability (seriously have reservations there) they will be accepted.

 

 

 

Why would you think an electric ute would be less repairable than an ICE ute? An electric car drivetrain has about 2 moving parts in it: the balanced rotor on sealed bearings that will last the life of the vehicle if not longer, and a fixed reduction gear so the 20,000 rpm motor can feed the 3,000 rpm wheels. Battery replacement is only awkward because they're heavy. Apart from that it's not a lot more complicated than replacing the battery in your laptop provided you've got the tool to pair the new battery with the car, and even that might not necessarily be required for all vehicles.

 

So that's the electric part - and everything else is basically the same as any other ute. So ... why would it not be orders of magnitude more repairable?





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  # 2349746 7-Nov-2019 20:04
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SaltyNZ:

empacher48:

When an electric ute can meet that reliability (likely) and repairability (seriously have reservations there) they will be accepted.


 


Why would you think an electric ute would be less repairable than an ICE ute? An electric car drivetrain has about 2 moving parts in it: the balanced rotor on sealed bearings that will last the life of the vehicle if not longer, and a fixed reduction gear so the 20,000 rpm motor can feed the 3,000 rpm wheels. Battery replacement is only awkward because they're heavy. Apart from that it's not a lot more complicated than replacing the battery in your laptop provided you've got the tool to pair the new battery with the car, and even that might not necessarily be required for all vehicles.


So that's the electric part - and everything else is basically the same as any other ute. So ... why would it not be orders of magnitude more repairable?



I guess I’m getting at, could you carry the replacement battery pack on the back of the Ute? Then replace it in the shed yourself? The only farmers I know personally live at least 300km from a dealer, crossing half a dozen river braids, if the vehicle can’t make that trip it is left to rot and a replacement is purchased. As mentioned these guys tend to buy a vehicle every 20 years and 400,000km for $30K. Anything more expensive or can’t last that long time is an unnecessary expense. I’m not sure how long batteries are supposed to last? But knowing the Navara, it hasn’t needed any overhaul of the engine or transmission in 350,000km. If a battery can’t keep 100% charge for that long, these guys are not interested at all.

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  # 2349757 7-Nov-2019 20:21
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Ok, I see what you’re getting at. No, a battery isn’t going to maintain 100% charge for 20 years. Obviously. But it’ll probably make 50% in 10 years and that would get you on the order of 150km for the big batteries you’ll get in a ute. Not the 300km you’re talking about, but on the other hand there are going to be very few farmers in the whole country who actually, really need to drive 300km one way through non-stop bush on a regular basis.

 

In 20 years time they’re likely going to find their non-EV options to be extremely limited: all bets currently point to lithium battery prices falling enough to make EV sticker price cheaper than ICE in about 5 years. Once that happens they’re going to die off pretty quick, so the economies of scale will not favour cheap ICE utes in 2040. Nor is there likely to be much in the way of a retail market for fuel, either, without a million cars constantly requiring it.





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  # 2349760 7-Nov-2019 20:25
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empacher48:

I guess I’m getting at, could you carry the replacement battery pack on the back of the Ute? Then replace it in the shed yourself? The only farmers I know personally live at least 300km from a dealer, crossing half a dozen river braids, if the vehicle can’t make that trip it is left to rot and a replacement is purchased. As mentioned these guys tend to buy a vehicle every 20 years and 400,000km for $30K. Anything more expensive or can’t last that long time is an unnecessary expense. I’m not sure how long batteries are supposed to last? But knowing the Navara, it hasn’t needed any overhaul of the engine or transmission in 350,000km. If a battery can’t keep 100% charge for that long, these guys are not interested at all.

 

The battery pack should be fine for the life of the vehicle - plenty of Tesla's in the US and EU have done over 400k km's on a single battery pack and still have over 90% of the capacity. An electric vehicle could be more suitable for offroading than a traditional ICE vehicles as EVs don't need to breathe. Seal everything up and you don't have to worry about water damage. They're also bottom heavy so less likely to roll.


 
 
 
 


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  # 2349763 7-Nov-2019 20:34
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SaltyNZ:

 

Ok, I see what you’re getting at. No, a battery isn’t going to maintain 100% charge for 20 years. Obviously. But it’ll probably make 50% in 10 years and that would get you on the order of 150km for the big batteries you’ll get in a ute. Not the 300km you’re talking about, but on the other hand there are going to be very few farmers in the whole country who actually, really need to drive 300km one way through non-stop bush on a regular basis.

 

In 20 years time they’re likely going to find their non-EV options to be extremely limited: all bets currently point to lithium battery prices falling enough to make EV sticker price cheaper than ICE in about 5 years. Once that happens they’re going to die off pretty quick, so the economies of scale will not favour cheap ICE utes in 2040. Nor is there likely to be much in the way of a retail market for fuel, either, without a million cars constantly requiring it.

 

 

Obraik:

 

The battery pack should be fine for the life of the vehicle - plenty of Tesla's in the US and EU have done over 400k km's on a single battery pack and still have over 90% of the capacity. An electric vehicle could be more suitable for offroading than a traditional ICE vehicles as EVs don't need to breathe. Seal everything up and you don't have to worry about water damage. They're also bottom heavy so less likely to roll.

 

 

I do agree that the future is electric and they will have to adapt, like all of us will. I know my career will be over if there isn't a way to find an alternative to fossil fuels. I'm just hoping that either I'll be retired, or the regulators will have woken up to the new realities before then.

 

I guess the current EV utes are being built for those people we see on the motorways, driving a fully accessorised Ranger or Colorado, to which the owner would never ever want to do something completely ridiculous like tow, or heaven forbid, drive off the tar seal. Against what I think a ute is for, which is taking the supplies up to the Top Hut before the Autumn muster, because it takes too long to do it on horseback, or taking the dead ewe back to the offal pit.


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  # 2349783 7-Nov-2019 21:05
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empacher48:

 

I do agree that the future is electric and they will have to adapt, like all of us will. I know my career will be over if there isn't a way to find an alternative to fossil fuels. I'm just hoping that either I'll be retired, or the regulators will have woken up to the new realities before then.

 

I guess the current EV utes are being built for those people we see on the motorways, driving a fully accessorised Ranger or Colorado, to which the owner would never ever want to do something completely ridiculous like tow, or heaven forbid, drive off the tar seal. Against what I think a ute is for, which is taking the supplies up to the Top Hut before the Autumn muster, because it takes too long to do it on horseback, or taking the dead ewe back to the offal pit.

 

 

Have you looked at Rivian?


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  # 2349867 7-Nov-2019 22:53
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Speaking of Rivian...


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  # 2349944 8-Nov-2019 07:39
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Obraik:

 

Have you looked at Rivian?

 

 

 

 

Or Bollinger? (Although to be fair I heard initial pricing for those the other day and let's just say it won't fit into the "brand new ute for $30K" bracket.)





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Geek


  # 2349983 8-Nov-2019 08:28
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Obraik:

 

empacher48:

I guess I’m getting at, could you carry the replacement battery pack on the back of the Ute? Then replace it in the shed yourself? The only farmers I know personally live at least 300km from a dealer, crossing half a dozen river braids, if the vehicle can’t make that trip it is left to rot and a replacement is purchased. As mentioned these guys tend to buy a vehicle every 20 years and 400,000km for $30K. Anything more expensive or can’t last that long time is an unnecessary expense. I’m not sure how long batteries are supposed to last? But knowing the Navara, it hasn’t needed any overhaul of the engine or transmission in 350,000km. If a battery can’t keep 100% charge for that long, these guys are not interested at all.

 

The battery pack should be fine for the life of the vehicle - plenty of Tesla's in the US and EU have done over 400k km's on a single battery pack and still have over 90% of the capacity. An electric vehicle could be more suitable for offroading than a traditional ICE vehicles as EVs don't need to breathe. Seal everything up and you don't have to worry about water damage. They're also bottom heavy so less likely to roll.

 

 

For a farmer it comes down to how much work the vehicle can do in a day, not how far it can travel. A lot depends on the type of farm as well - dairy, well that's just flat land and quite small, whereas high-country sheep is a lot of driving up and down hills so chews through a lot of petrol/energy over a short space of time.

 

I think in the next 20 years ICE vehicles will become the equivalent of today's EV's - high cost and probably subsidised by the government (no way I hear you say). The reason I say this is because of the farming, forestry, earthworks and similar industries. For now lets ignore aviation and the armed forces (surely the yanks are working on nuclear powered tanks)

 

Farmer - buys a nice new tractor and leaves it out on a back block to do a large project. Drives to site in their ute. Tractor cannot be battery as its going to be used out there constantly for the next 6 weeks and only goes back to the farmhouse to fill up with diesel than back to work......or a diesel tank is taken out to site.

 

Forestry/Earthworks - digger, loader, scrapers, etc all sit on site for the life of the project. Diesel is taken to site. During summer a scraper could be working 12 hours a day, so there is no way an EV equivalent could keep up with this.....at the moment.

 

So for these industries they shall continue to need diesel or similar

 

While battery trucks are coming, these are designed for highway use so fairly easy to manage the power consumption. A digger on a work site is totally different. I see there are electric dump trucks in mines now, but once again a very confined work site and easy to manage. Since you're already spending millions on infrastructure for the mine, building extra power access is relatively minor to add on.....cant really do that on a farm/forest.


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  # 2349989 8-Nov-2019 08:35
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Grunta47:

 

 

 

For a farmer it comes down to how much work the vehicle can do in a day, not how far it can travel. A lot depends on the type of farm as well - dairy, well that's just flat land and quite small, whereas high-country sheep is a lot of driving up and down hills so chews through a lot of petrol/energy over a short space of time.

 

I think in the next 20 years ICE vehicles will become the equivalent of today's EV's - high cost and probably subsidised by the government (no way I hear you say). The reason I say this is because of the farming, forestry, earthworks and similar industries. For now lets ignore aviation and the armed forces (surely the yanks are working on nuclear powered tanks)

 

Farmer - buys a nice new tractor and leaves it out on a back block to do a large project. Drives to site in their ute. Tractor cannot be battery as its going to be used out there constantly for the next 6 weeks and only goes back to the farmhouse to fill up with diesel than back to work......or a diesel tank is taken out to site.

 

Forestry/Earthworks - digger, loader, scrapers, etc all sit on site for the life of the project. Diesel is taken to site. During summer a scraper could be working 12 hours a day, so there is no way an EV equivalent could keep up with this.....at the moment.

 

So for these industries they shall continue to need diesel or similar

 

While battery trucks are coming, these are designed for highway use so fairly easy to manage the power consumption. A digger on a work site is totally different. I see there are electric dump trucks in mines now, but once again a very confined work site and easy to manage. Since you're already spending millions on infrastructure for the mine, building extra power access is relatively minor to add on.....cant really do that on a farm/forest.

 

 

Agree, there is no need for everything to go electric. There is nothing wrong with CO2 emissions, we actually need them, we need greenhouse gases. We just need to get rid of the excess that nature cannot recycle


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  # 2350101 8-Nov-2019 11:05
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Grunta47:

 

For a farmer it comes down to how much work the vehicle can do in a day, not how far it can travel. A lot depends on the type of farm as well - dairy, well that's just flat land and quite small, whereas high-country sheep is a lot of driving up and down hills so chews through a lot of petrol/energy over a short space of time.

 

I think in the next 20 years ICE vehicles will become the equivalent of today's EV's - high cost and probably subsidised by the government (no way I hear you say). The reason I say this is because of the farming, forestry, earthworks and similar industries. For now lets ignore aviation and the armed forces (surely the yanks are working on nuclear powered tanks)

 

Farmer - buys a nice new tractor and leaves it out on a back block to do a large project. Drives to site in their ute. Tractor cannot be battery as its going to be used out there constantly for the next 6 weeks and only goes back to the farmhouse to fill up with diesel than back to work......or a diesel tank is taken out to site.

 

Forestry/Earthworks - digger, loader, scrapers, etc all sit on site for the life of the project. Diesel is taken to site. During summer a scraper could be working 12 hours a day, so there is no way an EV equivalent could keep up with this.....at the moment.

 

So for these industries they shall continue to need diesel or similar

 

While battery trucks are coming, these are designed for highway use so fairly easy to manage the power consumption. A digger on a work site is totally different. I see there are electric dump trucks in mines now, but once again a very confined work site and easy to manage. Since you're already spending millions on infrastructure for the mine, building extra power access is relatively minor to add on.....cant really do that on a farm/forest.

 

 

Yeah, I'm not saying that an EV today or in the next 10 years is going to be the solution to every use case. However, every year, a use case that were previously impractical for an EV becomes practical as the technology moves forward. 

 

I see a solution for the remote tractor/forestry/earthwork arriving over the next decade and it probably won't be that dissimilar to how they solve the problem with diesel machines currently. Rather than taking a tanker of diesel out you'd instead take a shipping container sized battery pack with solar on top. The battery pack charges during the day while the machinery is being used and the machinery charges at night.

 

We don't need to immediately have an EV solution for every use case where diesel/petrol is currently used, it's about doing the easy, high impact stuff first and then covering off the others as the technology develops. Converting road based vehicles to EV is relatively easy but yes, the machinery stuff isn't. CAT has at least started experimenting with EV based machinery 


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